Remember me
Forgot your username/password?
 
Print
Home>Articles

37 Players - National League

By Dave Fleming
April 1, 2009

A few comments and digressions about thirty-seven players in the National League, picked at random.  

Rich Ankiel, Cardinals – A few weeks ago we had a poll question that asked whether or not we could hit .100 in the majors. Most folks answered no, which surprised me. I don’t think I’m anyone’s idea of a gifted athlete, but given 500 at-bats in the majors, I’m confident I could hit .100.
 
Sometimes I think we tend to over-value the degree to which ‘natural talent’ influences our lives, while undervaluing ‘effort.’ Hitting a major league fastball is damned tough, but most of us, if we did it enough, would find out that we’d start to make contact. Not all the time, certainly, and perhaps never with enough force to hit a homerun or a double. But most of us could hit a few grounders through the hole. Most of us, given the chance, would rise to the challenge. We’d hit .100. 
 
Since 1961, 134 pitchers have notched 500 at-bats in the major leagues. Of those 134 pitchers, only six had batting averages lower than .100.
 
 
Number of Pitchers
Percentage
Career BA > .100
128
95.5
Career BA < .100
6
4.5
 
Breaking it down further, major league pitchers are more likely to hit above .200 than below .100.
 
 
Number of Pitchers
Percentage
Career BA > .200
16
11.9
Career BA .151-.199
59
44.1
Career BA .100 - .150
53
39.6
Career BA < .100
6
4.5
 
I’ve seen Pedro Martinez bat, and I am confident he’s no more of a major league hitter than I am. But he’s managed a .100 batting average throughout his career.
 
Back to Ankiel: most of you know that Ankiel was a great young pitcher. And I mean historically great: at twenty he struck out 194 hitters in 175 innings. Then he had that awful ALDS game where he couldn’t find home plate, and his pitching career was over.
 
He’s back. He’s a centerfielder now and a fine hitter, posting a .264/.337/.509 line last year. If Ankiel isn’t a triumph of will over ability, I don’t know who is.
 
Matt Cain, Giants – Cain has pitched very well over the last two seasons, but has a lousy record to show for it (15-30). Let’s band together and unilaterally swap his W-L record with Matsuzaka’s, shall we?
 
Johnny Cueto, Reds – Who’s going to have a better career, Volquez or Cueto?
 
Obviously, Volquez had a tremendous 2008 season: 17-6, 3.21 ERA, 202 K’s. A fine season for a twenty-four year old to have. Cueto was less brilliant (9-14, 4.81 ERA, 158 K’s in 174 IP), but he’s also two years younger than Volquez. Who will be better?
 
One way to answer that question is to consider each pitcher’s strikeout ratio, the number of strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, against their age. Which is rarer: a 22-year old who averaged eight strikeouts an inning, or a 24-year old who averages nine?
 
Cueto had 8.17 K/9 IP, which is the 14th best total by a twenty-two year old pitcher. The other guys on that list are pretty impressive: Pedro and Ramon Martinez, Frank Tanana, Drysdale, Sam McDowell, Herb Score. 14th best is impressive: Cueto has a bright future.
 
But Volquez had 9.46 K/9 IP, which is the sixth-best total by a twenty-four year old pitcher. So Volquez is ahead of Cueto, at least by that metric.
 
The Reds have three guys (Aaron Harang being the third) who could led the NL in strikeouts.
 
Prince Fielder, Brewers – Fielder became a vegetarian before the 2008 season, and lost 16 homeruns and .120 points on his OPS from the year before.
 
I don’t think that the vegetarianism caused the drop in power, but even if it did, it’s probably in his best interests to stick to it. Prince’s father, of course, had a great career as a big slugger: great, but predictably short. One could conjecture that Prince is trying to have a longer career than King Fielder did.
 
From what I gather, his wife gave him a book about meat processing that turned him away from the stuff. This is off topic somewhat, but doesn’t it seem that vegetarianism is the in the logical progression of our social morality, in the same way that equal rights for women and minorities was and is. I’m not trying to equate the three; I only mean to say that animal rights falls in line with the movement of our social values. Our grandchildren will wonder why the hell we were so caught up with cheeseburgers and bacon.
 
I’m a dog owner (or as they’d say in California, I share my life with a dog). The idea of eating him is abhorrent, mostly because I feel he has a conscious, autonomous life, a soul of sorts. When my dog rolls around on the grass because it’s warm and sunny, that seems indicative of a soul.
 
So we have these weird moral sensibilities: we don’t eat cats or dogs. Other cultures have different moral sensibilities: the Japanese have few qualms about eating whales. In India cows are sacred. You get the point.
 
The thing about these sensibilities is they’re illogical: a dog is no more or less alive than a manatee, or a lamb. We feel like there is a difference, but rationally most of us can acknowledge that there isn’t a real difference. Sit with a cow for an hour and watch the thing chew its cud, and gradually it’ll come to you that it is as alive and conscious in its way as Lassie is. 
 
What has prevented us from acknowledging the autonomy of animals has always been our own need: we had to eat other animals to survive. But we’re entering (or we’ve already entered) an age where we no longer need to kill animals to survive. In fact, killing animals to survive has become a less efficient means of eating: it’s easier to grow an acre of soybeans than it is to raise a cow.
 
That’s a long detour: what I mean to say is that there is an inconsistency in our thinking, and sooner or later it’ll get resolved. Vegetarianism will succeed for two reasons: 1) it is more efficient, and 2) it is more morally tolerable. In a few years we’ll see a tofu dog racing the chorizo and the braut in Miller Park. And in a generation or two that tofu dog will be winning most of the races.
 
Back to our regular programming…
 
Jeff Francouer, Braves – Give credit to the Braves: they sure stuck by Francouer last year. Excepting a brief stint to the minors, the Braves slotted him into the 6-8 spot in the lineup and let him try to work it out, enduring one bad month after another.
 
I’m glad they did, but boy, if there were signs of life they are tough to see. He walked a little bit more, struck out a speck less. His best month was September, when he hit about as well as any replacement level outfielder would hit.
 
He’s a fine defensive rightfielder, which almost justifies the team’s patience. Here’s hoping he comes around.
 
Tom Glavine, Braves – Have you noticed the trend among old pitchers to sign with good teams in pitcher’s parks? Glavine goes to the Mets, who play in a huge park and were contenders when he signed with them. Maddux went to the Padres and Dodgers. Clemens went to the Yanks (big park, good team) and then the ‘Stros. Randy’s with San Francisco, which is a weak division.
 
It’s smart: what better way to disguise the five miles-per-hour you’ve lost on your fastball than sign with the Padres? What better way to notch some cheap wins than sign with the Mets?
 
Don’t know why the Braves wanted him back: if he notches 150 innings he’ll have the worst ERA in the league.
 
Adrian Gonzalez, Padres – I hope playing in Petco doesn’t keep him out of the Hall of Fame. Adrian is one of the most underrated player in baseball right now, due entirely to Petco Park. Without exaggerating an inch, Gonzalez would hit .300 with 40-50 homeruns in any other park. If he had stayed with the Rangers he’d hit 60.
                      
Rich Harden, Cubs – For years people have been saying that Harden would be terrific if he stayed healthy. Last year, finally, he managed to get 148 innings, and damned if he wasn’t as good as advertised: 10-2, 2.07 ERA, 181 strikeouts in 148 innings.
 
Trevor Hoffman, Brewers – It could’ve been handled better, but it was the right thing to do. Having a closer is the last thing the Padres need to worry about.
 
Unless Lee Smith miraculously picks up steam, Hoffman will be the next relief pitcher elected to the Hall of Fame. Hoffman has the saves, but Smith had the edge in innings pitched, 1289 to 989. Over their careers, Smith was more valuable to his team than Hoffman has been.
 
Ryan Howard, Phillies – He’ll be the next generation’s Jim Rice. When he’s up for the Hall of Fame, all of the guys who watched him play will talk about how he was the ‘most feared’ player of his day, and point out all the times he finished high in the MVP voting. And those of us who can look beyond ‘fear’ and ponder his ‘worth,’ well, we’ll probably be talking about how great and underappreciated someone like Carlos Beltran was. The more things change.
 
