(Sorry -- my Hall of Famers count for 1950 was wrong.)

Just a comment on your answer to evanecurb: in my experience, third base is the easiest to evaluate by traditional statistics if you don't count steals as traditional statistics, followed by shortstop and second base. First base is a problem for the reason you stated; the outfielders are somewhere in between due to park effects and the fact that much of what outfielders do is containing someone else's mistake instead of making outs themselves.

Hi Bill, hope you're doing well and you and yours are healthy. I fell down a YouTube hole on Old Timer's games, and I wonder, when did these stop? I'm 38 and can't remember any of them happening in my day, but from what I've seen/read, they were a regular thing and attracted the big names. Any idea why they stopped, and when?

I am not sure I’ve seen the expression ‘fortunate order’ before.  Google offers no help.  I have a vague idea where you are going, but can you elaborate on what you mean?

In response to MarisFan61 comment: I am sure I’m not 100% correct on the 575 total players, but I’m probably 90% correct. I realized that there could have been some names that were listed on two teams because of a trade. They could have been counted twice when it should have been counted as one person, but I couldn’t go through and do that.  

 

The hall of famers I counted were: Johnny Mize, Phil Rizzuto, Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford, George Kell, Hal Newhouser, Bobby Doerr, Ted Williams, Joe Gordon, Larry Doby, Lou Boudreau, Bob Lemon, Early Wynn, Bob Feller, Nellie Fox, Luke Appling, Richie Ashburn, Robin Roberts, Jackie Robinson, Pee Wee Reese, Duke Snider, Roy Campanella, Monte Irvin, Warren Spahn, Stan Musial, Red Schoendienst, Enos Slaughter, Ralph Kiner.  

 

Of course, this doesn’t include HOF managers and executives who were there in 1950.  

 

I have been watching replays of the Nats playoff games.  I'm a Nats fan so I'm glad they won, but it sure seemed like they dodged a lot of bullets by stranding a host of opponent baserunners in many of the games.  There were many situations where a hit by the opponent at the right time would have changed the game and, indeed, the series.  

 

My question, is stranding base runners another example of "clutch hitting", which happens but is not really a skill?  

Hey Bill,  

 

Which defensive positions do you believe are most accurately evaluated by traditional fielding stats: errors, assists, putouts, double plays, and range factor?  To be clear, I’m asking which postions’ best defenders are most accurately identified by these stats?

Besides other possible issues about what Jerpol said/asked, as you might have suspected he understated the number of eventual Hall of Fame players who played in 1950. He said 29; I easily counted up to 37, and that may possibly be an undercount too.

Hey Bill--You're on Twitter a lot, so maybe I should ask this there, but what responsibility, if any, do social media platforms have to correct or delete incorrect information, particularly from public officials? Yes, I'm talking about the Trump mail-in voting and Scarborough tweets in particular. Is it anything goes? Thanks.

In the 1960s the Pirates’ yearbooks listed players who hit homers over the right field roof in Forbes Field.  Babe Ruth was the first.  It was his last one; he hit two earlier.  Wikipedia confirmed my recollection.  I recall Willie Stargell doing it multiple times.  Wiki says 7 of the 18 homers going over the roof were hit by Stargell.  He hit the longest homer to right field that I ever saw in Connie Mack Stadium, going over at least one building.  Stargell was the first to hit 3 homers in Dodger Stadium, just missing a fourth.  What would he have accomplished in the Baker Bowl?

Regarding Babe Ruth clearing the roof at Forbes Field, I wasn’t there, either, but can report that it was an accepted fact in the section on Forbes Field in the Pirates’ yearbooks at the time.) I grew up near Pittsburgh and saw half a dozen games at Forbes field as a child.) It was certainly possible to clear the right field roof, as Willie Stargell did it a few times, but they were prodigious blasts. I think Stargell’s three were the only ones outside of Ruth.

This stems from a comment that I posted on a YouTube video about potential hall of fame selections among current players. I said that in any year throughout baseball, weather it is 1920 or 1980, only about 10% of players who were playing in that season are in the HOF according to a book I have (one of yours). I looked at the book again, and it said 10% of major league at-bats were by a hall of famer. I decided to go through on old baseball encyclopedia that I have and do it that other way that I described. I chose 1950, because that is right at the mid-point of the 20th century. I counted 575 players who played during that season, and 29 are in the HOF. That came out to 5.04% of players who played during that season being in the HOF.  

The only other names I saw that I remember anyone ever talking about possibly being worthy of selection in any type of way, and who still are not in, were Gil Hodges, Marty Marion, and Allie Reynolds.  

My point was it's very exclusive. What do you think?

Hey, Bill!  Today (5/25) is the date on which Babe Ruth hit his last three home runs in 1935 at Forbes Field.  Do you know if it's really true that his last home run actually cleared the right-center field roof, or is that just a myth?  Supposedly Guy Bush (the pitcher off whom the home run was hit) had been telling his Pirate teammates that Babe could hit one that far, only to have them ridicule the idea.

Re: baserunning value of speed. Jarrod Dyson according to Fangraphs has career +52.4 runs on 2618 PA, or +14 runs per 700 PA. His 250 SB, 44 CS contributes just over half of that. That leaves us with about +6 runs for baserunning on batted balls.  

 

He gets on 1B or 2B (via single, double, walk, hit batter) 230 times / 700 PA.  He gets to use his baserunning skill when the next batter hits singles or doubles for most part, which happens about 20% of time.  Though sometimes he's still on base for the batter after that.  So, let's say 25% of 230 times he's on base, he gets to use his baserunning skill.  

 

Whatever average rate is for taking extra base (let's say it's 40% of the time, though it's obviously different if you are on first or second and if it's a single or double), a speedster like Dyson would be +10% on top of that (so 50% in this illustration).  

 

And so, Dyson will take an extra base 0.10 x 230 = +23 bases.  Each base is worth roughly 0.25 runs.  And so, 23 x 0.25 = +6 runs.

djmedinah wrote:  

 

"...asking you about the Marquis de Condorcet: his "Jury Theorem" held that a majority vote should directly translate into policy..."  

 

I believe that was first (and most clearly articulated) by Mickey Spillane.