A few comments and digressions about thirty-seven players in the National League, picked at random.
Rich Ankiel, Cardinals – A few weeks ago we had a poll question that asked whether or not we could hit .100 in the majors. Most folks answered no, which surprised me. I don’t think I’m anyone’s idea of a gifted athlete, but given 500 at-bats in the majors, I’m confident I could hit .100.
Sometimes I think we tend to over-value the degree to which ‘natural talent’ influences our lives, while undervaluing ‘effort.’ Hitting a major league fastball is damned tough, but most of us, if we did it enough, would find out that we’d start to make contact. Not all the time, certainly, and perhaps never with enough force to hit a homerun or a double. But most of us could hit a few grounders through the hole. Most of us, given the chance, would rise to the challenge. We’d hit .100.
Since 1961, 134 pitchers have notched 500 at-bats in the major leagues. Of those 134 pitchers, only six had batting averages lower than .100.
|
Number of Pitchers
|
Percentage
|
Career BA > .100
|
128
|
95.5
|
Career BA < .100
|
6
|
4.5
|
Breaking it down further, major league pitchers are more likely to hit above .200 than below .100.
|
Number of Pitchers
|
Percentage
|
Career BA > .200
|
16
|
11.9
|
Career BA .151-.199
|
59
|
44.1
|
Career BA .100 - .150
|
53
|
39.6
|
Career BA < .100
|
6
|
4.5
|
I’ve seen Pedro Martinez bat, and I am confident he’s no more of a major league hitter than I am. But he’s managed a .100 batting average throughout his career.
Back to Ankiel: most of you know that Ankiel was a great young pitcher. And I mean historically great: at twenty he struck out 194 hitters in 175 innings. Then he had that awful ALDS game where he couldn’t find home plate, and his pitching career was over.
He’s back. He’s a centerfielder now and a fine hitter, posting a .264/.337/.509 line last year. If Ankiel isn’t a triumph of will over ability, I don’t know who is.
Matt Cain, Giants – Cain has pitched very well over the last two seasons, but has a lousy record to show for it (15-30). Let’s band together and unilaterally swap his W-L record with Matsuzaka’s, shall we?
Johnny Cueto, Reds – Who’s going to have a better career, Volquez or Cueto?
Obviously, Volquez had a tremendous 2008 season: 17-6, 3.21 ERA, 202 K’s. A fine season for a twenty-four year old to have. Cueto was less brilliant (9-14, 4.81 ERA, 158 K’s in 174 IP), but he’s also two years younger than Volquez. Who will be better?
One way to answer that question is to consider each pitcher’s strikeout ratio, the number of strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, against their age. Which is rarer: a 22-year old who averaged eight strikeouts an inning, or a 24-year old who averages nine?
Cueto had 8.17 K/9 IP, which is the 14th best total by a twenty-two year old pitcher. The other guys on that list are pretty impressive: Pedro and Ramon Martinez, Frank Tanana, Drysdale, Sam McDowell, Herb Score. 14th best is impressive: Cueto has a bright future.
But Volquez had 9.46 K/9 IP, which is the sixth-best total by a twenty-four year old pitcher. So Volquez is ahead of Cueto, at least by that metric.
The Reds have three guys (Aaron Harang being the third) who could led the NL in strikeouts.
Prince Fielder, Brewers – Fielder became a vegetarian before the 2008 season, and lost 16 homeruns and .120 points on his OPS from the year before.
I don’t think that the vegetarianism caused the drop in power, but even if it did, it’s probably in his best interests to stick to it. Prince’s father, of course, had a great career as a big slugger: great, but predictably short. One could conjecture that Prince is trying to have a longer career than King Fielder did.
From what I gather, his wife gave him a book about meat processing that turned him away from the stuff. This is off topic somewhat, but doesn’t it seem that vegetarianism is the in the logical progression of our social morality, in the same way that equal rights for women and minorities was and is. I’m not trying to equate the three; I only mean to say that animal rights falls in line with the movement of our social values. Our grandchildren will wonder why the hell we were so caught up with cheeseburgers and bacon.
