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Top ten reasonsto like what the Cubs are doing this winter

January 6, 2009

#10—Dollars. Let’s look at the three big recent deals the Cubs have made taken together:

  1. Jason Marquis to the Rockies for reliever Luis Vizcaino. The Cubs rid themselves of $9 million of Marquis' $10 million salary.
  2. Acquired three rookie pitching prospects for infielder Mark DeRosa. The Cubs save $5 million of DeRosa's salary.
  3. ESPN reports that the Cubs and Milton Bradley have agreed to terms on a three-year, $30 million contract.

The Cubs are paying Vizcaino $4 million and Bradley $10 million per year for a total of $14 million. They are saving $9m with Marquis and saving $5m with DeRosa. It’s a push. It's not costing the Cubs a penny.

#9—Three rookie pitchers from the Indians. It’s always good to stock up on good young pitchers; the more the merrier. Young pitching is volatile. The more you have the greater the chance of finding a diamond in the rough.

#8—The aforementioned three pitchers could be added to a Jake Peavy deal.

#7—Milton Bradley may have been a DH for Texas last year, but he can play a decent outfield. He’s played all three outfield positions in the last three years. His plus/minus over that time is zero, meaning he’s an average outfielder; not below average. He'll be fine in right field for the Cubs.

#6—Without Bradley the Cubs would have to play two of these three: Felix Pie, Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome. Pie’s OPS (On Base + Slugging) for next year projects to be .756, Johnson projects to .735, and Fukudome projects to .802. One of the two lineup slots will be replaced by Bradley’s projected .879 OPS, and the Cubs will benefit by adding lots of offense.

#5—Steve Stone (best analyst in baseball—bar none) said Bradley’s numbers were padded in Texas. Sure enough, the Texas ballpark run factor for the last three years is 107 meaning 7% more runs are scored in Texas home games than road games. Wrigley field’s factor is 110 and even BETTER than that of Texas so, while we are projecting less than the .999 OPS Bradley just had in his career year, there should be no drop-off here for Mr. Bradley because of the ballpark.

#4—Before these moves, the Cubs would probably have had one, maybe two, left-handed bats in the lineup (Pie and/or Fukudome) and six or seven righties. Now they’ll have at least three lefties, and possibly as many as four or five with the newly-added utility players making spot starts in Aaron Miles and Joey Gathright—both of whom can swing from the left side. The new lineup will be much more balanced.

The final three reasons to like what the Cubs are doing this winter: Mike Fontenot, Mike Fontenot and Mike Fontenot.

#3—Since Mike Fontenot (age 29) will replace DeRosa (age 34) the Cubs will be younger by five years.

#2—Mike Fontenot’s plus/minus at second base last year was +11, DeRosa’s was -8. The Cubs defense at 2B will improve.

#1—Fontenot’s projected OPS next year is .809. DeRosa’s projected OPS is.783. Fontenot is actually the better hitter!

Keep the faith Cubs fans! It should be a very good year.

 
 

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