The "How Well Do You Know Your BBWAA" contest is now closed. 26 entries were submitted, exceeding last year’s inaugural total of 18.
A 27th entry was also submitted which "predicted" 37% for each candidate, but I’m not including that one in the summary data below, so that it doesn’t influence the data.
Here are some results gathered from the entries submitted:
Average, High, Low, and Range (Distance between high and low)
(Sorted by the player’s average predicted vote %)
*-First time on the BBWAA ballot
Player
|
Avg
|
Hi
|
Low
|
Range
|
Chipper Jones*
|
89.2
|
97.0
|
78.2
|
18.8
|
Vladimir Guerrero
|
78.1
|
87.0
|
64.0
|
23.0
|
Trevor Hoffman
|
77.8
|
83.0
|
67.5
|
15.5
|
Jim Thome*
|
75.5
|
90.0
|
50.0
|
40.0
|
Edgar Martinez
|
65.5
|
74.0
|
46.5
|
27.5
|
Roger Clemens
|
61.1
|
71.0
|
52.0
|
19.0
|
Barry Bonds
|
60.6
|
72.0
|
50.0
|
22.0
|
Mike Mussina
|
60.2
|
69.0
|
51.5
|
17.5
|
Curt Schilling
|
47.8
|
75.3
|
35.8
|
39.5
|
Omar Vizquel*
|
38.2
|
76.8
|
11.0
|
65.8
|
Manny Ramirez
|
26.5
|
44.0
|
14.4
|
29.6
|
Larry Walker
|
25.6
|
69.0
|
14.9
|
54.1
|
Fred McGriff
|
24.4
|
69.0
|
18.0
|
51.0
|
Scott Rolen*
|
23.7
|
55.4
|
8.0
|
47.4
|
Jeff Kent
|
19.1
|
54.0
|
13.0
|
41.0
|
Gary Sheffield
|
15.2
|
44.0
|
10.2
|
33.8
|
Andruw Jones*
|
13.9
|
35.0
|
3.5
|
31.5
|
Billy Wagner
|
13.2
|
33.0
|
6.2
|
26.8
|
Sammy Sosa
|
10.9
|
33.0
|
5.0
|
28.0
|
Johan Santana*
|
10.9
|
34.5
|
-
|
34.5
|
Jamie Moyer*
|
4.0
|
11.4
|
-
|
11.4
|
Johnny Damon*
|
3.4
|
12.1
|
0.5
|
11.6
|
Chris Carpenter*
|
2.2
|
25.0
|
-
|
25.0
|
Carlos Lee*
|
1.8
|
26.0
|
-
|
26.0
|
Hideki Matsui*
|
1.6
|
15.0
|
-
|
15.0
|
Kerry Wood*
|
0.4
|
3.4
|
-
|
3.4
|
Livan Hernandez*
|
0.4
|
8.0
|
-
|
8.0
|
Brad Lidge*
|
0.4
|
5.0
|
-
|
5.0
|
Kevin Millwood*
|
0.4
|
3.0
|
-
|
3.0
|
Jason Isringhausen*
|
0.2
|
2.0
|
-
|
2.0
|
Carlos Zambrano*
|
0.2
|
1.4
|
-
|
1.4
|
Aubrey Huff*
|
0.1
|
1.9
|
-
|
1.9
|
Orlando Hudson*
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
-
|
0.5
|
- If you go by the average prediction of our group, 4 players will be elected this year: Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, and Jim Thome. I happen to agree with the group…..I think we’ll see all those 4 be elected this year.
- 100% of the entries predict Chipper Jones will receive at least 75% of the vote
- 24 of the 26 entries (92%) predict Trevor Hoffman will receive at least 75% of the vote
- 23 of the 26 entries 17 (88%) predict Vladimir Guerrero will receive at least 75% of the vote
- 19 of the 26 entries 17 (73%) predict Jim Thome will receive at least 75% of the vote
- Curt Schilling and Omar Vizquel each had one entry that predicted that player would receive at least 75% of the vote.
- Omar Vizquel had the greatest range of predictions, from a low of 11% to a high of 76.8%.
- Our predictions, as a group, imply that voters will average 8.5 players per ballot. Last year, the BBWAA voting yielded an average of 8.1 players per ballot, and the year before it was 7.9
At the end of this article is a list of all the entries. If you would, please review your entry. If you see any errors, please post a comment and I’ll fix it.
Results of the BBWAA Hall of Fame vote will be announced January 24, 2018, so we’ve got a fair amount of down time until that announcement. In the interim, I will be checking in on Ryan Thibodaux’s excellent "Hall of Fame tracker" and posting occasional articles with some observations about how the voting is tracking.
