In the second round of games we predicted:
Gonzaga over Western Kentucky by 15
Memphis over Maryland by 12
Tarheels over LSU by 12
Kansas over Dayton by 11
Connecticut over Texas A & M by 11
Louisville over Sienna by 10
Pittsburgh over Oklahoma State by 8
Oklahoma by Michigan by 7
Duke over Texas by 6
Arizona over Cleveland State by 4
Missouri over Marquette by 4
Michigan State over USC by 4
UCLA over Villanova by 3
(despite the seedings)
Xavier over Wisconsin by 2
Arizona State over Syracuse by 2
(despite the seedings)
Washington over Purdue by 1
And the results were:
PREDICTION     OUTCOME
Gonzaga over Western Kentucky by 15   Gonzaga by 2
Memphis over Maryland by 12   Memphis by 19
Tarheels over LSU by 12   Carolina by 14
Kansas over Dayton by 11     Kansas by 17
By the way, my spell checker doesn’t recognize the word “Gonzaga”, which is not too weird, but it suggests that perhaps what I meant was “Bondage.” Really? Bondage? How do you get that out of “Gonzaga”?
So we were 4-0 in those games. The teams that we thought were 50 points better won by a total of 52 points.
Connecticut over Texas A & M by 11 U Conn by 26
Louisville over Sienna by 10   Louisville by 7
Pittsburgh over Oklahoma State by 8 Pittsburgh by 8
Oklahoma by Michigan by 7   Oklahoma by 10
Also 4-0 in those games. The teams that we thought were 36 points better won by a total of 51, making us 8-0 but with +113 points rather than the expected +86.
Duke over Texas by 6 Duke by 5
Arizona over Cleveland State by 4   Arizona by 14
Missouri over Marquette by 4     Missouri by 4
Michigan State over USC by 4 Michigan State by 5
Still 4-0 in those games; that’s 12-0. The teams that we thought were 18 points better won by a total of 28 points (although 3 of the four games were within one point of the expected spread.) The teams we thought were 104 points better have won by a total of 141. Now the games that were almost too close to call:
UCLA over Villanova by 3 WRONG Villanova by 20
Xavier over Wisconsin by 2 Xavier by 11
Arizona State over Syracuse by 2 WRONG ‘Cuse by 11
Washington over Purdue by 1 WRONG Purdue by 1
So we’re wrong on three of those four, making us 13-3 in the second round, 36-12 in the tournament. The teams that we thought were 8 points better in this group of four lost by a total of 21, so altogether, the teams that we thought were stronger outscored their opponents by 120 points, whereas we would have predicted they would win by 112 points. I think so far in the tournament we’ve done about as well as we would have done just predicting that the higher-seeded team would win every game. However, we have done well on the point margins. The teams that we would have predicted to win by 425 points have actually outscored their opponents by 402.
In the third round of games we have:
Louisville over Arizona by 7
Pittsburgh over Xavier by 7
Connecticut over Purdue by 6
North Carolina over Gonzaga by 5
Duke over Villanova by 4
Oklahoma over Syracuse by 2
Kansas over Michigan State by 2
Memphis over Missouri by 2
Here’s a question for you: Who was the last college player as good as Blake Griffin? I don’t think there has been anybody that good in college ball for several years. … just wondering who the last guy was. The Big 12 writers like to say the Big 12 has had the best player in the country the last three years, with Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley and Griffin. Let’s not argue about the truth of that, but my point was that Durant and Beasley were phenomenal players, but not close to the athleticism of Griffin. I remember one year KU in the Final Four had to deal with Dwayne Wade and Carmelo Anthony, and those guys were great but again, not close to matching Griffin. He’s like LeBron and Kobe, but those guys didn’t go to college.