Last year we found that the fifth starters for playoff teams were simply .500 pitchers.  This suggested that you didn't need a strong fifth starter in order to succeed.  Let's see if that trend continued in 2005:

If you exclude the four best starters on each Major League team in 2005, the average win-loss record of the remaining starters is 14-21 with a 5.37 ERA. Not very good. For playoff teams, the average is 16-16 with a 4.99 ERA.  That 16-16 record is identical to 2004's 16-16 for fifth starters on playoff teams.  The ERA is close as well with 2004 at 5.25.

Bottom line: To be a contender all you need for your "fifth starters" is .500 pitching.

Here are the numbers for the 2005 playoff teams (starter win-loss records and ERA excluding the top four starters):

 

Chicago White Sox	12-11	4.90	(#10 of the 30 MLB teams)
Los Angels Angels	15-12	4.84	(#9)
New York Yankees	25-27	5.70	(#22)
Boston Red Sox	10-11	5.10	(#12)
Houston Astros	13-16	5.89	(#23)
St. Louis Cardinals	17-10	3.49	(#1)
Atlanta Braves	22-21	4.35	(#2)
San Diego Padres	12-21	5.51	(#19)
Average (playoff team)	16-16	4.99

 

(Top four starters on each team determined as the four pitchers with the lowest opponent OPS among starters with 12+ starts)

 

For those Chicago Cubs fans out there:

Cubs 14-20, 5.24 ERA (#15)

 

The worst two teams?

 

Tampa Bay Devil Rays	11-28	6.80	(#29)
Cincinnati Reds	9-19	7.13	(#30)

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