Alex Rodriguez, Yankees - We have the suggestion, floated in a new book, that Alex Rodriguez tipped pitches to opposing hitters. There are two possibilities:
- Alex Rodriguez did, in fact, tip pitches to opposing hitters, or
- Alex Rodriguez didn’t tip pitches to opposing hitters.
Let’s take the first one. For A-Rod to have actually tipped pitches, we must assume the following:
1. That A-Rod talked to a few players on opposing teams, asking them to collude in a plan that any eight year-old would recognize as ethically compromised. This would require a near-ludicrious line of conversation.
2. That all of the players asked agreed to go along with A-Rod’s plan. Otherwise, we would already know about it. Someone would have come out by now to announce, “Yeah, A-Rod approached me about cheating, but I turned him down.” In fact, it is extremely likely that any player approached by A-Rod about cheating would go directly to his team and/or the media as soon as it happened.
3. That A-Rod had some degree of trust with the other players, enough so that he knew they wouldn’t rat him out to the press or his team. And as far as I can tell, making friends and influencing others isn’t one of A-Rod’s great strengths.
4. That the catcher, pitcher, manager, second basemen, and third-basemen didn’t know about the plan, and failed to notice Alex signaling to the opposing hitter.
5. That the 10,000-50,000 casual observers who watched the games didn’t notice anything, either.
6. That the press, generally negligent in their coverage of all things A-Rod, needed six years to unearth this story.
7. That A-Rod is a man without any kind of ethical compass, even in regards to the game he desperately wants affection from.
That’s a lot of assumptions. Too many, I think.
The whole thing about steroids makes sense: I can understand why A-Rod would want to use steroids. I get it. It fits his personality. But do I think he’d involve other players in a plan to cheat. I don’t. It’s too much of a stretch.
Breaking it down further: consider just the first one: the moment when Alex Rodriguez discussed this plan with an opposing player. Imagine you’re Alex. How the hell would you have that conversation? Over drinks at a nice restaurant? At the batting cage, out of earshot from your teammates? In the tunnel between clubhouses? Where the hell do you start to discuss something like that?
And how would you start the conversation? Would you casually hint about it, to see if the other player is receptive? Or try the direct approach? (“I’d like to cheat on tonight’s game. Interested?”)
The other scenario requires no leaps in logic. It requires us to assume only that Alex Rodriguez has the same ethical barriers that 97% of us have.
Wandy Rodriguez, Astros – Here’s a weird tidbit: over his career, Wandy Rodriguez has been the embodiment of the center of pitchers. He’s the exact average.
Comparing his career to all pitchers in 2007 (the middle of Wandy’s career, and the year he pitched a career-high 182 innings):
In his career, Wandy has gone 42-42 with a 4.52 ERA. Per nine innings pitched, he has averaged 9.1 hits, 3.3 walks, 7.3 strikeouts, and 1.0 homeruns allowed.
In 2007 all pitchers went 2431-2431 with a 4.47 ERA. Per nine innings pitched, they averaged 9.3 hits, 3.3 walks, 6.7 strikeouts, and 1.0 homeruns allowed.
Manny Ramirez, Dodgers – Who’s left? Ken Griffey Jr. is the big one, I suppose, him or Pujols. The last clean superstars.
The Dodgers must be thrilled: they save $7 million bucks in these Tough Economic Times, and they get a rested, eager-to-prove-something Manny for the autumn stretch. Meanwhile Juan Pierre gets a little playing time. Everyone wins.
Joe Mauer, Twins – Last year, Mauer didn’t hit his first homerun of the season until June 2nd, the 51st game he played in. He finished the year with nine homeruns in 536 at-bats, which works out to one bomb per 60 at-bats.
Oh, how the times have changed. Mauer hit a homerun during his first at-bat of the season, and has 10 homeruns in just 80 at-bats, a Ruthian rate of homerun hitting.