Anyway, enough picking on Howard. He’s a left-handed hitter, as most of you know. Last year, he hit more homeruns to leftfield than right, which has been common throughout his career: he almost always hits more opposite field homeruns than pulled homers.
 
If I had to guess, I’d say Howard is more likely to age well than a traditional pull-hitter would. When Rice lost his bat speed, it seemed to happen overnight…he had to change his entire game to compensate, and it didn’t last. One has the sense that Howard’s ability to drive baseballs to the opposite field will help him stick around longer than Rice.
 
Chris Iannetta, Rockies – I like Iannetta. He’s the National League’s version of Joe Mauer: a catcher who gets on base, draws walks, and hits for good power. People love Russell Martin, but I’d take Iannetta over Martin in a cool second and not think twice about it.
 
Nick Johnson, Nationals – Can we get a do-over on this career? Please?
 
Randy Johnson, Giants – Is it just me, or has Johnson been sort of forgotten about? He’s a truly great pitcher; the third best pitcher of his era, behind Clemens and Maddux. For the range of his accomplishments, it sure seems he isn’t talked about much.
 
Anyways, he’s still striking out hitters. RJ was forty-four last year, and he struck out 173 in 184 innings. He’s two seasons away from crossing 5000 strikeouts. I hope he gets there.
 
One of the five best lefties of all-time, the other four being Grove, Spahn, Koufax, and Carlton. I’d take Randy over everyone but Grove. 
 
Chipper Jones, Braves – You would have to say that Jones is one of the eight best third basemen in baseball history, which means that the Braves have enjoyed the careers of two of the eight best players at third base. Darrell Evans, in the top-12 at third, also broke through with the Braves.
 
Eddie Mathews had a big edge early in his career, but Chipper is coming on strong. At thirty-six, Mathews was a part-time player heading out of the game. Chipper was thirty-six last year and he had the finest season of his career. Mathews is still ahead, but Chipper is closing.
 
Interestingly, neither player was ever the star of their team. Mathews was overshadowed by Aaron, while Chipper hasn’t gotten nearly as much attention as the Braves pitchers did.
 
Andy LaRoche, Pirates – The difference between his minor league and major league numbers are dramatic: .294/.380/.517 in the minors, .185/.288/.272 in the majors.
 
I think the very best thing the Pirates could do is tell him he has a job and let him play out the season. No reason not to.
 
Brad Lidge, Phillies – I didn’t think he’d make it back, honestly. Not after 2005, not as a closer. Obviously I was wrong.
 
Tim Lincecum, Giants – Lincecum, Wood, Prior, and Koufax. Those are the four players to average 10 or more strikeouts per nine innings pitched at Age 24.
 
There is a lot of talk about Stephen Strasburg right now. He’s a pitcher at San Diego State College, and the buzz is he’s fantastic. On April 11th of last year, he struck out 23 batters in a game against the University of Utah.
 
Tim Lincecum was a great college pitcher, a dominant strikeout pitcher. He also (predictably), had control issues. He learned to pitch better – his walks decreased steadily - but he was mostly raw ability. His college numbers:
 
 
AGE
IP
ERA
K/9
BB/9
WHIP
Lincecum
20
112
3.53
12.9
6.6
1.47
Lincecum
21
104
3.11
11.3
6.1
1.27
Lincecum
22
125
1.94
14.3
4.5
1.1
 
Here are Strasburg’s college numbers:
 
Strasburg
18
37
2.43
11.4
3.6
0.89
Strasburg
19
97
1.57
12.3
1.5
0.79
 
What’s shocking is Strasburg already has the control. At nineteen, he’s the college pitcher Tim Lincecum was at twenty-two. He’s one of those pitchers who could probably pitch well in the major leagues right now, a Dwight Gooden, Bob Feller, Gary Nolan-type.
 
Carlos Marmol, Cubs – Say you manage a professional team. Say it’s a good team, one that figures to contend in 2009, but you need a closer. Let’s say, hypothetically, you have two options for the spot.
 
One is a 25-year old fireballer who struck out 114 hitters in 87 innings last year, while posting a 2.68. He played on your team last year, patiently accepting the set-up role in anticipation for the chance to close in 2009. His fastball clocks in at 101 miles an hour.
 
The other guy is thirty-one. He’s a free agent, new to your team, and he lost the closer gig on another team last year because of a string of blown saves. He struck out 58 hitters in 68 innings, while walking another 37. He posted a 3.41 ERA. His fastball was not 101 miles an hour.
 
Who ya gonna take? Who’s your closer?
 
The Cubs went with the other guy.
 
Brian McCann, Braves – Had another terrific year at the plate, which makes it two out of the last three. Allowed 93 out of 120 runners to steal last year, and runners are 255/327 over McCann’s career (78%).
 
Lastings Milledge, Nationals – There are some positive indicators for Milledge entering 2009. His walk rate improved while his strikeout rate dropped. Hit well in the second half (.299/.355/.448). Could post an OPS around .800 this year.
 
The line on the Nationals is that they’ll pick up any malcontented player, so long as the price is low. I wonder, though, if we’re misunderstanding things: I think the Nationals sign players who are good, but who are undervalued because of a messy track record.
 
Milledge has a reputation, which stems from three incidents. First, there were charges of having sex with a minor, news that got a lot of attention when he entered the amateur draft. Then there was his rookie mistake of giving high five’s to fans after hitting a homerun, which led to some courageous Met veteran to leave an anonymous note on his locker telling him to “Know Your Place.” Lastly, he appeared in a rap song, which had some unflattering lyrics.
 
You can see the old guard of sportswriters sort of frothing at the bit, can’t you? This is a bad seed: Lastings Milledge represents the decline of baseball and Western Civilization as we know it. Sex with a minor? High-fives? Rap? It’s the Troika of the Apocalypse, if you ask them.
 
It’s a crock. Milledge was fifteen and in high school when he had sex with the minor, which isn’t meant to excuse the behavior, only to put it in an appropriate context. And yes, the school responded, probably because the school had to respond: we live in an age of litigation, and the school had to protect itself. No charges were filled.
 
The homerun? C’mon. It was his first big league homer, and it happened in the bottom of the 10th, against the Giants closer, and it tied the score. Who wouldn’t show emotion? Let’s cut a kid some slack.
 
As for rap…well, we can all agree that rap is the worst thing ever. I mean, Bill O’Reilly writes fiction novels where men demand oral sex from women, and he still gets to pretend he’s a bastion of some higher morality. But a ballplayer who sings about the exact same topic, well, all hell’s gonna break loose. The Mets had to release a statement saying that Milledge’s rap song didn’t representative the fine values of the Mets organization, which, coming from the Mets, says a lot.
 
Alright: I’m coming off the soapbox. I don’t know Lastings Milledge, and I’m not in a position to pass any kind of judgment on the quality of his soul. But he’s a fine player, and the Nationals were smart to pick him up.
 
Daniel Murphy, Mets – The Mets are convinced of his ability, and are planning to bat him second in the lineup. I’m less convinced, but he sure looks promising, and I like it when a team gives its full commitment to a young player. The Rangers are doing this for Elvis Andrus, which has always struck me as a smart way to bring up talented young hitters, by giving them high expectations.
 
Roy Oswalt, Astros – I wonder how much a ‘clean’ statistical record improves your chances at the Hall of Fame. By clean, I mean a record that has no obvious holes, no years where the guy stumbled. Lou Gehrig has a clean record (obviously). Don Sutton.
 
Tommy John and Fergie Jenkins have nearly identical records: 288-231 for John, 284-226 for Jenkins. But John’s season-by-season record is all over the place, whereas Fergie’s record is consistent. Fergie had no trouble getting into the Hall, whereas John is still waiting. I think it matters a great deal.
 
Anyway, Oswalt has a clean record, and is a good contender for the Hall of Fame because of it. If he misses some time, if he has a weird 8-13 year, then his chances will come down some.
 
Juan Pierre, Dodgers – The first victim of the sabermetric era: if Pierre had come into the league five years earlier he would’ve had a long, full career. Now he’s hanging on to a roster spot.
 