Thanks for reading,
Dan
Player
|
aggped
|
bdhopkin
|
bjbrown
|
brewers_paul
|
Chris Bodig
|
chuck
|
Cooldrive
|
Barry Bonds
|
66.1
|
64.3
|
61.0
|
55.0
|
56.0
|
60.8
|
63.6
|
Chris Carpenter*
|
0.0
|
2.4
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
25.0
|
Roger Clemens
|
65.4
|
65.9
|
59.0
|
56.0
|
56.0
|
61.4
|
66.1
|
Johnny Damon*
|
2.6
|
3.5
|
1.0
|
3.5
|
3.0
|
3.0
|
7.0
|
Vladimir Guerrero
|
75.9
|
75.6
|
76.0
|
80.5
|
84.0
|
78.5
|
78.0
|
Livan Hernandez*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
8.0
|
Trevor Hoffman
|
76.6
|
79.0
|
77.0
|
74.5
|
79.0
|
78.0
|
75.0
|
Orlando Hudson*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Aubrey Huff*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Jason Isringhausen*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
Andruw Jones*
|
9.9
|
14.9
|
9.0
|
3.5
|
7.0
|
19.7
|
8.0
|
Chipper Jones*
|
90.5
|
93.2
|
86.0
|
80.0
|
97.0
|
88.9
|
89.0
|
Jeff Kent
|
15.5
|
15.7
|
18.0
|
17.0
|
17.0
|
17.6
|
54.0
|
Carlos Lee*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
26.0
|
Brad Lidge*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
Edgar Martinez
|
70.5
|
67.9
|
66.0
|
60.5
|
69.0
|
65.8
|
74.0
|
Hideki Matsui*
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
15.0
|
Fred McGriff
|
18.5
|
24.6
|
22.0
|
30.0
|
23.0
|
22.6
|
69.0
|
Kevin Millwood*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
3.0
|
Jamie Moyer*
|
0.0
|
5.1
|
1.0
|
5.0
|
2.0
|
3.4
|
10.0
|
Mike Mussina
|
51.5
|
60.0
|
56.0
|
58.5
|
59.0
|
59.8
|
69.0
|
Manny Ramirez
|
29.5
|
23.0
|
27.0
|
27.5
|
22.0
|
25.0
|
44.0
|
Scott Rolen*
|
16.8
|
24.9
|
18.0
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
21.0
|
43.0
|
Johan Santana*
|
0.0
|
11.7
|
3.0
|
3.5
|
7.0
|
10.0
|
25.0
|
Curt Schilling
|
39.5
|
51.9
|
45.0
|
45.0
|
50.0
|
45.0
|
75.3
|
Gary Sheffield
|
13.5
|
16.8
|
15.0
|
14.0
|
11.0
|
14.0
|
17.9
|
Sammy Sosa
|
11.5
|
7.9
|
11.0
|
9.5
|
9.0
|
9.0
|
33.0
|
Jim Thome*
|
82.5
|
74.9
|
70.0
|
90.0
|
86.0
|
75.4
|
81.0
|
Omar Vizquel*
|
39.9
|
31.6
|
55.0
|
15.0
|
37.0
|
34.5
|
57.0
|
Billy Wagner
|
11.5
|
13.2
|
11.0
|
11.0
|
10.0
|
11.0
|
33.0
|
Larry Walker
|
22.2
|
24.5
|
15.0
|
27.5
|
26.0
|
23.5
|
69.0
|
Kerry Wood*
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
Carlos Zambrano*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player
|
Dan
|
DaveNJnews
|
gingras
|
Gron99
|
hansjn
|
jimburb
|
|
Barry Bonds
|
60.8
|
62.0
|
59.5
|
63.8
|
58.2
|
59.1
|
|
Chris Carpenter*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.6
|
2.1
|
1.5
|
0.0
|
|
Roger Clemens
|
61.1
|
62.0
|
67.3
|
67.0
|
62.1
|
59.6
|
|
Johnny Damon*
|
1.5
|
4.0
|
12.1
|
0.8
|
2.5
|
0.5
|
|
Vladimir Guerrero
|
79.4
|
77.0
|
71.5
|
76.0
|
84.0
|
76.5
|
|
Livan Hernandez*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
|
Trevor Hoffman
|
77.5
|
82.0
|
77.9
|
82.0
|
79.0
|
82.0
|
|
Orlando Hudson*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Aubrey Huff*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.9
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Jason Isringhausen*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Andruw Jones*
