Some comments about thirty-three players in the American League, picked at random.
Jason Bay, Red Sox – Bay was one of the players I drafted the first year I did fantasy baseball. He had a torrid stretch in May of that year where he hit 10 homeruns in 10 games. It was a head-to-head league and Bay pretty quickly became my favorite NL player. He seemed weirdly anonymous: a Canadian stuck in Pittsburgh. Anyway, he’s with Boston now, and I’m glad he’s there. Got a chance to play in the postseason and sure made the most of it: .341/.471/.634.
Adrian Beltre, Mariners –How old do you think Beltre is?
It sure seems like he’s been around forever, but Beltre turn 30 at the start of the season. He’s been in the majors since he was nineteen, and he hardly ever misses any games, which is why he’s starting to pile up the counting stats. He’s sitting on 1581 hits and 242 homers, which makes him a candidate for 3000 hits and 500 homeruns.
Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers – Before he injured his arm last year, I thought Bonderman was going to be one of those sneaky Hall-of-Fame types: a guy like Sutton, a compiler of numbers who sort of catches everyone by surprise. Last year made the odds longer, but he’s just 26 this year, and has 59 career wins, which is more than Oswalt, Halladay, Peavy, or Santana had at that age.
I hope he comes back: I think Bonderman is still remembered as the guy who almost lost twenty games his rookie year. The road to respectability is long, but he could get there.
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers – The good folks at baseballreference.com have Cabrera listed at 6’2”, 185 pounds, which was about right when he was in high school, but probably needs updating.
A cursory glance suggests that Cabrera’s walk rate declined in 2008. It didn’t: he just wasn’t intentionally walked at all. Not counting the free passes, he walks about 50-60 times every year. Obviously, he is on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
As a side note, Cabrera might top 300 GIDP before his career is over, which isn’t such a bad thing. The only seven players to do that are Ripken, Aaron, Yaz, Winfield, Murray, Rice, and Julio Franco. Good company to keep.
Jack Cust, A’s – He’s Ryan Howard, right? Same player.
Think about it: what is it that Ryan Howard does that Jack Cust doesn’t do? They both hit homeruns. They both strike out about 200 times a year while posting low batting averages, and high on-base percentages. Neither of them hit a lot of doubles or steal bases. Howard hits a few more homeruns, but Cust walks more, and makes fewer outs. Cust plays a slightly more important defensive position, and he plays it slightly better.
The big difference between them is RBI’s. Cust spent the better part of last season hitting behind Bobby Crosby (.296 OBP), Mark Ellis (.321 OBP), and Kurt Suzuki (.341 OBP). Howard hit behind Rollins (.349), Utley (.380), and Victorino (.352). Who do you think is going to drive in more runs?
Alright, two differences: Howard was stuck in the minors for 500 games, which is a lot. But Cust was stuck twice as long: he missed his best years because no one quite believed in him.
Actually, three differences: most people think Ryan Howard is an elite player, an MVP-caliber player. Most people don’t think that about Jack Cust.
Chris Davis, Rangers – In case you haven’t noticed, Bill James projects Davis to lead the AL in homeruns in 2009. There is an outside chance that he will challenge McGwire’s rookie homerun record of 49, which would be something.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston – Here’s an interesting stat: Jacoby posted a .667 batting average when he bunted (10 hits, 15 at-bats). Which sounds more impressive than it really is, because any bunt that advances a runner is recorded as a sacrifice. For comparison, Reyes hit .556 when bunting last year. Ichiro hit .727.
Alex Gordon, Royals – We’re all waiting, young man.
As an aside, it must be tough playing for a team whose most famous player played your position. Yastremski had the same difficulty, only it was worse for Yaz because he was taking over for Williams. At least Brett’s been retired a few years.
Zack Greinke, Royals - The door is open.
Objectively, Cleveland should win the AL Central. Or Chicago. Or Minnesota. Or, umm, Detroit. Anyone but Kansas City.
But talent-wise, all of the teams in the AL Central are pretty even. Pecota has the difference between the first- and last-place teams as twelve games (86 wins to 74 wins). More surprisingly, the Royals aren’t that last place team (sorry, White Sox fans).
We generally think that change comes slowly, but history suggest otherwise: on average, we can expect at least one team to improve their record by 20 games. The Royals could be that team in 2009. They are young team, and they already have the best starter in the division (Greinke) and one of the best closers (Soria). If Butler or Gordon start to hit, this team could win the AL Central.
Travis Hafner, Indians – He’ll get another chance and I’m certainly rooting for him, but I wouldn’t bet too much on it. I like the nickname ‘Pronk.’
Roy Halladay, Blue Jays – Every few years someone gets labeled as a ‘throwback’ because they complete a bunch of games one year. I remember it happened to Jack McDowell a while ago.
Halladay is the latest, him and Sabathia. Roy finished 9 games last year and 7 in 2006, both totals leading the league. What’s interesting is that Halladay is no more of a ‘throwback’ than anyone else. In 2002, when he won 19 games, he completed just two starts. In 2006 he finished 4 of his 32 starts.
