Over on FanGraphs, writer Paul Swyden writes:
"Right now, [Joe Mauer is] basically in a dead heat with Jorge Posada,and no rational person would conclude that Posada is a Hall of Famer."
To put this quote into fair context, I should note that Mr. Swyden article wasn’t about catchers: it was about which present player would get the next "Derek Jeter World Tour of Rended Garments and Outsider Lego Art" treatment. It’s a fine article, and I’m only bringing up the above quote because it seemed relevant to an article I’ve been working on, and not because Bill’s asked me to pick fights with more popular baseball websites. That’s not it at all. I swear.
Let’s get the ball rolling.
* * *
There are 11 catchers in baseball history who have averaged between 4.0 and 4.9 Wins Above Replacement per 162 games played.
We’re talking about catchers with reasonably long careers here: the Matt Nokes’s of the world need not apply. It’s also worth noting that we’re using the Fan Graphs’ version of WAR (fWAR) for this article.
Eleven catchers, WAR of 4.0-4.9 per 162 game played.
In a lovely bit of synchronicity, there are exactly eleven first baseman who averaged a WAR of 4.0-4.9. And there are exactly eleven second basemen. Actually, let’s run through all the positions:
Catcher – 11 players
First Base – 11 players
Second Base – 11 players
Shortstop – 12 players.
Third Base – 12 players
Right Field – 11 players
Center Field – 14 players
Left Field – 11 players.
All positions have either 11 or 12 players who averaged a WAR between 4.0 and 4.9 per 162 games played, except for centerfield, which is perhaps stealing a few players from the corner outfield positions. But it’s a startlingly even distribution of talent.
A few notes. I went through the list to make sure players weren’t showing up twice. Frank Robinson, for instance, was initially counted among the left- and right-fielders. This happens quite a few times, with players like Stan Musial and Joe Torre and Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera.
Also: I’ve included active players in our conversation: players like Utley and Mauer and Jeter. Active players with enough games to have already had full careers.
So that’s the 4.0-4.9 WAR players. I’d note, too, that the players in this group are all very goodplayers; players who have traditionally merited serious consideration for the Hall-of-Fame. Not all of them have been elected to Cooperstown, but many of them have. It’s nearly a 50-50 split…if you average 4.0 WAR per 162-games played, you’re a coin-toss for a plaque in Cooperstown.
* * *
I’ll take a minute to explain the ‘per 162-games’ thing. This is an article about catchers, who have shorter-than-normal careers, for all the reasons you can anticipate. To consider the ‘greatness’ of catchers against the careers of their peers, it was necessary to consider a metric that didn’t rely on longevity. Jorge Posada played 1000 fewer games than Rafael Palmeiro (1828 to 2831), but their value per 162-games was, at least according to WAR, just about the same (3.979 to 4.006).
* * *
Here’s the same count, considering players with a WAR/162 of 5.0 to 5.99:
Catcher – 6 players
First Base – 5 players
Second Base – 3 players
Shortstop – 4 players.
Third Base – 8 players
Right Field – 6 players
Center Field – 3 players
Left Field – 5 players.
There are forty players in total, distributed across the positions a bit less evenly than the 4.0-4.9 players. The centerfielders, who had the most players in the last grouping, have the fewest here. The catchers do pretty well: tying the right-fielders for second in the group.
These are mostly Hall-of-Fame players, and players who have been tragically overlooked by the Hall: players like Bobby Grich and Edgar Martinez and Reggie Smith and Bobby Bonds.
We’re still looking at a very even distribution of players:
WAR/162
|
C
|
1B
|
2B
|
SS
|
3B
|
RF
|
CF
|
LF
|
5.0-5.9
|
6
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
8
|
6
|
3
|
5
|
4.0-4.9
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
12
|
12
|
11
|
14
|
11
|
4.0-5.9
|
17
|
16
|
14
|
16
|
20
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
The second basemen are a little behind the other positions….let’s remember that.
* * *
Here are the 6.0-6.9 players. We’re entering elite territory here, so we can name names:
Jeff Bagwell, Joe Morgan, Joe Gordon, Chase Utley, Jackie Robinson, Nap Lajoie, Eddie Collins, Lou Boudreau, Arky Vaughan, Eddie Mathews, Home Run Baker, Hank Aaron, Mel Ott, Frank Robinson, Stan Musial.
