Well, I thought he was the worst outfielder in baseball.
Nate McLouth had a -40 plus/minus in center field. That means this:
—Take every ball hit in the air anywhere in the vicinity of Nate McLouth when he
played center field
—Replace McLouth with an average center fielder
—The average center fielder would have caught 20 more of them than McLouth did,
allowing a total of 40 fewer bases taken on those 20 caught balls
McLouth's -40 was the worst plus/minus figure for any center fielder in baseball last year. Not only that, it was the worst plus/minus figure for any outfielder in baseball. Not only that, it was the worst plus/minus figure for any player in baseball.
Is he that bad? No, absolutely not. The fact that there are a significant number of managers and coaches that think he's good definitely means something. There are aspects to being a good defensive outfielder that come into play other than catching balls hit in the air. They are lesser aspects, but important ones. I will get into more depth on these in The Fielding Bible—Volume II coming out in February of 2009. For example, we are planning a video review of all McLouth's key fielding plays. But let me touch on a couple of things here.
First, his throwing. While he only had two baserunner kills last year (direct throws to a base or home plate to nab a baserunner), he was the seventh best center fielder in preventing runners from taking an extra base on singles and doubles hit to centerfield.
Second, his Good Plays and Defensive Misplays. The Video Scouts at Baseball Info Solutions have 27 categories of Good Plays and 55 categories of Defensive Misplays. They review every play and decide if a play fits one of those categories. It sounds somewhat subjective, but because of the strict definitions of the categories, it actually becomes quite objective. For example, here's the definition of one of the 55 Defensive Misplays:
"Defensive Misplay Number 38, Failing to Anticipate the Wall: Outfielder goes to the outfield wall, allowing a ball to bounce over his head back toward the infield, allowing a runner or runners to take bases which they might not have been able to take had the fielder turned and played the ball off the wall."
It turns out that this happened to McLouth six times last year, tied for the most in baseball with right fielder Bobby Abreu, and more often than any other center fielder (Aaron Rowand and B.J. Upton were second in CF with five). This is another weakness for McLouth.
Overall, adding the six wall-difficulty plays to his other misplays, McLouth had a total of 24 defensive misplays and one error last season. That total of 25 is the ninth highest among all center fielders on the 30 teams last year. So, despite his low error total, McLouth is more prone to making poor plays in center field than the majority of other center fielders in baseball.
However, his good plays more than make up for the 25 misplays and errors. He had 31 good plays, good for third place among center fielders behind Carlos Gomez of the Twins (33) and B.J. Upton of the Rays (32). This is clearly what managers and coaches who vote for the Gold Gloves were seeing.
Net Plays are good plays minus defensive misplays and errors. McLouth had six more good plays than defensive misplays and errors, or six Net Plays. That was the seventh highest total in baseball among center fielders. Not bad.
All in all, I no longer think of McLouth as the worst center fielder in baseball. It means something that at least some of the managers and coaches think highly of him. And we see that two areas of his defense are above average: his ability to prevent baserunners from advancing on hits and his ability to make a play above and beyond the ordinary. But we also see that, despite this low error total, he has more than his share of defensive misplays. And the most important aspect of playing outfield defense is covering ground, and McLouth struggles here big time.