I’m a dog owner (or as they’d say in California, I share my life with a dog). The idea of eating him is abhorrent, mostly because I feel he has a conscious, autonomous life, a soul of sorts. When my dog rolls around on the grass because it’s warm and sunny, that seems indicative of a soul.
So we have these weird moral sensibilities: we don’t eat cats or dogs. Other cultures have different moral sensibilities: the Japanese have few qualms about eating whales. In India cows are sacred. You get the point.
The thing about these sensibilities is they’re illogical: a dog is no more or less alive than a manatee, or a lamb. We feel like there is a difference, but rationally most of us can acknowledge that there isn’t a real difference. Sit with a cow for an hour and watch the thing chew its cud, and gradually it’ll come to you that it is as alive and conscious in its way as Lassie is.
What has prevented us from acknowledging the autonomy of animals has always been our own need: we had to eat other animals to survive. But we’re entering (or we’ve already entered) an age where we no longer need to kill animals to survive. In fact, killing animals to survive has become a less efficient means of eating: it’s easier to grow an acre of soybeans than it is to raise a cow.
That’s a long detour: what I mean to say is that there is an inconsistency in our thinking, and sooner or later it’ll get resolved. Vegetarianism will succeed for two reasons: 1) it is more efficient, and 2) it is more morally tolerable. In a few years we’ll see a tofu dog racing the chorizo and the braut in Miller Park. And in a generation or two that tofu dog will be winning most of the races.
Back to our regular programming…
Jeff Francouer, Braves – Give credit to the Braves: they sure stuck by Francouer last year. Excepting a brief stint to the minors, the Braves slotted him into the 6-8 spot in the lineup and let him try to work it out, enduring one bad month after another.
I’m glad they did, but boy, if there were signs of life they are tough to see. He walked a little bit more, struck out a speck less. His best month was September, when he hit about as well as any replacement level outfielder would hit.
He’s a fine defensive rightfielder, which almost justifies the team’s patience. Here’s hoping he comes around.
Tom Glavine, Braves – Have you noticed the trend among old pitchers to sign with good teams in pitcher’s parks? Glavine goes to the Mets, who play in a huge park and were contenders when he signed with them. Maddux went to the Padres and Dodgers. Clemens went to the Yanks (big park, good team) and then the ‘Stros. Randy’s with San Francisco, which is a weak division.
It’s smart: what better way to disguise the five miles-per-hour you’ve lost on your fastball than sign with the Padres? What better way to notch some cheap wins than sign with the Mets?
Don’t know why the Braves wanted him back: if he notches 150 innings he’ll have the worst ERA in the league.
Adrian Gonzalez, Padres – I hope playing in Petco doesn’t keep him out of the Hall of Fame. Adrian is one of the most underrated player in baseball right now, due entirely to Petco Park. Without exaggerating an inch, Gonzalez would hit .300 with 40-50 homeruns in any other park. If he had stayed with the Rangers he’d hit 60.
Rich Harden, Cubs – For years people have been saying that Harden would be terrific if he stayed healthy. Last year, finally, he managed to get 148 innings, and damned if he wasn’t as good as advertised: 10-2, 2.07 ERA, 181 strikeouts in 148 innings.
Trevor Hoffman, Brewers – It could’ve been handled better, but it was the right thing to do. Having a closer is the last thing the Padres need to worry about.
Unless Lee Smith miraculously picks up steam, Hoffman will be the next relief pitcher elected to the Hall of Fame. Hoffman has the saves, but Smith had the edge in innings pitched, 1289 to 989. Over their careers, Smith was more valuable to his team than Hoffman has been.
Ryan Howard, Phillies – He’ll be the next generation’s Jim Rice. When he’s up for the Hall of Fame, all of the guys who watched him play will talk about how he was the ‘most feared’ player of his day, and point out all the times he finished high in the MVP voting. And those of us who can look beyond ‘fear’ and ponder his ‘worth,’ well, we’ll probably be talking about how great and underappreciated someone like Carlos Beltran was. The more things change.
