It’s that time again...the 2013 BJOL HOF Ballot has arrived!
For those just turning in, we’ve been running a parallel Hall-of-Fame vote here at the BJOL for the last four seasons. We run it with the same rules that the annual BBWAA ballot has: you can vote for up to ten players, 75% of votes gets a player elected, and falling below 5% gets a player dropped from future ballots.
Please post your ballots in the comments section of this article (bottom of the page). Anyone keen to discuss various candidates should start a thread over at the Reader’s Comments section of the site.
* * *
Before we get started, I should note an important change to our annual vote. Economic forces beyond our control have left those of us at BJOL unable to pay the rent for the glorious hall where we’ve previously celebrated our elected players. Instead, we’ve had to move into the basement of our mom’s house, to cut our costs. Thanks, moms. You are all the best.
Because of this necessary (and obviously predictable) move, what was formerly known as the “Bill James Online Hall of Fame” is now the “Bill James Online Basement of Superlatives”, or BJOL-BOS. This seems altogether fitting and proper, as players like Tim Raines, Alan Trammell, and Edgar Martinez, while perhaps not ‘famous’ enough to qualify for a hall that measures fame, are certainty superlative baseball players. It is our pleasure to continue recognizing their excellence.
It should be noted that other locations were considered: we debated the “Garage of Productivity”, but that would mean cleaning out the old lawn tractor, and the acronym GOP might send the wrong message. “Guest Room of Greatness” (GRoG) had a nice Viking thing going for it, but it seemed too transitory. “Couch of Wins Above Replacement Demigods” was a strong contender, but it was thought best not to offend readers.
So Basement of Superlatives it is....welcome to the 2013 BJOL-BOS vote!
(What do you mean I’m playing up my hometown? That accusation is spurious and unfounded!)
* * *
Here’s a summary of our first four elections:
2009
|
%
|
2010
|
%
|
2011
|
%
|
2011
|
%
|
R. Henderson
|
100%
|
Rb. Alomar
|
93%
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
95%
|
Ed. Martinez
|
76%
|
Tim Raines
|
89%
|
B. Larkin
|
90%
|
|
|
B. Blyleven
|
86%
|
M. McGwire
|
85%
|
|
|
A. Trammell
|
76%
|
|
|
|
|
Mark McGwire
|
64%
|
Ed. Martinez
|
50%
|
Ed. Martinez
|
73%
|
Andre Dawson
|
52%
|
Andre Dawson
|
21%
|
Lee Smith
|
35%
|
Lee Smith
|
40%
|
Larry Walker
|
50%
|
Tommy John
|
18%
|
Dale Murphy
|
27%
|
R. Palmeiro
|
33%
|
R. Palmeiro
|
48%
|
Dale Murphy
|
17%
|
Andre Dawson
|
25%
|
Fred McGriff
|
25%
|
Fred McGriff
|
36%
|
Lee Smith
|
14%
|
Fred McGriff
|
18%
|
Larry Walker
|
23%
|
Kevin Brown
|
24%
|
Don Mattingly
|
10%
|
Dave Parker
|
15%
|
Jack Morris
|
22%
|
John Olerud
|
18%
|
Jack Morris
|
10%
|
Don Mattingly
|
12%
|
Kevin Brown
|
22%
|
Ber. Williams
|
18%
|
Jim Rice
|
6%
|
Jack Morris
|
10%
|
A. Dawson
|
18%
|
Dale Murphy
|
15%
|
Harold Baines
|
5%
|
Harold Baines
|
7%
