Those of you who have followed my Stat of the Week work on the radio or here via email and the web probably have seen my Super Bowl prediction system. I've eaten some crow the last two years when the system failed. It was especially discouraging two years ago when the system picked my beloved Chicago Bears to win, and the system failed me. I almost gave it up.
Nevertheless, I'm back. And I learned something last year that I should have known years earlier (see How stupid can I be?). The system I use has twelve indicators, each one taken by itself predicts the Super Bowl winner 55 to 68% of the time. Taken collectively, the indicators have an even better track record. Last year I learned that if a team only has six or seven of the indicators, it's a toss-up. But when a team has eight or more of the twelve indicators, it's golden.
In the 42 previous years of the Super Bowl, one team has been favored with at least 8 out of the 12 indicators 25 times. In those 25 games, the system has a record of 21-4. That's 84 percent of the time. It's not a big sample size, but when something happens 21 out of 25 times, you like to believe it means something.
But let's go a couple of steps further.
There's only been one time in the history of the Super Bowl that a team has gone undefeated in all 12 indicators. Not by coincidence, this also happens to be the only team in the history of football that has gone undefeated for the entire season, the 1972 Miami Dolphins.
How about winning 11 of the indicators? Only four teams in Super Bowl history. Including one of the teams that is often brought up in the same breath as the '72 Dolphins, the 1985 Chicago Bears. My 1985 Chicago Bears. The Super Bowl Shuffle. Walter Payton, the greatest football player in the history of the game. The baddest defense of all time. Da Coach.
The '85 Bears and the other three teams had a record of 4-0.
Here is a complete list of the teams in the Super Bowl with 11 or 12 indicators on their side:
| Team | Final Score in the Super Bowl |
| 1972 Miami Dolphins | 14-7 |
| 1985 Chicago Bears | 46-10 |
| 1994 San Francisco 49ers | 49-26 |
| 1996 Green Bay Packers | 35-21 |
| 2000 Baltimore Ravens | 34-7 |
The average margin of victory for these five teams: 3 touchdowns (21 points)!
I was in my glory after the 2000 Ravens won the Super Bowl. All the conventional media, and the Las Vegas line, were going with the New York Giants. I came out with the system saying the Ravens were going to win easily. And they did.
My 15 minutes of fame quickly ended and I received my comeuppance the last two years.
But here I go again. This year the Super Bowl prediction system gives out 11 of 12 indicators for only the sixth time in Super Bowl history. It's the Pittsburgh Steelers by a landslide. Here is the complete rundown, listed in order of weakest to strongest indicator:
| Category | Winning Percentage | Team with Advantage |
| Rushing Yards | .548 | Steelers |
| Opponent Net Passing Yards | .548 | Steelers |
| Rushing Yards / Attempt | .571 | Steelers |
| Points Scored | .571 | Cardinals |
| Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt | .595 | Steelers |
| Fewer Net Passing Yards | .595 | Steelers |
| Turnover Differential | .595 | Steelers |
| Opponent Rushing Yards | .619 | Steelers |
| Point Differential | .631 | Steelers |
| Regular Season Record | .655 | Steelers |
| Opponent Total Yards / Game | .667 | Steelers |
| Points Allowed | .679 | Steelers |
There are five defensive indicators, four offensive ones, and three based on overall stats. The strongest indicators overall are the defensive ones.