The only secret in the NBA is Rajon Rondo; that’s what I’ve decided. I’ve been doing a little work on the NBA, trying to get answers to a few questions that I am manifestly unqualified to answer. Is LeBron actually the best player in the league? If so, what is his winning percentage? Could we make Win Shares and Loss Shares for him? Who is the best point guard in the NBA? Is Shaq washed up? Is Kobe overrated? Are Double Stuff Oreos considered a health food in Bolivia?
To answer any of these questions would require a sophisticated understanding both of the NBA and its statistics, which I do not have. I will suggest some answers here, but I hope everyone understands I’m just trying to work through the problems, not suggesting that I know the answers.
OK, how do we rate NBA players? In the past I have rated players, particularly college players, by the formula
Points Scored
Minus Field Goals Missed
Minus Free Throws Missed
Plus Rebounds
Plus 2*Assists
Plus 2*Steals
Plus Blocks
Minus 2*Turnovers
Minus .6*Fouls Committed
Per 48 Minutes
(or per 40 minutes in college)
I created a spreadsheet which has all of the relevant stats for all NBA players this year. In working with this formula over the past few days, I have made two changes to this formula.
First, I increased the penalty for a missed shot from 1.00 to 1.50. There were three reasons for doing this.
1) When I figured the data for all NBA players this year and created an All-Star team, the first team (and second team, and third team) had far more shots taken than could reasonably be explained if they were an actual team. This had to mean, it seemed to me, that I was in essence arguing that “taking shots is good.”
2) Charging players a negative 1 point for a missed shot but +2 when they make a shot is, in effect, establishing a marginal value base of 33% for a two-point shot attempt. It’s a way of saying that a player is helping his team if he can hit 34% of his shots, or 26% of his three-point attempts. There is certainly some value in being able to get off a shot in the NBA, but the 1.50 penalty establishes the marginal base at 43% for a two-pointers and 33% for a three-pointer, which seems more reasonable.
3) When I made this adjustment, the rankings of teams vis a vis their won-lost performance obviously improved. I didn’t even have to figure it; it’s just obvious.
The other change, reducing the value of an assist from 2 points to 1, is something that people have tried to tell me before that I needed to do. I used 2 points for an assist based on this logic: that the point guard, who has the responsibility to handle the ball, inevitably will turn the ball over some of the time. If you charge him two points for a turnover and only credit him with one for an assist, it causes point guards to be valued lower than other players.
That may be true in college, I don’t know. I thought it was true, when I ran these kind of numbers before. It’s not true in the NBA, anyway. When I figured the league leaders with assists valued at two, I had too many point guards and too many high-assist players rated among the league’s top players. Although, in truth, when I reduced the value of assists I did wind up with a system which may have some tendency to favor the Bigs.
So I made those changes to the formula, and I figured the best players in the NBA. I will call these “Ponts”, as opposed to “Points”. Points in the NBA are the points the player scores; Ponts will be the basis of the value we assign to each player in this analysis, as a result of the formula above. This is step one. After Step One, the best players in the NBA this season would be:
1.
|
Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets point guard
|
30.7
|
2.
|
LeBron James, you probably know all about him
|
29.9
|
3.
|
Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic center
|
27.2
|
4.
|
Dwayne Wade, Miami Heat shooting guard/small forward
|
26.2
|
5.
|
Paul Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers forward/center
|
25.4
|
6.
|
Marcus Camby, Los Angeles Clippers forward/center
|
25.3
|
7.
|
Andris Biedrins, Golden State Warrions center
|
25.1
|
8.
|
Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics forward
|
25.0
|
9.
|
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs forward
|
24.9
|
10.
|
David Lee, New York Knicks forward/center
|
24.5
|
My first observation here is that this is a list of few and small surprises. The players on this list—LeBron, Dwight Howard, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Chris Paul—are among the biggest stars in the league, and my accounting appears to be merely endorsing, for the most part, the common opinion. Yes, it’s a little surprising that Kobe isn’t in the top 10; yes, it’s surprising that Andris Biedrins is. But it’s not a generally shocking or original list.
The next thing we have to adjust for is the pace of the game. Some teams have more possessions than others. I adjusted for this by figuring the Ponts for and against each team, and adjusting this to the league norm (which was 13.81 Ponts per 48.)
This changes the list above to the following:
1
|
Chris Paul
|
32.6
|
2
|
LeBron James
|
31.9
|
3
|
Dwight Howard
|
29.5
|
4
|
Dwayne Wade
|
27.1
|
5
|
Kevin Garnett
|
27.1
|
6
|
Tim Duncan
|
25.7
|
7
|
Marcus Camby
|
24.8
|
8
|
Yao Ming
|
24.1
|
9
|
Pao Gasol
|
23.7
|
10
|
Al Jefferson
|
22.7
|
This is an even more conventional list than the last one, with Yao Ming and Al Jefferson replacing David Lee and Andris Biedrins.
At this point I spent two days trying to figure a “winning percentage” for each player, based on points per possession, ponts per possession used, points per shot, etc. I made up elaborate systems to estimate what share of the responsibility for his team’s offense that each player bears. I figured “possessions consumed” by each player, and worked to jiggle the formula so that possessions consumed tended to balance for and against each team, as logically they must.
