Article In a Nutshell, For Those Who Don’t Like Details
- Nick Markakis has more than 2,000 hits
- He’s off to an exceptional start this season
- People are noticing
- He has a chance to reach 3,000 hits
- I don’t think he’ll do it
- Even if he reach 3,000 hits, I don’t think he’ll make the Hall of Fame
What’s all the Hubub, Bub?
(You can’t go wrong with a Looney Tunes reference…..)
In the past week or so, there have been at least 2 articles written about Nick Markakis and his career hit total, each one addressing the possibility that he could reach 3,000 hits. There’s one at MLB.com, and one at The Sporting News. I’m not intending to be overly critical of either of these, and, to be fair, neither one "predicts" that he will reach that milestone. They merely highlight what he’s done so far in his career, and suggest that he has a pretty reasonable chance despite being fairly inconspicuous.
To be honest, I wasn’t surprised by the premise of these articles. In the context of something else I was looking at, I stumbled across Markakis’ record a while back, and I remember noticing that, to my surprise, he had over 2,000 career hits at the start of 2018 (2,052 to be exact). I was surprised because I hadn’t thought much about Markakis in several years. I thought he had kind of faded into obscurity years ago, just meandering along, especially after leaving the Orioles and signing with the Braves. I didn’t think he had accumulated anywhere near 2,000 hits.
But there it is, in black and white on his playing record. And, once you examine his record, it’s easy to see how he’s achieved that level. Markakis has missed very little playing time, and from a hit standpoint, he’s been very consistent. Aside from his rookie year (2006) and a year in which he only played 104 games (2012), he has essentially been cranking 160-190 hits annually, like clockwork.
Despite that consistency, I think Markakis’ career has been somewhat disappointing in its arc. He essentially peaked at age 23 or 24:
- His peak home run season was in his second season (2007), when he hit 23 at age 23. Since that time, he’s more or less been in the teens in home runs, and 2 of the last 3 seasons he’s been in single digits.
- His peak in getting on base was in his third season (2008), when he drew 99 walks and exceeded a .400 on-base percentage at age 24. Since then, he’s generally been closer to about 60 walks a year, and OBP’s around .350. Not bad, but not what his promising start would have led us to expect.
- He showed good speed early on, stealing 18 bases in 2007 at age 23. Since then, he’s been averaging around 4 steals per season.
I don’t mean to knock him. He’s been a good player. But he didn’t show the type of growth one would normally expect. He’s been pretty unremarkable. The only categories in which he ever led the league in anything occurred in 2009, when he tied for the league lead in games played and sacrifice flies. He’s never been an All-Star, he’s never been mentioned on any MVP ballots. He’s not who we normally think of when we think of players who have crashed the 3,000 hit club.
The Club
If Markakis were to reach 3,000 career hits, he’d have to be the unlikeliest member of that club, wouldn’t he? As a quick review, here are the 32 members of the exclusive 3,000 hit club (statistics of active players through May 11):
Color Coding:
Green=Hall of Famer
Red = Ineligible for Hall of Fame
Blue=Not yet retired
Yellow=Retired but not yet appeared on ballot
(I am considering Ichiro Suzuki to be retired, even thought he hasn’t made it official yet)
Player
|
Hits
|
Batting Average
|
rWAR
|
Pete Rose
|
4,256
|
.303
|
79.7
|
Ty Cobb
|
4,191
|
.367
|
151.0
|
Hank Aaron
|
3,771
|
.305
|
143.0
|
Stan Musial
|
3,630
|
.331
|
128.2
|
Tris Speaker
|
3,514
|
.345
|
134.1
|
Derek Jeter
|
3,465
|
.310
|
72.4
|
Honus Wagner
|
3,430
|
.329
|
130.9
|
Carl Yastrzemski
|
3,419
|
.285
|
96.4
|
Paul Molitor
|
3,319
|
.306
|
75.7
|
Eddie Collins
|
3,314
|
.333
|
124.0
|
Willie Mays
|
3,283
|
.302
|
156.4
|
Eddie Murray
|
3,255
|
.287
|
68.7
|
Nap Lajoie
|
3,252
|
.339
|
107.4
|
Cal Ripken Jr.