|
Dale Murphy
|
15%
|
Lee Smith
|
15%
|
Dave Parker
|
5%
|
Kevin Appier
|
3%
|
D. Mattingly
|
12%
|
Jack Morris
|
13%
|
Jesse Orosco
|
3%
|
A. Galarraga
|
3%
|
Jim Rice
|
10%
|
Dave Parker
|
11%
|
David Cone
|
2%
|
Robin Ventura
|
2%
|
Dave Parker
|
7%
|
Jim Rice
|
7%
|
Mo Vaughn
|
2%
|
Ellis Burks
|
0%
|
John Olerud
|
5%
|
D. Mattingly
|
5%
|
Jay Bell
|
0%
|
Pat Hentgen
|
0%
|
H. Baines
|
2%
|
Brad Radke
|
0%
|
Ron Gant
|
0%
|
Mike Jackson
|
0%
|
John Franco
|
2%
|
Tim Salmon
|
0%
|
Mark Grace
|
0%
|
Eric Karros
|
0%
|
Ju. Gonzalez
|
0%
|
Brian Jordan
|
0%
|
Dan Plesac
|
0%
|
Ray Lankford
|
0%
|
Ti. Martinez
|
0%
|
Javy Lopez
|
0%
|
Greg Vaughn
|
0%
|
S. Reynolds
|
0%
|
R. Mondesi
|
0%
|
Bill Mueller
|
0%
|
Matt Williams
|
0%
|
David Segui
|
0%
|
Al Leiter
|
0%
|
Jer. Burnitz
|
0%
|
Todd Zeile
|
0%
|
Carlos Baerga
|
0%
|
Eric Young
|
0%
|
Bret Boone
|
0%
|
Vinny Castilla
|
0%
|
M. Grissom
|
0%
|
Phil Nevin
|
0%
|
Lenny Harris
|
0%
|
Ruben Sierra
|
0%
|
B. Higginson
|
0%
|
T. Mulholland
|
0%
|
C. Johnson
|
0%
|
Tony Womack
|
0%
|
Kirk Reuters
|
0%
|
B. Santiago
|
0%
|
B.J. Surhoff
|
0%
|
We’ve let nine players into our parallel-universe Hall-of-Fame: two speedster OF’s (Henderson and Raines), three multi-tooled middle infielders (Trammell, Larkin, and Alomar), two slugging 1B’s (Bagwell, McGwire), a DH (Martinez) and a starting pitcher (Blyleven).
* * *
This year’s ballot is crowded, and (ahem) controversial. Here are the candidates for the 2013 class, along with their career rWAR and Win Shares:
2013 BJOL Basement of Superlatives Ballot
Name
|
Career rWAR
|
Career Win Shares
|
% of Prev. BJOL Vote
|
Barry Bonds
|
158.1
|
704
|
--
|
Roger Clemens
|
133.9
|
429
|
--
|
Curt Schilling
|
76.1
|
252
|
--
|
Larry Walker
|
67.3
|
308
|
50.0%
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
66.0
|
394
|
48.4%
|
Kenny Lofton
|
64.9
|
287
|
--
|
Kevin Brown
|
64.0
|
242
|
24.2%
|
Craig Biggio
|
62.1
|
428
|
--
|
Andre Dawson
|
57.0
|
340
|
51.6%
|
John Olerud
|
56.8
|
302
|
17.7%
|
Mike Piazza
|
56.1
|
324
|
--
|
Sammy Sosa
|
54.8
|
321
|
--
|
Fred McGriff
|
50.5
|
326
|
35.5%
|
David Wells
|
49.2
|
210
|
--
|
Bernie Williams
|
47.3
|
312
|
17.7%
|
Dale Murphy
|
44.2
|
230
|
14.5%
|
Jim Rice
|
41.5
|
282
|
6.5%
|
Steve Finley
|
40.4
|
297
|
--
|
Julio Franco
|
39.7
|
281
|
--
|
Jack Morris
|
39.3
|
225
|
12.9%
|
Dave Parker
|
37.8
|
327
|
11.3%
|
Reggie Sanders
|
36.7
|
208
|
--
|
Shawn Green
|
31.4
|
236
|
--
|
Lee Smith
|
29.7
|
198
|
14.5%
|
Jeff Cirillo
|
28.7
|
169
|
--
|
Woody Williams
|
28.1
|
118
|
--
|
Rondell White
|
25.5
|
151
|
--
|
Ryan Klesko
|
20.4
|
230
|
--
|
Aaron Sele
|
17.5
|
111
|
--
|
Roberto Hernandez
|
16.7
|
144
|
--
|
Jeff Conine
|
16.2
|
193
|
--
|
Royce Clayton
|
15.9
|
158
|
--
|
Mike Stanton
|
13.3
|
105
|
--
|
Sandy Alomar, Jr.
|
11.6
|
115
|
--
|
Jose Mesa
|
9.6
|
126
|
--
|
Todd Walker
|
8.3
|
122
|
--
|
* * *
Because the ballot is so crowded, we’re going to break it down into camps. We’ll start with the obvious one:
All-Time Greats
Pos.