All of that was pretty much a waste of time. You may know that the Pythagorean exponent in the NBA is 14. . .that is, an NBA team’s expected winning percentage is:
Points Scored ^ 14
--------------------------------------------------
Points Scored ^14 + Points Allowed ^14
I think Darryl Morey discovered this; it’s pretty well known, and it works amazingly well. The data is stable. These are the actual and predicted Won-Lost records for all NBA teams by this formula for 2008-2009:
|
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
1.
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
65-17
|
66-16
|
2.
|
LA Lakers
|
61-21
|
65-17
|
3.
|
Boston Celtics
|
61-21
|
62-20
|
4.
|
Orlando Magic
|
59-23
|
59-23
|
5.
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
56-26
|
54-28
|
6.
|
Houston Rockets
|
53-29
|
53-29
|
7.
|
San Antonio Spurs
|
52-30
|
54-28
|
8.
|
Denver Nuggets
|
50-32
|
54-28
|
9.
|
Utah Jazz
|
48-34
|
48-34
|
10.
|
Dallas Mavericks
|
47-35
|
50-32
|
|
|
|
|
11.
|
New Orleans Hornets
|
46-36
|
49-33
|
12.
|
Atlanta Hawks
|
46-36
|
47-35
|
13.
|
Phoenix Suns
|
46-36
|
46-36
|
14.
|
Miami Heat
|
42-40
|
43-39
|
15.
|
Philadelphia 76ers
|
41-41
|
41-41
|
16.
|
Chicago Bulls
|
40-42
|
41-41
|
17.
|
Detroit Pistons
|
40-42
|
39-43
|
18.
|
Indiana Pacers
|
38-44
|
36-46
|
19.
|
Milwaukee Bucks
|
38-44
|
34-48
|
20.
|
Charlotte Bobcats
|
37-45
|
35-47
|
|
|
|
|
21.
|
New Jersey Nets
|
34-48
|
34-48
|
22.
|
New York Knicks
|
34-48
|
32-50
|
23.
|
Toronto Raptors
|
33-49
|
33-49
|
24.
|
Golden State Warriors
|
31-51
|
29-53
|
25.
|
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
27-55
|
24-58
|
26.
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
26-56
|
24-58
|
27.
|
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
24-58
|
23-59
|
28.
|
Washington Wizards
|
21-61
|
19-63
|
29.
|
Sacramento Kings
|
19-63
|
17-65
|
30.
|
LA Clippers
|
18-64
|
19-63
|
As you can see, there is a very close relationship between actual and predicted won-lost records, but 14 actually is not the most accurate Pythagorean exponent for the NBA this year. The most accurate exponent this year is 15.78.
That’s for Points. For Ponts, on the other hand, the most accurate exponent is 3.86. One cannot predict wins and losses in the NBA as accurately based on Ponts as on Points, of course, and this may cause some people to wonder, “Why not simply base your evaluations on actual Points Scored, since this is the most accurate way to predict wins?”
Because Points Scored in some cases don’t accurately represent Points Created for the team. Basing an NBA evaluation entirely on Points Scored would be like basing a baseball evaluation entirely on Runs Scored. Sometimes the guy who scores the run is not the player who is most responsible for the run being scored. In fact, we could compare our analysis in baseball to basketball in this way:
In Basketball
|
In Baseball
|
Points
|
Runs
|
Individual Points
|
Individual Runs Scored
|
Ponts
|
Runs Created
|
Wins
|
Wins
|
Possessions
|
Outs
|
Made Shots
|
Hits
|
Field Goal Attempts
|
At Bats
|
Shooting Percentage
|
Batting Average
|
Points Per Shot
|
On Base Percentage
|
Rebounds
|
RBI
|
Three-point shots
|
Home Runs
|
Missed 3-pointers
|
Strikeouts
|
Turnovers
|
GIDP
|
Free Throws Made
|
Walks
|
FGA + FTA
|
Plate Appearances
|
Blocked Shots
|
Fielding Percentage
|
Steals
|
Range Factor
|
Oreos
|
Twinkies
|
|
|
We’re trying to create a basketball analysis similar to what we can do in baseball. As we can predict wins in baseball based on hits, walks, strikeouts, etc., we should be able to predict wins in basketball based on shooting percentages, steals, etc, at least to some extent.
Anyway, as one can predict wins in basketball by Points ^ 14, one can also predict wins by Ponts ^ 3.86. I’m going to use 4 here (instead of 3.86), because it’s easier and it makes more sense. The NBA average this year was 13.81 Ponts Per 48 minutes. We can thus establish a “Winning Percentage” for each player by:
(Ponts Per 48) divided by 13.81
To the fourth power
Divided by the same, plus one.
If a baseball player creates runs at a rate twice the league norm, this creates an offensive winning percentage of .800 (by some methods. . .there are others.) If a basketball player scores ponts at a rate of twice the league norm, this creates a winning percentage of .938 (16 to 1.)