|
3,184
|
.276
|
95.9
|
George Brett
|
3,154
|
.305
|
88.7
|
Paul Waner
|
3,152
|
.333
|
72.8
|
Robin Yount
|
3,142
|
.285
|
77.3
|
Tony Gwynn
|
3,141
|
.338
|
69.2
|
Alex Rodriguez
|
3,115
|
.295
|
117.8
|
Dave Winfield
|
3,110
|
.283
|
64.2
|
Ichiro Suzuki
|
3,089
|
.311
|
59.4
|
Adrián Beltré
|
3,079
|
.287
|
94.2
|
Craig Biggio
|
3,060
|
.281
|
65.5
|
Rickey Henderson
|
3,055
|
.279
|
111.2
|
Rod Carew
|
3,053
|
.328
|
81.3
|
Lou Brock
|
3,023
|
.293
|
45.3
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
3,020
|
.288
|
71.9
|
Cap Anson
|
3,011
|
.331
|
94.2
|
Wade Boggs
|
3,010
|
.328
|
91.4
|
Al Kaline
|
3,007
|
.297
|
92.8
|
Albert Pujols
|
3,005
|
.304
|
99.6
|
Roberto Clemente
|
3,000
|
.317
|
94.5
|
So, everyone in the 3,000 hit club is a Hall of Famer except for Rose (who is ineligible), Palmeiro (who has the steroid cloud surrounding him) and the ones who have not yet appeared on a ballot. I would have to say that, of the players yet to appear on a ballot, Jeter, Ichiro, Beltre, and Pujols are locks (barring any unforeseen scandals that might emerge). A-Rod….well, I guess we’ll have to see what the waters are like at that time.
Who is the worst player among that group? Well, the lowest rWAR belongs to Lou Brock (45.3), but Brock was a helluva player who made his mark on the game. He had his share of shortcomings….he wasn’t great at getting on base, he had a lot of defensive deficiencies…..but he was one of the greatest base stealers of all time, and he was an outstanding performer in the postseason. In my opinion, he’s a very deserving Hall of Famer.
Who else might be considered the "worst"? Biggio? Perhaps. In the minds of many, his lasting image might very well be that he limped across the 3,000 hit threshold at age 41, and basically was a player without much value at that point. But at his best, he was pretty good player. Maybe you don’t think he’s a top-10 second baseman (and I don’t either), but I believe most would have him in the top 15. No MVP award, but three top-10 finishes, and a 7-time All Star.
Palmeiro? Yes, he certainly has his detractors and he wasn’t thought of as a dominant player either at his position or during his era, and his connection to steroids sunk his Hall of Fame chances, but he is one of only 6 players who combined the twin milestones of 3,000 hits and 500 home runs (Mays, Aaron, Murray, Pujols, and Alex Rodriguez being the others).
Anyway, the point is, Markakis, even allowing for the fact that his career is not over yet, really doesn’t have a career that stacks up to any of these players - not in the stats, nor in his image, nor in prestige, nor in impact.
Markakis’ career rWAR heading into this season was 29.8, and even though that will go up (he already has 2.1 in 2018 as he has been outstanding in the early part of this year), I would say he still projects as someone likely to end up under 40.0 by the time his career wraps up. Maybe he’ll even end up north of 40.0. But, he’s 34 years old, and his rWAR is currently only about half of the next lowest total after Brock (which would be Ichiro’s 59.4). Even a strong surge in career stretch run would likely leave him well short of the career value that the others in the club have amassed.
Markakis is just simply not in the same class as these players. But the question becomes….is Markakis well positioned to reach 3,000 hits?
Is He Likely To Do It?
The Sporting News article says that Nick Markakis has "more than a fighter’s chance to reach 3,000". The MLB.com article references the Bill James Favorite Toy tool, which assesses his chance at 28% (of course, that also implies a 72% chance that he won’t). The Favorite Toy projects Markakis to play 4.5 more years, and that he will end up with 2,796 hits.
