Los Angeles Angel Francisco Rodriguez, aka K-Rod, is about to break Bobby Thigpen's all-time save record of 57 saves set with the Chicago White Sox in 1990. The record stood for quite a while—over 17 years. Is that because it was easier back then to register saves and now it's gotten tougher?
Nay, nay, I say. The key is in the word "tough." It was actually back in 1990 that we decided that all saves are not created equal. We created definitions and broke them down into Easy saves, Regular saves, and Tough saves. It turns out that Tough saves are beginning to fade away. Just like the toughest of the tough saves that we talked about last week, the Extreme Houdini Save.
A save is considered "tough" when the reliever enters the game with the tying run on base. Between 1974 and 1993 there were no fewer than 386, and as many as 544, tough save opportunities in Major League Baseball (except for the 1981 strike season). Last year there were only 249. What's more, the tough save percentage is dropping off even more. Between 1974 and 1990 the save percentage on tough saves hovered around 50%. The percentage has marched downward steadily since then, until this year it's at its low point of 21%. The main reason is that it's not the closers who are getting the tough save opportunities in the ninth inning nowadays. It's the set-up men who are getting the tough opportunities in the seventh and eighth innings. And then they're taken out of the game for the closer to get the Easy or Regular save in the ninth.
What about K-Rod and Thigpen? Bobby Thigpen had ten tough save opportunities in 1990 and converted eight of them. A superlative job, given that the rest of the league was around 50%. Rodriguez has only been handed the ball in a tough save situation once all year (which he converted). Thigpen had the tougher row to hoe.
It's the Easy save that has really become dominant. A save is considered "Easy" when it occurs after the relief pitcher enters the game with three outs or less remaining and the first batter is not the tying or winning run. The most common situation is the closer coming into the game to start the ninth inning with a two or three run lead. Last year, 2007, there were 781 Easy save opportunities in baseball, the most ever. By comparison, in 1974 there were just 12. Yes, you read it right. Just 12 Easy save opportunities in all of MLB in 1974.
Sources: Baseball Info Solutions and Retrosheet.
P. S. Read more about today's bullpens from Bill James and The Bill James Handbook in a Sports Illustrated article called Relief Pitcher Evaluator.