Thus, we can state the winning percentages of the players listed above as follows:
|
|
Points
|
Winning Percentage
|
1.
|
Chris Paul
|
32.6
|
.966
|
2.
|
LeBron James
|
31.9
|
.964
|
3.
|
Dwight Howard
|
29.5
|
.954
|
4.
|
Dwayne Wade
|
27.1
|
.937
|
5.
|
Kevin Garnett
|
27.1
|
.937
|
6.
|
Tim Duncan
|
25.7
|
.923
|
7.
|
Marcus Camby
|
24.8
|
.913
|
8.
|
Yao Ming
|
24.1
|
.903
|
9.
|
Pao Gasol
|
23.7
|
.896
|
10.
|
Al Jefferson
|
22.7
|
.880
|
I must say that I am not thrilled to reach this point in my analysis. I tried very hard to find some other way to figure a winning percentage for each player, based in part on the number of shots taken or the number of possessions used (in other words, expanding a player’s responsibility for the success of his team as he takes more shots.) I tried figuring winning percentages based on the number of points above or below average that the player moved the team. I learned from this that it takes about 13 points to move an NBA team one half-game away from .500 (in other words, to win 42 games, 42-40, a team needs to outscore their opponents by about 25 points.) I looked at 50 different ways of doing that, but nothing worked. Nothing delivered consistently reasonable results. I concluded that I just don’t understand the data well enough to do that at this time.
So I wound up with a winning percentage that is, in reality, merely the Ponts Per 48, re-stated in a different form. We can, however, predict the league’s MVP voting with reasonable accuracy by the formula:
Player Winning Percentage * .6
Plus
Team’s Winning Percentage * .4 * Games Played/82
Kevin Garnett thus ranks at .773:
His Individual Winning Percentage (.937)
Times .600 = .5622
Plus Team Winning Percentage (.756)
Times .400 = .3024
Times 57 (Games Played) = 17.239
Divided by 82 = .2102
Total of .7724 (.5622 + .2102).
His “MVP voting percentage” would be .7724. These would be the top ten in the NBA:
1.
|
LeBron
|
.898
|
2.
|
Pao Gasol
|
.851
|
3.
|
Dwight Howard
|
.850
|
4.
|
Rajon Rondo
|
.821
|
5.
|
Chris Paul
|
.809
|
6.
|
Kobe Bryant
|
.807
|
7.
|
Tim Duncan
|
.795
|
8.
|
Joel Przybilla
|
.795
|
9.
|
Yao Ming
|
.784
|
10.
|
Kevin Garnett
|
.772
|
Whereas the actual MVP voting was:
1.
|
LeBron
|
1172
|
2.
|
Kobe
|
698
|
3.
|
Dwayne Wade
|
680
|
4.
|
Dwight Howard
|
328
|
5.
|
Chris Paul
|
192
|
6.
|
Chauncey Billups
|
33
|
7.
|
Paul Pierce
|
21
|
8.
|
Tony Parker
|
9
|
9.
|
Brandon Roy
|
7
|
10.
|
Dirk Nowitski
|
3
|
11.
|
Tim Duncan
|
2
|
11.
|
Yao Ming
|
1
|
Probably as close as we would come to matching the MVP voting in baseball in most seasons. I’m not here to argue that Pao Gasol is “actually” better than Kobe or anything like that. As I’ve said, I don’t know enough about basketball to be making those kind of arguments. Pao rates higher in my analysis.
One of the key things I was looking for was “overrated stars”, or players who are stars but don’t deserve to be. I didn’t really find them. Shaquille O’Neal still rates among the top 30 players in the league. Chauncey Billups, Grant Hill, Carlos Boozer, Steve Nash. . .they’re all effective players. The only true big name player who I rate in the bottom half of the league is Allen Iverson, and I don’t imagine that’s a big surprise to most people; I think most people know that Iverson’s pretty much done. Tracy McGrady doesn’t rate well, I guess, but McGrady’s reputation by now has taken more hits than Cheech and Chong.
On the other end there are more “discoveries”. Let’s start with Rajon Rondo.
I saw Rondo play, live at the Garden, about five times in his rookie season. In all honesty, I didn’t think he was going to be much of a player. He doesn’t have the size and power of Jason Kidd or Chris Paul, or the penetrate-and-take-charge aggressiveness of Nash or Iverson, nor the uncanny command of the floor of John Stockton or Jason Kidd. He’s thin and looks a little deferential, he’s not a great shooter, and for much of that season he was backing up Sebastian Telfair, and you know, nobody looks great backing up Sebastian Telfair.
But when people talk about the best point guards in the NBA now they talk about Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash, and even Baron Davis. I don’t see the evidence that those guys (other than Paul) are better than Rondo. Rondo takes good shots, hits them, takes care of the basketball and finds the open man. He is also, despite his size, one of the best rebounding point guards in the NBA. Although his size may be a problem in defending some players, he was fourth among the league’s point guards in steals.
If you compare Rondo to Deron Williams, Rondo rates ahead in field goal percentage, three point percentage, rebounds and steals. Williams rates ahead in free throw percentage, assists, and assist-to-turnover ratio, but that’s 3.18 to one vs. 3.15 to one; Rondo’s ratio is the fifth best in the league.
If you compare Rondo to Steve Nash, 2008-2009, Nash has 58 more assists, which is certainly nice, but Rondo has 94 more steals (149-55), 193 more rebounds (416-223), and 39 fewer turnovers. Do you trade 94 steals and 193 rebounds for 58 assists with 39 turnovers? I don’t think so.
For years, Paul Pierce was dragging the Boston Celtics into the early rounds of the NBA playoffs without a lot of help, and, as good as Pierce is, he was never quite good enough to make that work. In 2007 the Celtics added Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, which gave them three superstars and, for one season, a great team.
