For the last couple years I’ve posted bold predictions about the coming baseball season. I totally started the trend: no one else in the blogosphere was doing anything like that before I came along. Everywhere you’d look, you’d read nothing but calm and sensible projections about the coming baseball season. You’d get stuff like: "Why the Dodgers can win 76 games this year" and "Prince Fielder’s Goal: a Sensible .270 Batting Average." The early days of internet sports writing was muy boring, until I came along with the entirely new and unique idea of making a bunch of wildly speculative guesses about the sporting, on the slim chance that I’d get one-in-ten guesses right. So you can all thank me for that.
But innovation is always trailed by imitation, and I am no longer the prime peddler of provocative prognostications. There are now at least a dozen of websites whose authors make their scratch by tossing out ambitious and unlikely projections for the coming year.
And this proliferation of aggressive speculations isn’t reserved to the sports pages: it has infecting all spheres of our once-genial discourse. I have lately learned, for instance, that some writers are suggesting that Donald Trump will be a nominee for President. This, friends, is absurdity taken too far: it is lunacy taken past all sensible restraint. We have taken our folly beyond its proper borders. We must seek, now, the true path to wisdom.
To that goal, I am offering something different this year. Instead of presenting a list of outlandish and entertaining predictions about the coming baseball season, I’ll be offering a list of forty things that almost certainly will happen in 2016. Readers of the BJOL, I present my list of forty un-bold predictions for the games to come.
For your sanity and mine.
* * *
1. Mike Trout will have an MVP year, and not win the MVP. We’re starting with an easy one: Mike Trout will put up yet another banner season for the Angels, and the voters will vote for someone else. Always the bridesmaid, Trout.
2. Bryce Harper will be less good than he was last year, but the Nationals will be much better. Count me as the rare saber-type who gives some credit to intangibles like chemistry: I think the Nats had a miserable clubhouse last year, and I think they’ll have a better one this year, if only because Dusty Baker’s non-thinking about bullpen usage patterns is a slight improvement over Matt Williams’ fixed-in-concrete plans for his relievers. And I love Bryce Harper, but it’s tough to replicate a 10.0 WAR season.
3. The Red Sox will also be better. Another un-bold prediction here: the Red Sox will win more games with David Price and Craig Kimbrel than they managed to win without them.
4. Baltimore eschews the chop, and hits a cray number of dingers. I meant to write ‘crazy’, but the z-key stuck, and I decided to go with it. Just trying to keep up with the legions of millennials who read the BJOL on their smart watches.
5. The Phillies will be terrible. Though not without their joys. Maikel Franco might pace the NL in homers, if Giancarlo misses time. Speaking of Giancarlo…
6. Giancarlo Stanton will hit the DL this year. The Marlins slugger will end up on the shelf, after sustaining a muscle strain during one of the 93 intentional walks he’ll receive this year. And just to prove I’m not picking on Stanton…
7. Troy Tulowitzski will also get injured. I love Tulo, but the man is overdue.
8. The Cubs will be really good. I don’t know if you noticed this, but the Cubs won 97 games last year, and then added Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and John Lackey to their roster during the off-season. Those are some wicked smaht moves, Theo.
9. That new Angels shortstop will make at least one play at shortstop that we’ve never seen before. Andrelton Simmons is spectacular, isn’t he?
10. Freddie Freeman will mistakenly address a teammate by the wrong name during a clubhouse interaction, resulting in an awkward moment for everyone. Have you looked at the Braves roster this year? Who are these guys?
11. Wade Davis will give up an earned run. I mean, a 0.00 ERA is pretty unlikely, right? On a semi-related note…
12. Aroldis Chapman will strike out the side. Has Chapman ever done that before? I bet it happens at least once in 2016.
13. Some team that the pundits and prognosticators don’t like will end up making the playoffs. Here’s a hint: it’s going to be the Royals. Again.
14. Some team that the pundits and prognosticators like will have a disappointing season. Could be the Dodgers. Could be the Jays. Gonna be the Mets.
15. Salvador Perez will catch more games than any other catcher this year. That man is tough. Sal for President!
16. An ace pitcher’s season will end with an appointment for Tommy John surgery. Is there a place to find a list of all the pitchers who have already had this surgery, so that I can predict which ones are due? TJ is as common for pitchers as an appendectomy is for McMurdo Station researchers.
