1. Victor Robles will be this year’s Ronald Acuna.
Still twenty-one years old, the one-time elite prospect has slipped a little under the radar a little bit. He’ll make the All-Star team this year, giving Acuna some competition as the best centerfielder in the NL East.
2. Jakob Junis is a pitcher you don’t know now, but will know by season’s end.
Junis, a 29th-round selection by the Royals, had a modest 2018, posting a 9-12 record with a 4.37 ERA and displaying a slight penchant for giving up dingers (32 in 177 IP). His overall record masks what was a very outstanding last-season run, when Junis just stopped walking hitters. Over his last seven starts (44.2 IP), Junis walked a paltry three hitters, while striking out 37. While I’m not ready to commit to go full-bod and pick him to win the Cy Young Award, I think he’ll have a breakthrough performance this year, in excess of 4.0 WAR.
3. Yasiel Puig will receive some MVP votes.
While a lot of folks still talk about ‘contract year’ spikes in performance, I put a lot more faith in players enjoying changes in scenery. Yasiel Puig has had plenty of highlight moments of greatness with the Dodgers, but he’s never felt like a great fit with the team’s culture. Here’s a prediction that the mercurial talent will have the best season of his career in the friendly confines of Cincinnati. And speaking of changes in scenery…
4. Billy Hamilton will finally break out and steal 75 bases.
I am not giving away this shot.
I am not giving away this shot.
Hey, I’m just like the team in K.C.
I’m young, scrappy, and speedy,
And I’m not giving away this shot.
I got low exit velocity and no on-base capacity,
But don’t underestimate my defensive perspicacity,
And hold on to witness my feet velocity,
‘Cause I’m not giving away this shot.
5. The best catcher in the NL will be a rookie in San Diego.
At a moment when position players seem to hit the majors as fully-formed talents (Acuna, Trout, Harper, Bryant, Soto, Bellinger), it’s a little hard to get excited about a player who works their way up the levels. That said, Padres backstop Francisco Mejia, acquired in a trade for reliever Brad Hand, is a strong-armed catcher who has hit at every level except the majors, and should get playing time in a platoon role. Here’s a guess that he out-performs other NL backstops in wRC+, even in a half-time role.
6. Brandon Nimmo will pace the NL in on-base percentage.
This isn’t all that bold, as Nimmo had a .404 on-base percentage last season. I’m just making this prediction to point out that Brandon Nimmo is a much better hitter than most people realize.
7. Cody Bellinger will lead the NL in home runs.
The NL Rookie of the Year in 2017, Bellinger suffered through a less-than-excellent sophomore season that saw his HR rate fall from once ever 12.3 at-bats to once every 22.3 at-bats. What changed? Almost nothing: Bellinger had a little more soft contact, but his general batted-ball profile was nearly identical from 2017 to 2018: he just got very different results. The mighty slugger’s results will rebound big in 2019, and Bellinger will pace the senior circuit in dingers in 2019.
8. Josh Donaldson will not bounce back.
Donaldson, one of the best players in the game in recent years, has been successful because he’s been able to walk a fine line, incorporating a pull-heavy, launch-angle reliant approach to develop into one of the game’s best hitters. But Donaldson’s groundball rate spiked last year, and he’s been chasing more pitches out of the zone while generating less contact. Hitters of Donaldson’s age frequently go through an adjustment: the bat slows down, and the approach that brought success is no longer effective. Some hitters make the adjustment (David Ortiz comes immediately to mind), and some don’t. Just a hunch, but I think Donaldson’s approach is going to prove difficult to adjust, and his days as an elite hitter are behind him.
9. The Red Sox will repeat as 100-game winners. And they’ll lose the AL East.
It’s tough to repeat as a 100-game winner, but the Red Sox will pull it off, with the help of a Rafael Devers breakout, and sold seasons from Price, Porcello, and Eovaldi. But the Yankees are just as good as their rivals up I-95, and they’ll be a little better than Boston this year.
10. Andrew McCutchen will eclipse his single-season bests in at least two of these: homeruns, runs scored, and on-base percentage.
The former NL MVP had a quietly strong 2018 season, and will start 2019 leadoff for an extremely strong Phillies lineup. Traded to the Yankees late, McCutchen excelled in the #1 slot for the Bombers, posting a .421 on-base percentage during his brief AL cameo. Here’s guessing he maintains that success, and benefits from the firepower behind him in Philly.
Those are my predictions for 2019. Feel free to post yours in the comments section below, and we’ll check back on them at the end of the season.
David Fleming is a writer living in western Virginia. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here. He very occasionally tweets at DavidFlemingJ1.