I don’t know if this is true, but I suspect that the ‘throwback’ moniker, once it’s stuck, can do some damage to a pitcher. It can start to creep into a pitcher’s thinking, to the point where instead of worrying about the next hitter, he starts thinking about how to get into the ninth. And once the moniker is stuck the manager is thinking about it, too: should I go to the pen or let Halladay finish it? Can we get the closer loose?
Anyway, it’s just speculation. Right now you’d have to say that he’s the best pitcher in the American League.
Felix Hernandez, Mariners –Only ten pitchers have notched more strikeouts than Felix at his age: Bob Feller, Dwight Gooden, Bert Blyleven, Smokey Joe Wood, Frank Tanana, Walter Johnson, Larry Dierker, Christy Mathewson, Sam McDowell, and Mike McCormick.
You know where I’m going with this: most of those guys faded early. Feller certainly did. Joe Wood was done at thirty. Dierker and McDowell and McCormick were part of the same generation of pitchers, and all of them faded fast. Tanana’s fastball faded early, but he reinvented himself as a junkballer and went forever. Gooden was undone by something.
Three of the guys had long careers. Walter Johnson threw sidearm, which hardly counts. That leaves Mathewson and Blyleven as the two fireballers who lasted a long time. And past Felix, the next nine guys on the list all had short careers as starters.
Which is to say enjoy him while you can.
Bobby Jenks, White Sox – The line is that Jenks is going from being a ‘thrower’ to being a ‘pitcher.’ That’s fine, but his strikeout rate has dropped every year he’s been in the major leagues. If I’m Ozzie Guillen (and sometimes I am), I’d rather Jenks take up throwing again, and leave this pitching stuff to someone else.
Ian Kinsler, Rangers – Was 26 for 28 last year in stolen base attempts, 60 for 68 in his career. Quiet as it’s kept, he’s one of the best players in baseball right now.
John Lackey, Angels – Currently engaged in contract talks with the Angels. All accounts suggest things aren’t going well.
The general consensus seems to be that Lackey is one of the better pitchers in baseball. I think most of that consensus comes from the lack of quality pitching and hitting in the AL West. He had a 116 ERA+ last year, which was worse than Aaron Cook or Hiroki Kuroda or Jamie Moyer or Mark Buehrle or Joe Saunders or Jeremy Guthrie or Rickey Nolasco, all of whom pitched enough to qualified for the ERA title last year.
He wants a lot of money, something in between Sabathia and Burnett. I think the Angels are smart to drag their feet on paying it.
Cliff Lee, Indians –Most of us probably believe that Lee will drop off dramatically in 2009. I’m optimistic, though. I think he’s more of a Bob Welch (good pitcher getting it together) than a LaMarr Hoyt (bad pitcher getting lucky).
Francisco Liriano, Twins – Had a 2.74 in eleven starts after coming off the DL in August. Take out his last start and the ERA is 2.05. I’ll take him for the AL Cy Young this year.
Nick Markakis, Orioles – Improved his walk total by 38 last year and cut his double plays by twelve, with all of his other stats staying about the same. Sort of a poor man’s Carlos Beltran: he does a lot of things very, very well, but nothing that would set him apart. It all adds up: he’s one of the very best.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox – His 2009 season was the strangest pitching season I can remember. He went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA, and was the toughest pitcher to get a hit against last year. He also walked more hitters than anyone else.
The numbers are weird, but they don’t do the season any justice. As someone who follows the Red Sox closely, all I can say is he was scary to watch pitch. He would get two quick outs and then he’d walk two or three guys on four pitches each, miss the strike zone completely. He’d load up the bases for someone like A-Rod or Carlos Pena, and then he’s get out of it. As the season wore on, it started to seem like a joke of sorts, like he was trying to screw with everyone. He’d be listed among the league leaders in wins and winning percentage and ERA and it always seems like a typo, like the newspapers were obviously confusing him with some other Matsuzaka who was pitching in the NL.
Justin Morneau, Twins – His walks have increased every year for the past fours seasons, and his strikeouts have decreased. With Mauer having back trouble, his RBI count will drop in 2009, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Morneau has his best year yet. He’s a good player, and he does a lot of things that make people think he’s a great player.
David Price, Rays – The AL Central is rich with young arms. The Rays have Price and Kazmir. Boston has Lester, Buchholz, and Masterson. New York has Joba and Hughes. I am not as high on Price as everyone else seems to be, mostly because his track record is so small.
Carlos Quentin, White Sox – Would have won the AL MVP had he remained healthy, which isn’t to say he would have deserved it. He’s a real hitter, though.
Alex Rios, Blue Jays – I’m high on Alex Rios in 2009, for a few reasons. For one thing his splits are even against righties and lefties: he is a right-handed batter, but he does well against right-handed pitchers. Second, he had a great second half last year. Rios is one of those guys whose skills are underrated because he doesn’t do one thing really well. He’s a good rightfielder with a strong arm who can play center if needed. He’s fast, and is learning to become an efficient base-stealer.
I don’t think he’ll win the AL MVP in 2009, mostly because I don’t think the Jays will contend against the triumvirate in the AL East. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts together an MVP-type season.