Such a dramatic turnaround is rare but not unprecedented. Most of you probably remember when Kirby Puckett went from four homeruns in 691 at-bats in 1985 (a ratio of 1:172) to 31 homeruns in 680 at bats in 1986 (1:22).
Anyway, Mauer is playing about as well as anyone in the game today, posting a .429/.516/.844 line in 21 games. What is remarkable is that might not even be Mauer’s best 21-game stretch. Between May 19th and June 13, 2006 he posted a .489/.541/.705 line.
So will Joe Mauer hit .400 this year?
It’s not out of the realm of possibility. He has two batting titles and is entering his prime. And like Brett and Gwynn, Mauer has missed part of the season, which certainly helps.
Not surprisingly, Mauer has shown a tendency in the past to decline as the season progresses. In 2006, when he won his first batting title, there was a noticeable drop-off when he entered the dog days of summer:
|
2006
|
April
|
0.319
|
May
|
0.386
|
June
|
0.452
|
July
|
0.293
|
August
|
0.276
|
Sept/Oct
|
0.337
|
Total
|
0.347
|
However, when he won his second batting title last year, Mauer’s summer decline was far less dramatic:
|
2006
|
2008
|
April
|
0.319
|
0.295
|
May
|
0.386
|
0.333
|
June
|
0.452
|
0.341
|
July
|
0.293
|
0.307
|
August
|
0.276
|
0.323
|
Sept/Oct
|
0.337
|
0.365
|
Total
|
0.347
|
0.328
|
This is all wildly speculative. Hitting .400 is hard to do. Doing it while playing catcher is ever tougher. I’ll say this, though: if Mauer’s over .400 come mid-August, I wouldn’t bet against him.
Adam Dunn, Nationals – Here’s an interesting fact: Dunn has played on exactly one All-Star team. That was in 2002, when he finished with 26 homeruns and a .249 batting average.
In the years since, Dunn’s put together five straight 40-homer, 100-walk seasons. He’s been weirdly consistent over that span:
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
BA
|
.266
|
.247
|
.234
|
.264
|
.236
|
HR
|
46
|
40
|
40
|
40
|
40
|
RBI
|
102
|
101
|
92
|
106
|
100
|
Runs
|
105
|
107
|
99
|
101
|
79
|
SO
|
195
|
168
|
194
|
165
|
164
|
Walks
|
108
|
114
|
112
|
101
|
122
|
OBP
|
.388
|
.387
|
.365
|
.386
|
.386
|
Look at just his OBP: in four of the five seasons here, it varies by just two one-thousandths of a point.
What’s weird is no one has taken any notice.
Think about it: don’t most baseball players who do the same thing over and over again tend to get rewarded? I mean, Boggs and Gwynn used to hit .330 like clockwork, and they always made the All-Star team. Same thing with Killebrew or Strawberry.
I’m not saying Dunn deserves to go to All-Star games. That’s not really my point. What’s weird is that he hasn’t gone to any games, despite the fact that he put up a lot of gaudy numbers for a team that never had a real ‘superstar’ presence.
Alright, one more comment: the players who did represent the Reds for the All-Star game, in all those years that Dunn was hitting 40 homers:
2008 – Edison Volquez
2007 – Ken Griffey, Jr., Francisco Cordero
2006 – Bronson Arroyo
2005 – Felipe Lopez
2004 – Sean Casey, Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Larkin, Danny Graves
And here’s who led the Reds in Win Shares each year:
2008 – Votto (though Dunn had more cumulative Win Shares than Votto).
2007 – Dunn
2006 – Arroyo (one more WS than Dunn)
2005 – Dunn
2004 – Dunn
I get Arroyo. I sort of get Larkin and Griffey. But Sean Casey? Danny Graves? Felipe Lopez? C’mon.
Rickie Weeks, Brewers – Maybe it’s just me, but I’ve always sort linked Weeks with Juan Samuel: two second basemen with tremendous talent who are a challenge to put to any kind of real use.
