The 2020 "How Well Do You Know Your BBWAA" contest is now closed. 15 entries were submitted.
Here are some results gathered from the entries submitted:
Average, High, Low, Range (Distance between high and low), and Standard Deviation
(Sorted by the player’s average predicted vote %)
*-First time on the BBWAA ballot
Player
|
Avg
|
High
|
Low
|
Range
|
Last Year’s Actual Results
|
Predicted Change from Last Year’s Actual Results
|
Derek Jeter*
|
99.2
|
100.0
|
97.0
|
3.0
|
-
|
|
Larry Walker
|
67.9
|
80.0
|
50.0
|
30.0
|
54.6
|
13.3
|
Curt Schilling
|
67.7
|
78.0
|
56.0
|
22.0
|
60.9
|
6.8
|
Roger Clemens
|
66.6
|
76.0
|
60.0
|
16.0
|
59.5
|
7.1
|
Barry Bonds
|
66.6
|
76.0
|
60.0
|
16.0
|
59.1
|
7.5
|
Omar Vizquel
|
47.3
|
56.0
|
40.0
|
16.0
|
42.8
|
4.5
|
Scott Rolen
|
27.4
|
38.0
|
18.0
|
20.0
|
17.2
|
10.2
|
Manny Ramirez
|
26.1
|
34.0
|
14.0
|
20.0
|
22.8
|
3.3
|
Todd Helton
|
24.2
|
36.0
|
15.0
|
21.0
|
16.5
|
7.7
|
Jeff Kent
|
21.7
|
32.0
|
11.0
|
21.0
|
18.1
|
3.6
|
Billy Wagner
|
21.4
|
28.0
|
16.0
|
12.0
|
16.7
|
4.7
|
Gary Sheffield
|
17.7
|
23.0
|
11.0
|
12.0
|
13.6
|
4.1
|
Andy Pettitte
|
14.5
|
23.0
|
9.0
|
14.0
|
9.9
|
4.6
|
Bobby Abreu*
|
12.0
|
40.0
|
2.0
|
38.0
|
-
|
|
Andruw Jones
|
10.5
|
14.0
|
8.0
|
6.0
|
7.5
|
3.0
|
Sammy Sosa
|
9.5
|
14.0
|
6.0
|
8.0
|
8.5
|
1.0
|
Jason Giambi*
|
7.0
|
16.0
|
-
|
16.0
|
-
|
|
Paul Konerko*
|
4.5
|
16.0
|
-
|
16.0
|
-
|
|
Cliff Lee*
|
3.5
|
10.0
|
-
|
10.0
|
-
|
|
Alfonso Soriano*
|
3.3
|
9.0
|
-
|
9.0
|
-
|
|
Eric Chavez*
|
1.1
|
5.0
|
-
|
5.0
|
-
|
|
Raul Ibanez*
|
1.1
|
5.0
|
-
|
5.0
|
-
|
|
Josh Beckett*
|
0.9
|
6.0
|
-
|
6.0
|
-
|
|
Adam Dunn*
|
0.7
|
3.0
|
-
|
3.0
|
-
|
|
Brian Roberts*
|
0.5
|
3.0
|
-
|
3.0
|
-
|
|
Rafael Furcal*
|
0.3
|
2.0
|
-
|
2.0
|
-
|
|
Carlos Pena*
|
0.3
|
2.0
|
-
|
2.0
|
-
|
|
Brad Penny*
|
0.3
|
2.0
|
-
|
2.0
|
-
|
|
Chone Figgins*
|
0.1
|
1.0
|
-
|
1.0
|
-
|
|
Jose Valverde*
|
0.1
|
1.0
|
-
|
1.0
|
-
|
|
Heath Bell*
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
J.J. Putz*
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Observations:
- If you go by the average prediction of our group, only one player will be elected this year: Derek Jeter, who should easily get elected in his first year on the ballot.
- 100% of the entries in our contest predict Derek Jeter will receive at least 75% of the vote. In fact, the lowest percentage he received was 97%.
- 5 of the 15 entries (33%) predict Larry Walker will receive at least 75% of the vote and be elected on this, his final ballot. However, the consensus of the overall entries predicts that he will come up short.
- 2 of the 15 entries predict that Roger Clemens get at least 75% of the vote this year, and both Barry Bonds and Curt Schilling received a prediction of 75% or higher on one ballot.
- Bobby Abreu, who is in his first year on the ballot, had the greatest range of predictions, from a low of 2% to a high of 40%.
- The group predicts Larry Walker, in his final year, will have the biggest gain over last year (+13.3 points), and also predicts that Scott Rolen will gain about 10 points over last year’s results.
Our predictions, as a group, imply that voters will, on average, vote for 6.2 players per ballot. If that turns out to be accurate, it would be the lowest figure since 2012 (when the average was 5.0). In recent years, the average has generally been 8 or above as we have seen several "loaded" ballots in a row, but the BBWAA has been pretty busy electing a high number of players, and whatever serious backlog there was appears to have been largely cleared. The historical average over the past 50 years is around 7.0.
So, can we put much faith in our consensus predictions? I went back and checked to see how we’ve done in our prior contests:
- In 2019, the average entry in our contest predicted 7.9 names per ballot. The actual was 8.0.
- In 2018, the average entry in our contest predicted 8.5 names per ballot. The actual also turned out to be 8.5.
- In 2017, the average entry in our contest predicted 8.0. The actual turned out to be 8.1.
That’s a pretty good track record, and even though, as they say in the investment industry, past performance is no guarantee of future results, I have a lot of faith in our group. Don’t be surprised if the overall actual average ballot contains something close to 6.2 names.
Results of the BBWAA Hall of Fame vote will be announced January 21, 2020, so we’ve got a fair amount of down time until that announcement. In the interim, I will be checking in on Ryan Thibodaux’s excellent "Hall of Fame tracker" and posting occasional articles with some observations about how the voting is tracking, as well as other potential topics along the way.
Thanks for reading,
Dan