|
7.5
|
9.0
|
19.7
|
10.1
|
14.5
|
17.0
|
|
Chipper Jones*
|
91.2
|
97.0
|
93.5
|
89.4
|
91.2
|
88.0
|
|
Jeff Kent
|
17.2
|
18.0
|
21.3
|
14.2
|
19.0
|
15.5
|
|
Carlos Lee*
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
2.6
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Brad Lidge*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.9
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Edgar Martinez
|
67.6
|
57.0
|
69.8
|
65.0
|
67.9
|
63.0
|
|
Hideki Matsui*
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
12.6
|
0.0
|
1.5
|
0.0
|
|
Fred McGriff
|
22.3
|
21.0
|
23.5
|
20.9
|
24.0
|
22.0
|
|
Kevin Millwood*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Jamie Moyer*
|
1.2
|
3.0
|
6.4
|
0.0
|
10.8
|
8.0
|
|
Mike Mussina
|
56.8
|
52.0
|
62.3
|
61.8
|
60.2
|
57.0
|
|
Manny Ramirez
|
26.7
|
25.0
|
14.4
|
25.0
|
24.5
|
19.0
|
|
Scott Rolen*
|
21.0
|
34.0
|
36.3
|
15.0
|
20.5
|
23.0
|
|
Johan Santana*
|
4.5
|
6.0
|
11.9
|
2.1
|
10.5
|
22.0
|
|
Curt Schilling
|
48.0
|
48.0
|
35.8
|
42.0
|
44.0
|
51.0
|
|
Gary Sheffield
|
12.2
|
13.0
|
14.2
|
11.7
|
18.8
|
13.0
|
|
Sammy Sosa
|
9.2
|
12.0
|
9.8
|
6.5
|
6.0
|
5.0
|
|
Jim Thome*
|
79.5
|
77.0
|
83.2
|
81.1
|
81.5
|
70.0
|
|
Omar Vizquel*
|
40.5
|
34.0
|
76.8
|
30.4
|
33.0
|
39.0
|
|
Billy Wagner
|
9.7
|
17.0
|
12.6
|
8.5
|
15.3
|
15.0
|
|
Larry Walker
|
23.3
|
17.0
|
29.1
|
23.3
|
35.5
|
22.0
|
|
Kerry Wood*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.4
|
0.0
|
2.5
|
0.0
|
|
Carlos Zambrano*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player
|
jpc1957
|
kseesar1
|
llozada
|
MarisFan61
|
mikeclaw
|
mrbryan
|
OwenH
|
Barry Bonds
|
54.0
|
69.0
|
61.3
|
59.0
|
57.8
|
64.0
|
63.0
|
Chris Carpenter*
|
0.0
|
4.0
|
0.0
|
3.0
|
8.5
|
3.5
|
0.0
|
Roger Clemens
|
56.0
|
55.0
|
61.1
|
59.0
|
59.0
|
63.5
|
65.0
|
Johnny Damon*
|
2.0
|
8.0
|
1.5
|
3.0
|
1.5
|
7.5
|
4.0
|
Vladimir Guerrero
|
77.0
|
64.0
|
79.9
|
87.0
|
76.3
|
86.5
|
81.0
|
Livan Hernandez*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
1.2
|
0.0
|
Trevor Hoffman
|
79.0
|
76.0
|
77.8
|
83.0
|
77.3
|
67.5
|
79.0
|
Orlando Hudson*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
Aubrey Huff*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
Jason Isringhausen*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
1.2
|
0.0
|
Andruw Jones*
|
15.0
|
35.0
|
7.5
|
21.0
|
13.3
|
25.8
|
13.0
|
Chipper Jones*
|
91.0
|
84.0
|
92.2
|
87.0
|
78.2
|
92.5
|
93.0
|
Jeff Kent
|
15.0
|
22.0
|
17.4
|
16.0
|
15.4
|
15.5
|
28.0
|
Carlos Lee*
|
0.0
|
15.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.6
|
0.0
|
Brad Lidge*
|
0.0
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Edgar Martinez
|
68.0
|
59.0
|
67.9
|
66.0
|
58.6
|
46.5
|
72.0
|
Hideki Matsui*
|
1.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
2.3
|
1.0
|
0.0
|
Fred McGriff
|
24.0
|
22.0
|
22.3
|
23.0
|
21.7
|
19.5
|
26.0
|
Kevin Millwood*
|
1.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
Jamie Moyer*
|
6.0
|
3.0
|
0.8
|
2.0
|
2.4
|
11.4
|
3.0
|
Mike Mussina
|
60.0
|
68.0
|
55.8
|
62.0
|
60.1
|
