In 2005 Bobby Abreu was selected to be the starting rightfielder for the National League All-Star team. He was having a terrific season: over the first half he had18 home runs and 21 stolen bases, along with a robust .307/.428/.526 batting line.
Abreu was also asked to participate in the Home Run Derby at that year’s All-Star game, to be hosted in the new Comerica Park, in Detroit. Abreu, who had never before participated in an All-Star Home Run Derby, put on a tremendous show. In the first round alone, the Philly outfielder hit 24 home runs, a new record (since eclipsed by Josh Hamilton last year). In the subsequent rounds, Abreu added 17 more bombs, for a record forty-one Derby homers.
It was a remarkable performance which, coupled with his eighteen homers in the season’s first half, suggested that Abreu was going to join the ranks of the very best power hitters in the game.
He did not join those ranks. Over the second half of the season Abreu hit just six more homers, giving him a total of just twenty-four home runs on the season. In fact, everything dropped during the second half: Abreu’s batting line went from .307/.428/.526 to a more pedestrian .260/.376/.411. Even his steals went from 21 to 10.
So what happened?
At the time, more than a few sportswriters linked his performance at the All-Star break to his second-half decline. It makes an intuitive kind of sense: if you’re struck by lightning and then discover that you can play the piano like a maestro, you’d tend to think one caused the other.
As to why participating in the Home Run Derby would hurt Abreu’s performance, two possibilities were suggested. The more charitable ‘why’ suggests that Abreu altered his swing to try to win the Derby, and then found himself out of whack when the season started back up. The less charitable ‘why’ hinted that Abreu was a victim of his own success: in hitting so many homers during the Derby, Abreu came to believe that he was a home run hitter, and tried to adjust his approach to reflect that new belief.
Derby Trends
I’m not interested in whether or not Bobby Abreu became a changed man during the 2005 Derby. What I am interested in is whether there are any trends for players who participate in the event. Do hitters tend to go into a tailspin, as Abreu famously did in 2005?
To start with, I wanted to include only those players who were actual ‘participants’ in the Derby. As you probably know, many of the participants end up hitting one or two home runs, which means they swing a bat eleven or twelve times. To me, that isn’t enough swings to explain a second-half swoon or spike.
So I’ve included only players who hit twelve or more Derby homers, which requires at least thirty-two swings during the event. I’ve also limited the pool to participants in this decade. That gives us thirty seasons to look at:
Name
|
Year
|
Derby HR's
|
Name
|
Year
|
Derby HR's
|
Abreu
|
2005
|
41
|
Rios
|
2007
|
19
|
J. Hamilton
|
2008
|
35
|
Sosa
|
2002
|
18
|
Tejada
|
2004
|
27
|
Guerrero
|
2007
|
17
|
Pujols
|
2003
|
26
|
L. Gonzalez
|
2001
|
16
|
Sosa
|
2000
|
26
|
M. Cabrera
|
2006
|
15
|
Giambi
|
2002
|
24
|
Lee
|
2005
|
15
|
Giambi
|
2003
|
23
|
Berkman
|
2008
|
14
|
R. Howard
|
2006
|
23
|
Braun
|
2008
|
14
|
G. Anderson
|
2003
|
22
|
Palmeiro
|
2004
|
14
|
Wright
|
2006
|
22
|
Holliday
|
2007
|
13
|
Morneau
|
2008
|
22
|
Pujols
|
2007
|
13
|
Berkman
|
2004
|
21
|
Ortiz
|
2006
|
13
|
I. Rodriguez
|
2005
|
20
|
Sosa
|
2001
|
13
|
Ortiz
|
2005
|
20
|
Konerko
|
2002
|
12
|
Giambi
|
2001
|
20
|
Everett
|
2000
|
12
|
Swooners, Spikers, and Stay-Neutrals
I looked at the pre- and post-All-Star break totals for each player. Then I sorted the players into three categories. The Swooners are players who saw their OPS drop by 100 or more points after participating in the All-Star Home Run derby. The Spikers are those players who saw their performance improve by 100 or more points. The Stay-Neutrals are those players whose OPS totals didn’t one hundred points either way.
