Will a Colorado Rockie (which, by the way, I believe is the proper singular form of "Rockies") ever be elected into the Hall of Fame?
The natural answer to that kind of a question is "yes", mostly because, well, "ever" is a very, very long time. If you say "yes", you may eventually be proven correct. If you say "no", you can never really be correct….you can only be correct "so far".
So maybe the better question is…how likely is it for a Rockie to be elected to the Hall of Fame? Are there special obstacles to that "Rockie" Road? Let’s examine that.
First of all, let’s eliminate pitchers. I think it’s highly unlikely , given the current setup in Colorado, that a Rockie pitcher would be elected to the Hall. It’s hard to envision that, isn’t it? What pitcher is likely to sustain a Hall of Fame career pitching in those conditions? And even if a pitcher were able to achieve some success, he would probably try and get out of Dodge (or at least Denver) as fast as possible. Who has been the best pitcher that the Rockies have come up with so far? Ubaldo Jimenez? Jorge De La Rosa? Brian Fuentes?
How have some notable star pitchers (including several relatively recently inducted Hall of Famers) performed while visiting Coors?
- Greg Maddux was 8-2 at Coors, but with a 5.19 ERA.
- Randy Johnson was 7-5, 4.01 (which all things considered, wasn’t too shabby).
- Curt Schilling was 4-4, 5.51.
- Pedro Martinez only pitched 4 times there, so it’s a small sample, but he went 1-2 with a 4.97 ERA.
- John Smoltz pitched 14 times there, half starts and half relief appearances, going 3-2, 4.20, with 3 saves.
- Tom Glavine didn’t do too bad….3-3, 3.68 in 85 IP.
- Clayton Kershaw, so far, is 8-3, 4.63.
Now, granted, those are mostly based on fairly small sample sizes. Some of those weren’t too bad, and yes, you can certainly win at Coors….but it’s hard to consistently put up sterling pitching lines. How would these top pitchers fared in their careers if they pitched primarily at Coors? Would they solve it if they pitched there often enough? Or, would they generally struggle? How would they be perceived?
So, I wouldn’t say it’s impossible for a pitcher to put together a Hall of Fame career while pitching mostly in Colorado, but it is hard for me to envision it. So, for purposes of discussion, let’s eliminate them from consideration.
How about hitters? If pitchers have the home field working against them, seems like we could surely get some Hall of Fame hitters, right?
Not necessarily. Sure, Colorado hitters typically put up some very impressive stat lines due to Coors, but the problem seems to be that everybody knows that. What typically happens is that voters, when evaluating hitters’ careers, see the large stat splits between how someone like Larry Walker or Todd Helton performs at Coors vs. other ballparks, and they tend to dismiss their overall records as simply being by-products of being unduly influenced by a favorable home park. After all, we’ve gotten used to seeing ordinary ballplayers like Vinny Castilla and Dante Bichette become stars there.
Which leads to a quick sidebar:
The Coors Field All-Stars
These are my selections for the best stat lines using data only from Coors Field, with HR & RBI in seasonal notation (per 162 games), minimum 100 games at Coors. And if you aren’t familiar with "tOPS+", we’ll define it in a second, but it’s something to take note of:
First team:
Pos
|
Player
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
HR
|
RBI
|
OPS
|
tOPS+
|
C
|
Jeff Reed
|
.300
|
.391
|
.499
|
20
|
73
|
.890
|
155
|
1B
|
Andres Galarraga
|
.333
|
.394
|
.631
|
48
|
171
|
1.025
|
140
|
2B
|
Terry Shumpert
|
.342
|
.408
|
.574
|
15
|
62
|
.982
|
170
|
3B
|
Vinny Castilla
|
.333
|
.380
|
.609
|
44
|
141
|
.989
|
146
|
SS
|
Troy Tulowitzki
|
.320
|
.392
|
.557
|
33
|
119
|
.949
|
119
|
OF
|
Dante Bichette
|
.358
|
.394
|
.641
|
45
|
178
|
1.035
|
146
|
OF
|
Carlos Gonzalez
|
.330
|
.390
|
.618
|
40
|
132
|
1.008
|
131
|
OF
|
Larry Walker
|
.381
|
.462
|
.710
|
42
|
141
|
1.172
|
141
|
Second Team:
Pos
|
Player
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
HR
|
RBI
|
OPS
|
tOPS+
|
C
|
Wilin Rosario
|
.309
|
.347
|
.533
|
28
|
103
|
.880
|
126
|
1B
|
Todd Helton
|
.345
|
.441
|
.607
|
32
|
122
|
1.048
|
119
|
2B
|
Eric Young
|
.352
|
.431
|
.489
|
12
|
79
|
.920
|
145
|
3B
|
Jeff Cirillo
|
.378
|
.438
|
.576
|
19
|
120
|
1.013
|
154
|
SS
|
Neifi Perez
|
.321
|
.346
|
.481
|
15
|
89
|
.828
|
145
|
OF
|
Todd Hollandsworth
|
.349
|
.402
|
.620
|
30
|
95
|
1.022
|
164
|
OF
|
Corey Dickerson
|
.360
|
.414
|
.679
|
31
|
102
|
1.093
|
160
|
OF
|
Matt Holliday
|
.361
|
.427
|
.656
|
39
|
141
|
1.082
|
139
|
As mentioned, in the table, you’ll see tOPS+ , which some of you may not be familiar with. It’s not the same as OPS+. Baseball-reference-com defines tOPS+ this way:
"This is the OPS for split relative to Player’s Total OPS. A number greater than 100 indicates this batter did better than usual in this split. A number less than 100 indicates that the batter did worse than usual in this split."
