Time for one of our annual favorites. We all hear “spring training means nothing,” and yet teams make huge decisions based on spring training. Which is it?
Research shows we can learn something from spring training. A hitter that has a great spring training often goes on to have a better-than-normal season. In precise statistical terms, a hitter with a positive difference between their spring training slugging percentage and their lifetime slugging percentage of 200 points or more alerts us to a step forward in the coming season.
We analyzed hitters with both a minimum of 200 career regular season at-bats and with a minimum of 35 spring training at-bats (through spring training games of Monday, March 26, 2007) and found 36 players who might be heading for above-average seasons.
| Possible Breakout Players |
| (Slugging percentage 200+ points better in spring training) |
| Hitter | Team | Diff. | Spring | Career |
| Raul Ibanez | Sea | .436 | .905 | .469 |
| Ronny Paulino | Pit | .419 | .814 | .395 |
| Khalil Greene | SD | .386 | .820 | .434 |
| Scott Hairston | Ari | .370 | .800 | .430 |
| Jose Guillen | Sea | .335 | .780 | .445 |
| Greg Dobbs | Phi | .329 | .680 | .351 |
| Brandon Phillips | Cin | .327 | .702 | .375 |
| Derrek Lee | ChC | .304 | .804 | .500 |
| Johnny Estrada | Mil | .295 | .702 | .407 |
| Chase Utley | Phi | .280 | .789 | .509 |
| Reed Johnson | Tor | .280 | .703 | .423 |
| Jason Smith | Tor | .266 | .651 | .385 |
| Lance Niekro | SF | .263 | .692 | .429 |
| Jerry Hairston | Tex | .260 | .622 | .362 |
| Michael Cuddyer | Min | .259 | .714 | .455 |
| Brad Hawpe | Col | .258 | .722 | .464 |
| Milton Bradley | Oak | .255 | .684 | .429 |
| Mike Rivera | Mil | .250 | .625 | .375 |
| Aramis Ramirez | ChC | .243 | .736 | .493 |
| Ramon Vazquez | Tex | .240 | .575 | .335 |
| Cristian Guzman | Was | .237 | .611 | .374 |
| Placido Polanco | Det | .237 | .646 | .409 |
| Timo Perez | Det | .237 | .610 | .373 |
| Sammy Sosa | Tex | .236 | .773 | .537 |
| Ian Kinsler | Tex | .231 | .685 | .454 |
| Garret Anderson | LAA | .224 | .694 | .470 |
| Jose Cruz | SD | .223 | .676 | .453 |
| Vernon Wells | Tor | .222 | .714 | .492 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | SD | .219 | .694 | .475 |
| Orlando Hudson | Ari | .216 | .644 | .428 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | Was | .216 | .695 | .479 |
| Willie Bloomquist | Sea | .215 | .544 | .329 |
| Howie Kendrick | LAA | .211 | .627 | .416 |
| Nick Swisher | Oak | .211 | .679 | .468 |
| Jose Valentin | NYM | .209 | .659 | .450 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | Sea | .202 | .596 | .394 |