Anyway, enough picking on Howard. He’s a left-handed hitter, as most of you know. Last year, he hit more homeruns to leftfield than right, which has been common throughout his career: he almost always hits more opposite field homeruns than pulled homers.
If I had to guess, I’d say Howard is more likely to age well than a traditional pull-hitter would. When Rice lost his bat speed, it seemed to happen overnight…he had to change his entire game to compensate, and it didn’t last. One has the sense that Howard’s ability to drive baseballs to the opposite field will help him stick around longer than Rice.
Chris Iannetta, Rockies – I like Iannetta. He’s the National League’s version of Joe Mauer: a catcher who gets on base, draws walks, and hits for good power. People love Russell Martin, but I’d take Iannetta over Martin in a cool second and not think twice about it.
Nick Johnson, Nationals – Can we get a do-over on this career? Please?
Randy Johnson, Giants – Is it just me, or has Johnson been sort of forgotten about? He’s a truly great pitcher; the third best pitcher of his era, behind Clemens and Maddux. For the range of his accomplishments, it sure seems he isn’t talked about much.
Anyways, he’s still striking out hitters. RJ was forty-four last year, and he struck out 173 in 184 innings. He’s two seasons away from crossing 5000 strikeouts. I hope he gets there.
One of the five best lefties of all-time, the other four being Grove, Spahn, Koufax, and Carlton. I’d take Randy over everyone but Grove.
Chipper Jones, Braves – You would have to say that Jones is one of the eight best third basemen in baseball history, which means that the Braves have enjoyed the careers of two of the eight best players at third base. Darrell Evans, in the top-12 at third, also broke through with the Braves.
Eddie Mathews had a big edge early in his career, but Chipper is coming on strong. At thirty-six, Mathews was a part-time player heading out of the game. Chipper was thirty-six last year and he had the finest season of his career. Mathews is still ahead, but Chipper is closing.
Interestingly, neither player was ever the star of their team. Mathews was overshadowed by Aaron, while Chipper hasn’t gotten nearly as much attention as the Braves pitchers did.
Andy LaRoche, Pirates – The difference between his minor league and major league numbers are dramatic: .294/.380/.517 in the minors, .185/.288/.272 in the majors.
I think the very best thing the Pirates could do is tell him he has a job and let him play out the season. No reason not to.
Brad Lidge, Phillies – I didn’t think he’d make it back, honestly. Not after 2005, not as a closer. Obviously I was wrong.
Tim Lincecum, Giants – Lincecum, Wood, Prior, and Koufax. Those are the four players to average 10 or more strikeouts per nine innings pitched at Age 24.
There is a lot of talk about Stephen Strasburg right now. He’s a pitcher at San Diego State College, and the buzz is he’s fantastic. On April 11th of last year, he struck out 23 batters in a game against the University of Utah.
Tim Lincecum was a great college pitcher, a dominant strikeout pitcher. He also (predictably), had control issues. He learned to pitch better – his walks decreased steadily - but he was mostly raw ability. His college numbers:
|
AGE
|
IP
|
ERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
WHIP
|
Lincecum
|
20
|
112
|
3.53
|
12.9
|
6.6
|
1.47
|
Lincecum
|
21
|
104
|
3.11
|
11.3
|
6.1
|
1.27
|
Lincecum
|
22
|
125
|
1.94
|
14.3
|
4.5
|
1.1
|
Here are Strasburg’s college numbers:
Strasburg
|
18
|
37
|
2.43
|
11.4
|
3.6
|
0.89
|
Strasburg
|
19
|
97
|
1.57
|
12.3
|
1.5
|
0.79
|
What’s shocking is Strasburg already has the control. At nineteen, he’s the college pitcher Tim Lincecum was at twenty-two. He’s one of those pitchers who could probably pitch well in the major leagues right now, a Dwight Gooden, Bob Feller, Gary Nolan-type.