|
Name
|
rWAR
|
WS
|
Notes
|
LF
|
Barry Bonds
|
158.1
|
704
|
Most HR, Runs Scored, Walks of all-time. Seven MVP's.
|
SP
|
Roger Clemens
|
133.9
|
429
|
354-186 lifetime record, 143 ERA+. Seven CY, MVP.
|
In this group we have (arguably) the best position player of all-time, and (arguably) the best pitcher of all time. In a nice act of balancing, each has won seven of their major awards. That’s seven MVP’s for Bonds, who perhaps deserved a few more, and seven Cy Young Awards for Clemens, who deserved seven, but probably not the seven he got.
The only reason to note vote for either candidate is the possibility that either used performance-enhancing drugs. Or: you think the basement should be really small, and the standards of Superlative-ness should be ridiculously high. Basically Babe Ruth, Walter Johnson, and maybe Honus Wagner.
Starting Pitchers
Pos.
|
Name
|
rWAR
|
WS
|
Notes
|
SP
|
Curt Schilling
|
76.1
|
252
|
216-146 record, 127 ERA+, 3116 k's, bloody sock.
|
SP
|
Kevin Brown
|
64.0
|
242
|
211-144 record, 3.28 ERA, 127 ERA+, (some) blood.
|
SP
|
David Wells
|
49.2
|
210
|
239-157 record, 108 ERA+. Called 'Boomer.'
|
SP
|
Jack Morris
|
39.3
|
225
|
254-186 record, 3.90 ERA, 105 ERA+. Called ‘Jack.’
|
Nice ‘pairs’ here. By the standard measure of wins and losses, Morris and Wells are a tick ahead of Schilling and Kevin Brown. But the advanced metrics suggest that Schilling and Brown have the edge over their winning-er peers. Subjectively, David Wells is probably not remembered as being the quality pitcher that the other three were, but that’s mostly the white noise from his over-sized personality. Wells was an excellent pitcher, though not in the company of Schilling and Brown, and perhaps not on par with Morris, either.
Paired by personality, it’s Wells/Schilling and Brown/Morris. Probably don’t want the first two started on politics.
First Basemen
Pos.
|
Name
|
rWAR
|
WS
|
Notes
|
1B
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
66.0
|
394
|
3020 hits, 560 HR, 1865 RBI. Sang about belugas.
|
1B
|
John Olerud
|
56.8
|
302
|
1993 batting title, 255 HR. Wore a helmet
|
1B
|
Fred McGriff
|
50.5
|
326
|
493 HR, 1550 RBI, 134 OPS+. Crime Dog.
|
Rafael Palmeiro is sort of an amalgam of McGriff and Olerud: an excellent fielder with a good batting average and considerable power. Win Shares credits Raffy as being better than the other two, though all three cross the 300-line, and are thus legitimate candidates for the Hall-of-Fame/Basement-of-Superlatives.
rWAR has it considerably closer, though Raffy is still ahead. Of course, there’s the big ‘S’ hanging over his head.
Middle Infielders/Catchers/Biggio
Pos.
|
Name
|
rWAR
|
WS
|
Notes
|
2B
|
Craig Biggio
|
62.1
|
428
|
3060 hits, 291 HR, 1844 Runs scored, 414 SB. A 'Killer B'.
|
C
|
Mike Piazza
|
56.1
|
324
|
.308 BA, 427 HR, 1335 RBI. Most HR by a C. Great hair.
|
SS/2B
|
Julio Franco
|
39.7
|
281
|
2586 hits, 173 HR, 281 SB. Best batting stance ever.
|
Had to lump Piazza with someone.
We have another Win Shares/WAR divide, with WAR rating Biggio just a few ticks ahead of Piazza, while Win Shares gives Biggio a considerable advantage. Neither man is the best at their respective position, but both are clearly in the top-ten, and possibly the top-five.
Julio Franco is one of my all-time favourites...if I am playing a meaningless game of baseball I typically imitate his batting stance.
Franco is one of those players who could’ve gotten to 3000 hits, if he had gotten a few more breaks:
-His first full year in the majors with 1983, when he was twenty-four. He wasn’t great, but he managed to hit .286 as a rookie with 153 hits and 32 stolen bases. He finished second in the ROY voting. If he had come up in 1982, he might’ve tacked on one hundred extra hits. We’re being conservative.