This year Garnett was hurt and Ray Allen much of the time couldn’t hit a bathtub with a bar of soap, so it was back to Paul Pierce dragging the team behind him—and yet, they won one round of playoff games and almost won the second round. How’d that happen?
Rajon Rondo; that’s how it happened. The Celtics have a really good player who just hasn’t been recognized yet as a really good player, perhaps because he’s hidden behind the three amigos. This is how I rate the NBA’s true point guards this season; I’m sure my decisions about who is a “true” point guard are sometimes wrong:
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Adjusted PP48
|
Winning Pct
|
|
Chris
|
Paul
|
New Orleans Hornets
|
32.6
|
.969
|
|
Rajon
|
Rondo
|
Boston Celtics
|
22.5
|
.876
|
|
Jason
|
Kidd
|
Dallas Mavericks
|
19.8
|
.809
|
|
Tony
|
Parker
|
San Antonio Spurs
|
19.8
|
.810
|
|
Deron
|
Williams
|
Utah Jazz
|
19.2
|
.790
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jose
|
Calderon
|
Toronto Raptors
|
19.5
|
.799
|
|
Chauncey
|
Billups
|
Denver Nuggets
|
16.9
|
.692
|
|
Steve
|
Nash
|
Phoenix Suns
|
16.9
|
.692
|
|
Mike
|
Bibby
|
Atlanta Hawks
|
14.7
|
.563
|
|
Mo
|
Williams
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
14.3
|
.536
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Raymond
|
Felton
|
Charlotte Bobcats
|
12.7
|
.416
|
|
Mike
|
Conley
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
14.3
|
.536
|
|
Nate
|
Robinson
|
New Yorks Knicks
|
14.8
|
.569
|
|
Jameer
|
Nelson
|
Orlando Magic
|
21.1
|
.845
|
|
Mario
|
Chalmers
|
Miami Heat
|
12.9
|
.433
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T.J.
|
Ford
|
Indiana Pacers
|
13.9
|
.505
|
|
Steve
|
Blake
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
12.9
|
.431
|
|
Kevin
|
Martin
|
Sacramento Kings
|
13.5
|
.480
|
|
Chris
|
Duhon
|
New Yorks Knicks
|
10.7
|
.264
|
|
Luke
|
Ridnour
|
Milwaukee Bucks
|
12.9
|
.436
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D.J.
|
Augustin
|
Charlotte Bobcats
|
12.5
|
.404
|
|
Keyon
|
Dooling
|
New Jersey Nets
|
11.6
|
.331
|
|
Allen
|
Iverson
|
Detroit Pistons
|
11.8
|
.349
|
|
Baron
|
Davis
|
Los Angeles Clippers
|
10.5
|
.247
|
|
Jamal
|
Crawford
|
Golden State Warriors
|
10.2
|
.233
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Louis
|
Williams
|
Philadelphia 76ers
|
10.7
|
.264
|
|
Bobby
|
Jackson
|
Sacramento Kings
|
11.2
|
.301
|
|
Jose
|
Barea
|
Dallas Mavericks
|
10.5
|
.250
|
|
Steve
|
Novak
|
Los Angeles Clippers
|
11.4
|
.318
|
|
Fred
|
Jones
|
Los Angeles Clippers
|
9.8
|
.206
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anthony
|
Johnson
|
Orlando Magic
|
9.6
|
.191
|
|
Sergio
|
Rodriguez
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
10.2
|
.227
|
|
Aaron
|
Brooks
|
Houston Rockets
|
8.1
|
.108
|
|
George
|
Hill
|
San Antonio Spurs
|
9.3
|
.174
|
|
Earl
|
Watson
|
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
8.0
|
.101
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Charlie
|
Bell
|
Milwaukee Bucks
|
7.7
|
.087
|
|
Sebastian
|
Telfair
|
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
6.6
|
.049
|
|
Mike
|
James
|
Washington Wizards
|
6.2
|
.040
|
Kidd rates ahead of Parker, and Deron Williams ahead of Jose Calderon, based on minutes played. I have to say something also about Baron Davis, who at least as recently as a year ago was sometimes listed among the top point guards in the league. Among all NBA players playing 1,000 minutes this year, Baron Davis ranked dead last in field goal percentage, .370. I know that you don’t judge a point guard by his shooting, but you do evaluate him by his judgment. If you’re shooting 37% from the floor, that’s a problem, rather you’re a point guard, a cheerleader or Paul Blart, Mall Cop.
1-2 Combo Guards
Order
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Adj PP48
|
Winning Pct
|
498
|
|
Devin
|
Harris
|
New Jersey Nets
|
17.5
|
.723
|
84
|
|
Derrick
|
Rose
|
Chicago Bulls
|
13.4
|
.469
|
348
|
|
Jason
|
Terry
|
Dallas Mavericks
|
14.5
|
.552
|
109
|
|
Delonte
|
West
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
14.2
|
.528
|
267
|
|
Leandro
|
Barbosa
|
Phoenix Suns
|
15.6
|
.619
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
293
|
|
Rudy
|
Fernandez
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
13.2
|
.459
|
614
|
|
Russell
|
Westbrook
|
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
10.8
|
.271
|
411
|
|
C.J.