So, in this context, it gives a quick read on how much advantage a player had in his Coors Field vs. non-Coors field data split. The higher the number, the more unbalanced the split. I took that figure into consideration when deciding which players to include in the tables.
My favorite figures in all of this are the RBI rates per 162 games for Bichette and Galarraga….both over 170 RBI per 162 games while playing there.
I also love Terry Shumpert’s split. He was a .342 hitter at Coors in roughly 600 plate appearances. If you remove Coors data from his career numbers, he’s a .230 hitter. His 170 tOPS+ was the highest I saw for any player with more than 100 games at Coors except for Drew Stubbs, who had a figure of 173 (Stubbs hit .331 at Coors with 29 HR’s and 77 RBI per 162 games there, but he only played about 100 games at Coors).
You may also notice that the tOPS+ split figure for both Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton’s was 119. That’s still a pretty significant split, as Coors certainly helped them quite a bit, but the split was not as dramatic as most of the others in the tables. They’re both good players, and their success is not completely attributable to playing at Coors. Helton on the road hit .286 with a robust .386 OBP, roughly 20 HR’s and 80 RBI’s per 162 games outside of Coors. Certainly not as stellar as his Coors stats....but not bad either.
Back to the Article – and Larry Walker
The Rockies have only been around for 24 years, so it’s really not a surprise, in and of itself, that they don’t have any Hall of Famers yet. They’re still a pretty young franchise. However, I do think that we have seen how the mindset of some of the voters can work against a Colorado candidate.
To date, Larry Walker has been the best Hall of Fame candidate that has played for Colorado. Joe Posnanski wrote a compelling case in favor of Walker on his web site the other day, and I recommend you read his piece, and I’ll try not to be too redundant with anything he wrote. If I had a ballot, I don't think Walker would be among my top 10, but, if I were allowed to vote for more than 10, I would vote for him.
For those who don't support his candidacy, there are many reasons that someone might adhere to. He did get hurt a lot, and his career totals aren’t overly impressive. He’s not a slam dunk.
But, a significant obstacle that Walker faces in many voters’ eyes is that his accomplishments are often dismissed as being primarily a by-product of playing most of his career with Coors Field as his home. They see his .313 lifetime average and say, "yeah, well, he hit .381 at Coors but only about .280 elsewhere", and they dismiss it. They chalk up the 4 years of hitting over .350 (including 3 batting titles) and the MVP as being attributable to playing at Coors.
However…..I think that isn’t totally fair to Walker. Yes, he benefitted from a very favorable home park. However, I do think he was a legitimately a very good ballplayer, and perhaps even a great one. By the time he left Montreal to go to Colorado, Walker was already one of the emerging stars in the league, a terrific all-around talent who could hit for average, get on base, steal bases, field his position, and he had a strong arm. He had already won 2 Gold Gloves, and was improving as a hitter. People often overlook his last pre-Rockie season (1994, Montreal). Walker was 27 years old, and in 103 games (1994 being a strike season), Walker hit .322 with a .394 OBP. He also hit 44 doubles. That’s 44 doubles in just over 100 games, which was on a pace to challenge Earl Webb’s all-time mark of 67. (Note, Biggio also hit 44 that same year). Walker was hitting a double roughly once every 10 plate appearances.
And in that remarkable 1997 MVP season for Colorado, he had an interesting stat line. He hit .346 with a .443 OBP and 29 HR’s…..on the road. Yes, in some of his other seasons with the Rockies, his home/road splits were wider, but Larry Walker was a very good player regardless of his surroundings.
