A couple of weeks ago we looked at how often hitters protect the plate with two strikes, but we only touched on how effective they are. With Miguel Cabrera on the list of players who don't try to protect, it raised the question that maybe protecting the plate wasn't all that big a deal.
To figure this one out we started by breaking all 2007 regulars into three groups: Top Protectors (players who protect the plate with two strikes), Average Protectors (the middle group), and No Protectors (players who protected the plate with two strikes least often). We then looked at player performance utilizing batting average and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) with two strikes and compared that to performance with less than two strikes. Let's first look at batting average. The batting averages of our three groups with less than two strikes are:
| Top Protectors | .271 |
| Average Protectors | .272 | No Protectors | .257 | |
The batting averages of our three groups with two strikes are:
| Top Protectors | .218 |
| Average Protectors | .214 | No Protectors | .182 | |
The differences:
| Top Protectors | .053 |
| Average Protectors | .058 | No Protectors | .076 | |
When we use batting average as a measure, players who protect the plate perform better than those who don't. The batting average of the Top Protectors drops off the least, by 53 points, while the No Protectors drop off 76 points.
* * *
Now let's look at OPS.
The on-base plus slugging percentages of our three groups with less than two strikes are:
| Top Protectors | .804 |
| Average Protectors | .823 | No Protectors | .837 | |
The on-base plus slugging percentages of our three groups with two strikes are:
| Top Protectors | .633 |
| Average Protectors | .639 | No Protectors | .588 | |
The differences:
| Top Protectors | .171 |
| Average Protectors | .184 | No Protectors | .248 | |
OPS shows an even more significant drop in performance. Top Protectors only drop 171 points compared to 248 points for the No Protectors. Bottom line: It appears that major league players, taken as a group, can improve their performance by protecting the plate with two strikes.
Here are the top and bottom performers with two strikes (relative to their performance with less than two strikes):
These guys actually hit better with two strikes than less than two strikes!
| Hitter | Team | OPS Difference |
| Adam Everett | Astros | -.215 |
| Aramis Ramirez | Cubs | -.085 |
| Mike Sweeney | Royals | -.056 |
| Jimmy Rollins | Phillies | -.050 |
| Placido Polanco | Tigers | -.048 |
| Chris Duffy | Pirates | -.040 |
| Brian Schneider | Nationals | -.029 |
| Luis Castillo | Twins | -.016 |
| Brian McCann | Braves | -.007 |
| David DeJesus | Royals | -.006 |
The performance for these guys drops off considerably when hitting with two strikes:
| Hitter | Team | OPS Difference |
| Vladimir Guerrero | Angels | .538 |
| Hunter Pence | Astros | .491 |
| Justin Morneau | Twins | .472 |
| Garrett Atkins | Rockies | .464 |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | Padres | .453 |
| Matt Stairs | Blue Jays | .449 |
| Jim Thome | White Sox | .445 |
| Adam Dunn | Reds | .433 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | White Sox | .411 |
| Elijah Dukes | Devil Rays | .405 |
Note: All statistics from 2007 regular season through the games of Thursday, July 5, 2007 with a minimum 200 plate appearances.