We’ll start with the Stay-Neutrals:
|
Pre-AS
|
|
|
Post-AS
|
|
|
|
Name
|
BA
|
HR
|
OPS
|
BA
|
HR
|
OPS
|
OPS Diff.
|
Morneau, '08
|
.323
|
14
|
.903
|
.267
|
9
|
.831
|
-72
|
Giambi, '03
|
.267
|
26
|
.966
|
.226
|
15
|
.898
|
-68
|
Hamilton, '08
|
.310
|
21
|
.919
|
.296
|
11
|
.874
|
-45
|
Rios, '07
|
.294
|
17
|
.870
|
.300
|
7
|
.831
|
-39
|
Pujols, '03
|
.368
|
27
|
1.121
|
.348
|
16
|
1.084
|
-37
|
Guerrero, '07
|
.325
|
14
|
.962
|
.323
|
13
|
.935
|
-27
|
Cabrera, '06
|
.334
|
15
|
.998
|
.343
|
11
|
.998
|
0
|
Giambi, '02
|
.318
|
22
|
1.032
|
.309
|
19
|
1.035
|
3
|
Berkman '04
|
.299
|
16
|
1.008
|
.335
|
14
|
1.024
|
16
|
Braun, '08
|
.286
|
23
|
.873
|
.282
|
14
|
.911
|
38
|
Ortiz, '05
|
.314
|
21
|
.982
|
.282
|
26
|
1.024
|
42
|
Palmeiro, 04
|
.247
|
13
|
.771
|
.271
|
10
|
.825
|
54
|
Tejada, '04
|
.311
|
15
|
.863
|
.311
|
19
|
.929
|
66
|
Thirteen of the thirty players fall into the Stay-Neutral camp. Incredibly, exactly six of the Stay-Neutrals saw a slight uptick in OPS, while six saw a slight drop. Miguel Cabrera had the exact same OPS during both halves of his 2006 campaign.
Interestingly, while the OPS of these players did not change markedly, eleven of the thirteen players listed here had fewer home runs during the second half. In total, the Stay-Neutrals had 244 first-half homers, but only 184 during the second-half.
Part of that stems from the fact that the All-Star game doesn’t take place at the exact midpoint in the season, but a few games after the midpoint. Still: there is a 25% decrease in homeruns during the second half, for the Stay-Neutrals.
How about the Spikers? How do they look?
|
Pre-AS
|
|
|
Post-AS
|
|
|
|
Name
|
BA
|
HR
|
OPS
|
BA
|
HR
|
OPS
|
OPS Diff.
|
Howard ' 06
|
.278
|
28
|
.923
|
.355
|
30
|
1.259
|
336
|
Sosa, '00
|
.305
|
23
|
.962
|
.338
|
27
|
1.138
|
176
|
Pujols, '07
|
.310
|
16
|
.927
|
.349
|
16
|
1.081
|
154
|
Ortiz, '06
|
.278
|
31
|
.996
|
.299
|
23
|
1.121
|
125
|
Giambi, '01
|
.322
|
19
|
1.082
|
.367
|
19
|
1.202
|
120
|
Holliday, '07
|
.341
|
15
|
.964
|
.338
|
21
|
1.073
|
109
|
Sosa, '01
|
.312
|
29
|
1.125
|
.344
|
35
|
1.225
|
100
|
Seven players. Or, six players, with Sosa showing up twice. Boy, that Sosa was some hitter: in the two years that qualify as spike years, his pre-All-Star OPS, the total he improved upon by at least 100 points, was .962 and 1.125.
Ryan Howard, in 2006, showed the most dramatic swing of any player who participated (for more than thirty swings) in the All-Star Home Run Derby. His OPS improved by a stunning 336 points.
Of the seven Spikers, four improved their home run totals after playing in the Derby. As a group, they improved by ten homers during the second-half, 161 to 171.
Onto the Swooners:
|
Pre-AS
|
|
|
Post-AS
|
|
|
|
Name
|
BA
|
HR
|
OPS
|
BA
|
HR
|
OPS
|
OPS Diff.
|
Berkman, '08
|
.347
|
22
|
1.069
|
.259
|
7
|
.821
|
-248
|
Everett, '00
|
.329
|
24
|
1.050
|
.261
|
10
|
.831
|
-219
|
Konerko, '02
|
.328
|
20
|
.949
|
.270
|
7
|
.734
|
-215
|
I. Rodrgz, '05
|
.369
|
12
|
.975
|
.284
|
7
|
.774
|
-201
|
Abreu, '05
|
.307
|
18
|
.955
|
.260
|
6
|
.787
|
-168
|
L. Gonzlz, '01
|
.355
|
35
|
1.189
|
.290
|
22
|
1.032
|
-157
|
Sosa, '02
|
.307
|
28
|
1.059
|
.264
|
21
|
.911
|
-148
|
G. Andrsn, '03
|
.316
|
22
|
.943
|
.313
|
7
|
.807
|
-136
|
Wright, '06
|
.316
|
20
|
.961
|
.305
|
6
|
.844
|
-117
|
Lee, '05
|
.268
|
22
|
.864
|
.262
|
10
|
.747
|
-117
|
Ten of the thirty players involved suffered a second-half swoon. Interestingly, Abreu’s 2005 collapse wasn’t close to being the worst. That honor goes to Lance Berkman, who lost nearly two-hundred and fifty points in OPS during the second half of last season.