I don’t expect Larry Walker to be elected on the writers’ ballot. He’s tallying about 24% of the public vote on the Hall of Fame Tracker as I write this, although he would be at around 30% (or higher) if voters were allowed to vote for more than 10 (at least according to those voters who have expressed their intent). He’s on his 7th ballot, so he is running out of time, and his best bet might be when he re-emerges down the line on a Veterans’ ballot. I can understand why people don’t rush to induct him, but I hope that they’re not doing so simply because he called Coors home for half his career.
Todd Helton
The Rockies’ next best candidate for the Hall of Fame is Todd Helton, who becomes eligible on the 2019 ballot. Others in his class include Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Roy Halladay, Lance Berkman, and Michael Young. I would anticipate most of the buzz being around Rivera (who will likely be elected in his first try), Halladay (should be a strong candidate, might take a few tries to get in), and Pettitte (who will certainly encounter his share of obstacles). Berkman was a terrific player, one of my favorites, but I don’t think he’ll get much support at all. And Young probably won’t get much either, although his Hall of Fame Monitor score is well over 100, and in another era, he might have drawn a lot of attention with his .300 career average and six 200-hit seasons. But, I don’t think he’ll draw much support either.
So, I think most of the "new candidate" attention will be generated by Rivera, Halladay, Pettitte, and Helton. Helton, though, will probably run up against the same obstacle that Walker is hitting right now, and with not as strong a case:
- Helton won a batting title….but Walker won 3
- Helton never placed higher than 5th in the MVP…but Walker won one.
- Helton had a strong 133 OPS+….but Walker’s was 141
- Helton had a very solid rWAR of 61.2….but Walker’s was even better at 72.6.
- Helton won 3 Gold Gloves at 1B….but Walker won 7 in RF.
Helton did play more games and has some higher career totals, but I think Walker’s case is stronger, and I would anticipate that Helton’s support will be even less than Walker’s has been. I anticipate that the voters will look at his .345 average at home and.286 on the road and conclude that Helton simply took advantage of having Coors as his home, and dismiss him as just another Coors-aided candidate.
Some Other Comparisons
I wonder, though, if that’s really fair to players like Walker and Helton. You know, when I was growing up, before Coors Field came along, the 2 most notorious hitters parks by reputation were Wrigley Field and Fenway Park. I thought I’d take a look at the Hall of Famers over the last few decades that called these ballparks home for large parts of their careers (4 Cubs, 3 Red Sox).
Again, note the use of tOPS+….it provides the extent of the "split". The home and the away figures in these grids will add up to 200 (that is, they will average 100) and the bigger the top number (and the smaller the bottom number), the larger the split in favor of "home".
"Away" stats are shaded in yellow. See what you would think of these players if you only saw their "away" stats. For most of these stars, since they spent very little time with other teams, I just simply pulled home vs. away, because that essentially covers their whole careers, or at least virtually all, with the exception of Wade Boggs. For Boggs, I couldn’t just use simple home vs. away since his home park changed in going to the Yankees and the Rays, so I made the effort to specifically compare Fenway vs. non-Fenway in his case:
Ernie Banks
Split
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
tOPS+
|
Home
|
1285
|
4734
|
722
|
1372
|
218
|
42
|
290
|
909
|
.290
|
.348
|
.537
|
113
|
Away
|
1243
|
4686
|
584
|
1212
|
189
|
48
|
222
|
727
|
.259
|
.311
|
.462
|
87
|
Ron Santo
Split
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
tOPS+
|
Home
|
1136
|
4075
|
659
|
1208
|
194
|
39
|
216
|
743
|
.296
|
.383
|
.522
|
118
|
Away
|
1107
|
4069
|
479
|
1046
|
171
|
28
|
126
|
588
|
.257
|
.342
|
.406
|
82
|
Billy Williams
Split
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
tOPS+
|
Home
|
1248
|
4675
|
761
|
1413
|
219
|
43
|
245
|
792
|
.302
|
.374
|
.525
|
110
|
Away
|
1240
|
4675
|
649
|
1298
|
215
|
45
|
181
|
682
|
.278
|
.349
|
.459
|
90
|
Ryne Sandberg
Split
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
tOPS+
|
Home
|
1098
|
4198
|
726
|
1258
|
217
|
48
|
164
|
607
|
.300
|
.361
|
.491
|
114
|
Away
|
1066
|
4187
|
592
|
1128
|
186
|
28
|
118
|
454
|
.269
|
.326
|
.412
|
86
|
Carl Yastrzemski
Split
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
tOPS+
|
Home
|
1676
|
5948
|
994
|
1822
|
382
|
38
|
237
|
1063
|
.306
|
.402
|
.503
|
115
|
Away
|
1632
|
6040
|
822
|
1597
|
264
|
21
|
215
|
781
|
.264
|
.357
|
.422
|
86
|
Wade Boggs
Because he played for different franchises, his Fenway vs. non-Fenway split is pretty heavily tilted, at least in terms of volume, towards non-Fenway. His rate stats, however..…..well, he hit .369 in Fenway, and .306 in all others. Not that there’s anything wrong with .306….but he was a completely different hitter in Fenway.