As a hitter he’s like Juan Samuel: low batting average, good power, high strikeout totals. Weeks has slightly less power than Samuel did, but he’s better at drawing walks. Like Samuel, Weeks is fast: Weeks doesn’t steal 50-70 bases like Samuel did, but he doesn’t get caught nearly as often, either. Despite their speed, neither Weeks nor Samuel were terrific fielders.
So what do you do with a player like that? You can’t lead him off, because the strikeouts and the low batting average will kill you, and you can’t hit him in the 5-spot because he don’t have quite enough power. He can’t quite play second, but where else can you use the speed? Center?
Players like Weeks are interesting in that they force us to confront the weird preconceptions we have about the game. Gene Tenace was this kind of player, as is Jack Cust and Joe Mauer. They don’t fit any kind of mold.
Anyway, I’m sad that Weeks is out for the season. He’s one of my favorites.
Roy Halladay, Blue Jays – It’s sure shapping up to be a two-pony race for the AL Cy Young. At this writing, Halladay is 8-1, 2.52 ERA, while Greinke is a 7-1, with a mind-boggling 0.82 ERA.
It will be interesting to see if team standingstarts to influence the Cy Young race. As you are all probably aware, a team’s standing has a dramatic impact on how the MVP vote goes: it is very hard to win an MVP on a losing team. For the Cy Young, it’s different: right now it doesn’t matter how your team does, so long as the pitcher’s individual W-L record is strong.
That might start to change. Certainly, Halladay and Greinke are big reasons why their teams are doing so well right now. If the Royals fall out of contention, or if the Red Sox or Yankees slip past the Jays, the success of a pitcher’s team might start to enter the debate.
Jake Peavy, White Sox Padres – Last week the Padres and white Sox agreed to terms of a trade that would send Peavy to Chi-Towne in exchange for four prospects. After thinking about it for a day, Peavy used his no-trade clause to eschew the deal.
Made sense to me. If I was a pitcher who had to be traded, I’d want to a) go to a winner, a playoff-bound team, or b) go to a team that would make me look like a good pitcher.
The Padres are 21-22 right now, while the White Sox are 19-23. The White Sox might have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Padres, but they’re in a five-team battle of mediocrity in the AL Central, and they’re not great candidates to win that battle even with Peavy.
As far as making Peavy look like a good pitcher: there probably isn’t a worse team than the White Sox for him to go to. Chicago has an anemic offense, the second worst in the league at scoring runs. They have the worst defensive efficiency in the AL, and they play in a hitter’s park.
San Diego might have a useless offense (apart from the brilliant Adrian Gonzalez), but they turns balls-in-play into outs and play in a spacious stadium. If I were Peavy I’d hold out for the Dodgers or Mets to call.
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals – The NL East has a lot of talent on the left side of the infield. At third they’re represented by Wright, Chipper, and Zimmerman, while at short they have Reyes, HanRam, and Rollins. Not a bad bunch.
Zimmerman had a 30-game hit streak snapped last week, and is one of a bunch of National players who are having terrific years at the plate. Only the Phillies, Rockies, and Dodgers have scored more runs than the Nationals have this season.
For all that hitting, the Nationals have a 12-30 record on the season.
This is a little detour: do you think you could do a good job as a General Manager of an expansion baseball team? If you were given the reigns of the Iowa City Intolerables or the Missoula Mimeographs, do you think you could create a decent team?
From what I gather, Manny Acta is the most sabermetrically knowledgeable manager in baseball. He’s the only manager I’ve heard use terms like VORP.
I mention this because it occured to me: don't the Nationals seem like a team that one of us would design? Meaning no disrespect to Manny Acta and the GM in Washington, but isn't this the team that a lot of us would cobble together if given the chance?
Think about it: Adam Dunn is sort of an icon to those of us who recognize that a strikeout is no worse of an out than a grounder, those of us who like low-BA, high OBP hitters. Nick Johnson is an underachiever, someone who I’d be eager to take a risk on. Dukes is a basket-case, but he’s really talented. Lastings Milledge could be great. And I’ve been waiting for Zimmerman to break out for three years now.