The MLB.com article mentions that Markakis is ahead of the pace of 9 players who eventually reached 3,000 hits (Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Lou Brock, Rickey Henderson, Ichiro Suzuki, Honus Wagner, Cap Anson, Craig Biggio, and Dave Winfield), although it also concedes that the first 7 of those are not really good comps for Markakis for a variety of reasons. That leaves Biggio and Winfield as the "closest" comps, while also acknowledging that Markakis’ track record is nowhere near even those 2 players. (The Sporting News article points out that Markakis is also ahead of the pace of a 10th member of the club, Rafael Palmeiro)
A couple of things to add from my perspective:
Winfield got his 3,000th hit in his age 41 season. He was able to play well into his 40’s because:
1) He could still crank out home runs, and
2) He was still "Dave Winfield"
What I mean by that last point was that Winfield was still a star, and as long as he still had the desire to play and he was still able to hit .270 and hit 20 homers a season, someone was likely willing to play him. He was still well respected, and, even as late as age 40, he was still finishing high in the MVP voting. He was still a star.
Biggio was another one whose pace Markakis is ahead of. However:
1) He could still crank out home runs
2) He was still "Craig Biggio"
3) He was the face of the franchise
On that last point…..Biggio, of course, was a one-team player, the one player who (with the possible exception of Jeff Bagwell) was the face of the Houston Astros franchise. He was going to be given every chance to reach 3,000, and he did, crossing the threshold halfway through his final season.
In short, I think Biggio and Winfield don’t make for good comps for Markakis when evaluating the likelihood of reaching the 3,000 hit level. Even as their skills diminished, they were able to keep playing enough at an advanced age to reach the 3,000 hit level.
The MLB.com article also makes a point that there are 93 players with 2,000 or more hits through age 33 (I actually get 92 when I pull the data, but, regardless), and of those, 25 made it to 3,000 hits (the article was written just before Pujols reached 3,000). It also pointed out that Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano are on that list, so you can make a reasonable assumption that the success rate is/will be 28 out of 93. That percentage (30%) happens to be right about what the Favorite Toy would imply as a probability of this happening for Markakis.
Of course, it should be said, that the list of 93 players includes the likes of Ty Cobb, who had almost 2,900 hits by that age. Cobb’s ability to reach 3,000 has no relevance for Markakis.
Or, Hank Aaron and Robin Yount, each with over 2,600 through age 33. Their success really has no bearing on Markakis either. They were better players, and much further ahead.
And so on…..a bunch of guys who were a whole lot better than Markakis, and several of whom had a whole lot more hits than he did.
The fact is that, of the players with 2,000 or more hits through age 33, Markakis is only #73 on that list, because the approach makes the mistake of setting the criteria with a near-minimum (2,000 hits) and with no maximum. So, the list is overflowing with a bunch of players who were a whole lot better and a whole lot further along than Markakis on the road to 3,000 hits.
Looking at the list of career hits through age 33 even closer…..
The 5 immediately above Markakis are Joe Kelley, Charlie Gehringer, Nap Lajoie, Ryne Sandberg, and Ken Griffey Jr. The 5 immediately below Markakis are Tim Raines, Bobby Doerr, Billy Williams, Tony Gwynn, and Del Ennis. All are Hall of Famers (except for Ennis), but Gwynn and Lajoie are the ones from that group who reached 3,000. So, even among that exceptional group, most of whom were considerably better than Markakis, only 20% of them reached 3,000 hits. That should speak volumes about how difficult it is.