Carlos Marmol, Cubs – Say you manage a professional team. Say it’s a good team, one that figures to contend in 2009, but you need a closer. Let’s say, hypothetically, you have two options for the spot.
One is a 25-year old fireballer who struck out 114 hitters in 87 innings last year, while posting a 2.68. He played on your team last year, patiently accepting the set-up role in anticipation for the chance to close in 2009. His fastball clocks in at 101 miles an hour.
The other guy is thirty-one. He’s a free agent, new to your team, and he lost the closer gig on another team last year because of a string of blown saves. He struck out 58 hitters in 68 innings, while walking another 37. He posted a 3.41 ERA. His fastball was not 101 miles an hour.
Who ya gonna take? Who’s your closer?
The Cubs went with the other guy.
Brian McCann, Braves – Had another terrific year at the plate, which makes it two out of the last three. Allowed 93 out of 120 runners to steal last year, and runners are 255/327 over McCann’s career (78%).
Lastings Milledge, Nationals – There are some positive indicators for Milledge entering 2009. His walk rate improved while his strikeout rate dropped. Hit well in the second half (.299/.355/.448). Could post an OPS around .800 this year.
The line on the Nationals is that they’ll pick up any malcontented player, so long as the price is low. I wonder, though, if we’re misunderstanding things: I think the Nationals sign players who are good, but who are undervalued because of a messy track record.
Milledge has a reputation, which stems from three incidents. First, there were charges of having sex with a minor, news that got a lot of attention when he entered the amateur draft. Then there was his rookie mistake of giving high five’s to fans after hitting a homerun, which led to some courageous Met veteran to leave an anonymous note on his locker telling him to “Know Your Place.” Lastly, he appeared in a rap song, which had some unflattering lyrics.
You can see the old guard of sportswriters sort of frothing at the bit, can’t you? This is a bad seed: Lastings Milledge represents the decline of baseball and Western Civilization as we know it. Sex with a minor? High-fives? Rap? It’s the Troika of the Apocalypse, if you ask them.
It’s a crock. Milledge was fifteen and in high school when he had sex with the minor, which isn’t meant to excuse the behavior, only to put it in an appropriate context. And yes, the school responded, probably because the school had to respond: we live in an age of litigation, and the school had to protect itself. No charges were filled.
The homerun? C’mon. It was his first big league homer, and it happened in the bottom of the 10th, against the Giants closer, and it tied the score. Who wouldn’t show emotion? Let’s cut a kid some slack.
As for rap…well, we can all agree that rap is the worst thing ever. I mean, Bill O’Reilly writes fiction novels where men demand oral sex from women, and he still gets to pretend he’s a bastion of some higher morality. But a ballplayer who sings about the exact same topic, well, all hell’s gonna break loose. The Mets had to release a statement saying that Milledge’s rap song didn’t representative the fine values of the Mets organization, which, coming from the Mets, says a lot.
Alright: I’m coming off the soapbox. I don’t know Lastings Milledge, and I’m not in a position to pass any kind of judgment on the quality of his soul. But he’s a fine player, and the Nationals were smart to pick him up.
Daniel Murphy, Mets – The Mets are convinced of his ability, and are planning to bat him second in the lineup. I’m less convinced, but he sure looks promising, and I like it when a team gives its full commitment to a young player. The Rangers are doing this for Elvis Andrus, which has always struck me as a smart way to bring up talented young hitters, by giving them high expectations.
Roy Oswalt, Astros – I wonder how much a ‘clean’ statistical record improves your chances at the Hall of Fame. By clean, I mean a record that has no obvious holes, no years where the guy stumbled. Lou Gehrig has a clean record (obviously). Don Sutton.
Tommy John and Fergie Jenkins have nearly identical records: 288-231 for John, 284-226 for Jenkins. But John’s season-by-season record is all over the place, whereas Fergie’s record is consistent. Fergie had no trouble getting into the Hall, whereas John is still waiting. I think it matters a great deal.
