Much has been made of David Ortiz's slow start in 2009. The 33-year-old went 1-for-4 on Wednesday, raising his average to .187. Ortiz's power has also disappeared, with just one home run this year after hitting 23 in only 109 games last year, 35 in 2007 along with a .332 batting average, and a league-leading 54 in 2006.
Is this just a slow start, or is Big Papi on his last legs? The biggest indication of his problem is his strikeout rate. In 2007 and 2008 Ortiz had a strikeout every five-and-a-half at-bats. This year he's well under one strikeout per four at-bats:
| David Ortiz—Strikeout rate |
| Season | At-bats | Strikeouts | AB/K |
| 2007 | 549 | 103 | 5.3 |
| 2008 | 416 | 74 | 5.6 |
| 2009 | 187 | 51 | 3.7 |
Let’s also take a look at his batted ball distribution by type:
| David Ortiz—Distribution of Batted Balls |
| Season | Balls in Play | Grounders | Liners | Fliners | Flies |
| 2007 | 449 | 37% | 11% | 14% | 37% |
| 2008 | 346 | 36% | 8% | 18% | 37% |
| 2009 | 140 | 26% | 9% | 27% | 38% |
Ortiz's flyball rate is nearly identical, and his line drive rate is within his normal range as well. He is hitting 10% fewer groundballs than normal, and those hits are becoming fliners (the classification between line drives and flyballs).
Ordinarily, this would be a good sign. Balls in the air go for hits far more often than groundballs, especially for a power hitter like Ortiz, and they have the potential to turn into extra-base hits. A look at the average distance of each batted ball type tells us a different story:
| David Ortiz—Average Distance (feet) |
| Season | Liners | Fliners | Flies |
| 2007 | 205 | 302 | 310 |
| 2008 | 214 | 296 | 275 |
| 2009 | 158 | 278 | 261 |
Ortiz is hitting more balls in the air, but if distance is any indication, he's not hitting them nearly as hard. His liners, fliners, and flies aren't carrying as much as they used to.
If Big Papi doesn't start hitting the ball more frequently, and when he does hit it, hit it harder, he will never again be the force that twice led Boston to World Series titles.