Hey Bill:
In the past (maybe in the Historical Abstract?) you did some work on developing a formula that would be indicative of quality of play in the major leagues over time. This was part of a project to determine whether or not the quality of play in MLB was improving over time (it was). I associate that trend with a narrowing of the gap between the best and worst players and the average player, and I would like to know whether or not such a narrowing has actually occurred. So here's my question: Over time, has the gap between the best players (defined as the top 10%) and worst players (defined as bottom 10%) narrowed in recent years? Is there a way to measure this?
Evan
I’m not sure what work of mine you’re referring to, but the gap between the best players in baseball and the worst has certainly narrowed over time, and this fact was central to the great Paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould’s assertion that the quality of play had improved over time and was continuing to improve. However, as you asked the question, I realized I couldn’t cite any recent data on the issue, so I did a little research.
I went into Retrosheet, and got the performance on each team by position and by batting order position. . . for example, the St. Louis Cardinal Leadoff men in 2008 hit .289 with 10 homers, 58 RBI, .733 OPS, whereas in 1954 they hit .298 with 15 homers, 84 RBI, .803 OPS.
Team
|
Year
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
Cardinals
|
1954
|
159
|
664
|
109
|
198
|
28
|
10
|
15
|
84
|
69
|
.298
|
.365
|
.438
|
.803
|
Cardinals
|
2008
|
205
|
709
|
111
|
205
|
28
|
6
|
10
|
58
|
59
|
.289
|
.345
|
.388
|
.733
|
75 strikeouts in 1954, 91 in 2008, 15 stolen bases in 1954, 16 in 2008; I had to cut some of the data to make it fit here. The Cardinals primarily leadoff men in 1954 was center fielder Wally Moon, whereas in 2008 it was left fielder Skip Schumaker.
New York Yankee Left Fielders in 2008 hit .284 with 18 homers, 92 RBI, .776 OPS, whereas in 1954 they hit .258 with 11 homers, 76 RBI, but 89 walks, .731 OPS:
Team
|
Year
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
Yankees
|
1954
|
178
|
565
|
78
|
146
|
21
|
6
|
11
|
76
|
89
|
.258
|
.356
|
.375
|
.731
|
Yankees
|
2008
|
188
|
644
|
83
|
183
|
32
|
3
|
18
|
92
|
60
|
.284
|
.349
|
.427
|
.776
|
70 Strikeouts in 1954, 108 in 2008, 7 stolen bases in 1954, 17 in 2008. In 1954 that was primarily Gene Woodling and Irv Noren, whereas in 2008 it was Johnny Damon and Xavier Nady.
There were 128 “positions” in 1954, not including pitchers and not including 9th-place hitters; that’s 16 X 8. There were 254 positions in 2008, not including pitchers and not including 9th-place hitters in the National League (30 X 8, plus 14 for the Designated Hitters.) Studying the data in this way contains the otherwise perplexing problem of figuring norms and standard deviations for players playing all different numbers of games and at bats.
With the exception of a huge jump in strikeouts, the average performance of a position has not changed all that much from 1954 to 2008. This was the average of the 128 batting order positions in 1954 and in 2008:
Year
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
GDP
|
SB
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
1954
|
591
|
79
|
160
|
25
|
6
|
15
|
74
|
66
|
63
|
14
|
5
|
.270
|
.343
|
.407
|
.751
|
2008
|
622
|
86
|
167
|
34
|
3
|
19
|
82
|
62
|
119
|
15
|
11
|
.267
|
.337
|
.424
|
.761
|
Nor has the performance changed very much, of course, of an average player if figured by position:
Year
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
GDP
|
SB
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
1954
|
582
|
77
|
158
|
25
|
6
|
14
|
72
|
64
|
62
|
14
|
5
|
.270
|
.343
|
.407
|
.750
|
2008
|
615
|
84
|
165
|
34
|
3
|
19
|
81
|
61
|
116
|
15
|
11
|
.268
|
.337
|
.425
|
.763
|
The numbers for each year compared to itself are not quite identical because we eliminated 9th-place hitters from the one part of the study and pitchers and pinch hitters and pinch runners from the other part. These are largely the same groups but not exactly the same groups; it makes some little difference which approach one takes.