Notice anything? There’s a lot of second baseman. The position that was behind in our last count gains a lot of ground.
WAR/162
|
C
|
1B
|
2B
|
SS
|
3B
|
RF
|
CF
|
LF
|
6.0-6.9
|
0
|
1
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
I suppose that Joe Gordon is a bit of a surprise, but he was a great player who a) suffered in a tough park for right-handed hitters and b) lost two of his prime seasons to World War II.
We can check in on the positional distribution again:
WAR/162
|
C
|
1B
|
2B
|
SS
|
3B
|
RF
|
CF
|
LF
|
6.0-6.9
|
0
|
1
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
5.0-5.9
|
6
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
8
|
6
|
3
|
5
|
4.0-4.9
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
12
|
12
|
11
|
14
|
11
|
4.0-6.9
|
17
|
17
|
20
|
18
|
22
|
20
|
17
|
17
|
Nice. We still have an even distribution of talent.
* * *
Taking a break, for a moment. Let’s go back to that quote from Paul Swyden:
"Right now, [Joe Mauer is] basically in a dead heat with Jorge Posada,and no rational person would conclude that Posada is a Hall of Famer."
What do we know about Jorge Posada? He was a pretty good hitting catcher, and a decent defensive catcher. He had a pretty long career. He played on a very successful team: he was the catcher for one of the best teams in baseball history. He was a one-team player…a Yankee lifer.
We can go into more specifics. Posada ranks 25th in games caught. His triple-slash line of .273/.374/.474 suggests a very competent hitter (that’s almost exactly the same as Dwight Evans’ .272/.370/.470 career batting line). Posada’s team made the postseason in fifteen of his seventeen seasons. He was the catcher for six World Series teams, winning four rings.
Is it true that no rational person could imagine Jorge Posada as a Hall of Famer?
Viewed historically, this is absolutely untrue. Viewed historically, a player with this resume would certainly receive strong consideration for the Hall of Fame. Bill Dickey is a logical comparable: while Dickey’s counting stats are more impressive, he shares Posada’s excellent team success. He was elected to the Hall. Gabby Hartnett, perhaps the closest comparable to Posada (Hartnett played and lost four World Series meetings), was elected by the BBWAA.
Of course, these are players elected at a different time. Bill Dickey was elected because he had a .313 lifetime batting average. Gabby Hartnett was elected because people who elected him were, as Bill’s noted, ‘obsessed with the idea of strength up the middle.’
Would a modern person, viewing Posada’s career through the lens of modern statistics, view Posada as a viable Hall-of-Famer?
We’ll come back to that.
* * *
Let’s get back to our countdown. We had this distribution of players:
WAR/162
|
C
|
1B
|
2B
|
SS
|
3B
|
RF
|
CF
|
LF
|
6.0-6.9
|
0
|
1
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
5.0-5.9
|
6
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
8
|
6
|
3
|
5
|
4.0-4.9
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
12
|
12
|
11
|
14
|
11
|
4.0-6.9
|
17
|
17
|
20
|
18
|
22
|
20
|
17
|
17
|
If those 6.0+ players were the elites, we’re into super-elite territory now. Here are the 7.0-7.9 players. I bet you’ve heard of them.
Albert Pujols, Hank Greenberg, Jimmie Foxx, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Schmidt, Tris Speaker, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, and Joe Jackson.
By position:
WAR/162
|
C
|
1B
|
2B
|
SS
|
3B
|
RF
|
CF
|
LF
|
7.0-7.9
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
1
|
We’re counting A-Rod as a shortstop. While there are no second baseman or right-fielders listed, it’s worth noting that the three players closest to the 7.0 threshold were Eddie Collins (6.9), Nap Lajoie (6.9) and Stan Musial (6.8)…two 2B’s and a RF/LF/1B.
How about 8.0-8.9? Rare air.
Lou Gehrig, Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds.
9.0-9.9?
Rogers Hornsby. Ted Williams.
10.0+?
Babe Ruth.