Split
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
tOPS+
|
Fenway
|
854
|
3,176
|
614
|
1,173
|
292
|
26
|
52
|
388
|
.369
|
.464
|
.527
|
131
|
Others
|
1,585
|
6,004
|
899
|
1,837
|
286
|
35
|
66
|
625
|
.306
|
.388
|
.398
|
69
|
Jim Rice
Split
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
tOPS+
|
Home
|
1048
|
4075
|
681
|
1304
|
207
|
44
|
208
|
802
|
.320
|
.374
|
.546
|
115
|
Away
|
1041
|
4150
|
568
|
1148
|
166
|
35
|
174
|
649
|
.277
|
.330
|
.459
|
85
|
All of these players, if you focus on their away stats, look a lot less impressive. Does that mean they weren’t great players? No, of course not. They’re all in good standing at the Hall of Fame (well, OK, many are less than sold on Rice). But, they all received a pretty significant home park advantage from Wrigley and Fenway.
Compared to these others, did Walker take even greater advantage of Coors than these others did with their home parks? Probably so, yes. Walker hit .381 at Coors, and his tOPS+ figure was 141, which is larger than any of these others, although Boggs at 131 had a pretty lopsided figure as well. There’s no question Walker got a big boost from Coors, and, much like Boggs, took full advantage of it. The question is, is that enough reason, by itself, to not support his candidacy?
Future Candidates
For a little while, I thought Troy Tulowitzki had the possibility of putting together a Hall of Fame career. However, multiple years of significant lost time due to injuries seem to have derailed that train.
Carlos Gonzalez? Good player, he’s had his moments, but I don’t see him on a Hall of Fame track.
Matt Holliday? Well, for starters, he only played 5 years in Colorado, and has actually spent more time in St. Louis now (8 years), so maybe it's a bit of stretch to consider him a "Rockie" in the first place. He has been a pretty good post-Colorado player, and had a nice career. I wouldn't anticipate much support for him as a Hall of Famer, though.
If the Rockies have a current "hot candidate" that’s still in progress, it would have to be Nolan Arenado. Now, it’s extremely early to start talking Hall of Fame, but Arenado is off to a tremendous start. He’s the two-time reigning NL HR and RBI king, and he was 5th in the MVP voting last year. In addition, he’s won the Gold Glove in each of his first 4 seasons, which is pretty rare. The only other players to accomplish that feat were Johnny Bench and Ichiro Suzuki, who both took home Gold Gloves in their first 10 full seasons.
Still….like the other Colorado stars before him, Arenado’s working on that familiar "split":
Split
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
tOPS+
|
Home
|
280
|
1,094
|
187
|
337
|
66
|
238
|
.308
|
.355
|
.581
|
119
|
Away
|
281
|
1,058
|
133
|
276
|
45
|
138
|
.261
|
.305
|
.457
|
80
|
Now, similar to Tulowitzki and Helton, this split, while significant, is not ridiculously extreme. But, it’s enough that, if it keeps up, may result in the same type of mindset that has accompanied those that came before him.
Wrapping it Up
One thing I didn’t address is the "Coors Hangover" effect, which has been written about quite a bit (in fact, as I’m getting ready to post this article, I see that Tom Tango references it in a "Hey Bill" note), so I won’t go into detail here. My understanding is one thing that would be consistent with such an effect is that, not only would the Rockies hitters hit extremely well at home, which we know they do, but they would also tend to do worse on the road than a typical hitter who wouldn’t have to make the extreme adjustments that a Rockie would. In other words, a large home/road split for a Rockie would be caused not only by a generous home field on the one hand, but by a harsher than normal road existence on the other, which would exaggerate even further the home/road split.
Something to ponder when evaluating the whole of a Colorado player’s career.
Whether they vote for them or not, I at least hope that voters use careful consideration of the whole story, and not just writing anyone off prematurely without "due process" simply because they had the "advantage" of an extreme home park.
Thanks for reading.