Pierre is like Willie Wilson. In some ways he’s better than Wilson: Pierre strikes out less and draws more walks. He’s like Wilson, but not as valuable: his success rate at stealing is low (75%). He seems like a nice guy, though I imagine he goes home every night cursing the folks who invented VORP.
 
Albert Pujols, Cardinals – I have him on two of my three fantasy teams, after years of wanting him. Which means he’s be injured by mid-May. Player of the Decade, obviously.
 
Manny Ramirez, Dodgers – Is he the best player who never won an MVP? Certainly he’s in contention, with Mel Ott and Eddie Mathews being the other contenders.
 
Last year there was a game against the Yankees where Manny was brought in to pinch hit for Boston against Mariano Rivera. The game was tied in the top of the ninth, two outs, runner on third base. Rivera threw three straight strikes past Manny, who never moved a muscle.
 
I was watching that game. At the time I thought it was proof of Manny’s greatest as a hitter: he hadn’t seen the pitch he wanted, and he wasn’t going to bother swinging on a good pitch, against a good pitcher. He was waiting for the mistake.
 
In light of everything that followed, I’ve been wondering if I completely misjudged the entire event. Maybe he was trying to prove a point, to stick it to management.
 
I hope I’m wrong: I don’t like thinking the worst about people, and I always loved watching Manny. But the whole fiasco in Boston has me questioning everything. What do you guys think? Did anyone watch that game? Did Manny go up there intending not to swing?
 
Hanley Ramirez, Marlins – In my life there have been three trifectas of great shortstops. In the 1980’s we had Trammell, Ripken, and Smith. In the 1990’s we had A-Rod, Jeter, and Garciaparra. Now we have Ramirez, Reyes, and Rollins. What’s interesting is that this trio plays in the same five team division.
 
Like Jeter, Nomar, and A-Rod, they’ve taken turns being the best shortstop in the NL. Win Shares by year:
 
2006 - Reyes 28, Ramirez 25, Rollins 25
2007 - Rollins 28, Ramirez 27, Reyes 24
2008 - Ramirez 32, Reyes 28, Rollins 24
 
Jose Reyes, Mets – Is 200 stolen bases behind Henderson at this point (493 to 290). Interestingly, he's 200 bases ahead of Lou Brock, who only had 83 at Jose’s age.
 
Brock had his best stolen base season in 1974, when he was thirty-five years old (118 steals). He got a late start to his career, which makes it surprising that he broke the career stolen base record. Stealing bases is a young man’s skill, a skill that declines with age. So Lou Brock had two things going against him in chasing Cobb; he had a late start, and he was pursuing a young player’s record. It’s remarkable he broke it.
 
Jimmy Rollins, Phillies – Rollins has a career OPS+ of 99, which is not impressive. That said, he seems an excellent candidate to make the Hall of Fame. Rollins has played eight years in the majors. He’s notched 846 runs, 1481 hits, 307 doubles, 90 triples, 125 homeruns, and 295 steals. Double those numbers and you have a player nearing 3000 hits, with 600 doubles and well over 1500 runs scored. His speed will drop, but it’s not out of the question that he finishes with 500 stolen bases.
 
He’s a shortstop and has a few Gold Gloves. He won an MVP and a World Championship. He’s a good candidate to reach 3000 hits, and if he’s close I think someone will be inclined to give him a chance.
 
Johan Santana, Mets- I’ll take him for the NL Cy Young. This isn’t a particularly bold choice, so I’ll add that his ERA will be under 2.00.
 
Alfonso Soriano, Cubs – In an article last year, I complained about Soriano not walking that much, which is a tree/forest kind of thing. He doesn’t walk a lot, but there are a lot of positives. He hits for average and power and is a terrific base stealer. He is supremely underrated as a defensive leftfielder, mostly because he throws sidearm from the outfield. Throwing sidearm looks strange, but it’s damned effective: Soriano has registered more base-runner kills than any other leftfielder over the past three years. He’s a fine player.
 
The article was about Hitter Intelligence, or something like that, and it mentioned Soriano a little bit. Basically, I said that Soriano had a lot of characteristics that suggested he wouldn’t age well as a player. One reader thought I was taking an unfair swipe at Soriano, which I wasn’t. He just didn’t do well by the metrics of the article.
 
That said, I wonder if the reader wasn’t picking up on something unconscious, because Soriano is one of my least favorite players. Not to sound like an old-timey sportwriter, but Soriano has always struck me as a “me-first” kind of player, and I generally dislike those guys. Plus, yeah, he never walks.
 
I wonder if anyone remembers this anymore: when he was traded to the Nationals years ago, the team announced that he would move to leftfield. Soriano tried it out, and then he pulled a tantrum about it, refusing to go out to leftfield during the team’s first spring training game. Here’s a new team with a new manager, and their star leftfielder won’t take the field. It turned into a weird stare down, with the Nationals going so far as to have Soriano listed as a disqualified player, and having MLB void his contract. Soriano eventually caved: he shifted to left and had the best season of his career. 
 
The same thing is going on in Chicago, where Soriano has held on to the leadoff spot in the Cubs lineup. There are obvious reasons why Soriano shouldn’t bat leadoff, the number one being that Soriano had the worst on-base percentage of any Cubs regular last year. Yet he was allowed to bat leadoff the entire year.
 
You can be damn sure it’s a matter of management cowing to a player’s demands. Someone asked Piniella about it recently. Here’s how Piniella responded:
 
“He said, ‘Lou, you can do whatever you want,’ So we’ll see. To me, he’s still my leadoff hitter. I love him in the leadoff spot. But we can see how it looks. We’ve got plenty of time in the spring to see where things shake out.”
 
You see what happened, right? Piniella had to ask Soriano about it. Soriano told Piniella that Piniella could do what he wanted. But it’s Soriano granting Lou the authority, which means it’s Soriano’s call.
 
Think about it: why should a player have to remind Lou Piniella that he can do whatever he wants with the team? If Piniella wanted to bat the guy with the lowest on-base percentage lower than first in the batting order, shouldn’t he damn well do it? But he hasn’t, and he won’t. Soriano might ceed the leadoff spot in April, because he’s having leg problems. But as soon as he’s back to 100% he’ll be at the top of the order again, and there isn’t anything the Cubs will do about it.
 
Frank Robinson stood up to Soriano. He sent a clear message that Soriano wasn’t the manager, that he wasn’t above the team. And Soriano, once he realized that Robinson wasn’t going to budge, well, he had the best year of his career.
 
The problem is, once you start one pattern, it’s tough to go change directions. You date a woman and you start off paying for all the meals, it’ll be tough to get her to split the check six months in. The Cubs should have moved Soriano out of the leadoff spot years ago, but they didn’t. They said, “Let’s wait and see if we can reason with him.”
 
That was when Soriano was an okay leadoff hitter: now he’s the worst leadoff hitter on the team and they can’t budge him.
 
Geovanny Soto, Cubs –Three Cubs now. I know I pick on the Cubs a lot. Here’s the thing: I actually like the Cubs. They have a rich history and great fans. Chicago is the most beautiful city in America, especially in the summer, and Wrigley is about the finest park west of the Charles River to watch a ballgame.
 
The Cubs fans deserve a winner. But as long as the Cubs management continues to make dumb, bone-headed decisions, it’s not going to happen. Batting Soriano leadoff is a dumb decision: it won’t kill them in 2009, but it sure as hell isn’t going to help. Letting Soriano dictate where he bats is a mistake. Kevin Gregg is a decent closer: he won’t cost them the division all by himself. But Carlos Marmol would be a far better closer: he has the stuff to be a star. Kevin Gregg, at his best, is only Kevin Gregg.
 
And the Cubs, they do this all the time. Two years ago the Cubs, in the thick of a pennant race, were wasting at-bats on Jason Kendall and Michael Barrett, who frankly couldn’t hit a lick between ‘em. Meanwhile Geovanny Soto was wasting his third year in AAA ball, where he put together a .353/.444/.652 line in 110 games. Look at that again: Soto hit like Albert Puojls in AAA, as a catcher, and the Cubs wanted to give at-bats to Michael Barrett?
 
