Hi. Welcome to our eighth annual BJOL HOF vote.
For any newcomers to the site, we’ve been running a parallel vote to the BBWAA ballot for a bunch of years. Everyone gets a vote: you just post the players you’d vote for in the comments section below, and we’ll tally them at the end of the year, right as the BBWAA announces their electees. Like the BBWAA ballot, you can list up to ten players on your ballot. Any player who ends up on 75% of the ballots is ‘elected’, and anyone who falls under 5% slips off the list.
The most important thing to note is that our ballot is different than the BBWAA ballot. Every year we’ll get a few ballots in the comments section that have Jeff Bagwell or Tim Raines listed, or a few readers wondering why Barry Bonds isn’t eligible. Those guys aren’t on our ballot because we've already elected them.
Which gets to the point of this little exercise: when I started running this, I was hoping to create a space for BJOL readers to have a different conversation than the one that the BBWAA ballot would force on us every year. I knew that most of our readers thought of Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell as HOF’ers, and I didn’t want to spend every year debating their candidacy because the BBWAA kept ignoring them.
That’s the big reason I started this: to give us a frame for the conversations interesting to us, to our little sub-community.
The other reason I started doing this is because it’s fun. I like voting on the HOF every year, and I think a few of you like it, too. So we keep it going.
Aside from the names, there are a few other differences between our election and the BBWAA one. One is that we’ve been adding players: everyone who submits a ballot can add a write-in candidate: any player they’d like to see on the ballot next year. Whichever player receives the most write-in votes will be added to the ballot. We added Lou Whitaker a few years ago, and promptly elected him. Dewey Evans was added last year, and Angels second baseman Bobby Grich joins our ballot this year.
So please include a write-in candidate with your ballots.
Another difference is transparency: everyone gets to see your ballot. We get to learn everyone’s voting tendencies, and preferences. We all know, for instance, that Bob (rgregory) has a policy of passing over any steroid-era player on their first year of eligibility…that’s no first-year vote for Barry Bonds, and no first-year vote for Greg Maddux. I like his policy, incidentally: it’s strikes me as a lot more reasonable than the ‘eyeball test’ that’s currently keeping Bagwell and Piazza out.
A third difference is that we haven’t yet subtracted candidates. I like the ten-year rule on eligibility, so we’ll start applying that. Players will fall off the ballot if they aren’t elected in ten years. No one is in their final year of eligibility, of course…Lee Smith and Andre Dawson and Dale Murphy are each two years away. Fred McGriff might be, too.
Before we get to this year’s ballot, here’s a year-by-year breakdown of who the BJOL readers have elected so far:
Year
|
BJOL HOF Entrants
|
2009
|
Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Bert Blyleven, Alan Trammell
|
2010
|
Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Mark McGwire
|
2011
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
2012
|
Edgar Martinez
|
2013
|
Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens
|
2014
|
Greg Maddux, F. Thomas, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, L. Whittaker
|
2015
|
Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, Curt Schilling
|
Here’s how the BJOL-elected players compare with the players selected by the BBWAA:
Elected by BJOL
|
Elected by Both
|
Elected by BBWAA
|
Tim Raines
|
Rickey Henderson
|
Jim Rice
|
Alan Trammell
|
Bert Blyleven
|
Andre Dawson
|
Mark McGwire
|
Roberto Alomar
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
Barry Larkin
|
Edgar Martinez
|
Greg Maddux
|
Mike Piazza
|
Frank Thomas
|
Barry Bonds
|
Tom Glavine
|
Roger Clemens
|
Pedro Martinez
|
Mike Mussina
|
Randy Johnson
|
Lou Whittaker
|
John Smoltz
|
Curt Schilling
|
Craig Biggio
|
Frankly, I like our Hall better. Jim Rice and Andre Dawson were fine players, but I think I’ll take the guys in our column.
And I’ll take our ballot over the current BBWAA one. I have no idea how anyone with a BBWAA vote can process a ballot as crowded as the current BBWAA one, and I’m grateful that we have a slightly easier list to slog through. So let’s get into it
2016 BJOL HOF BALLOT
Name
|
Win Shares
|
rWAR
|
% of Prev. BJOL Vote
|
Gary Sheffield
|
430
|
60.2
|
50.6%
|
Ken Griffey, Jr.