|
Watson
|
Golden State Warriors
|
13.0
|
.438
|
168
|
|
Derek
|
Fisher
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
10.8
|
.273
|
26
|
|
Eddie
|
House
|
Boston Celtics
|
14.6
|
.553
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
453
|
|
Michael
|
Redd
|
Milwaukee Bucks
|
15.0
|
.583
|
471
|
|
Randy
|
Foye
|
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
9.4
|
.175
|
75
|
|
Kirk
|
Hinrich
|
Chicago Bulls
|
12.3
|
.389
|
45
|
|
Raja
|
Bell
|
Charlotte Bobcats
|
10.9
|
.278
|
96
|
|
Daniel
|
Gibson
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
7.3
|
.073
|
205
|
|
Daequan
|
Cook
|
Miami Heat
|
7.1
|
.067
|
167
|
|
Jordan
|
Farmar
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
6.3
|
.041
|
Derrick Rose, number two on this list, won the Rookie of the Year Award in an overwhelming vote, finishing first on 111 of 120 ballots. Again, not claiming to know more about this than the people who voted, but my ranking system does not coincide with the Rookie of the Year voting. These are the top 20 rookies in the NBA, and as I would have seen them:
Vote
|
First
|
Last
|
|
My Ranking
|
Team
|
First
|
Last
|
1
|
Derrick
|
Rose
|
|
1
|
New Jersey Nets
|
Brook
|
Lopez
|
2
|
O.J.
|
Mayo
|
|
2
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
Marc
|
Gasol
|
3
|
Brook
|
Lopez
|
|
3
|
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
Kevin
|
Love
|
4
|
Russell
|
Westbrook
|
|
4
|
Chicago Bulls
|
Derrick
|
Rose
|
5
|
Eric
|
Gordon
|
|
5
|
Miami Heat
|
Mario
|
Chalmers
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
Kevin
|
Love
|
|
6
|
Milwaukee Bucks
|
Luc
|
Mbah a Moute
|
7
|
Michael
|
Beasley
|
|
7
|
Miami Heat
|
Michael
|
Beasley
|
8
|
Marc
|
Gasol
|
|
8
|
Sacramento Kings
|
Jason
|
Thompson
|
9
|
Robin
|
Lopez
|
|
9
|
Los Angeles Clippers
|
Eric
|
Gordon
|
10
|
Rudy
|
Fernandez
|
|
10
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
Rudy
|
Fernandez
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
Mario
|
Chalmers
|
|
11
|
Philadelphia 76ers
|
Marreese
|
Speights
|
12
|
Courtney
|
Lee
|
|
12
|
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
Russell
|
Westbrook
|
13
|
Nicolas
|
Batum
|
|
13
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
O.J.
|
Mayo
|
|
|
|
|
14
|
Charlotte Bobcats
|
D.J.
|
Augustin
|
|
|
|
|
15
|
Golden State Warriors
|
Anthony
|
Randolph
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16
|
Washington Wizards
|
JaVale
|
McGee
|
|
|
|
|
17
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
Darrell
|
Arthur
|
|
|
|
|
18
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
Nicolas
|
Batum
|
|
|
|
|
19
|
Orlando Magic
|
Courtney
|
Lee
|
|
|
|
|
20
|
Indiana Pacers
|
Roy
|
Hibbert
|
But Lopez is a center and Gasol and Kevin Love are big guys of some kind, and our system may be too kind to Bigs. It’s very possible that if we had some better sort of positional adjustment, Rose might actually rank first.
Shooting Guards
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Adj PP48
|
Winning Percentage
|
|
Kobe
|
Bryant
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
20.0
|
.816
|
|
Andre
|
Miller
|
Philadelphia Seventy Sixers
|
17.9
|
.739
|
|
Ray
|
Allen
|
Boston Celtics
|
16.2
|
.655
|
|
Vince
|
Carter
|
New Jersey Nets
|
15.8
|
.630
|
|
Joe
|
Johnson
|
Atlanta Hawks
|
14.4
|
.541
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ronnie
|
Brewer
|
Utah Jazz
|
15.8
|
.633
|
|
Ramon
|
Sessions
|
Milwaukee Bucks
|
17.6
|
.726
|
|
Ben
|
Gordon
|
Chicago Bulls
|
12.3
|
.386
|
|
Manu
|
Ginobili
|
San Antonio Spurs
|
22.1
|
.868
|
|
J.R.
|
Smith
|
Denver Nuggets
|
13.7
|
.496
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anthony
|
Parker
|
Toronto Raptors
|
11.7
|
.341
|
|
Jason
|
Richardson
|
Phoenix Suns
|
14.2
|
.527
|
|
Rodney
|
Stuckey
|
Detroit Pistons
|
11.9
|
.355
|
|
Eric
|
Gordon
|
Los Angeles Clippers
|
11.3
|
.309
|
|
Jarrett
|
Jack
|
Indiana Pacers
|
11.0
|
.289
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Richard
|
Hamilton
|
Detroit Pistons
|
12.0
|
.365
|
|
O.J.