Anyway, Oswalt has a clean record, and is a good contender for the Hall of Fame because of it. If he misses some time, if he has a weird 8-13 year, then his chances will come down some.
Juan Pierre, Dodgers – The first victim of the sabermetric era: if Pierre had come into the league five years earlier he would’ve had a long, full career. Now he’s hanging on to a roster spot.
Pierre is like Willie Wilson. In some ways he’s better than Wilson: Pierre strikes out less and draws more walks. He’s like Wilson, but not as valuable: his success rate at stealing is low (75%). He seems like a nice guy, though I imagine he goes home every night cursing the folks who invented VORP.
Albert Pujols, Cardinals – I have him on two of my three fantasy teams, after years of wanting him. Which means he’s be injured by mid-May. Player of the Decade, obviously.
Manny Ramirez, Dodgers – Is he the best player who never won an MVP? Certainly he’s in contention, with Mel Ott and Eddie Mathews being the other contenders.
Last year there was a game against the Yankees where Manny was brought in to pinch hit for Boston against Mariano Rivera. The game was tied in the top of the ninth, two outs, runner on third base. Rivera threw three straight strikes past Manny, who never moved a muscle.
I was watching that game. At the time I thought it was proof of Manny’s greatest as a hitter: he hadn’t seen the pitch he wanted, and he wasn’t going to bother swinging on a good pitch, against a good pitcher. He was waiting for the mistake.
In light of everything that followed, I’ve been wondering if I completely misjudged the entire event. Maybe he was trying to prove a point, to stick it to management.
I hope I’m wrong: I don’t like thinking the worst about people, and I always loved watching Manny. But the whole fiasco in Boston has me questioning everything. What do you guys think? Did anyone watch that game? Did Manny go up there intending not to swing?
Hanley Ramirez, Marlins – In my life there have been three trifectas of great shortstops. In the 1980’s we had Trammell, Ripken, and Smith. In the 1990’s we had A-Rod, Jeter, and Garciaparra. Now we have Ramirez, Reyes, and Rollins. What’s interesting is that this trio plays in the same five team division.
Like Jeter, Nomar, and A-Rod, they’ve taken turns being the best shortstop in the NL. Win Shares by year:
2006 - Reyes 28, Ramirez 25, Rollins 25
2007 - Rollins 28, Ramirez 27, Reyes 24
2008 - Ramirez 32, Reyes 28, Rollins 24
Jose Reyes, Mets – Is 200 stolen bases behind Henderson at this point (493 to 290). Interestingly, he's 200 bases ahead of Lou Brock, who only had 83 at Jose’s age.
Brock had his best stolen base season in 1974, when he was thirty-five years old (118 steals). He got a late start to his career, which makes it surprising that he broke the career stolen base record. Stealing bases is a young man’s skill, a skill that declines with age. So Lou Brock had two things going against him in chasing Cobb; he had a late start, and he was pursuing a young player’s record. It’s remarkable he broke it.
Jimmy Rollins, Phillies – Rollins has a career OPS+ of 99, which is not impressive. That said, he seems an excellent candidate to make the Hall of Fame. Rollins has played eight years in the majors. He’s notched 846 runs, 1481 hits, 307 doubles, 90 triples, 125 homeruns, and 295 steals. Double those numbers and you have a player nearing 3000 hits, with 600 doubles and well over 1500 runs scored. His speed will drop, but it’s not out of the question that he finishes with 500 stolen bases.
He’s a shortstop and has a few Gold Gloves. He won an MVP and a World Championship. He’s a good candidate to reach 3000 hits, and if he’s close I think someone will be inclined to give him a chance.
Johan Santana, Mets- I’ll take him for the NL Cy Young. This isn’t a particularly bold choice, so I’ll add that his ERA will be under 2.00.