Rich Hill is another one. Hill notched 183 strikeouts in 195 inning in 2007. He has three lousy starts in 2008 and the Cubs cut bait. I don’t get it.
 
The Cubs: I want them to win, I really do. But I can’t stand stupidity. The Cubs need to get a whole lot less dumb before they’ll win a World Series.
 
Willy Taveras, Rockies – Taveras had more stolen bases last year than runs scored, 68 to 64.When I saw that, I thought he had to be the only guy to do that.
 
It turns out he’s not. A lot of players have notched more steals than runs scored in a season. Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines did it, as did Vince Coleman (a few times), Omar Moreno, Ron LeFore, and Maury Wills.
 
Taveras is, however, at the low end of the spectrum. All of the other guys stole a lot of bases: 80 bases, 90 bases. It’s tough to score 80 or 90 runs. Henderson’s 130 steal season is one of the ones that counts; it’s tough to score 130 runs in a season.
 
But 68 runs is a reasonable number to have, especially if you bat leadoff. Taveras did bat leadoff, and he couldn’t score that many.
 
Miguel Tejada, Astros – What an awful season. Ugh. He grounded into 32 double plays, walked 20 times in 158 games, with a gawd-awful 5-1 strikeout to walk ratio. He stole seven bases, but was caught seven times. He was a plus defensive player, which is a good thing. I think he’ll be better this year.
 
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks – We need a way to tell these Upton fellows apart. Let’s see…B.J. Upton is a centerfielder for a 1998 expansion team, whereas Justin is a centerfielder for a 1998 expansion team. B.J. played shortstop originally, as did Justin. B.J. came up when he was nineteen, as did Justin.
 
Here we go: B.J. was the second overall pick. Justin was the number one pick. And B.J. is the fast one.
 
Rickie Weeks, Brewers – I’m still high on him: had a .263/.378/.451 line during the second half, which is a positive sign.
 
The Brewers tried him in the leadoff spot last year, which makes sense: he had the second-best on-base percentage on the team, and the Brewers sure weren’t going to put Prince Fielder in the leadoff spot.
 
It makes sense, but I’d try him somewhere else, some place where his low batting average isn’t going to seem so glaring.
 
David Wright, Mets – I think Wright will be the NL MVP this year, the first MVP that the Mets have had. Of course, the Mets will have to win the East for that to happen. He’s a great player.
 
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals – Take a look, sometime, at the ten players most comparable to Zimmerman at his age.
 
Okay: I’ll do it for you. The ten best comps to Zimmerman are Ken Keltner, Gary Sheffield, Eric Chavez, Harlond Clift, Scott Rolen, Hank Blalock, Carney Lansford, Vern Stephens, Jeff Francouer, and Del Ennis. That’s a good list: I didn’t expect it to be that good.
 
Zimmerman is 24 this year. He had an unspectacular year at Age 23. Interestingly, the other ten guys all had tremendous years at age 23, but disappointing years at 24. Also interesting is the fact that most of those guys had very good careers after age 24.
 
Chris Young, Padres – I don’t know why pitchers don’t wear batting helmets with face guards in the major leagues. We’re not far from it, I think. If I were a pitcher I’d wear one.
 
Young was better after the line drive than before (4.12 ERA before, 3.35 after).
 
(Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City, Iowa. He welcomes comments, questions, and irate phone calls from Lou Piniella here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com).
 
 

COMMENTS (37 Comments, most recent shown first)

DaveFleming
I just wish that you'd spend more time writing in the comments section, and less time kicking my butt in the fantasy league, Ventboys.
6:13 PM Apr 19th
 
ventboys
I way overstated the success of Bonds' Giant teams. It was three meaningless years, not three meaningless games. I was paraphrasing something that I heard Gammons say, and I flubbed it. Sorry.
12:51 PM Apr 17th
 
ventboys
Ok, I'll bite. Keep in mind, MRK, that I am just talking my crap, and you are not obligated to take it seriously.

I respect your opinion, my friend, but you might be going a bit too far. While Manny has not been exactly a model for the kiddies, he hit .347-.473-.579 in his last month with the Sox. He has been on teams that won; every year and every team that he has played for has been a winning team. I was really torked that he pushed the equipment manager down, but I didn't hear a lot of players come to that guy's defense. It's possible that the guy had something to do with that himself, that it wasn't Manny acting in some vacuum. Since Manny went to LA, he has been just fine. He hated Boston, and he thought that they all took the game too seriously.

Is Manny weird? Lazy? A cancer? Above the game? Egomaniacal? I am not qualified to answer any of that, and you are not either, are you?

Barry Bonds? His teams played 3 meaningless games between 1989 and 2004. 16 years, and his teams either won or were in the mix for all but 3 games. Even if you think that steroids are the devil's curse, that still means 3 games in 10 years. Even the Babe played on teams that didn't win. Bonds played his entire career alongside no Hall of Fame locks, and only Jeff Kent as a good candidate.

I respect your opinion, but cancer on a baseball team is not a superstar taking a strike, and tanking one frigging atbat out of something like 8 thousand. Cancer is a team full of crappy players that can't hit Rivera at all. Cancer is the Pirates, or any team run by a Bavasi. Cancer is the Yankees keeping all of their cable revenue and being allowed to pick up Bobby Abreau for nothing, and nobody complains. Cancer is small market teams canceling the World Series in 1994 and blaming it on the players. Cancer is baseball changing to a superball, and blaming the inevitable offensive explosion on steroid use, and not bothering to come up with a test for HGH for 6 years and counting. Cancer is George Steinbrenner calling Jason Giambi into his office TWICE, and having him leave that office BOTH TIMES with a batting average under .200 with no power and suddenly start hitting 2 homers a game.

Is Manny a cancer? Possibly, but if he is there are about 20 teams in the league that could use a dose of his chemo.

As I said, I respect your opinion.
3:46 AM Apr 17th
 
mrkwst22
When Manny does things like take 3 strikes never swinging at one, the chorus says "It's Manny being Manny." When he was traded to the Dodgers at least he manned up enough to show he still had awesome skills. But LA will regret signing him this year because Ramirez is an egomaniacal cancer maybe even worst than Barry Bonds. No one, absolutely no one is bigger than the game.
12:31 AM Apr 12th
 
ventboys
Ok, I know that you were all holding your collective breath waiting for the final installment of “The self indulgent poster”, so here goes.

Oswalt- I think that John and Jenkins were separated, in the writers’ minds, by Jenkins’ higher perceived peak. Jenkins finished in the top 3 in the Cy Young voting 5 times and won 20 or more game 7 times over an 8 year period. John finished 2nd twice, 4th once, and won 20 only 3 times. While they have superficially similar numbers, I wouldn’t call them comparable, apples and oranges. Each of them, interestingly, is a charter member of the two most prominent “pitcher families”; the Robin Roberts family for Fergie, and the, well…. Tommy John family for TJ.

The career interruption in John’s case led to a specific surgery, historic in baseball annals, that carries his name. The surgery, along with a very good career, is eventually going to get him in. Even if it doesn’t, his legacy is going to keep his memory alive, more than even most Hall of Famers.

It’s probably too early to judge Oswalt’s Hall chances. He probably needs to nail down a Cy Young award to announce himself as a major contender. He’s off to a terrific start, as is Roy Halladay, who has a very similar career w/l record. Which Roy will be the boy, and which will end up being the vice Roy? You can call me Roy, or you can call me… Ok, I’ll shut up now.

Pierre- I agree with that point, though not the example. Wilson was a good bit better than Pierre. Pierre has put on OPS+ numbers well under 100, while Wilson was somewhat over that marker. I’ve never heard Pierre called a bad outfielder, but I haven’t heard him called a great one either. Wilson was an amazing defensive player. That being said, though, your point is spot on, and your little article was one of those things that remind me why I love your stuff.

Pujols- Did he just call himself out, daring anyone to find evidence of his possible use of PEDs? I love the guy, and I really don’t care what, if anything, he’s putting into his body. However, he’s one of the guys that came into the country before 911, so his birth certificate is also questionable. My man Rob (Dukedogs) is a huge Cardinal fan, but even he talks quietly about how old he is. He’s got to be the best hitter in the game now, though, and he is already a Hall of Fame lock.

