OK -- I have no excuses. My prediction system didn't work in the game that I, as a Bears fan, wanted most. I'd happily trade in my 14 correct predictions in the last (now) 17 years for one this past Sunday.
However, I will say that if any other team was in the Super Bowl other than the Bears I wouldn't be fretting over it. I would be chalking it up to the laws of probability. I call it a prediction system, but what I should really be saying is the system shows which team has the greatest chance of winning. Instead, I called it a prediction so I stand by it. The Bears lost. And so did I.
I did warn of possible problems before the Bears' first playoff game in my Stat of the Week, “What two words are ominous for the Chicago Bears in the postseason?” In my Bears fever, I chose to overlook that point and rarely mentioned it when I talked about the prediction system.
Now I will give you something new to consider. And something I will consider for the future. How important is quarterback experience in the Super Bowl? Rex Grossman came into the game with only 24 games of regular season football under his belt. It turns out that this is a rare situation. Here are some numbers for you:
Number of QBs that have led their team to the Super Bowl with less than 25 games of experience: four.
Number of Super Bowl wins by QBs with less than 25 games of experience: two.
That’s right, there have only been four quarterbacks in the history of the Super Bowl (out of 1,162 teams) that have led their team to the Super Bowl. Two of them did manage to win -- Kurt Warner and Tom Brady. The other two were Vince Ferragamo and, now, Rex Grossman.
It's well known in the NFL that quarterbacks take a while to adjust to the pro game. Even John Elway, who played in five Super Bowls, couldn't win one until his final two seasons as a pro (his 15th and 16th years in the league). In his third Super Bowl -- his third Super Bowl loss -- Elway's stats were anemic (10-26, 108 yards, 0 TDs and 2 Ints). Grossman's stats looked great compared to that (20-28, 165 yards, 1 TD and 2 Ints). Obviously, Grossman's two fumbles hurt as well.
Grossman's inexperience showed in the Super Bowl -- he's only played in those 24 regular season games. The average winning Super Bowl quarterback has 95 games under his belt. Most of Chicago has written him off. I haven't.