In 1954 these were the leaders and lasters by field position:
At Bats 687, Chicago Cubs leadoff hitters (Bob Talbot)
510, Cincinnati Reds 8th place hitters
  (Their catchers—Andy Seminick and Ed Bailey)
Runs 137, New York Yankees 3rd place hitters (Mickey Mantle)
  34, Washington Senators 7th place hitters (Ed Fitzgerald)
Hits 206, Brooklyn Dodgers 3rd place hitters (Duke Snider)
117, Cincinnati Reds 8th place hitters (Seminick and Bailey)
Doubles 44, St. Louis Cardinals 3rd place hitters (Stan Musial)
12, Cincinnati and Washington 8th place hitters
  Andy Seminick and Ed Bailey for Cincinnati
Wayne Terwilliger for Washington
Triples 16, Chicago White Sox 3rd place hitters (Minnie Minoso)
  0, Philadelphia As leadoff hitters (Spook Jacobs)
Home Runs 46, Cincinnati Reds cleanup Hitters (Ted Kluszewski)
0, Philadelphia A’s leadoff hitters (Spook Jacobs)
RBI 140, Cincinnati Reds cleanup hitters (Ted Kluszewski)
31, Boston Red Sox leadoff hitters (Billy Goodman)
Walks 136, Washington Senators leadoff men (Ed Yost)
  30, New York Giants #2 hitters (Alvin Dark)
Strikeouts 107, New York Yankees 3rd place hitters (Mickey Mantle)
  15, Chicago White Sox #2 hitters (Nellie Fox)
Stolen Bases 34, Milwaukee Braves leadoff hitters (Bill Bruton)
0, Four-Way tie
B Average .337, Brooklyn Dodgers 3rd place hitters (Duke Snider)
.211, Pittsburgh Pirates leadoff hitters (Curt Roberts & Gair Allie)
On Base % .418, Brooklyn Dodgers 3rd place hitters (Duke Snider)
.286, Philadelphia A’s #7 hitters (Joe DeMaestri)
Slugging % .637, Brooklyn Dodgers 3rd place hitters (Duke Snider)
  .265, Philadelphia A’s leadoff hitters (Spook Jacobs)
OPS 1.055, Brooklyn Dodgers 3rd place hitters (Duke Snider)
  .559, Philadelphia A’s leadoff hitters (Spook Jacobs)
That’s right; Philadelphia A’s leadoff men were the only position in the majors not to hit any triples and also the only ones not to hit any homers. Their primary leadoff man was Spook Jacobs, who actually wasn’t all that bad, but Jacobs hit better while in the #2 spot than leading off, and the A’s alternative leadoff hitter was Jacobs’ double play partner, Joe DeMaestri, who usually batted seventh but didn’t hit no matter where you put him.