64.5
|
60.0
|
Manny Ramirez
|
24.0
|
34.0
|
25.7
|
29.0
|
24.1
|
29.6
|
25.0
|
Scott Rolen*
|
12.0
|
22.0
|
19.0
|
31.0
|
22.5
|
55.4
|
23.0
|
Johan Santana*
|
10.0
|
18.0
|
5.1
|
17.0
|
12.1
|
34.5
|
18.0
|
Curt Schilling
|
50.0
|
71.0
|
49.0
|
45.0
|
46.0
|
39.6
|
45.0
|
Gary Sheffield
|
13.0
|
44.0
|
10.2
|
14.0
|
12.3
|
12.5
|
16.0
|
Sammy Sosa
|
9.0
|
20.0
|
9.0
|
8.0
|
8.9
|
9.5
|
18.0
|
Jim Thome*
|
83.0
|
77.0
|
79.5
|
67.0
|
59.5
|
56.6
|
77.0
|
Omar Vizquel*
|
43.0
|
14.0
|
41.5
|
11.0
|
51.2
|
34.5
|
58.0
|
Billy Wagner
|
10.0
|
22.0
|
7.7
|
11.0
|
14.3
|
10.5
|
17.0
|
Larry Walker
|
25.0
|
33.0
|
23.3
|
24.0
|
23.5
|
15.5
|
29.0
|
Kerry Wood*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
3.4
|
0.0
|
Carlos Zambrano*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
0.0
|
1.4
|
0.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player
|
Rich Dunstan
|
ropalmer
|
sansho1
|
terrific
|
thoughtclaw
|
tigerlily
|
|
Barry Bonds
|
72.0
|
58.0
|
52.9
|
68.1
|
57.0
|
50.0
|
|
Chris Carpenter*
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
0.8
|
0.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
|
Roger Clemens
|
71.0
|
61.0
|
52.4
|
68.2
|
57.3
|
52.0
|
|
Johnny Damon*
|
2.0
|
4.0
|
4.5
|
2.2
|
3.1
|
1.0
|
|
Vladimir Guerrero
|
79.0
|
74.0
|
77.3
|
80.2
|
76.7
|
78.0
|
|
Livan Hernandez*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Trevor Hoffman
|
77.0
|
75.0
|
78.5
|
75.9
|
81.0
|
76.0
|
|
Orlando Hudson*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Aubrey Huff*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Jason Isringhausen*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
|
Andruw Jones*
|
12.0
|
6.0
|
26.3
|
8.9
|
7.6
|
20.0
|
|
Chipper Jones*
|
95.0
|
80.0
|
92.4
|
92.8
|
84.2
|
82.0
|
|
Jeff Kent
|
15.0
|
22.0
|
16.7
|
19.2
|
21.9
|
13.0
|
|
Carlos Lee*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.8
|
0.0
|
|
Brad Lidge*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Edgar Martinez
|
67.0
|
71.0
|
63.0
|
69.9
|
67.4
|
63.0
|
|
Hideki Matsui*
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Fred McGriff
|
18.0
|
21.0
|
27.4
|
20.0
|
25.4
|
20.0
|
|
Kevin Millwood*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
0.0
|
|
Jamie Moyer*
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
7.0
|
1.4
|
6.3
|
1.0
|
|
Mike Mussina
|
60.0
|
63.0
|
60.0
|
60.0
|
63.2
|
65.0
|
|
Manny Ramirez
|
35.0
|
28.0
|
22.8
|
33.3
|
23.8
|
21.0
|
|
Scott Rolen*
|
25.0
|
29.0
|
42.0
|
19.1
|
14.3
|
8.0
|
|
Johan Santana*
|
1.0
|
10.0
|
19.0
|
5.2
|
0.6
|
15.0
|
|
Curt Schilling
|
47.0
|
61.0
|
39.8
|
38.5
|
44.3
|
45.0
|
|
Gary Sheffield
|
16.0
|
15.0
|
12.4
|
14.1
|
17.6
|
12.0
|
|
Sammy Sosa
|
15.0
|
16.0
|
7.1
|
8.8
|
8.3
|
6.0
|
|
Jim Thome*
|
75.0
|
68.0
|
81.0
|
79.6
|
77.1
|
50.0
|
|
Omar Vizquel*
|
25.0
|
55.0
|
31.0
|
33.2
|
52.6
|
20.0
|
|
Billy Wagner
|
20.0
|
13.0
|
9.9
|
6.2
|
12.7
|
9.0
|
|
Larry Walker
|
25.0
|
27.0
|
24.0
|
14.9
|
26.9
|
17.0
|
|
Kerry Wood*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Carlos Zambrano*
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|