Before I do my Stat of the Week™, let me suggest something. Watch 60 Minutes this Sunday night (March 30). Morley Safer and the 60 Minutes crew interviewed Bill James over the course of three days at spring training a couple of weeks ago, and the segment is airing this Sunday. I think it will be fascinating for those of us who are into sabermetrics.
A few years ago we discovered that there is a way to use spring training stats to predict future performance. We took all spring training hitters and found that, as expected, about half of them do better than their career norms in the upcoming season, and about half of them do worse than their career norms. However, when we chose only those players doing exceptionally well in spring training, we found that about three-fourths of them performed better than their career average during the upcoming season.
Our definition of "exceptionally well" was slugging 100 points higher in spring training than their previous career slugging percentage. Here's the list of players who are currently 200 points higher so far this spring training. These 24 players might be heading for above-average seasons.
| Possible Breakout Players |
| (Slugging percentage 200+ points better in spring training) |
| Hitter | Diff. | Spring | Career |
| Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks | .455 | .842 | .387 |
| Mike Morse, Mariners | .389 | .788 | .399 |
| Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers | .370 | .849 | .479 |
| Melvin Mora, Orioles | .345 | .783 | .438 |
| Grady Sizemore, Indians | .333 | .821 | .488 |
| Brian Anderson, White Sox | .308 | .661 | .377 |
| Chris Burke, Diamondbacks | .308 | .685 | .353 |
| Rafael Furcal, Dodgers | .283 | .690 | .407 |
| B.J. Upton, Rays | .269 | .711 | .442 |
| Mike Cameron, Brewers | .269 | .714 | .445 |
| Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies | .266 | .657 | .391 |
| Erick Aybar, Angels | .254 | .549 | .295 |
| Torii Hunter, Angels | .251 | .720 | .469 |
| Curtis Granderson, Tigers | .242 | .735 | .493 |
| Placido Polanco, Tigers | .240 | .656 | .416 |
| Billy Butler, Royals | .231 | .678 | .447 |
| Gerald Laird, Rangers | .228 | .605 | .377 |
| Tony Gwynn, Jr., Brewers | .228 | .543 | .315 |
| Craig Counsell, Brewers | .227 | .574 | .347 |
| Josh Hamilton, Rangers | .226 | .780 | .554 |
| Ryan Shealy, Royals | .217 | .619 | .402 |
| Andre Ethier, Dodgers | .213 | .677 | .464 |
| Robinson Cano, Yankees | .207 | .696 | .489 |
| Ray Durham, Giants | .205 | .641 | .436 |
(minimum 200 career AB and 35 spring AB thru March 25, 2008)
Copyright © 2008 by John Dewan.
Permission to reprint or broadcast this information is granted only if used in conjunction with the following citation: "Used with permission from John Dewan's Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com."