Alfonso Soriano, Cubs – In an article last year, I complained about Soriano not walking that much, which is a tree/forest kind of thing. He doesn’t walk a lot, but there are a lot of positives. He hits for average and power and is a terrific base stealer. He is supremely underrated as a defensive leftfielder, mostly because he throws sidearm from the outfield. Throwing sidearm looks strange, but it’s damned effective: Soriano has registered more base-runner kills than any other leftfielder over the past three years. He’s a fine player.
The article was about Hitter Intelligence, or something like that, and it mentioned Soriano a little bit. Basically, I said that Soriano had a lot of characteristics that suggested he wouldn’t age well as a player. One reader thought I was taking an unfair swipe at Soriano, which I wasn’t. He just didn’t do well by the metrics of the article.
That said, I wonder if the reader wasn’t picking up on something unconscious, because Soriano is one of my least favorite players. Not to sound like an old-timey sportwriter, but Soriano has always struck me as a “me-first” kind of player, and I generally dislike those guys. Plus, yeah, he never walks.
I wonder if anyone remembers this anymore: when he was traded to the Nationals years ago, the team announced that he would move to leftfield. Soriano tried it out, and then he pulled a tantrum about it, refusing to go out to leftfield during the team’s first spring training game. Here’s a new team with a new manager, and their star leftfielder won’t take the field. It turned into a weird stare down, with the Nationals going so far as to have Soriano listed as a disqualified player, and having MLB void his contract. Soriano eventually caved: he shifted to left and had the best season of his career.
The same thing is going on in Chicago, where Soriano has held on to the leadoff spot in the Cubs lineup. There are obvious reasons why Soriano shouldn’t bat leadoff, the number one being that Soriano had the worst on-base percentage of any Cubs regular last year. Yet he was allowed to bat leadoff the entire year.
You can be damn sure it’s a matter of management cowing to a player’s demands. Someone asked Piniella about it recently. Here’s how Piniella responded:
“He said, ‘Lou, you can do whatever you want,’ So we’ll see. To me, he’s still my leadoff hitter. I love him in the leadoff spot. But we can see how it looks. We’ve got plenty of time in the spring to see where things shake out.”
You see what happened, right? Piniella had to ask Soriano about it. Soriano told Piniella that Piniella could do what he wanted. But it’s Soriano granting Lou the authority, which means it’s Soriano’s call.
Think about it: why should a player have to remind Lou Piniella that he can do whatever he wants with the team? If Piniella wanted to bat the guy with the lowest on-base percentage lower than first in the batting order, shouldn’t he damn well do it? But he hasn’t, and he won’t. Soriano might ceed the leadoff spot in April, because he’s having leg problems. But as soon as he’s back to 100% he’ll be at the top of the order again, and there isn’t anything the Cubs will do about it.
Frank Robinson stood up to Soriano. He sent a clear message that Soriano wasn’t the manager, that he wasn’t above the team. And Soriano, once he realized that Robinson wasn’t going to budge, well, he had the best year of his career.
The problem is, once you start one pattern, it’s tough to go change directions. You date a woman and you start off paying for all the meals, it’ll be tough to get her to split the check six months in. The Cubs should have moved Soriano out of the leadoff spot years ago, but they didn’t. They said, “Let’s wait and see if we can reason with him.”
That was when Soriano was an okay leadoff hitter: now he’s the worst leadoff hitter on the team and they can’t budge him.
Geovanny Soto, Cubs –Three Cubs now. I know I pick on the Cubs a lot. Here’s the thing: I actually like the Cubs. They have a rich history and great fans. Chicago is the most beautiful city in America, especially in the summer, and Wrigley is about the finest park west of the Charles River to watch a ballgame.
The Cubs fans deserve a winner. But as long as the Cubs management continues to make dumb, bone-headed decisions, it’s not going to happen. Batting Soriano leadoff is a dumb decision: it won’t kill them in 2009, but it sure as hell isn’t going to help. Letting Soriano dictate where he bats is a mistake. Kevin Gregg is a decent closer: he won’t cost them the division all by himself. But Carlos Marmol would be a far better closer: he has the stuff to be a star. Kevin Gregg, at his best, is only Kevin Gregg.
