Germany (42%) and Norway (37%) have the best chance at winning the most gold medals, followed by the United States (25%) and Canada (15%).
Germany’s strengths are in biathlon (4 projected gold medals) and luge (3). Norway is dominant in cross-country skiing, where it is projected to win 5 gold medals.
Germany maxed out at 20 gold medals in its best simulation. Norway (23) and the United States (22) fared slightly better in individual simulations, though Germany still fared best overall.
NOTABLE EVENTS
Two of the sports you’ll probably be watching closely will be figure skating and ice hockey. In men’s figure skating, Nathan Chen is the USA’s best hope for a gold medal. He’s projected as having a 30% chance to win gold.
As a result of the NHL’s decision to discontinue participating in the Olympics, the United States is only projected as having a 20% chance to win bronze or silver in men’s hockey. The gold is likely to go to Russia (60%) or Canada (30%).
Note that Russia is projected for only 12 medals, as its athlete pool was weakened by doping allegations dating back to the Sochi Olympics (the IOC is permitting athletes to compete as "Olympic Athlete from Russia").
In women’s hockey, it’s a toss-up, with both the United States and Canada given a 50% chance to win the gold medal.
That epitomizes just how close the competition in the 2018 Pyeongchang Games will be.