-He missed a year in 1992, right at the apex of his abilities as a hitter. He collected 201 hits the year before (and the AL batting title). He probably lost 150 hits that year....we’re at 250 lost hits.
-He went to Japan for 1995. He had hit .319 for the White Sox in 1994 and he’d hit .322 for the Indians in 1996, so it’s likely he would’ve been productive in 1995....we’ll say 130 hits lost in translation. 380 now.
-In 1998 he went back to Japan. In 2000 he moved to South Korea. Must’ve wanted some pho. Save for one at-bat as a Devil Ray in 1999, Franco didn’t play in the majors for three years. He came back with the Braves and hit .300 in 25 games, and then .284 in 125 games. He was a bat-off-the-bench at this point, a spot-starter. He was in his early forties by then, and still an effective hitter. In the three years he spent in Asia, a conservative guess would be that he lost 240 hits, or 80 per season. That’s muy conservative. That gets us to 620 missing hits.
Franco was an extraordinarily productive hitter into his late 40’s: he posted a 113 OPS+ in limited time in 2003, when he was forty-four. He then his .309 in 320 at-bats in 2004, which was good enough for a 111 OPS+. He was at 107 in 2005, when he was mostly forty-six years old.
Between ages 42-48, Franco posted a triple-slash line of .285/.358/.412, which was good enough for an OPS+ of exactly 100. Pete Rose, in less playing time than Franco, posted an OPS+ of just 86 at the same age. Cap Anson, again in drastically less playing time, adjusts to a 104 OPS+. Franco might be the greatest old player of all-time.
He might not be a Hall-of-Famer, but he collected 2586 with his weird batting stance. If he had stayed in America, there’s a good chance he would’ve crossed over 3000 hits, and we’d have a real debate about his candidacy. In many ways, Franco is the opposite of Omar Vizquel. Franco was a good hitter but a poor defensive player, whereas Vizquel is considered an excellent defensive player, but doesn’t compare to Franco as a hitter. Both men came close to 3000 hits and fell short...I suspect that both men will fall short of the Hall-of-Fame, too.
If I could live anyone’s baseball career, I might take Franco’s. A native of the Dominican Republic, Franco played professional baseball in six countries (Mexico, the US, Canada, Japan, and South Korea). He was, like Rickey Henderson, someone who seems mad about baseball; who wanted to play as long as he could. Franco is coaching now in the Mets organization, but I like to think that he’s off playing in some league in Mexico or Japan or Korea, staying in shape and getting his at-bats. He’s had some life in the game.
Outfielders
Pos.
|
Name
|
rWAR
|
WS
|
Notes
|
RF
|
Larry Walker
|
67.3
|
308
|
383 HR, .313 BA, 7 Gold Gloves.
|
CF
|
Kenny Lofton
|
64.9
|
287
|
Five-time All-Star, 4 Gold Gloves. 622 steals, 2428 hits.
|
RF
|
Andre Dawson
|
57.0
|
340
|
438 HR, 314 SB, 1987 MVP, HOFer
|
RF
|
Sammy Sosa
|
54.8
|
321
|
609 homeruns, 1667 RBI. 1998 MVP. Three 60+ HR.
|
CF
|
Bernie Williams
|
47.3
|
312
|
Good guitarist. Career OPS+ of 125, 287 HR.
|
CF
|
Dale Murphy
|
44.2
|
230
|
Two MVP's, five Gold Gloves. Nice guy.
|
LF
|
Jim Rice
|
41.5
|
282
|
1978 MVP, eight-time All-Star, HOFer.
|
CF
|
Steve Finley
|
40.4
|
297
|
304 career HR, 320 stolen bases. Career OPS+ of 104.
|
RF
|
Dave Parker
|
37.8
|
327
|
Nicknamed 'Cobra' 1978 NL MVP.
|
This is a difficult group to sort out. Walker and Dawson seem like a logical pair: right fielders who could hit and run (for a while), and who were good defensive players. Both were aided by hitter’s parks (Wrigley, Coors). Dave Parker perhaps belongs in this group: he had the same terrific arm that Walker has, and he could run a bit early in his career. Never a good base runner, though. Steve Finley fits this group, too, though he dilutes it significantly.