Manny- Don’t get me started on Scott Boras. My mother got me started on Scott Boras once…..

Once!!!!

Hanley- He’s going to eventually move to the outfield. Would it be best for his team for him to do it now? The Marlins have some really good young pitching talent, and it won’t help them if Hanley can’t play a strong shortstop behind them. They are going with a kid in center that might not be able to hit .250 at this point in his career. Their firstbaseman is new to the position. This could get ugly. The over/under on Hanley’s errors has got to be in the 30s.

How does that trade look now? I know that the Sox won a WS with Beckett and Lowell playing huge roles, but can you really win a trade when you give up a guy like this?

Reyes- In my opinion Reyes is much more of a factor than he looks to be by the raw numbers. Much like Wills did in the 1960’s, Reyes keeps everyone from being able to get by with guys like McCann, who can’t throw well. All is fair, in love and baseball. McCann himself would probably drive Reyes to the airport and buy his ticket, if he would just move the hell out of his division.

Rollins- We’ve hashed on this guy before. He is probably the Nomar of the group, since he is a few years older than the other two, but he might end up being the oldest one still playing shortstop.


Johan- I’ll go the other way. I am very nervous about him. He is losing his ability to get lefthanded hitters out, which means that his change is not what it used to be. He will be effective as long as he is healthy, but I think that his days as a dominating force might be over. I still love to watch him pitch, though, and if anyone has another gear, this guy does.

Soriano- I’ll leave you to the meat of your article. I agree with it, and it’s some really good writing as well. I do think that Soriano will age well, for a non scientific reason. He’s thin and fast, and he has big time power. The leg injuries seem to be piling up, which he’ll have to deal with. With no research to back it up, it is my “faith” that skinny guys with power and speed age well. Anyone wanna do some research? I won’t, I am too lazy.

Soto- It’s been said already, but Soto’s established level of ability at the time this happened was no better than Barrett’s established level. Soto was in his third year in AAA, as you said, and he had been horsebleep in his first two tries. It’s fairly common for a player to spike his numbers when he is repeating a level in the minors, especially if he’s old for the league. Barrett was coming off of a season which was a good bit better than Soto’s rookie year, at least with the bat. I won’t bother to defend using Koye Hill, though, or Kendall.

That being said, I agree with your premise. Even Andy McPhail couldn’t get them over the hump. He threw his hands up and went off to compete with the Yanks and Sox, who are not nearly as scary as 100 years of history. If Andy can’t fix them, who can?

For years the Red Sox were the shorter, leaner kid trying to beat the big mean Yankee bully. We all rejoiced when they finally took the bully down. The Cubs, however, were never the little blue engine that could. They were the geeky, uncoordinated kid that kept putting his helmet on backwards and digging for worms in right field while the game was going on. We root for them like we root for Lupus in the Bad News Bears.

Taveras- Shhh…. Nobody mention VORP to Dusty….

Tejada- Add in that he aged three years in one year and pled guilty to a felony. This was one of those seasons that would make a good book, if you can find a way to make completely falling on your butt in such a public way compelling. One way might be to cast Brittany Spears and make it a musical. Ok, a musical with someone overdubbing the songs.

We talked about guys that might have a year that really advances their case as a Hall of Fame candidate. How about the other side of the coin? Has anyone had such a combination of factors just destroy what looked like a Hall of Fame career path, all in one year?

Upton- I picked up and reserved him last year in my keeper league. If you believe in genetics, this kid might be amazing. His older brother is an amazingly talented defensive outfielder who stole 44 bases and walked 97 times last year. Little brother looks like he has more power. Skinny guys with big power are always ones that I like to get on my fantasy teams.

Weeks- He scores an amazing number of runs. His hit/walk totals don’t support that, but I will note here that he has been hit by a pitch 47 times in the last 3 years. The Gold Mine mentioned his lack of line drives last year. I am not all that high on him. If you have to split his numbers up to get .263-.378-451, he isn’t going to be an allstar. Sometimes batting average does matter. I would bat him 9th, do the Larussa shuffle. He was made for that spot. He would almost certainly benefit from a move to the AL, for that reason and others.

Wright- I am very high on the Mets this year, so you could very well be wright about that. Utley and Wright are the two best out there that have no hardware after Manny, I think. I traded him for Utley this spring straight up, as I have Longoria.

Zimmerman- I just don’t know about him. He was injured last year, so he should get a pass, but I am skeptical that he has as much upside as a player that was this good, this young typically has. I am probably dunning him for the fact that he plays for such a lousy team. We all know that this can change in a hurry.

Young- Having a helmet on would not exactly help a pitcher’s motion. Those things are heavy. If you have this kid on your fantasy team and he gets traded to a smaller park, RUN. GET AWAY FROM HIM.

Whew. I am done. Somebody wake Dave up and tell him that it’s safe to look up again.

11:46 PM Apr 9th
 
Ron
well...I would think last nights game was not proof that he shouldn't be in the leadoff spot.... after all isn't 1 game is too small of a sample.... However he was responsible for 1/2 of the cubs runs. I think Lou P takes the if its not broke don't fix it attitude... Im more worried about D. Lee being in the 3 spot... Keep up the good writing, I do enjoy your columns
7:55 PM Apr 8th
 
DaveFleming
Well, it's silly to measure eleven games against 228, and draw any sort of conclusion. The Cubs have a 1.000 winning percentage when Soriano pinch-hits for them, but it'd be silly to argue that Soriano should only be a pinch hitter.

He had a great catch last night on a drive in the gap. But just watching yesterday's game, you could see why he probably shouldn't be the leadoff hitter.
1:58 PM Apr 8th
 
Ron
A garbage stat ? wins and losses are now a garbage stat (no disrespect intended)... they won the division with Soriano batting lead off.... yes in a perfect world Soriano's talents belong in a different spot in the lineup.... however the mangers job is to win games.... a larger sample size to a manger may cost the team a division title. That being said Soriano is a fascinating study for me... he has a strange set of skills... He is the lone wolf on a team. It is like he has never learned the game, and yet in some ways, seems to be a natural ball player... I guess you'd say Im a fan of his, but more importantly he intrigues the hell outta me the way he gets his job done
12:24 PM Apr 8th
 
DaveFleming
Thanks, Scott, for the correction about Marmol. I think I confused him with another reliever. Jenks, maybe...the other Chicago reliever. It'd be tough to confuse Bobby Jenks with Carlos Marmol.

To Ron's comment about Soriano batting leadoff: it's true that the Cubs have been far better winning percentage with Soriano batting leadoff than with him batting elsewhere. Which is, no offense intended, a garbage stat. Soriano's made 239 starts with the Cubs, and was the leadoff hitter in exactly 228 of those games (95%). To my mind, eleven games out of 239 isn't enough of a sample size to conclude that Soriano should to be the leadoff hitter.
6:13 PM Apr 7th
 
bokonin
Loved the Soriano and Millege riffs, also agree with you about LaRoche. As for vegetarianism, if it doesn't catch on for moral reasons, which it might, it'll catch on for environmental reasons or world-poverty reasons. The meat industry edges out the automobile industry, is the #1 cause of global warming (methane, oodles of methane!), and the meat industry is also the reason that the world produces enough food to feed the entire world population to nearly 4000 calories a day, but doesn't (the food is given to pigs and cows, and not happy smiling pigs and cows like in Babe and Charlotte's Web). There's a likely limit on how long the displaced farmers of Africa and South America will sit around letting their land grow pig feed and chicken feed for Monsanto.

But I like the "we all raise our standards again" version of events better than the one involving riots.

BACK TO BASEBALL: I've read a lot to suggest than an inconsistent player would have an edge over a consistent one in terms of Hall of Fame support. Three years of 35 homers, or 50/40/15? Three years hitting .280, or .310/.300/.230? Three years of 15 wins, or 20/18/7? The inconsistent version gives you the big numbers.
5:54 PM Apr 7th
 
Ron
It was nice to see Soriano, take my comment about Lead off home runs to heart.