Let’s get the 6.0’s, 7.0’s, 8.0’s, 9.0’s, and 10.0’s together:
WAR/162
|
C
|
1B
|
2B
|
SS
|
3B
|
RF
|
CF
|
LF
|
10.0+
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
9.0+
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
8.0+
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
7.0+
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
1
|
6.0+
|
0
|
1
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
Totals
|
0
|
4
|
7
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
Thirty-one players have average a WAR of 6.0 or better in their major-league careers, including an impressive seven second baseman.
None of them are catchers.
* * *
By WAR/162 games, the best catcher of all-time is Johnny Bench.
Actually…that’s not exactly true. Joe Mauer is currently a few decimals ahead of Johnny Bench (5.74 to 5.62), but his career is still going along. Let’s stick with Johnny Bench for a moment.
I suppose all of you know about Johnny Bench. He was a terrific hitter: he had one year when he hit 45 homers, knocked in 148 RBI’s. He was twenty-two years old that year. A few years later he hit 40 homers, 128 RBI. These seasons happened when pitching had recently dominated baseball, and people were flabbergasted by it.
Bench was a great hitter. He was also a brilliant defensive player: he had a cannon for an arm. He was a central cog on one of the greatest teams in baseball history.
There’s no knock to Bench’s career: he was an absolutely dominant offensive player, and a terrific defensive player. His teams won lots of games; his individual accomplishments seemed to have a direct correlation to his team’s success. He was the perfect catcher.
Here are the players, by position, that Johnny Bench most compares to:
Pos.
|
Name
|
WAR/162
|
Rank in Position
|
C
|
Johnny Bench
|
5.6
|
1st
|
1B
|
Dick Allen
|
5.7
|
8th
|
2B
|
Charlie Gehringer
|
5.5
|
9th
|
SS
|
Joe Cronin
|
5.1
|
5th
|
3B
|
Scott Rolen
|
5.6
|
6th
|
RF
|
Larry Walker
|
5.6
|
5th
|
CF
|
Larry Doby
|
5.1
|
6th
|
LF
|
Rickey Henderson
|
5.7
|
6th
|
This is not an impressive list. It’s certainly a good list….Rickey Henderson was one of the smartest baseball players of all-time, and all of the others are worthy Hall-of-Famers. But none of them are serious contenders as the best players at their respective positions. Dick Allen wasn’t close to Gehrig or Foxx or Pujols. Larry Walker is ranked 5th among right-fielders, but he’s not close to Ruth or Aaron. Even Rickey doesn’t quite approach the likes of Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, or Stan Musial.
This seems strange to me. Even if you don’t think Bench is the #1 catcher of all-time…even if you’re partial to Yogi Berra or Josh Gibson…you’d concede that it’s not irrational for other people to believe that Bench is the greatest catcher ever.
Is it rational, then, that a strong candidate for the title of greatest catcher of all-time has a per-162 game rate that’s so far below the best players at every other position on the diamond? Is it rational to believe that there have been no really great catchers in major league history?
Or is something wrong with WAR?
* * *
Taking a step back: have you even thought about how much hardera catcher has to work than everyone else on a baseball team?
Just thinking about the game on the field. On a busy day, a shortstop might have to make a dozen plays in the field. A centerfielder might have to make ten plays. On an average day, a catcher has to make hundreds of plays. He has to make a play (or try to make a play) on every single pitch. Further: he has to make those hundreds of plays from an uncomfortable crouch, wearing a bunch of body armor and squinting through the grill of a mask.
While the other defensive positions are mostly reactionary (a fielder ‘reacts’ to a ball being hit their way), the catcher has to think before the ball is in play. They have to think what pitchers are working that day, and they have to flash a multitude of signs to the pitcher. They have to keep an eye on base runners, and they have to placate the umpire when Jon Lester does his death-stare when a close pitch is called a ball. They have to remember what the new rule is about blocking the plate, and they have to make sure the runner coming around third knows the new rule, too. They have to worry about Manny Machado’s back-swing.
Catchers do a lot: they are the only offensive players involved in every single pitchwhen their team is on defense.
I’ve never liked putting catchers on the defensive spectrum, because their job seems so drastically different than the other defensive positions. The worst defensive player in baseball could play shortstop for a day, and not totally sink his team’s chances of winning. He might allow eight or ten more hits than an average shortstop. Put him behind the plate, though, and you’ll lose. He might not survive the game.