Kenny Lofton has no obvious pair...he belongs with Raines and Henderson; a step behind them, of course, but in their category of player. Fast. WAR gives Lofton a good bit of credit for his defense, and has him as an MVP candidate in 1993 and 1994. Win Shares has him at 25 and 21 Win Shares, respectively; good years, but not MVP seasons. Win Shares agrees that 1993 was his best season.
Sosa belongs with Rice: feared hitters, but park effects muddy the waters considerably, and neither player did much else on the field. Lots of power, but lots of small deficiencies in secondary categories.
That leaves Bernie and Dale Murphy, which seems apt. Both were good defensive centerfielders, though Murphy had the much better arm. Murphy had a bit more power, but Williams had better batting averages, and won a bunch of World Series titles.
Going with Win Shares: Dawson, Parker, Sosa, Bernie, and Walker cross the 300-barrier, while Finley (impressive) Lofton, and Rice clip the bar. Dale Murphy does poorly by Win Shares, well behind the pack.
According to WAR, Walker and Lofton are +60, while Dawson and Sosa are +50. Bernie, Murphy, Rice, and Finley are in the 40’s, while Parker takes the back. Win Shares and WAR are really divided on how to assess Dave Parker: is he a borderline Hall-of-Famer, or is he the worst on the list?
The players who have both 300+ Win Shares and 50+ WAR are Dawson, Walker, and Sosa, which isn’t too surprising. The rest are a jumble.
Relief Pitchers
Pos.
|
Name
|
rWAR
|
WS
|
Notes
|
RP
|
Lee Smith
|
29.7
|
198
|
478 career saves, 71-92 record, 3.03 ERA.
|
RP
|
Rbrt Hernandez
|
16.7
|
144
|
326 career saves. 67-71 lifetime record, 3.45 ERA.
|
RP
|
Jose Mesa
|
9.6
|
126
|
321 career saves, 80-109 lifetime record.
|
With Lee Smith, you buy it or you don’t. I was, briefly, convinced that he deserved a spot, but I’m less convinced of his case now. Of the two metrics above, Win Shares is the more generous to Smith which has him a hair behind David Wells (210 to 198), and behind Jack Morris (225). WAR shows a bigger divide: 39.3 (Morris) and 49.2 (Wells) to Smith’s 29.7
Affectionate Votes
Name
|
rWAR
|
WS
|
Notes
|
Reggie Sanders
|
36.7
|
208
|
305 HR, 304 stolen bases. Career OPS+ 115
|
Shawn Green
|
31.4
|
236
|
Had a four-HR game. Good player for a time.
|
Jeff Cirillo
|
28.7
|
169
|
(1996-2001): .317 with 82 HR, 553 runs, and 519 RBI.
|
Woody Williams
|
28.1
|
118
|
132-116 lifetime record, 4.19 ERA.
|
Rondell White
|
25.5
|
151
|
198 career HR.
|
Ryan Klesko
|
20.4
|
230
|
278 HR, 987 RBI. Career OPS+ of 128.
|
Aaron Sele
|
17.5
|
111
|
148-122 lifetime record, 4.61 ERA.
|
Jeff Conine
|
16.2
|
193
|
214 career HR, 1071 RBI, .285 BA
|
Royce Clayton
|
15.9
|
158
|
110 career HR, 231 stolen bases.
|
Mike Stanton
|
13.3
|
105
|
84 saves, 3,92 ERA. Became ‘Giancarlo’ last year...
|
S. Alomar, Jr.
|
11.6
|
115
|
1990 AL ROY. Brother of Roberto Alomar.
|
Todd Walker
|
8.3
|
122
|
107 career HR.
|
I don’t know that a case exists for any of these players, but I could be missing something. Cast your ballots for the Basement of Superlatives below....we'll announce the results in January.
*One last (late) addition to our annual election: this year we're allowing an extra space for 'write-in' candidates. Each voter can submit a vote for any player who is a) not already on the ballot, and b) not in the actually Hall-of-Fame.
The player who receives the most write-in votes will automatically be added to next year's ballot. If that player receives 75% of the vote, that player will automatically be elected to the BJOL-BOS, and the player with the next highest percentage of write-ins will be added to the ballot.
Those of you who have already submitted ballots can add your write-ins, and they will be counted.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes questions, comments and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.