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees – Eventually he’ll play more games at third than at short, which will shift his historical competition from Honus Wagner to Mike Schmidt. Alex was never a candidate to steal Wagner’s title of Greatest Shortstop of All-Time, but he is a strong contender to take the title from Schmidt.
As for Schmidt: I’ll just mention that Schmidt has been one of the most forthright and insightful ballplayers talking about the steroid era, going so far as to acknowledge that he, too, would have used the drugs if given the chance. Which isn’t to say he’s an apologist, because he’s not. But he is one of the few players willing to consider the murky grays of the issue, without getting pulled to one side or another.
CC Sabathia, Yankees –I have a few friends that are Yankee fans, and they are excited about Sabathia. I think Sabathia is a fine pitcher, but the innings and the weight would scare me. There are at least twenty pitchers I’d rather have than Sabathia over the next seven seasons, including a few guys on the Yankees.
Gary Sheffield, Tigers – One homer away from 500 for his career. When all is said and done, I’ll miss Gary Sheffield. His batting stance, which will be forgotten thirty seconds after he retires, was a thing to see: he’d wave the barrel side to side like he was trying to scare a charging rhino. It was all nervous energy and balance, a wonderful thing to watch.
Grady Sizemore, Indians – At what point do the Indians start batting Sizemore further down the lineup? He has about 100 fewer RBI opportunities than guys like Howard and Mourneau every year, and has yet to crack 100 RBI’s. Ranks with Beltran, Wright, and Utley as one of the most complete players in the game.
Also: how long until he’s the best player in Cleveland history? Who is he even competing with?
John Smoltz, Red Sox – The entire Red Sox offseason seems focused on winning postseason baseball. The hassle of trying to juggle eight starters (Beckett, Matsuzaka, Smoltz, Wakefield, Lester, Buchholz, Penny, and Masterson) and three closers (Papelbon, Saito, and Ramirez) will turn into a tremendous asset when the postseason rolls around.
Smoltz and Schilling are linked somehow. It’s weird that it’s happened, but I think it’s the case. Both are high-strikeout pitchers with good track records in the postseason, and similar W-L records and strikeout totals. To my mind they are both Hall of Fame players, and it’s not a particularly tough call on either one.
Nick Swisher, Yankees – Last year was a rollercoaster for Swisher, both on the field and at the plate. In the field, there was a stretch when Swisher changed positions thirteen times in 22 games, bouncing from centerfield to right to first base to leftfield and then back around. As a hitter, he started off the year as Ozzie’s leadoff bat (where he posted a .378 on-base percentage, overshadowed by a .223 batting average). After a month he was dropped to seventh, then eighth, then ninth, and then fifth in the order, before settling at the bottom.
I like Swisher: he’s one of my favorite players. He is quietly helpful, a guy who will do whatever is asked without complaint. I hope he gets a chance with the Yankees, but it’s a tough team to play for, for a myriad of reasons. Word from Girardi is that Nady will be the starter this year, which is bad news for Swisher. We haven’t seen his best, and there is a chance that we won’t.
Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners – It was mentioned the other day that Ichiro might reach 4000 professional hits, which is remarkable. Over the last three years, he has stolen 125 bases in 139 attempts, a 90% success rate.
While he’s probably not the player of the decade, there is no player who has been more fun to watch than Ichiro.
Mark Teixeira, Yankees – Intuitively, it seems like Teixeira will transition well in New York. He’s a slow starter, but it just seems like he’ll get more rope than some other guys have gotten.
It’s a strange thing, public sentiment. I think most of us had an inclination that the whole A-Rod thing would go poorly in the Bronx, just like most of us, if we had been asked, might have predicted success for Sheffield. Damon is popular, but hell, Damon is still popular in Boston. Reggie Jackson was up and down, but Catfish Hunter was beloved.
Gut call, I think Teixeira will be fine in the Bronx. Sabathia might be in for it.
BJ Upton, Rays – There is nothing that BJ Upton does that is even remotely exciting. Not sure why I bothered to list him here.
Matt Wieters, Orioles – Here’s a question: what kind of player is the best kind to have if you want to build a contending team. Is having an ace starter the most important thing? Or a middle-of-the-order bat? Or a good leadoff hitter? A good shortstop?
If I had to guess, I’d hazard that having a good catcher is the very best thing that a team can have, that having a good catcher will get you further than anything other kind of player.
One reason I’d hazard that guess is the overwhelming success of teams that have good catchers. That is to say: good catchers are usually on good teams.
Think about it: Berra was in the postseason fourteen times. Cochrane’s team made it five times, mostly in competition against the Yankees. Bench made six postseason. Dickey made eight. Campanella made five, as did Piazza. Gary Carter made three postseason; Even Fisk made two.
Even the modern catchers do well. Ivan Rodriguez has played in five postseasons, while Posada’s played in twelve. Every year that Mauer is healthy, the Twins contend. Both Martin and McCann have played in October.
So there’s a glimmer of hope in Baltimore, because Matt Wieters is as good as everyone thinks he is.
Thirty-three players (I think). I’ll get to the NL next.
(Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City. He welcomes questions, comments, and Opening Day tickets here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.)