* * *
I think there is something wrong with WAR: I think it’s underrating catchers significantly. It seems strange that someone like Johnny Bench, the closest we’ve seen to a ‘perfect catcher’, would rate so low on a per-game basis.
This is a problem. It’s a problem because it gives space for a good writer on an intelligent baseball site to label Jorge Posada’s candidacy for the Hall-of-Fame ‘irrational.’ Jorge Posada has the 14th highest career WAR of any catcher in baseball. If you cut out half-time catchers like Torre, Tenace, and Downing, Posada ranks 11th in career WAR. Considering that Posada’s teams won big just about every year he played, and it sure seems that Posada’s case for Cooperstown isn’t just rational, but reasonably strong.
It’s a problem, too, when a good writer on a great baseball site can write that a player like Joe Mauer "definitely needs a few more productive seasons to be in the Hall of Fame conversation." According to WAR, Joe Mauer hasn’t just been good: he’s been the most valuable catcher in baseball history. His WAR of 5.7 per 162 games played outstrips all other backstops. The only catchers to put up a comparable WAR are Bench (5.6 per 162 games played), Cochrane (5.5) and Piazza (5.4). Then it’s Campy and Dickey (5.1) Does Mauer have to pad his career with numbers tallied at first base for us to appreciate this, or can we appreciate the genius of his career now? If we can appreciate the short-but-brilliant careers of Sandy Koufax or Kirby Puckett, why can’t we do the same for Joe Mauer? If we cut Koufax and Puckett slack for arm injuries and vision problems, why isn’t the same leniency granted to major league catchers?
* * *
This isn’t just a problem with the WAR statistic….it’s a general problem. Catchers have the toughest job on the field, yet their contributions are always undercut.
Gary Carter is one example. Gary Carter was a direct contemporary of Mike Schmidt, and their careers had some obvious parallels. Mike Schmidt was the very best player at his position for a decade. Schmidt had some challengers over in the AL (Brett, Boggs), but the clear consensus was that Schmidt was the best 3B of his era. He was a brilliant hitter, and a good defensive player. His teams won lots of games.
The same is true for Gary Carter. In Bill’s 1988 Abstract, he notes in his catchers’ rankings that that year is the first ranking he wrote where Carter wasn’t first. Carter played in ten straight All-Star games, received MVP votes in seven seasons. Sure, Carter had challengers for the title (Fisk, mainly), but Carter was the consensus choice for the best catcher of his era. He was a good hitter and a good defensive player. His teams won lots of games.
Mike Schmidt, when his name came up on the BBWAA ballot, was elected nearly unanimously. He received 96.5% of the vote.
Gary Carter, the catcher’s equivalent to Mike Schmidt, landed on the ballot three years later. He received 42% of the vote.
Then he received 34% of the vote.
Then 49.7%.
It took six years for the BBWAA to elect Gary Carter into the Hall of Fame. It took four years for half the voters to come around to the idea that Gary Carter, clearly the best catcher of his generation, was a Hall-of-Fame player.
I’m baffled by this. Even now, people are dismissive about Gary Carter’s career, viewing him as one of the more marginal Hall-of-Famer. I don’t know of any metric that suggests Gary Carter isn’t a top-ten catcher, but he’s never discussed as an elite player.
* * *
Getting back to WAR: I’m a giant fan of the two versions of WAR at FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. I think it’s a tremendously useful statistic, and I’ll continue to use it
But I don’t think that it accurately measures the true values of catchers. Actually, I should be more specific about that. I think WAR probably does measure the value of catchers with some accuracy….if WAR rates someone like Gary Carter as being a better player than Ted Simmons, I think that’s probably correct.
The limits of WAR are in how they measure catchers against other positional players. If we hold that Johnny Bench is the greatest catcher in major league history, it stands to reason that he should rate near the greatest first baseman, right-fielders, and shortstops in baseball history. Right now he doesn’t, at least not according to WAR. This has the potential to skew our perspective of all catchers: if we view Johnny Bench as being on par with Dick Allen or Larry Walker, we’ll bump historically great catchers like Gary Carter and Carlton Fisk into the ‘good’ camp. We’ll miss the rare genius of Joe Mauer’s career, and skip entirely the fine careers of catchers like Jorge Posada and Ted Simmons, players who are completely rational candidates for the Hall-of-Fame.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggests here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.