|
403
|
83.6
|
--
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
394
|
66.0
|
19.1%
|
Andre Dawson
|
340
|
57.0
|
31.5%
|
Jeff Kent
|
339
|
55.2
|
33.7%
|
Bobby Grich*
|
329
|
70.9
|
--
|
Fred McGriff
|
326
|
50.5
|
33.7%
|
Dwight Evans*
|
323
|
66.9
|
53.9%
|
Sammy Sosa
|
321
|
54.8
|
14.6%
|
Bernie Williams
|
312
|
47.3
|
9.0%
|
Larry Walker
|
308
|
67.3
|
49.4%
|
Jim Edmonds
|
301
|
60.3
|
--
|
Kenny Lofton
|
287
|
64.9
|
23.6%
|
Jason Kendall
|
245
|
41.5
|
--
|
Kevin Brown
|
242
|
64.0
|
19.1%
|
Dale Murphy
|
230
|
44.2
|
9.0%
|
Garret Anderson
|
230
|
25.6
|
--
|
Luis Castillo
|
201
|
28.9
|
--
|
Lee Smith
|
198
|
29.7
|
12.4%
|
Troy Glaus
|
189
|
37.9
|
--
|
Trevor Hoffman
|
188
|
28.4
|
--
|
Mark Grudzielanek
|
186
|
26.3
|
--
|
Mike Lowell
|
185
|
24.8
|
--
|
BillyWagner
|
182
|
28.1
|
--
|
Randy Winn
|
171
|
27.5
|
--
|
Brad Ausmus
|
169
|
16.4
|
--
|
Mike Sweeney
|
162
|
24.7
|
--
|
Mike Hampton
|
144
|
29.0
|
--
|
David Eckstein
|
143
|
20.8
|
--
|
Get your votes in. Or take your time. Feel free to start arguments on the Reader’s Comments section of our site, or in the comments section here.
* * *
I always like the break down the ballot a little bit. When you’re staring at a list of thirty players, it helps me to group the players up into manageable subsections. So we have:
The One Guy Everyone Will Vote For (Except Bob)
Name
|
Win Shares
|
rWAR
|
Notes
|
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
403
|
83.6
|
Never heard of him. And the Hall is about 'Fame', right?
|
Easily most popular player of the 1990’s, and certainly the most popular player of my lifetime, Griffey is part of the Jimmie Foxx/Eddie Mathews family of Kid Superstars who hit a wall in their early 30’s. Junior’s popularity is all the more remarkable for a player who a) came up with Seattle, and b) never played ina World Series. A wonderful player.
Three Steroid-Era Guys Who Swatted Dingers
Name
|
Win Shares
|
rWAR
|
Notes
|
Gary Sheffield
|
430
|
60.2
|
The most terrifying hitter of his generation. Traded a lot.
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
394
|
66.0
|
The guy who swapped places with Will Clark a bunch of times.
|
Sammy Sosa
|
321
|
54.8
|
Hit some dingers. Made baseball a lot of fun in 1998.
|
All three players have cases to be made for them, and reasons for skepticism. Every year I have to consider Raffy over again: I’ve had years when I’ve voted for him and years when I’ve passed on him. I have no idea, really, how to judge him. Or Sosa.
The Crime Dog
Name
|
Win Shares
|
rWAR
|
Notes
|
Fred McGriff
|
326
|
50.5
|
A power-hitting 1B, reduced by context.
|
Surprisingly, Fred McGriff is all alone this year: the BJOL voters have elected the over-qualified 1B’s (Bagwell, Mac), and we’ve let the borderline 1B candidates (John Olerud, Carlos Delgado) fall off the ballot. He’ll get company next year, but for 2016 he’s all alone.
He’s a hard candidate to judge, because his career splits two eras. Judged by the standards of the 1980’s, he was an elite power hitter: had his career started five years earlier I suspect that he’d be in the Hall of Fame right now. Unfortunately, McGriff’s career slipped into the high-offense 1990’s, and his name lingered on the ballot long enough to show up alongside power hitters like Raffy and Mac and Sosa and Bagwell. Tough case.
Great Defensive OF’s Who Could Rake
Name
|
Win Shares
|
rWAR
|
Notes
|
Bernie Williams
|
312
|
47.3
|
He could play the guitar just like ringin' a bell.
|
Larry Walker
|
308
|
67.3
|
An elite hitter and a terrific defensive RF, helped by Coors.
|
Jim Edmonds
|
301
|
60.3
|
The best defensive CF on our ballot. Which is saying something.
|
Kenny Lofton
|
287
|
64.9
|
The historical descendant of Rickey and Raines.
|
Here’s a weird thing: according to Win Shares, Bernie Williams is the best of these four players, but Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR has him as the worst of the bunch, by a considerable margin.
We know why, of course. Win Shares are connected to team wins, and Bernie Williams played on some very good teams. WAR is an adjustment against the positional average, and Bernie had some fine centerfielders to compete with. One of the reasons I like using both metrics to consider a candidate is because I honestly don’t know which is the better ‘check’ of player performance; whether the better measure is a player’s contribution to his team’s success, or a player’s contributions as it compared to the league averages.
Stars of the Reagan Era
Name
|
Win Shares
|
rWAR
|
Notes
|
Andre Dawson
|
340
|
57.0
|
80's version of L.Walker, complete with mid-career park bonus.
|
Bobby Grich*
|
329
|
70.9
|
1981 AL HR Co-champ, and a favorite of us saber-types.
|
Dwight Evans*
|
323
|
66.9
|
1981 AL HR Co-champ, and a favorite of me.
|
Dale Murphy
|
230
|
44.2
|
Two-time NL MVP, and a pretty good guy.
|
One thing’s for sure: BJOL readers have a soft spot for stars of the 1980’s: in our write-in campaigns, we’ve added Lou Whitaker, Dewey Evans, and Bobby Grich to our ballot. So there’s still hope for an aggressive reconsidering of Bob Horner’s career.