So, what would happen if you pulled a different list, of those who are much closer to Markakis’ total, one that puts Markakis more in the middle? What if you take those within 100 hits either direction (1,952 to 2,152) by age 33? That would give you, something we can label "Markakis career hits +/- 5%"
Narrowing the query to that range reduces the number from 92 to 57 players (with Markakis being 23rd on the list, much closer to the middle than the previous list). Here they are, sorted by hits through 33, with the eventual 3,000 hit club members highlighted in yellow, and Markakis in gray:
Player
|
Hits Through Age 33 Season
|
Joe Torre
|
2,149
|
Orlando Cepeda
|
2,144
|
Vladimir Guerrero
|
2,136
|
Sherry Magee
|
2,134
|
Ted Simmons
|
2,116
|
Buddy Bell
|
2,115
|
Carl Yastrzemski
|
2,112
|
Mickey Mantle
|
2,108
|
Johnny Damon
|
2,102
|
Brooks Robinson
|
2,099
|
George Brett
|
2,095
|
George Sisler
|
2,094
|
Charlie Grimm
|
2,092
|
Willie Davis
|
2,091
|
Eddie Mathews
|
2,088
|
George Van Haltren
|
2,086
|
Joe Sewell
|
2,083
|
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
2,080
|
Ryne Sandberg
|
2,080
|
Nap Lajoie
|
2,078
|
Charlie Gehringer
|
2,055
|
Joe Kelley
|
2,055
|
Nick Markakis
|
2,052
|
Tim Raines
|
2,050
|
Bobby Doerr
|
2,042
|
Billy Williams
|
2,040
|
Tony Gwynn
|
2,039
|
Del Ennis
|
2,038
|
Jimmy Sheckard
|
2,035
|
Arky Vaughan
|
2,032
|
Pie Traynor
|
2,030
|
Al Oliver
|
2,028
|
Joe Cronin
|
2,027
|
Jimmy Rollins
|
2,024
|
Alan Trammell
|
2,022
|
Don Mattingly
|
2,021
|
Juan Pierre
|
2,020
|
Keith Hernandez
|
2,010
|
Harvey Kuenn
|
2,004
|
Lou Brock
|
2,001
|
Rickey Henderson
|
2,000
|
Red Schoendienst
|
2,000
|
Dick Bartell
|
1,997
|
Kirby Puckett
|
1,996
|
Fred Clarke
|
1,987
|
Cesar Cedeno
|
1,983
|
Max Carey
|
1,980
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
1,975
|
Jose Reyes
|
1,972
|
Steve Garvey
|
1,968
|
Clyde Milan
|
1,966
|
Wade Boggs
|
1,965
|
Bill Buckner
|
1,964
|
George Kell
|
1,962
|
John Ward
|
1,961
|
Sammy Sosa
|
1,955
|
Bill Mazeroski
|
1,955
|
Lots of good players of all shapes and sizes and talents. 31 of the 57 are in the Hall of Fame. But, only 8 of the 57 players on this list (about 14%) eventually reached 3,000 hits, or about half the likelihood implied by the Favorite Toy. 3 of the 22 above him reached 3,000 hits. That’s also 14%. 5 of the 34 below him reached 3,000 hits. That’s roughly 15%.
So, I think that’s a better indicator of his chances. I think 28%, in his case, is too high. 10-15% sounds more like it to me.
How about one more list…..looking at players what players did from age 34 on?
There are 56 players who collected 950 or more hits from age 34 to the end of their careers. Again, many of these players, like Pete Rose, Cap Anson, Ichiro Suzuki, Honus Wagner, Paul Molitor, Ty Cobb, etc., have very little to do with the chances of Nick Markakis. So who does? Who holds a reasonable model for Markakis to follow?
As one of the members in the Bill James Online Reader Posts thread on this topic suggests, Jeff Conine might be a good precedent. Conine was a good but not great player, and from age 34 on, he played another 8 seasons and just over 1,000 games and just over 1,000 hits, hitting .283 and getting about 12 home runs a season. Markakis is a better player than Conine, and he could follow that route.
Or, as the MLB.com article suggests, he could follow the precedent of Raul Ibanez, who had virtually no career totals before the age of 30, but was a very good player in his 30’s. Ibanez generated 1,198 hits from age 34 on. Of course, Ibanez had such a strange career arc, I’m not sure I’d model anyone after him.
Other non-Hall of Famers that provide hope for Markakis by getting 950 or more hits at age 34 or later include the likes of Mickey Vernon, Brian Downing, and Moises Alou. There are others of fairly recent vintage who would be in this category (including the likes of Brett Butler, Julio Franco, Dave Parker, Steve Finley, and Omar Vizquel) but I’m not sure that any of them are good comps for Markakis.
