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Which pitchers are getting support from their offense this year?

August 21, 2007

The second-most important factor for a starting pitcher's win-loss record is run support. His own effectiveness is most important, of course, but how many runs his teams scores for him is a close second.

Historically, this has been an overlooked statistic. Win totals count heavily in Cy Young Award voting, even though so much of a pitcher's record is out of his control. Run support varies widely, even with pitchers on the same team.

Here are the run support leaders and trailers for pitchers with a minimum of 20 games started (through the games of Tuesday, August 21). Let's start with the luckiest starting pitchers.


Most Run Support

Pitcher Run Support per 9 Innings Record
Tim Hudson, Atl 7.10 15-5
Justin Verlander, Det 7.02 13-4
Chien-Ming Wang, NYY 6.96 14-6
Josh Beckett, Bos 6.88 15-5
Andy Pettitte, NYY 6.67 10-7
Roy Halladay, Tor 6.39 14-5
Ted Lilly, ChC 6.38 13-6
Dontrelle Willis, Fla 6.38   8-12
Jeremy Bonderman, Det 6.33 10-6
Felix Hernandez, Sea 6.31  9-6

Not surprisingly, this list is dominated by pitchers from the American League. The American League outscores the National League, 4.9 runs per game to 4.6.

The Yankees even have two pitchers on the list.

Odd to see Dontrelle Willis receiving this much support and still below .500 in winning percentage. He does have the worst ERA (4.91) of the top ten.

Now the flip side of the picture, the unluckiest starting pitchers. Notice the huge difference in run support between these two lists.


Least Run Support

Pitcher Run Support per 9 Innings Record
Rich Hill, ChC 3.24 7-7
Doug Davis, Ari 3.63 10-11
Matt Cain, SF 3.66   5-13
David Wells, SD 3.87 5-8
Matthew Chico, Was 3.94 5-7
Kip Wells, StL 3.94   6-13
Gil Meche, KC 3.99   7-11
Carlos Silva, Min 4.00   9-12
Kyle Lohse, Cin-Phi 4.02   7-12
Chris Capuano, Mil 4.03   5-10

On the other hand, this list is dominated by National League pitchers.

David Wells was recently released by the Padres, though he contributed to his own difficulties by having the worst earned run average (5.54) of this group and he was pitching his home games in an extreme pitcher's park.

The Cubs are the only team with a pitcher on both lists. Rich Hill and Ted Lilly have very similar earned run averages (3.73 vs. 3.88, respectively), but Lilly is receiving nearly twice as much run support as Hill. Their win-loss records could easily be reversed if their run support was reversed. The three other Cubs starters are all receiving at least five runs per game of support, making Hill's 3.2 runs per game all the more amazing.

 
 

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