11:31 AM Apr 7th
 
ventboys
My website isn't ready yet, but it will be called ventboys.com when it is. It's a free site, at least for the forseeable future.
10:42 PM Apr 6th
 
Ron
Regarding Soriano, I think there is 1 stat you forget... I believe The Cubs winning % is much higher with him in the lead off spot, than with him in any other place in the lineup... Winning is the objective... He has quite a few leadoff homeruns... That beats a walk and a stolen base anytime
11:46 PM Apr 5th
 
ScottSimkus
One of those pedantic little details (the kind of stuff which makes me cringe when other readers bring them up): But, here goes, Marmol DOESN'T throw 101. He's more low to mid-90s with a ridiculous slider. That being said...I'm torn on him in the closer role. He was, arguably, one of the better "bridge" or "set-up" guys in the NL last year. Dominating. It's like the Devin Hester/Chicago Bears argument. Do you take one of the most talented return men in football history and make him into an average wide receiver? If you're Devin's agent (or Marmol's), and the money is better for wide-outs (or closers), then the answer is yes. All that being said: I wouldn't be surprised if Marmol gets the closer job and some point this year and does well... ahhh, talking baseball....a wonderful distraction from life...Keep up the quality writing, Dave!
8:33 AM Apr 5th
 
lar
Oh, and ventboys, what's the website you're writing for?
11:48 PM Apr 4th
 
lar
Great stuff, everyone.

Dave, keep up the writing; I love it all. Can't wait to read more.

Ventboys, that's a bummer about the messed up site. Glad to see you found a way to get things working. When I'm writing something that I know is important and I don't trust the website, I either copy and paste the text from the website to somewhere else before hitting submit or just type it in Textpad (look into that free software... very simple and straightforward. great for simple stuff) before pasting it into the website.

Evan, you mentioned the first time you remembered questioning certain things... I don't know if this counts, but I remember watching an episode of Seaquest back when I was 12 or something... it was a show that took place only 25 years in the future. Eating beef of any kind was illegal for environmental reasons, and one episode dealt with black-market hamburgers (sort of). Anyway, the genius kid on the show, who had grown up with beef being illegal, said something along the lines of "I don't see how you guys could eat that. I mean, it's a *dead animal*." I couldn't believe that anyone would ever have that reaction to something as tasty as a hamburger. I still don't, but that seemed pertinent to your story.
11:47 PM Apr 4th
 
ventboys
Sorry for the crappy spelling. I made some progress, though. Now I have to get this delusional crap all the way to my MS word, which has a spellchecker. Even morons with delusions like to be neat.

Ok, where did I put my teeth?
5:18 AM Apr 4th
 
ventboys
Next installment:

Iannetta- Again, I don't see him as a comp to Mauer. He is actually somewhat similar to Gene Tenace around 1973, if you take the Colorado air out of his batting average. In my keeper league (10 keepers), I had him and really, really wanted to keep him, but I decided to keep Soria instead. I was able to draft Sandoval, Weiters and Shoppach so I am probably covered. I don't know that his upside is huge. He's 26 this year. I miss him, maybe he will call.

Nick Johnson- Up here in the northwest we had the unique and special opportunity to watch Brad Wilkerson play last year. He wasn't fat or anything, but he didn't look like a 30-30 candidate. He looked more like a guy you would see in the stands, eating a hot dog and drinking a beer. Johnson clearly has some power and one of the best batting eyes in the game, but I wonder if it's just too hard for a guy to compete and stay healthy in today's game if he is not in great shape. Every argument about baseball players working out will be buried in questions about steroids for many more years, but one point gets lost in the shuffle: Most of these guys work out like fiends, year round. Steroids or not, ballplayers don't look like ballplayers any more, they look like bodybuilders. Johnson has never looked like a bodybuilder. He kind of looks like Steve Balboni.

Unit- In early 2000 he was 5-0. At that time his career record was 165-88, the same exact record that Koufax finished with. I predicted on my Strat League message board that it wasn't impossible that he could win 300 games. A guy named Bob Colleary, who is kinda famous as a writer for "Touched by an Angel", among others, was the commissioner of that league, and he hammered me mercilessly on the board for this prediction. It has nothing to do with that prediction, since it was probably insane to expect a 36 year old pitcher with 165 career wins to get to 300, but Colleary is probably the worst human being that I have ever encountered in my life as a baseball fan. I won't get into details, because he is not here to defend himself or counter any charges that I might press. I'll leave it at a couple of simple facts, that can be verified if need be:

This strat league had the home manager play the games, so half of the games were in Colleary's control. His team (they had a losing road record, even before the late season crap) went 29-1 in the last 2 months at home, which allowed him to squeak into the playoffs. He made the championship series, by winning all of his home games in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. He had 3 home games in the "WS", and he won all 3. He lost all 4 road games, the final one was something like 57-2. He kicked half of the league out at the end of the season (I had quit earlier, when all the crap started, but I kept tabs. I couldn't look away from this train wreck, and I had some good friends still in the league), and as far as I know the league went kaput. The board ended about a month after the season ended.

Some of you have probably played strat or APBA, or one of those simulation games, so you are aware that it is the easiest thing in the world to cheat at it. I haven't bothered since then because, with my personality, the game is just too slow for me. Once fantasy baseball matured in the internet, there was no reason to go back. I do miss it, in some ways.

Chipper- Chipper had never finished higher than 5th in batting average in his career through his age 30 season, despite having finished in the top 11 in the MVP vote for 7 consecutive years. He dropped out of the top 10 after that, and even hit .248 in 2004. After 8 consecutive 100 rbi seasons and 7 out of 8 100 run seasons he failed to reach either mark from age 32 to age 34. He missed 105 combined games in 2005-2006, ages 33 and 34.

In 2007, at 35, he finished 2nd in batting average. He scored and drove in over a hundred runs despite missing almost 30 games. In 2008, at 36, he won the batting title. I looked all over BBR.com, and I couldn't find any reference to the hot wings at Hooters, or whether they were depressing his batting average. So much for that theory.

Andy LaRoche- Is he the one that is related to Peter Marshall? Yaknow, for years I thought that Penny Marshall was Peter Marshall's daughter. I wondered why she was so weird looking. I watched one of those reunion episodes of "Happy Days", and it was pretty much hosted by their producer, GARRY Marshall. The resemblence is amazing, and I really wish that I had known that 30 years ago. I really like both of them, I am not casting aspersions at all. Now that I know where the phrase "jumped the shark" came from, I can finally sleep at night. We need term limits for sitcoms. Hell, while we are at it can we just shoot any singer that wears leather pants after their 40th birthday?

Whitey Herzog saved Jeff Burroughs' career, when his obsession with never swinging at anything but a total meatball got out of hand. If I am the Pirates I get ahold of Whitey, issue him a bullwhip, and introduce him to my man Andy.

Lidge- I saw this cool thing a month or so ago, when the moon and Venus were so close together that it looked kind of like the hammer and sickle. Isn't that the Russion Flag, or the USSR's old one?

Every ONE of you was expecting me to say that one of them was Pujols' homerun, admit it. I am above such things. Besides, there was this crater found in the Sahara in early 2007 that matches the stitches on that ball.

Lidge should be very proud of himself, for getting over such a public meltdown. Steve Blass sure as hell would be proud of him. Lidge's being avble to avoid having to meet Blass and get pictures taken with Ralph Branca at a card show is one of the more admirable feats of the last few years.

Lincecum/Strasburg- The hype for the Aztec kid is over the top. 11.4, 12.3 k/9 is just not that special in those leagues. His K/bb are even less impressive. Lots and lots of pitchers at that level have had those k/bb numbers. Hell, I can find a couple dozen in any given year in class A that have better ratios, and class A is well over the league the the Aztecs play in, isn't it?
He might be great, but lets get real. It's a long way from college to the show. This is an example of too much information, in the age of information. I won't say that he isn't terrific, and that he isn't the BEST PITCHING PROSPECT EVER. I don't know. I DO know that nobody else knows, either. We are still overhyping pitching prospects, the format might change but the emotional need remains the same.

Repeat after me: There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Has anyone seen Sydd Finch lately?

Timmy, though, I'll buy into his hype. He's amazing.

