You're the manager of a major league baseball team in 2008 and you have a choice to make. Which of the following situations would you prefer?
- Man on first and third, two outs
- Man on first, one out
- A clean slate—no one on, no outs
Based on all the events that occurred in the 2008 season, we can figure out how many runs scored, on average, in each one of those situations.
Counting every inning and every time within the inning when there was a man on first and third with two outs, .481 runs scored in that inning from that point forward. The value of (a), then, is .481 runs.
For (b), a man on first and one out, .528 runs per inning scored, on average, from that point forward.
For (c), no one on and no one out, .521 runs scored.
The answer is (b). But not by much. I picked these three scenarios because, interestingly, they were all about even. In each of them, the average runs scored was about a half a run. Here is the complete run matrix table for 2008:
| Average runs scored in 2008 based on the base/out situation |
| Base | Outs | | |
| Situation | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| None on | .521 | .279 | .108 |
| Man on first | .900 | .528 | .227 |
| Man on second | 1.150 | .695 | .335 |
| Man on third | 1.499 | .969 | .346 |
| Men on first and second | 1.530 | .919 | .464 |
| Men on first and third | 1.769 | 1.159 | .481 |
| Men on second and third | 2.006 | 1.422 | .589 |
| Bags loaded | 2.306 | 1.586 | .799 |
Source: Bill James Online.