Barry Bonds has passed the 700 home run mark, and with 734 dingers he's moving up on Hank Aaron's all-time record of 755. And now, having just ended the 2006 season, we have another player who has established equal odds to reach the 700 milestone. They may boo him in New York, but even after having "only" launched 35 long ones in 2006, Alex Rodriguez has established himself as a 50-50 chance to become the fourth player to hit 700 home runs.
Here is the list from the Bill James Handbook 2007:
| 700 Home runs |
| (% Chance to Reach Milestone) |
| Player | % Chance |
| Barry Bonds, Giants | Done |
| Alex Rodriguez, Yankees | 50% |
| Albert Pujols, Cardinals | 31% |
| Andruw Jones, Braves | 27% |
| Manny Ramirez, Red Sox | 19% |
| Adam Dunn, Reds | 15% |
| David Ortiz, Red Sox | 13% |
| Ken Griffey, Jr., Reds | 12% |
| Ryan Howard, Phillies | 6% |
| Vladimir Guerrero, Angels | 6% |
At the age of 30, A-Rod has 464 home runs. That's the highest age-30 total of any player in history. . .by a wide margin. The player in second place at age 30 had 438--Ken Griffey Jr. Hank Aaron had 366.