And the Cubs, they do this all the time. Two years ago the Cubs, in the thick of a pennant race, were wasting at-bats on Jason Kendall and Michael Barrett, who frankly couldn’t hit a lick between ‘em. Meanwhile Geovanny Soto was wasting his third year in AAA ball, where he put together a .353/.444/.652 line in 110 games. Look at that again: Soto hit like Albert Puojls in AAA, as a catcher, and the Cubs wanted to give at-bats to Michael Barrett?
Rich Hill is another one. Hill notched 183 strikeouts in 195 inning in 2007. He has three lousy starts in 2008 and the Cubs cut bait. I don’t get it.
The Cubs: I want them to win, I really do. But I can’t stand stupidity. The Cubs need to get a whole lot less dumb before they’ll win a World Series.
Willy Taveras, Rockies – Taveras had more stolen bases last year than runs scored, 68 to 64.When I saw that, I thought he had to be the only guy to do that.
It turns out he’s not. A lot of players have notched more steals than runs scored in a season. Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines did it, as did Vince Coleman (a few times), Omar Moreno, Ron LeFore, and Maury Wills.
Taveras is, however, at the low end of the spectrum. All of the other guys stole a lot of bases: 80 bases, 90 bases. It’s tough to score 80 or 90 runs. Henderson’s 130 steal season is one of the ones that counts; it’s tough to score 130 runs in a season.
But 68 runs is a reasonable number to have, especially if you bat leadoff. Taveras did bat leadoff, and he couldn’t score that many.
Miguel Tejada, Astros – What an awful season. Ugh. He grounded into 32 double plays, walked 20 times in 158 games, with a gawd-awful 5-1 strikeout to walk ratio. He stole seven bases, but was caught seven times. He was a plus defensive player, which is a good thing. I think he’ll be better this year.
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks – We need a way to tell these Upton fellows apart. Let’s see…B.J. Upton is a centerfielder for a 1998 expansion team, whereas Justin is a centerfielder for a 1998 expansion team. B.J. played shortstop originally, as did Justin. B.J. came up when he was nineteen, as did Justin.
Here we go: B.J. was the second overall pick. Justin was the number one pick. And B.J. is the fast one.
Rickie Weeks, Brewers – I’m still high on him: had a .263/.378/.451 line during the second half, which is a positive sign.
The Brewers tried him in the leadoff spot last year, which makes sense: he had the second-best on-base percentage on the team, and the Brewers sure weren’t going to put Prince Fielder in the leadoff spot.
It makes sense, but I’d try him somewhere else, some place where his low batting average isn’t going to seem so glaring.
David Wright, Mets – I think Wright will be the NL MVP this year, the first MVP that the Mets have had. Of course, the Mets will have to win the East for that to happen. He’s a great player.
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals – Take a look, sometime, at the ten players most comparable to Zimmerman at his age.
Okay: I’ll do it for you. The ten best comps to Zimmerman are Ken Keltner, Gary Sheffield, Eric Chavez, Harlond Clift, Scott Rolen, Hank Blalock, Carney Lansford, Vern Stephens, Jeff Francouer, and Del Ennis. That’s a good list: I didn’t expect it to be that good.
Zimmerman is 24 this year. He had an unspectacular year at Age 23. Interestingly, the other ten guys all had tremendous years at age 23, but disappointing years at 24. Also interesting is the fact that most of those guys had very good careers after age 24.
Chris Young, Padres – I don’t know why pitchers don’t wear batting helmets with face guards in the major leagues. We’re not far from it, I think. If I were a pitcher I’d wear one.
Young was better after the line drive than before (4.12 ERA before, 3.35 after).
(Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City, Iowa. He welcomes comments, questions, and irate phone calls from Lou Piniella here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com).