Marmol- I lost my work the other day, and someone else already said what I was going to say. Give Gregg the 70 closer innings, he can do that fine. He's a good pitcher. Give Marmol 90-100 Joba styled innings and he'll have more impact on the Cub's fortunes than he would protecting 3 run leads.

McCann- Poor man's Piazza. 327 attempts is a huge number for the number of games that he's caught. Baseball is just too hard at the highest level to find shortcuts. Give the guy another mitt, and let him rake somewhere else. Guys that can hit like this are not THAT easy to find, and catcher is the most important defensive position on the field. If it wasn't, John Wockenfuss would be in the Hall of Fame, or some other ridiculous example of a crappy defensive catcher with a good bat like Gene Tenace.

SLAM!!!!!!!

Milledge- Agreed. I am too old to get the younger generation, but I can still remember being the younger generation. My generation marched in parades and held signs in support of cocaine, orgies and getting rich by manipulating the stock market. Personally I never did any of those three, though I would have been hip to the one in the middle, especially if I got to BE the one in the middle, but never mind. I would guess that the uniquely named one is no better or worse than anyone that he grew up with. Kevin Mitchell was similarly labeled. He had his problems, but he didn't rob a bank or anything. He just kinda got fat.

I rarely give a crap what anyone does off of the field, and I get irritated when the 4 letter word network tries to shove this drivel down my throat. In this case the problem isn't that he wallows in the stuff that young people wallow in. The problem is that he needs to get better to be relevent as a major league player. The bar is set at a very high level, and Milledge needs to prove that he is more interested in that bar than the slippery, sticky one that Pacman Jones rained his career down upon. I have no reason to believe that he won't be up to it, but I can't say that he's convinced me of anything yet. Lets see it first. I don't give credit on potential after I get a rubber check.

I want to go back and be a fly on the wall when his parents were picking names. Bob? James? Lamarcus? Samuel? Russell? Julie? Dweezil? Moon Unit? Hell, we are bored and remarkably stoned. Lets call him Lastings. At least he will be the only one in his kindergarten class with that name.

Poor kid. He goes to the mall to get a license plate for his bike, and he is screwed. 36 jennifers, 25 jasons, 7 thousand Jessicas, no Lastings. He is stuck, 50 cents short of the price for a special print. If anyone out there knows his parents, you have my blessing. Make it slow and painful. Tell them that I said hi.

Murphy- And then Sheffield showed up. Oops, sorry girl, I didn't even know that she was going to be here. I'll be right back, we are still on for the midnight movie, don't you worry. I'll just be a minute.




5:00 AM Apr 4th
 
ventboys
Hey, it worked!!! Now what in the hell did I do?
1:44 AM Apr 4th
 
ventboys
Ok. I typed this one on my wordpad, and I am going to take a shot at pasting it to the site. Wish me luck.

Ankiel- I'll leave that .100 thing alone. It's possible, with enough practice and lessons from a qualified pro, for an average talent to be a low handicap golfer. After 30 years of trying, I am not one whit better than the first time that I hit a golf ball. It's curious to me, though, that so many of the "Steve Blass disease" pitchers went under the knife eventually. Ankiel did, Wohlers did, who else? I think that there were more, but I don't have a list handy. Anyone?

Cain- He's in search of an "Abel" offense.....

Get it? HUH???? Ok, I am just sad and pathetic. Biblically speaking it's interesting that half of the first 2 people born on Earth ended up murdered. Even New York doesn't have a murder rate that high. Can we call that progress?

Cueto- With Dusty as their manager, they should probably draw straws to see who gets to take him out and serve the 25 to life, and who gets to have a career. I have my man Johnny as about 2-1 against lasting long enough for Joe Morgan to learn how to pronounce his name.

Fielder- The popular line against this is that animals, if allowed to grow unchecked, will upset the balance of nature. I'm not smart enough to predict the end result of that, but there is only one animal that I can think of that has no serious natural enemies. That would be us. Take us out of the equation, and every living thing in the world is eaten eventually by someone or something. Actually, we are as well - after we die, like elephants and the larger whales. Nature always takes back what it gives. I don't know that I agree that it is illogical to eat animals, but I see no reason to argue with those that do. Just keep your hands away from my face when I am eating a corndog.

Francouer- Is it possible that there is a syndrome working here, undetected? Steve Blass disease affects pitchers that are unable to throw strikes. Maybe there is a "Frenchy" disease, rendering a hitter unable to get his body to trust his eyes. The symptoms would be an inability to take a pitch that MIGHT be a strike without thinking about it in advance. Blass sufferers can throw strikes when there is no batter in the box, but can't do it in live action, as their brain gets in the way. Is it possible that this can happen to hitters? I am probably wrong, and Frenchy's problem is just a simple weakness; one that is common among amatuers and less common as the bar is raised and ones with this weakness are simply weeded out.

Glavine- Interesting thought, Dan. Intelligence is hard to measure in sport at the top levels. The physical requirements are so demanding that the data pools for deliniating intelligence are fairly small, and usually impossible to separate from physical variations. You might have found one, but again the data pool is not large enough to be sure. It's intriguing. As far as Glavine's current abilities, I won't assume that he will stink while Jamie Moyer keeps making comebacks.

Gonzalez- You might be exaggerating a bit there. 40-50 I'll give you, but it's a long way from 36 to 60 and Texas' Stadium (what's that place called?) was run neutral last year. It was probably a fluke, but look it up. It surprised me too. The Rangers led baseball in scoring last year, in what was a run neutral park. They have a pretty good crop of good young pitchers coming up, including one of the game's best prospects in Neftali Feliz. You can do the math.

Obviously a guy that can hit 36 homers in that park at 26 years old has some mad skills, and bigtime power.
Gonzo holds his bat a bit lower, but in every other way he looks just like a young version of Sean Casey in the batters' box. Casey didn't build on his power base, but I do believe that Gonzo will. He's gone 24-30-36. Put me down for 42 this year. Ok, how about 32 with a bullet?

Harden- I know that it's not politically correct to say this, but can we get this guy some HGH and see what he can do with it? He used to hit 98-99 and blow everyone away, but that wasn't what he did last year. He was in the 89-91 range in some games, and even in his better ones he was rarely hitting even 94 or 95. This kid is not just a hard thrower. He can flat create on the mound, and make major league hitters look silly even without the stuff that he brought to the dance when it started for him. Bret Saberhagen was like this, but Sabes was never this good. I vote for a harship exemption, so that we can see him pitch 250 innings and post a line that they will be talking about for a hundred years. Hell, lets pump him full of testoserone and see if he can strike out 500....

Ok, I guess not. Back to the beads and the tarot cards.

Hoffman- I don't know that I can recall any pitcher being this consistent on paper while so completely changing his repertiore. Hoffman used to pitch a lot like Smith, using his changeup off of a 96-97 mile per hour fastball. By 1998 he was hard pressed to even hit 90 with his fastball. I watched him in the playoffs that year, and I wondered how in the hell he got anyone out.

Howard- Rice? Dave, I think that I see what you are getting at but they are extremely different players. The rats in Rice's cellar are very different than Howard's. Howards hit into 31 double plays - in his last three years combined. I am not sure who would be the proper comp for Howard, or the proper current comp for Rice, but I would never see them as being comparable to each other. I do agree that Howard might age well, but not if he is still striking out this much.

I better quit this for now and see if I can get it to post to the site. I'm starting to get lazy about what I am talking about.




1:43 AM Apr 4th
 
ventboys
Re Johnson, Ryan, Schilling and Smoltz, those guys actually prove the point that young pitchers have to be protected.

-Johnson didn't win his first major league game until he was 24, and his minor league career high inning total was 140. He pitched 160 innings total in 1989, at 25 years old.

-Ryan pitched 205 innings between A, AA and 3 innings in the show at 19, then missed most of his age 230 season, I think he was in military service. From ages 21 through 24 he averaged just under 130 innings per year and just barely went over 150 in his age 24 season. He then tossed those 284 innings for the Angels at 25 years old.