So, it’s been done, and it’s been done by players that can be considered to have been somewhat comparable to Markakis. But I think any way you reasonably approach it, I’d say it’s a longshot.
And What If He Does Make It?
If Markakis were to reach 3,000 hits, it would pose a bit of a dilemma for Hall of Fame voters. Would they really vote for Markakis simply because he reaches a threshold, even one as glamorous as the 3,000 hit club? I’m sure many would automatically and reflexively say "yes", that, barring steroids or cheating or some other similar misconduct, 3,000 hits represents a golden ticket to Cooperstown.
In some weird way, I’m almost rooting for Markakis to get there because it would be interesting to see how the vote would go. Would a player who has clearly demonstrated that he’s not a Hall of Famer by any stretch of the imagination be able to get elected simply because he reached that particular milestone?
My guess is that he would not.
I think there would be enough voters to see through the smokescreen. It reminds me a little of the concern that was unfolding about 3 decades ago, when Dave Kingman exceeded 400 home runs, and every other previous player who had achieved that level had been elected to the Hall of Fame. When Kingman came up on the ballot, though, he received less than 1% of the vote. The voters were aware of the milestone, but looked at the candidate in his entirety, and soundly rejected the candidate. Kingman may have achieved membership in an exclusive club, but he was no Hall of Famer. And now, even setting aside the cases of those with steroid connections, there have been several 400+ home run hitters who didn’t get much consideration from the Hall: Fred McGriff (although he’s still on the ballot, but with modest support). Carlos Delgado, Darrell Evans. When Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Alfonso Soriano, and Mark Teixeira come up for consideration in the not-too-distant future, they surely won’t get much more than a passing glance by the voters. Andruw Jones has over 400 home runs, a stellar defensive record in center field, and over 60 rWAR, and he only received about 7% of the vote. The 400 home run threshold was blasted out of the water years ago, and we haven’t looked back since.
Although I think the 3,000 hit club is more prestigious than the 400 homer club ever was, I do think the same thing will apply to Markakis if he reaches 3,000 hits. I think some voters would automatically vote for him because that, but I think most wouldn’t.
Hall of Famers aren’t just about numbers or milestones. They have to appeal to us in some way that makes them worthy of a special kind of remembrance. Even in Bill James’ Hall of Fame Monitor (at least in the version still used on baseball-reference.com), a player receives 40 points for 3,000 career hits. Now 40 points in the context of that tool is a lot. But it doesn’t get you all the way there by itself.
Unless he achieves something amazing over the next few seasons, I think Markakis will fall well short by that standard. I trust the voters will use good sense and reject the notion of him as a Hall of Famer even if he joins the 3,000 hit club.
Wrapping it Up
Markakis strains our concept of what a 3,000 hit player could be. The evidence is that everyone in the 3,000 hit club can be reasonably described as, at the very least, a very good player. Markakis is certainly not outstanding. I wouldn’t even describe him as "very good". He’s good. He’s a good player. But I question whether he will be able to get there. 900 hits is a long ways to go.
Of course, none of know what will happen for sure. I don’t disagree that Markakis has a shot. I just don’t think he’ll get there.
Here’s what I think….I think he’ll be in the "close but no cigar category". I’m thinking Al Oliver. I’m thinking Johnny Damon. I’m thinking Rusty Staub. I’m thinking Bill Buckner. I’m thinking Harold Baines. I’m thinking Vada Pinson. These are all players that ended up with 2,700 – 2,900 hits. They all gave it a bit of a run, but they all ended up between 5-10% short. I think all of those players are much better comps for Markakis than anyone that’s in the 3,000 hit club. And none of them made it.