|
Mayo
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
9.8
|
.203
|
|
Beno
|
Udrih
|
Sacramento Kings
|
10.5
|
.252
|
|
Anthony
|
Carter
|
Denver Nuggets
|
11.6
|
.333
|
|
Tracy
|
McGrady
|
Houston Rockets
|
14.3
|
.534
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roger
|
Mason
|
San Antonio Spurs
|
9.2
|
.168
|
|
Ronald
|
Murray
|
Atlanta Hawks
|
10.3
|
.240
|
|
Courtney
|
Lee
|
Orlando Magic
|
10.4
|
.243
|
|
Marquis
|
Daniels
|
Indiana Pacers
|
10.1
|
.223
|
|
Sasha
|
Vujacic
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
11.5
|
.327
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Von
|
Wafer
|
Houston Rockets
|
11.0
|
.286
|
|
Kyle
|
Weaver
|
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
10.2
|
.227
|
|
Mickael
|
Pietrus
|
Orlando Magic
|
9.5
|
.182
|
|
Willie
|
Green
|
Philadelphia Seventy Sixers
|
7.9
|
.096
|
|
Javaris
|
Crittenton
|
Washington Wizards
|
8.9
|
.150
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brandon
|
Rush
|
Indiana Pacers
|
6.9
|
.059
|
|
J.J.
|
Redick
|
Orlando Magic
|
8.0
|
.101
|
|
Arron
|
Afflalo
|
Detroit Pistons
|
7.1
|
.065
|
Guard/Forward Combos
Most of these guys are bench players:
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Adj PP48
|
Winning Percentage
|
|
Brandon
|
Roy
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
21.4
|
.852
|
|
Andre
|
Iguodala
|
Philadelphia Seventy Sixers
|
17.8
|
.734
|
|
Mike
|
Miller
|
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
15.8
|
.634
|
|
John
|
Salmons
|
Chicago Bulls
|
13.9
|
.505
|
|
Ron
|
Artest
|
Houston Rockets
|
13.0
|
.437
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kelenna
|
Azubuike
|
Golden State Warriors
|
12.3
|
.390
|
|
Josh
|
Howard
|
Dallas Mavericks
|
12.8
|
.426
|
|
Rasual
|
Butler
|
New Orleans Hornets
|
9.9
|
.212
|
|
Francisco
|
Garcia
|
Sacramento Kings
|
11.5
|
.326
|
|
Michael
|
Finley
|
San Antonio Spurs
|
10.5
|
.249
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kyle
|
Korver
|
Utah Jazz
|
11.3
|
.311
|
|
Wally
|
Szczerbiak
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
12.2
|
.382
|
|
Anthony
|
Morrow
|
Golden State Warriors
|
11.9
|
.359
|
|
Maurice
|
Evans
|
Atlanta Hawks
|
9.9
|
.212
|
|
Joey
|
Graham
|
Toronto Raptors
|
10.6
|
.259
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quentin
|
Richardson
|
New Yorks Knicks
|
9.5
|
.182
|
|
Dahntay
|
Jones
|
Denver Nuggets
|
7.3
|
.074
|
|
Bruce
|
Bowen
|
San Antonio Spurs
|
6.1
|
.037
|
|
Aleksandar
|
Pavlovic
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
6.2
|
.039
|
|
Jason
|
Kapono
|
Toronto Raptors
|
5.5
|
.025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Antoine
|
Wright
|
Dallas Mavericks
|
5.6
|
.027
|
|
Quinton
|
Ross
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
5.7
|
.028
|
Small Forwards
LeBron’s not really a “small” forward, of course, but he plays out front on offense. He’s almost playing point guard half the time. Here we have another discrepancy from the common rankings. My system is not hugely impressed with Carmelo Anthony, although it does see him as an above-average NBA player:
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Adj PP48
|
Winning Percentage
|
|
LeBron
|
James
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
31.9
|
.966
|
|
Dwyane
|
Wade
|
Miami Heat
|
27.1
|
.937
|
|
Kevin
|
Durant
|
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
18.5
|
.764
|
|
Paul
|
Pierce
|
Celtics
|
16.4
|
.665
|
|
Rashard
|
Lewis
|
Orlando Magic
|
16.0
|
.643
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tayshaun
|
Prince
|
Detroit Pistons
|
14.6
|
.553
|
|
Caron
|
Butler
|
Washington Wizards
|
15.3
|
.599
|
|
Carmelo
|
Anthony
|
Denver Nuggets
|
15.1
|
.586
|
|
Trevor
|
Ariza
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
16.1
|
.649
|
|
Richard
|
Jefferson
|
Milwaukee Bucks
|
12.4
|
.392
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jeff
|
Green
|
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
12.4
|
.396
|
|
Al
|
Harrington
|
New Yorks Knicks
|
12.4
|
.393
|
|
Dominic
|
McGuire
|
Washington Wizards
|
13.3
|
.462
|
|
Shane
|
Battier
|
Houston Rockets
|
12.8
|
.422
|
|
Wilson
|
Chandler
|
New Yorks Knicks
|
10.4
|
.244
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
James
|
Posey
|
New Orleans Hornets
|
11.3
|
.306
|
|
Ryan
|
Gomes
|
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
9.8
|
.200
|
|
Corey
|
Maggette
|
Golden State Warriors
|
12.8
|
.425
|
|
Matt
|
Barnes
|
Phoenix Suns
|
10.9
|
.281
|
|
Peja
|
Stojakovic
|
New Orleans Hornets
|
10.6
|
.260
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bobby
|
Simmons
|
New Jersey Nets
|
11.7
|
.338
|
|
Linas
|
Kleiza
|
Denver Nuggets
|
11.1
|
.296
|
|
Nicolas
|
Batum
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
12.6
|
.414
|
|
Ryan
|
Anderson
|
New Jersey Nets
|
12.8
|
.425
|
|
Jarvis
|
Hayes
|
New Jersey Nets
|
10.1
|
.222
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C.J.
|
Miles
|
Utah Jazz
|
9.5
|
.184
|
|
Luke
|
Walton
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
10.8
|
.271
|
|
Nick
|
Young
|
Washington Wizards
|
7.7
|
.088
|
|
Rodney
|
Carney
|
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
8.9
|
.146
|
|
Desmond
|
Mason
|
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
4.8
|
.015
|
I rated the players, by the way, on “adjusted Ponts per 48 minutes, minus 5.0, times minutes played.” I think Desmond Mason was the only player in the league to get a negative ranking in 1,000 minutes played. I tried to rate everybody who played 1,000 minutes, although I may have missed somebody who was traded in mid-season and had 1,000 minutes combined, but not 1,000 with one team.