These guys lost a lot of home runs over the second-half of the season, going from 223 during the first half to 103 over the second half. Let’s table those numbers:
|
Pre-AS Homers
|
Post-AS Homers
|
Spikers
|
161
|
171
|
Swooners
|
223
|
103
|
Stay-Neutrals
|
244
|
184
|
Totals
|
628
|
458
|
Even taking into account the greater number of games played in the season’s first-half, it’s clear that Derby participants, as a whole, tend to hit fewer home runs during the second half of the season.
Spikers and Swooners
Let’s ignore the Stay-Neutrals, and look at just the Spikers and Swooners. A side-by-side list:
Swooners
|
Spikers
|
Lance Berkman
|
Ryan Howard
|
David Wright
|
Sammy Sosa
|
Bobby Abreu
|
Albert Pujols
|
Carl Everett
|
David Ortiz
|
Paul Konerko
|
Jason Giambi
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
Matt Holliday
|
Luis Gonzalez
|
|
Garrett Anderson
|
|
Carlos Lee
|
|
(I should note that Sammy Sosa actually appears on both lists: he’s a Spiker twice and a Swooner once. For that I gave him to the Spikers.)
What do you notice about the two groups? Look at them for a minute. What jumps out at you?
Exactly: the Spikers are comprised almost entirely of slow 1B/DH/Corner OF types. They are your traditional sluggers: the big boppers of the league. The only Spiker with any kind of speed is Matt Holliday. The only great defensive player is Pujols, a first baseman.
Meanwhile, the Swooners, as a group, have much broader skill sets. You have a catcher, a third baseman, and three centerfielders. You have six players who can run fast.
And to be frank, some of the Swooners don’t belong here. What the heck was Ivan Rodriguez doing in a Homerun Derby? Or Abreu? Or Everett? Or Garrett Anderson? Even David Wright is suspect: he’s a fine hitter, but he’s no masher.
But all of the Spikers belong: all of them are big home run hitters.
Some (Thinly Drawn) Conclusions
Take two players from this year’s All-Star game. Let’s go with two of my favorite players: Joe Mauer and Carlos Pena.
The belief that the Home Run Derby negatively effect players stems from the notion that a player’s ordinary routine is disrupted. A player participating in the Derby changes his approach, tries to swing for the fences, and suffers as a result.
Between Carlos Pena and Joe Mauer, which player is more out of his element in a Home Run Derby? Which player’s approach is changed more dramatically by participating in the event?
Joe Mauer, of course. Mauer is far more out of his element. Carlos Pena, who is a terrific hitter, probably treats most rounds of batting practice as a home run hitting contests. That isn’t a criticism of Pena: it’s just an statement about the kind of hitter he is.
Before writing this essay, I thought I'd find little evidence that the Home Run Derby affected players, negatively or positively. Just my hunch, but I figured most of the worry about the Derby was a bunch of hogwash.
I’m still not convinced of anything. But I think it’s very revealing that the players who tend to swoon after participating in the Home Run Derby are the guys who probably don’t belong in the Derby to begin with. Meanwhile, the guys who have terrific seasons after the Derby are guys who make a living jacking baseballs to the stratosphere: those sluggardly sluggers.
Intuitively that makes a whole lot of sense. A player like Ryan Howard or Carlos Pena isn’t doing anything markedly different in participating in the Derby. But guys like Mauer and Ivan Rodriguez and David Wright: they are doing something out of their routine. And in recent years those kinds of players have often suffered for it.
We have eight players in the Derby this year. I think it’s safe to say that Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, and Adrian Gonzalez will do just fine.
But I’d worry about Mauer, Nelson Cruz, and Brandon Inge. None of those three players are traditional sluggers. All three of them are having uncharacteristic years, seasons that seem out of line with their normal levels. In participating in the Derby, they could very well be risking their seasons for a silly exhibition.
I wouldn’t.
(Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City. He welcomes comments, questions, and plans that outline ways to make sure Joe Mauer can’t participate in the Homerun Derby here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com).