Below are the top 10 comps through age 33 for Markakis using Similarity Scores. As you know, Similarity Scores look at basic hitting stats and make some adjustments for defensive position. I used the list on Seamheads.com (which differs slightly from the one on baseball-reference.com) because I find it easier to work with the results:
#
|
Players
|
Pos
|
Score
|
G
|
AB
|
H
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
rWAR
|
|
Nick Markakis
|
RF
|
1,000
|
1,839
|
7,135
|
2,052
|
165
|
876
|
762
|
63
|
.288
|
.358
|
29.8
|
|
Average of top 10 comps
|
|
|
1,812
|
6,808
|
1,962
|
162
|
873
|
596
|
221
|
.288
|
.345
|
41.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
Cesar Cedeno
|
CF
|
918
|
1,858
|
6,936
|
1,983
|
190
|
921
|
633
|
535
|
.286
|
.347
|
52.1
|
2
|
Johnny Damon
|
CF
|
916
|
1,845
|
7,303
|
2,102
|
166
|
843
|
731
|
333
|
.288
|
.353
|
42.2
|
3
|
Buddy Bell
|
3B
|
903
|
1,978
|
7,500
|
2,115
|
157
|
918
|
659
|
48
|
.282
|
.340
|
61.2
|
4
|
Al Oliver
|
CF
|
893
|
1,734
|
6,699
|
2,028
|
180
|
999
|
367
|
71
|
.303
|
.342
|
37.2
|
5
|
Gary Matthews
|
LF
|
888
|
1,724
|
6,318
|
1,806
|
197
|
869
|
802
|
178
|
.286
|
.365
|
30.4
|
6
|
Melky Cabrera
|
LF
|
884
|
1,676
|
6,250
|
1,786
|
131
|
768
|
473
|
98
|
.286
|
.335
|
21.0
|
7
|
Carney Lansford
|
3B
|
883
|
1,722
|
6,646
|
1,943
|
144
|
798
|
510
|
217
|
.292
|
.345
|
37.9
|
8
|
Willie Davis
|
CF
|
880
|
1,952
|
7,495
|
2,091
|
154
|
849
|
350
|
335
|
.279
|
.312
|
54.4
|
9
|
Keith Hernandez
|
1B
|
875
|
1,875
|
6,677
|
2,010
|
146
|
989
|
998
|
96
|
.301
|
.391
|
58.7
|
10
|
Claudell Washington
|
RF
|
874
|
1,757
|
6,255
|
1,751
|
150
|
773
|
437
|
295
|
.280
|
.328
|
18.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You probably already noticed three things about that list right away:
1) None of his top 10 comps reached 3,000 hits
2) Markakis is, overall, not as valuable of a player (at least according to rWAR) as most of his top comps.
3) None of his top 10 comps are in the Hall of Fame
The first 2 (Cedeno and Damon) I don’t think are great comps since speed was a big part of their games, but they do compare well in the hitting categories. Just in eyeballing the list, I think Al Oliver is actually the best comp, taking everything into consideration (although Markakis certainly drew a lot more walks).
Oliver is an interesting comparison, though, so let’s take a closer look. He had 2,028 hits heading into his age 34 season, essentially the same as Markakis.
Starting from that point in his career, over his next 3 seasons (ages 34-36), had a nice little run. He made the All Star team 3 times, led the league in doubles twice, RBI once, won a batting crown, and finished as high as 3rd in the MVP voting. His age 35 season (1982) may have been the best of his entire career. It was a nice run.
Guess what? Even with that stretch of years in his mid-30’s, he still didn’t reach 3,000 hits, and didn’t even get particularly close. He ended up with 2,743. He hit .300 at age 37, but basically didn’t have power left. He played one more year at age 38, and that was it. No one could use him anymore.
Now, Markakis isn’t doomed to Oliver’s fate. That’s one case, and no two players are identical. But, that seems to me to be a more likely path for Markakis, that he’ll hang around, and maybe have another good season or two. Maybe he’s changed. Maybe he’ll have a renaissance. Maybe he’s become a much different and more valuable player on the heels of his recent launch angle change. Or, maybe his hot start to this season is just a hot start and nothing more, and he’s likely to come up short.
There are a few things to point out:
1) It’s a long way to Tipperary (it’s a long way to go)
2) It’s a long way to the top (if you wanna rock ‘n’ roll)
3) It’s a long way to 3,000 hits when you’re a nondescript player in your mid-30’s and you still have 30% left to go to reach your destination
I wish Nick good luck. But, I’m betting against him.
Thanks for reading,
Dan