Swing Forwards
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Adj PP48
|
Winning Percentage
|
|
Antawn
|
Jamison
|
Washington Wizards
|
18.5
|
.763
|
|
Danny
|
Granger
|
Indiana Pacers
|
17.0
|
.698
|
|
Thaddeus
|
Young
|
Philadelphia Seventy Sixers
|
14.0
|
.515
|
|
Marvin
|
Williams
|
Atlanta Hawks
|
16.1
|
.647
|
|
Boris
|
Diaw
|
Charlotte Bobcats
|
15.0
|
.583
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rudy
|
Gay
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
11.7
|
.342
|
|
Luol
|
Deng
|
Chicago Bulls
|
14.1
|
.521
|
|
Yi
|
Jianlian
|
New Jersey Nets
|
9.4
|
.180
|
|
Trenton
|
Hassell
|
New Jersey Nets
|
7.5
|
.081
|
Power Forwards
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Adj PP48
|
Winning Percentage
|
|
Tim
|
Duncan
|
San Antonio Spurs
|
25.7
|
.923
|
|
Chris
|
Bosh
|
Toronto Raptors
|
21.6
|
.857
|
|
Gerald
|
Wallace
|
Charlotte Bobcats
|
22.1
|
.868
|
|
Kevin
|
Garnett
|
Boston Celtics
|
27.1
|
.937
|
|
David
|
West
|
New Orleans Hornets
|
18.0
|
.744
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LaMarcus
|
Aldridge
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
17.7
|
.731
|
|
Paul
|
Millsap
|
Utah Jazz
|
20.3
|
.824
|
|
Lamar
|
Odom
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
18.0
|
.742
|
|
Josh
|
Smith
|
Atlanta Hawks
|
16.4
|
.668
|
|
Charlie
|
Villanueva
|
Milwaukee Bucks
|
17.1
|
.702
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Grant
|
Hill
|
Phoenix Suns
|
14.8
|
.572
|
|
Hedo
|
Turkoglu
|
Orlando Magic
|
13.1
|
.448
|
|
Hakim
|
Warrick
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
15.9
|
.637
|
|
Andrei
|
Kirilenko
|
Utah Jazz
|
16.7
|
.683
|
|
Carl
|
Landry
|
Houston Rockets
|
19.3
|
.793
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Luc
|
Mbah a Moute
|
Milwaukee Bucks
|
14.8
|
.569
|
|
Kenyon
|
Martin
|
Denver Nuggets
|
14.7
|
.562
|
|
Michael
|
Beasley
|
Miami Heat
|
14.8
|
.570
|
|
Brandon
|
Bass
|
Dallas Mavericks
|
15.5
|
.612
|
|
Carlos
|
Boozer
|
Utah Jazz
|
18.6
|
.767
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Travis
|
Outlaw
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
12.2
|
.378
|
|
Jason
|
Maxiell
|
Detroit Pistons
|
16.4
|
.664
|
|
Leon
|
Powe
|
Boston Celtics
|
17.9
|
.741
|
|
Craig
|
Smith
|
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
14.8
|
.567
|
|
Anthony
|
Randolph
|
Golden State Warriors
|
16.4
|
.666
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Al
|
Thornton
|
Los Angeles Clippers
|
8.8
|
.144
|
|
Reggie
|
Evans
|
Philadelphia Seventy Sixers
|
12.6
|
.406
|
|
Big Baby
|
Davis
|
Boston Celtics
|
10.2
|
.229
|
|
Louis
|
Amundson
|
Phoenix Suns
|
12.0
|
.367
|
|
Jared
|
Jeffries
|
New Yorks Knicks
|
8.3
|
.117
|
Forward/Centers
And here we have another hidden star, another player who appears by our method to be highly effective although he doesn’t have a big reputation. Chris Anderson of Denver is a 6-10, tattoo-covered Scott Pollard type from a small college in Texas who doesn’t start for the Nuggets, but hits 55% of his shots from the field and is one of the league’s best shot blockers. He was with the Nuggets years ago but wasn’t nearly so effective then. Apparently George Karl is bringing out the best in him.