-Schilling's inning totals in the minors from ages 20-22 were 184, 151 and 185. He added a few innings in the majors in the last 2 years, his total at 22 years old was 193 innings. He then spent a year and a half in the bullpen in the majors after another 14 starts, 87 innings in AAA at 23 years old. His total innings in those 2 years were 133 and 98. He then pitched 226 innings for the Phils at the age of 25.

Smoltz was handled differently, as we all know. He pitched 146 innings at 20, 135 at 21 in the minors, then had 12 starts, 64 innings in the show for a total of 199 innings at 21. He was then durable as hell for the next decade. In his 30's he's been fragile, but overall he's quite the exception that proves the rule.

Ryan, Johnson and Schilling were protected early, for the most part, and then pushed harder after their 25th birthday. I did a study along these lines several years ago, and I can say with confidence that Smoltzie was an extreme exception to the rule of 25, as I came to call it. Only 2 pitchers of that period were able to pitch fulltime in rotation before the age of 24 and not get hurt within 4 years. Greg Maddux and Bert Blyleven. Even Clemons, he was 24 when he was worked hard and it was common knowledge back then that he rarely threw breaking balls in his time at U of Texas.
12:05 AM Apr 4th
 
evanecurb
I posted something in response and lost it, although it was more like 15 minutes instead of 4 hours worth. Good work, Dave. I enjoyed your discussion of vegetarianism; I have sometimes wondered what activities we engage in now that our great great grandchildren will believe were totally barbaric. Not sure eating meat is one of them, but who can say? The first time I wondered about this was when I was a child, and I learned that our founding fathers had been slave owners. What's going on today that will seem barbaric in the future? I don't know. Perhaps something to do with the healthcare system, the environment, or the criminal justice system?

Dave, thanks again for all of your contributions.
9:33 PM Apr 3rd
 
PeteDecour
this and its companion article were a lot of fun. wish you would do more of these. I disagree with you on the inevitability of vegetarianism (and think you overestimate its newness and trendiness) but that was a fun read as were the other articles. very well done
1:54 PM Apr 3rd
 
DaveFleming
Yeah, Nolan, Feller, and Gordon all blew out pretty quickly, as did a lot of other young strikeout pitchers. But Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Schilling, and Smoltz all lasted a long time.

It's been well documented that college pitchers tend to do better in the majors than high schools who come up through the minors. I wonder if part of that reason is college pitchers pitch far fewer innings than players coming up through the minors. A college pitcher; they can't pitch too many innings at a young age, the schedule makes it impossible. A young pitcher in the minors could (if the team allows) pitch a high number of innings. Most don't, but there isn't a structure in place to prevent it.

Anyway, I think most teams are getting wise to the fact that you should limit the wear on a young pitcher. He might still blow out the arm, of course, but I think there's less of a chance he turns into Nolan or Feller or Gooden.
12:50 PM Apr 3rd
 
chisox
Sorry, but, you lost me at "Most of us, given the chance, would rise to the challenge. We’d hit .100." I like your articles, but that one just stopped me in my tracks.

12:46 PM Apr 3rd
 
birtelcom
Interesting that you use Nolan, Gooden and Feller as Strasbourg comparisons. Gooden was basically an average pitcher after age 22, Nolan was never the same after age 24. Feller lasted a few years longer in age, but that's probably because he didn't pitch from sge 23 to 25, during WWII. Strasbourg better make sure he gets some really big money up front.
10:55 PM Apr 2nd
 
ventboys
I had another one get the same treatment on my own site last night as well. 6 hours and nothing. My new mantra: Copy and paste. No, that not quite right....

Copy and paste, you moron....

Ok, thats about right. Heck, maybe now I'll be able to format so that my posts don't look like text messages. Its been a wild ride the last couple of weeks, starting up a new website. I am lucky that I have a couple fo people here locally that believe in me, and I am getting some help from them on my steep learning curve. For my next trick, I might take a shot at learning how to use a knife and a fork.
12:48 PM Apr 2nd
 
Richie
Your post isn't hidden or stored away anywhere, Vent. It is most probably just gone. There's nothing for them to retrieve. Just about all sites have a 'timing out' function, or else they wouldn't work.

I'd prefer you keep posting.
12:05 PM Apr 2nd
 
DaveFleming
Yeah, I live in Cubs country (Iowa has their AAA team, it's the closest MLB franchise, etc), so I'm sure I'm just venting some of the angst about them that has built up over the years.

I will say: it'd be great (exciting, even) if the reason the Cubs went with Gregg as closer is a recognition of a better usage pattern. But I doubt that's the case. All I've heard is that Piniella went with Gregg because he had the better spring. It might be the case that the Cubs have lucked into a smart strategy, but as far as I can tell it doesn't seem willful.

And ventboys, that's rough man. It's happened to me, too, that I've lost a comment to the cyberspace void. Now when I have a long post, I'll either 'copy' it every few sentences, or just write the thing in Word.

I'd still bet that we'll be seeing a long and witty response from you today. Because you can't resist, damnit.
9:43 AM Apr 2nd
 
SeanKates
Also, I don't have any feelings at all about the Cubs, but I think you're debiting them where it's inappropriate.

Barrett was a good hitting catcher. From 2004-2006, he hit 16 homers a year at around a .280/.350/.490 rate. His lowest OPS+ was 108. Soto was repeating AAA for the third time not because he was blocked by an inferior player, but because until 2007, it wasn't clear he could hit even AAA pitching. His first two years in AAA look like this: .253/.357/.342 and .272/.353/.386....with a combined 10 homers as a 22 and 23 year old. To say he was an obvious upgrade over any established major league catcher, let alone a GOOD one, is definitely hindsighting the crap out of the situation.

Rich Hill's "three bad starts" were Ankiel bad, and then he had approximately 10 equally terrible starts in the minors. He contracted Steve Blass disease on the way to becoming a good starter, and was out of options. A division winning team can't carry someone like that on their team, so they traded him to someone who could.

The Marmol/Gregg setup is better for the team. We've somehow come full circle and simultaneously shown that closers don't get the most leveraged innings and then decried managers for not putting the best pitcher in the closer role. Marmol will throw more innings and more innings that matter the way it is. Better for all.

And Soriano. Well, you're right about Soriano. I think he's probably a better person than you think he is, but we agree that he's a small child and should be dealt with as such.
7:16 AM Apr 2nd
 
ventboys
I should know better. I will put my wool coat on and just say nice article, Dave. I know that you would not mind my stuff.
3:14 AM Apr 2nd
 
ventboys
That one seemed to work fine. Four hours, man. Where is it? I did everything right. Is there some kind of limit? Is so, where in the hell is that published? I at least want it back. I spent four hours on it. I don't take this lightly, I will raise hell. It was published. It can't just go away, with no trace. I typed it with the intention of copying it to my website later.

If I can't get this back, there is no way in hell that I will ever bother to post here again.

FOUR HOURS......
3:04 AM Apr 2nd
 
ventboys
I just spent 4 hours typing on this subject, even made sure that my screen name was typed in. I hit send, and it disappeared. I won't waste my time like that again if it is not going to be at least looked at. Is it in some purgatory?
3:01 AM Apr 2nd
 
Marinerfan1986
You are surprised that Piniella took Kevin Gregg over Carlos Marmel? You shoulden't be. Sweet Lou has a track record of picking veterian pitchers over youn and,in his eyes, inexperienced pitchers. He did that for years in Seattle. Lou doesen't trust young pitchers. He is smart enough, however, to recognize a pitching coaach who knowes his stuff and when he finds one he trusts his judgment. He did that with Brian Price, and got a better pitching staf for seeveral years here. Hopefully he will be able to due the same thing with the Cubs.
12:30 AM Apr 2nd
 
SeanKates
Great, another double post...I can't believe I ostensibly write for this site and still haven't figured it out.

And all I wanted to do the second time was to make a joke about eating Lastings Milledge....
4:04 PM Apr 1st
 
SeanKates
I'm convinced, I will definitely eat a dog or a cat to be consistent.
4:02 PM Apr 1st
 
SeanKates
I'm convinced, I will definitely eat a dog or a cat to be consistent.
3:53 PM Apr 1st
 
 
©2024 Be Jolly, Inc. All Rights Reserved.|Powered by Sports Info Solutions|Terms & Conditions|Privacy Policy