Guys I Couldn’t Really Sort
Name
|
Win Shares
|
rWAR
|
Notes
|
Kevin Brown
|
242
|
64.0
|
A good pitcher mostly ignored as a serious HOF candidate.
|
Jeff Kent
|
339
|
55.2
|
The all-time leader in homers by a 2B.
|
Jason Kendall
|
245
|
41.5
|
A poor man's version of Mickey Cochrane.
|
Kevin Brown is the last good starter left, after the BJOL readers voted in an impressive seven starters over the last two years. I wouldn’t put Brown ahead of any of the guys elected in those two years (Pedro, Unit, Maddux, Mussina, Schilling, Smoltz, and Glavine). I suppose I could have put Kent with Grich…maybe next year, if Bobby sticks around.
I almost put Kendall in with the last tier, but there’s actually some case to be made that he’s a bubble HOF candidate. He is probably the fourth-best catcher of his era, behind Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez and Jorge Posada, but ahead of everyone else. WAR tends to underrate catchers: a career WAR of 40 as a catcher is pretty comparable to an outfielder with a 60 fWAR. He ranks 22nd in career WAR by a catcher, which isn’t anything to sneeze at. The 22nd best CF by fWAR is Larry Doby. The 22nd best first baseman by fWAR is Hank Greenberg.
Putting it another way: the metric credits Kendall as being about equal to Yadier Molina, if you adjust their career totals to a ratio to adjust for playing time. I don’t think of Molina as an absurd candidate for the Hall-of-Fame. I think Posada, who rates a bit ahead of Kendall, as a very good candidate for the Hall, but I recognize I’m in the majority there.
Anyway…Kendall is likely going to fall off our ballot, and that’s probably the right call. But he had a fine career, and we might look back in thirty years and realize we missed something.
The What-The-Hell-Do-We-Do-About-Closers? Closers
Name
|
Win Shares
|
rWAR
|
Notes
|
Lee Smith
|
198
|
29.7
|
1289 IP, 132 ERA+, 1251 K's, 478 Saves
|
Trevor Hoffman
|
188
|
28.4
|
1089 IP, 141 ERA+, 1133 K's, 601 Saves
|
Billy Wagner
|
182
|
28.1
|
903 IP, 187 ERA+, 1196 K, 422 Saves
|
I don’t know what to do with closers.
Billy Wagner was, inning-for-inning, a better pitcher than Trevor Hoffman. A lot better. But Hoffman tossed 200 extra innings, so maybe those makes him more valuable.
But if you follow that train of thought, don’t you have to elect Lee Smith? Trevor Hoffman was, inning-for-inning, a better pitcher than Lee Smith. Not a lot better…a little better. And Smith tossed 200 more innings, which makes him more valuable.
I think the consensus opinion is that Trevor Hoffman is a Hall-of-Famer, that Smith might be, and that Wagner isn’t. But they seem pretty interchangeable to me: I don’t see any real way to pick one of ‘em and not vote for the other guys. 601 saves is a lot, but saves were different for Lee Smith than they were for Hoffman and Wagner: if we adjust for contexts, it’s likely that Lee’s 478 saves is more impressive than Hoffman’s 601, in the same way that Fred McGriff’s 493 homers is more impressive than the 606 that Sammy Sosa hit.
Anyway, I have no idea what to do with closers, and I’d love it if someone postulated a reasonable way forward.
Guys You Probably Won't Vote For, Unless You’re Related To Them
Name
|
Win Shares
|
rWAR
|
Garret Anderson
|
230
|
25.6
|
Luis Castillo
|
201
|
28.9
|
Troy Glaus
|
189
|
37.9
|
Mark Gurdzlnk
|
186
|
26.3
|
Mike Lowell
|
185
|
24.8
|
Randy Winn
|
171
|
27.5
|
Brad Ausmus
|
169
|
16.4
|
Mike Sweeney
|
162
|
24.7
|
Mike Hampton
|
144
|
29.0
|
David Eckstein
|
143
|
20.8
|
It wouldn’t surprise me if one of these men makes it to the Hall someday. The smart money is on Ausmus, though Lowell and Grudzielanek are coaching/managing somewhere. Grudzielanek might’ve been a HOF candidate if his career started earlier, but he didn’t sign with the Mets in 1989, and took a bit too long to get to the majors. Like Teixeira and Tulo, he’s a headache to write about. And there’s always a chance that FanGraphs will invent a game-changing metric that estimates a player’s GAR (Grit Above Replacement). Then it’s just a matter of time before David Eckstein gets the call.
Get your ballots in. And remember your write-in-candidates for the 2017 election!
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.