First, the results, tallied from the sixty-two ballots submitted by BJOL readers:
Players
|
Votes
|
Percentage
|
Edgar Martinez
|
47
|
75.8%
|
Andre Dawson
|
32
|
51.6%
|
Larry Walker
|
31
|
50.0%
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
30
|
48.4%
|
Fred McGriff
|
22
|
35.5%
|
Kevin Brown
|
15
|
24.2%
|
John Olerud
|
11
|
17.7%
|
Bernie Williams
|
11
|
17.7%
|
Dale Murphy
|
9
|
14.5%
|
Lee Smith
|
9
|
14.5%
|
Jack Morris
|
8
|
12.9%
|
Dave Parker
|
7
|
11.3%
|
Jim Rice
|
4
|
6.5%
|
Don Mattingly
|
3
|
4.8%
|
Brad Radke
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Tim Salmon
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Brian Jordan
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Javy Lopez
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Bill Mueller
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Jeromy Burnitz
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Eric Young
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Vinny Castilla
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Phil Nevin
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Ruben Sierra
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Terry Mulholland
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Tony Womack
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Edgar Martinez enters as the sole member of the 2012 class, joining Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Bert Blyleven, Alan Trammell (class of 2009), Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Mark McGwire, (2010), and Jeff Bagwell (2011). For this accomplishment, Mr. Martinez will receive a certificate of merit and the 1963 edition of Encyclopedia Britannica, volumes ‘D’ and ‘H’, purchased at a flea market in Wilmington, Vermont last summer.
Andre Dawson, Larry Walker, and Rafael Palmeiro each received robust support from BJOL readers. Despite a late surge of support, Don Mattingly will fall off the ballot next year.
We’ve been running this vote for four years now…it’s been interesting to see how different players are doing year-by-year. Just looking at a few:
Player
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Dale Murphy
|
17%
|
27%
|
15%
|
15%
|
Jack Morris
|
10%
|
10%
|
22%
|
13%
|
Dave Parker
|
5%
|
15%
|
7%
|
11%
|
Jim Rice
|
6%
|
--
|
10%
|
7%
|
Don Mattingly
|
10%
|
12%
|
12%
|
5%
|
Kevin Brown
|
--
|
--
|
22%
|
24%
|
These six players have generally received a steady, low level of support from BJOL readers: their year-by-year percentages haven’t swing drastically, and despite some impassioned arguments made on the message boards, our community has generally not supported these candidates as Hall-of-Famers. It’s too early to tell if Kevin Brown will see his support build in the coming years, or if he falls off when players like Maddux, Clemens, Smoltz, Schilling, Pedro, and Mussina start showing up on ballots.
Don Mattingly has gradually lost ground; as a huge Mattingly fan, I’m sad about this. He was a really great player for a few years. Dale Murphy and Jim Rice are two players with big reputations, created in part by their home parks…their value was probably overstated during their careers (though Murphy was extremely good in his peak). It is interesting that Dave Parker, objectively better than Murphy and Rice, hasn’t ever out-voted Murphy, and has lagged behind Rice most years.
Player
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Andre Dawson
|
21%
|
25%
|
18%
|
52%
|
Larry Walker
|
--
|
--
|
23%
|
50%
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
--
|
--
|
33%
|
50%
|
John Olerud
|
--
|
--
|
5%
|
18%
|
On the other hand, these four players experienced dramatic spikes in support in 2012. Andre Dawson and Larry Walker both more than doubled their tallies, and Rafael Palmeiro got a ‘yes’ from half of our voters. Most interestingly, John Olerud went from clinging tenaciously to the ballot to passing over 15%.
Player
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Fred McGriff
|
--
|
18%
|
25%
|
36%
|
The Crime Dog, alone among the players on our ballot, has received steadily improving support from BJOL voters, doubling his percentage between 2010 and 2012. This is altogether in keeping with his excellent-but-unassuming career; people are gradually coming around on Crime Dog.
Player
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Lee Smith
|
14%
|
35%
|
40%
|
15%
|
Lee Smith has been all over the map: after three years of increases, Smith dropped down to fifteen percent. I’ve voted on Smith in the past; I am less sold on him as a deserving candidate now that I was years ago. I think his window for election is rapidly closing.
Prognosticating forward: I think that the ten-player limit will force some of the stragglers off the ballot in the coming years: I think that Dawson, Walker, Palmeiro, and McGriff will hang on the BJOL ballot through the boom period….I’d be worried if I was a supporter of Smith and Olerud. Ditto for the 80’s Superstars: Murphy, Parker, Rice, and Morris…some of them are going to drop off.
We now have nine Hall-of-Famers in four years; enough to make a team. Stretching a few positions:
P
|
Bert Blyleven
|
1B
|
Mark McGwire
|
2B
|
Roberto Alomar
|
3B
|
Alan Trammell
|
SS
|
Barry Larkin
|
LF
|
Tim Raines
|
CF
|
Rickey Henderson
|
RF
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
C/DH
|
Edgar Martinez
|
Not a bad team…if Piazza gets elected soon, we can move Edgar off the plate. This team would have little trouble winning pennants, even if Blyleven had to pitch underhand most days.
We’ve paralleled the BBWAA vote for four years now. Here’s who the two groups have elected:
BJOL Voters
|
BBWAA Voters
|
2009
|
2009
|
Rickey Henderson
|
Rickey Henderson
|
Tim Raines
|
Bert Blyleven
|
Alan Trammell
|
|
2010
|
2010
|
Roberto Alomar
|
Jim Rice
|
Barry Larkin
|
Mark McGwire
|
2011
|
2011
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
Roberto Alomar
|
Bert Blyleven
|
|
|
2012
|
2012
|
Edgar Martinez
|
???
|
We were a little ahead of the BBWAA on two candidates: Blyleven and Alomar. The BBWAA was ahead on Jim Rice’s candidacy, and it seems likely that they will stay ahead: BJOL readers are not convinced of Rice’s merit. It remains to be seen if the BBWAA will come around to our takes on Larkin, Trammell, McGwire, Bagwell, or Edgar.
Well, that about wraps it up for this year. Congrats to Edgar Martinez, and thanks to all of you who voted. We’ll see you again next December, when the real fun starts.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.