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Adj PP48
|
Winning Percentage
|
|
Pau
|
Gasol
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
23.7
|
.896
|
|
David
|
Lee
|
New Yorks Knicks
|
22.2
|
.869
|
|
Troy
|
Murphy
|
Indiana Pacers
|
22.2
|
.869
|
|
Marcus
|
Camby
|
Los Angeles Clippers
|
24.8
|
.913
|
|
Luis
|
Scola
|
Houston Rockets
|
20.3
|
.825
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Al
|
Horford
|
Atlanta Hawks
|
21.0
|
.843
|
|
Antonio
|
McDyess
|
Detroit Pistons
|
21.6
|
.858
|
|
Anderson
|
Varejao
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
18.3
|
.754
|
|
Kevin
|
Love
|
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
19.8
|
.808
|
|
Joakim
|
Noah
|
Chicago Bulls
|
20.4
|
.827
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Udonis
|
Haslem
|
Miami Heat
|
15.8
|
.632
|
|
Amar'e
|
Stoudemire
|
Phoenix Suns
|
18.0
|
.743
|
|
Rasheed
|
Wallace
|
Detroit Pistons
|
16.8
|
.689
|
|
Chris
|
Andersen
|
Denver Nuggets
|
22.2
|
.870
|
|
Tyrus
|
Thomas
|
Chicago Bulls
|
16.3
|
.660
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nick
|
Collison
|
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
18.1
|
.746
|
|
Matt
|
Bonner
|
San Antonio Spurs
|
16.8
|
.689
|
|
Ronny
|
Turiaf
|
Golden State Warriors
|
16.3
|
.659
|
|
Kurt
|
Thomas
|
San Antonio Spurs
|
18.3
|
.756
|
|
Jason
|
Thompson
|
Sacramento Kings
|
13.1
|
.447
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zach
|
Randolph
|
Los Angeles Clippers
|
17.8
|
.736
|
|
Ben
|
Wallace
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
17.9
|
.739
|
|
Andrea
|
Bargnani
|
Toronto Raptors
|
11.8
|
.346
|
|
Spencer
|
Hawes
|
Sacramento Kings
|
12.3
|
.386
|
|
Marreese
|
Speights
|
Philadelphia Seventy Sixers
|
17.3
|
.712
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zaza
|
Pachulia
|
Atlanta Hawks
|
15.1
|
.590
|
|
Stephen
|
Jackson
|
Golden State Warriors
|
11.4
|
.315
|
|
Darius
|
Songaila
|
Washington Wizards
|
13.1
|
.451
|
|
JaVale
|
McGee
|
Washington Wizards
|
15.4
|
.606
|
|
Darrell
|
Arthur
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
12.8
|
.425
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tony
|
Battie
|
Orlando Magic
|
14.0
|
.513
|
|
Ime
|
Udoka
|
San Antonio Spurs
|
9.7
|
.196
|
|
Hilton
|
Armstrong
|
New Orleans Hornets
|
9.0
|
.151
|
True Centers
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Adj PP48
|
Winning Percentage
|
|
Dwight
|
Howard
|
Orlando Magic
|
29.5
|
.954
|
|
Yao
|
Ming
|
Houston Rockets
|
24.1
|
.903
|
|
Dirk
|
Nowitzki
|
Dallas Mavericks
|
21.0
|
.843
|
|
Emeka
|
Okafor
|
Charlotte Bobcats
|
22.2
|
.870
|
|
|
Nenê
|
Denver Nuggets
|
21.3
|
.849
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shaquille
|
O'Neal
|
Phoenix Suns
|
20.4
|
.827
|
|
Brook
|
Lopez
|
New Jersey Nets
|
18.6
|
.769
|
|
Joel
|
Przybilla
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
22.2
|
.870
|
|
Marc
|
Gasol
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
18.2
|
.751
|
|
Al
|
Jefferson
|
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
22.7
|
.880
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Andris
|
Biedrins
|
Golden State Warriors
|
22.2
|
.870
|
|
Mehmet
|
Okur
|
Utah Jazz
|
17.8
|
.736
|
|
Erick
|
Dampier
|
Dallas Mavericks
|
19.2
|
.790
|
|
Kendrick
|
Perkins
|
Boston Celtics
|
16.4
|
.664
|
|
Samuel
|
Dalembert
|
Philadelphia Seventy Sixers
|
17.5
|
.723
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zydrunas
|
Ilgauskas
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
18.4
|
.761
|
|
Andrew
|
Bynum
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
20.1
|
.820
|
|
Jeff
|
Foster
|
Indiana Pacers
|
15.2
|
.595
|
|
Greg
|
Oden
|
Portland Trail Blazers
|
18.5
|
.765
|
|
Andrew
|
Bogut
|
Milwaukee Bucks
|
20.4
|
.828
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tyson
|
Chandler
|
New Orleans Hornets
|
15.2
|
.594
|
|
Andray
|
Blatche
|
Washington Wizards
|
12.9
|
.436
|
|
Darko
|
Milicic
|
Memphis Grizzlies
|
15.5
|
.616
|
|
Rasho
|
Nesterovic
|
Indiana Pacers
|
13.5
|
.479
|
|
Nenad
|
Krstic
|
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
13.5
|
.479
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy
|
Hibbert
|
Indiana Pacers
|
12.5
|
.404
|
|
Joel
|
Anthony
|
Miami Heat
|
10.8
|
.273
|
So here’s my NBA All-Star team, entirely un-influenced by media hype, although strangely congruent with its recommendations:
Point Guard Chris Paul
Off Guard Kobe
Small Forward LeBron
Power Forward Tim Duncan
Center Dwight Howard
Bench: Devin Harris, Brandon Roy, Antawn Jamison and Pao Gasol.
If anyone knows a rational way to improve the rankings of guards versus Bigs, speak up.