17. Some closers will be ineffective, and will lose their closing job. This will probably happen three times for the Tigers.
18. At least one failed starter will convert to the bullpen and be tremendously successful. Hope springs eternal, Rick Porcello.
19. Billy Hamilton will continue to provide surprising value for a guy with an OPS under .600. He posted a 1.9 WAR last year in 114 games. If I could make one management decision in baseball, I’d have the Reds let Hamilton hit exclusively as a right-hander. It’s his natural side, and they’re ruining him by forcing this experiment in switch hitting. This drives me cray.
20. The Golden State Warriors will win the NBA championship. My un-boldness isn’t limited to baseball, and Steph Curry is a goddamn wonder.
21. Dan Shaughnessy will use his Cooperstown speech to stump for the guy on our masthead, urging the Hall to recognize the important contributions Bill James has made to the sport. Subsequent to that, a first snowflake will be spotted in hell.
22. A Y-named outfielder (Yasiel, Yoenis) will make a wild throw from the outfield that completely misses the intended target, and it will be awesome. I don’t care if it’s a stupid play…is there anything better in baseball than a strong-armed outfielder winding up to gun down a runner? More crazy throws, please!
23. For the 67th straight season, the best broadcaster in baseball will be in the Dodgers booth. Enjoy him while you can, folks. No one calls a game better than Vin.
24. Clayton Kershaw will nab at least one of the categories for the pitcher’s Triple Crown. There is a good chance, of course, that he’ll win all three of them.
25. Francisco Liriano will out-pitch Adam Wainwright, winning the first game of the season. Okay, so I’m a little late in posting these. Forgive me.
26. Evan Longoria will continue being the first hitter you think about when you think about the Rays lineup. If you asked me to name anyone else in that lineup, I don’t think I’d get anyone else except Kiermaier. Is James Loney still on that team? I have no idea. Why did anyone think baseball in Tampa Bay would be a good idea?
27. I will continue mixing up Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe. I know that one of them plays second base, and one plays third, but I can’t tell you which one plays where. Are they both white guys? I assume they are. I bet they both have facial hair, too…beards. Everyone in Minnesota has a beard, I think, but I’m rambling now. Anyway, they had identical .307 on-base averages last year.
28. The Milwaukee Brewers will not win the NL Central. Lots of teams are vying for the middle division in the senior circuit. The Brewers are not one of them.
29. I will get annoyed by instant replay by mid-April, and will pen an article about how stupid it is by June or July. Or August…I’m crap with deadlines right now.
30. There will be at least one GIF-worthy play involving Bartolo Colon this year. It will probably happen when he’s at bat. I loveEl Barto.
31. At some point, a fight will occur when one player exhibits too much joy about something, and another player takes umbrage about it. Here’s hoping that this year’s old-school versus new-school fight doesn’t take place in the National’s dugout.
32. Daniel Murphy will not hit 45 homers for the Nationals this year. Murphy had a hot postseason, but there’s no Bautista-esque leap forward coming for the second sacker.
33. Seattle will continue to exist as a fine American city, and their baseball team will continue not winning the World Series. I’ve never been to Seattle, but I’m sure it’s great.
34. San Diego: same, same. I have been to San Diego, and it’s a lovely city. Just terrific. Everyone should go visit.
35. Adrian Beltre will be the most valuable player on the Rangers this year. I think he’s their best player every year, right? Few players are easier to root for than Adrian Beltre.
36. The Rockies will lead the NL in runs scored, and probably finish last in the West. At least there are some fun players coming up for the Rox.
37. Adam LaRoche is going to play baseball this year. I mean, he’s under contract, right? (Wait…what happened?)
38. Jose Altuve will also play baseball, and will collect 200 hits. I lovelovelove Jose Altuve. What a fun player he is. Baseball is fun. It’s Opening Day!
39. The great David Ortiz will reach the playoffs once more, capping off a brilliant career. It’s been a joy having David Ortiz as one of ours, and I sure hope the Red Sox get one more October for Papi.
40. I’ll fail to mention at least one team in this prediction article. And that team, so scorned, will make a surprise run to the playoffs.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in New Zealand. He welcomes comments, suggestions, and questions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com