Same thing holds true with the rotation: Scott Olsen has some issues, but if I’m trying to create a team I’d take a flier on him. Daniel Cabrera? Sure, he walks a batter an inning, but he has that good K-rate and he’s young. All of their pitchers are young.
If I were trying to create a team, I’d focus on the hitting first. That’s what I’d worry about: scoring runs. Because I think that hitting is the most important aspect of the game, I’d do exactly what the Nats have done: go after the underappreciated hitters and give some young pitchers a chance.
What’s my point? Well, the Nationals make sense to me. There is a logic at play that I understand.
But it isn’t working. They’re a lousy team
Which means I probably know even less about baseball than I think I know. Which wasn’t much to begin with.
Justin Verlander, Tigers – Has 77 strikeouts in 56 innings this year, the best total in the major leagues right now. Just saying.
Nomar Garciaparra, A’s – Is Nomar a Hall-of-Fame player?
Among players who played at least 50% of their games at shortstops, Garciaparra has the fourth-best adjusted OPS:
Rank
|
Name
|
OPS+
|
PA
|
1
|
Honus Wagner
|
152
|
9640
|
2
|
Alex Rodriguez
|
147
|
9144
|
3
|
Arky Vaughn
|
136
|
7721
|
4
|
Nomar Garciaparra
|
124
|
5989
|
5
|
Derek Jeter
|
120
|
9221
|
6
|
Lou Boudreau
|
120
|
7023
|
7
|
Vern Stephens
|
119
|
7240
|
8
|
Joe Cronin
|
119
|
8838
|
9
|
Barry Larkin
|
116
|
9057
|
10
|
Robin Yount
|
115
|
12249
|
In his peak years, Garciaparra was one of the finest hitting shortstops ever, winning consecutive batting titles in 1999 and 2000. At his peak, there is no question Garciaparra was a HOF-level player.
The question is where or not he will play long enough to warrant serious consideration. Right now, he is about 3-4 years away from having the same career length as Boudreau, Vern Stephens, Joe Tinker, and Phil Rizzuto.
Zack Duke, Pirates – Not really a comment about Zack Duke.
The Pirates sort of the polar opposites of the Washington Nationals. Their offensive is anemic, ranking 12th out of the 16 National League teams in runs scored. But they have the fourth-best team ERA in the NL, and the best defensive efficiency in the league.
Chase Utley, Phillies – The new Craig Biggio, Chase Utley has been hit by nine pitches this year, after leading the majors in 2007 (25 HBP) and 2008 (27 HBP).
Utley has 97 career HBP’s, which is about a third of the way to the major league record (either Craig Biggio’s 285 or Hughie Jennings’ 287, depending on which record you prefer).
If we allow that 20-25 HBP per year is Utley’s established rate per season, then he’s 8-10 years from the record. Utley is thirty this year, and could very well play another ten years.
Utley is ahead of Biggio, who had 85 HBP. Utley is drawing close to Baylor (108), but is a mile behind Ron Hunt (177 HBP at the end of his Age-30 season). He could do it.
David Ortiz, Red Sox – No baseball player has ever given me more joy than David Ortiz has.
It has been Boston’s practice, in recent years, to not allow affection to color management decisions. The Sox were quick to move Nomar and Manny, and they didn’t offer wild extensions to Damon or Pedro. As a Red Sox fan, I have been happy that the team has been willing to make such hard decisions.
Ortiz is going to be an interesting test. If the bat doesn’t come back, it will be interesting to see how the Red Sox respond; how they will address the situation. I hope he comes back: baseball is richer with guys like Big Papi in it. If he doesn’t, well, I hope whatever ending comes is fitting to all that he’s given us.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City. He welcomes comments, questions, and any advice for how to turn around his woeful BJOL fantasy team here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.