Washington leadoff men (Yost) led the majors in walks drawn by 22, over Red Sox left fielders. This is the same data, but broken down by fielding position, rather than batting order position:
At Bats 662, Detroit Tigers shortstops (Harvey Kuenn)
  516, Chicago Cubs catchers (Joe Garagiola)
Runs 132, New York Yankees center fielders (Mickey Mantle)
36, Baltimore Orioles catchers (Clint Courtney)
Hits 214, New York Giants right fielders (Don Mueller)
102, New York Yankees shortstops (Phil Rizzuto)
Doubles 41, St. Louis Cardinals right fielders (Stan Musial)
  11, Cincinnati Reds catchers (Andy Seminick and Ed Bailey)
Triples 15, Washington Senators first basemen (Mickey Vernon)
  1, Three Tied
Home Runs 49, Cincinnati Reds first basemen (Ted Kluszewski)
  0, Philadelphia A’s second basemen (Spook Jacobs) and
  Cincinnati Reds second basemen (Johnny Temple)
RBI 143, Cincinnati Reds first basemen (Ted Kluszewski)
  29, New York Yankees shortstops (Phil Rizzuto)
Walks 151, Boston Red Sox left fielders (Ted Williams)
23, New York Giants right fielders (Don Mueller)
Strikeouts 107, New York Yankees 3rd place hitters (Mickey Mantle)
13, Chicago White Sox #2 hitters (Nellie Fox)
Stolen Bases 34, Milwaukee Brave leadoff hitters (Bill Bruton)
  0, Four-Way tie
B Average .337, Brooklyn Dodgers 3rd place hitters (Duke Snider)
  .211, Pittsburgh Pirates leadoff hitters (Curt Roberts & Gair Allie)
On Base % .418, Brooklyn Dodgers 3rd place hitters (Duke Snider)
  .286, Philadelphia A’s #7 hitters (Joe DeMaestri)
Slugging % .637, Brooklyn Dodgers 3rd place hitters (Duke Snider)
  .265, Philadelphia A’s leadoff hitters (Spook Jacobs)
OPS 1.066, Brooklyn Dodgers center fielders (Duke Snider)
1.062 New York Giants center fielders (Willie Mays)
  .573 New York Yankees shortstops (Phil Rizzuto)
I don’t know why I love that stuff. Here’s the same data for 2008:
At Bats 709, St. Louis Cardinals leadoff men (Skip Schumaker)
532, Arizona Diamondbacks 8th hitters (No regular or near-regular)
Runs 135, Florida Marlins leadoff hitters (Hanley Ramirez)
41, St. Louis Cardinals 8th place hitters (often the pitcher)
Hits 218, Seattle Mariners leadoff hitters (Ichiro)
114, Houston Astros 8th place hitters
(Brad Ausmus and Humberto Quintero)
Doubles 57, Baltimore Orioles leadoff hitters (Brian Roberts) and
Boston Red Sox #2 hitters (Dustin Pedroia)
17, Kansas City Royals 9th place hitters
  Tony Pena and Joey Gathright
Triples 19, New York Mets leadoff hitters (Jose Reyes)
  0, 23 positions
Home Runs 47, Philadelphia Phillies cleanup hitters (Ryan Howard)
1, Milwaukee Brewers 8th place hitters (Jason Kendall)
RBI 146, Philadelphia Phillies cleanup hitters (Ryan Howard)
  37, Los Angeles Angels leadoff hitters (Chone Figgins)
Walks 115, Tampa Bay Rays 3rd place hitters (Carlos Pena)
18, Seattle Mariners 9th place hitters (Yuniesky Betancourt)
Strikeouts 199, Arizona Diamondbacks 5th place hitters (Mark Reynolds)
56, San Francisco Giants 4th hitters (Bengie Molina)
Stolen Bases 68, Colorado Rockies leadoff hitters (Willy Taveras)
  0, Four Teams with
B Average .342, Atlanta Braves 3rd place hitters (Chipper Jones)
  .195, Washington Nationals 6th place hitters
  (Whoever hit their struggled)
On Base % .437, St. Louis Cardinals 3rd place hitters (Albert Pujols)
  .253, St. Louis Cardinals 8th place hitters (Many pitchers)
 
Slugging % .616, St. Louis Cardinals 3rd place hitters (Albert)
.285, Kansas City Royals 9th place hitters (Tony Pena, Jr.)
OPS 1.053, St. Louis Cardinals 3rd place hitters (Albert Pujols)
.551, St. Louis Cardinals 8th place hitters (Including the pitchers)
I did a thing recently on the doubles record, which has been held for 80 years by Tris Speaker, becoming a more vulnerable record. In 1954 the only two major league positions that accumulated 40 doubles were St. Louis Cardinal third hitters (Stan Musial), and Brooklyn Dodger third place hitters (Duke Snider); the Cardinals got 44 doubles out of that spot, and the Dodgers 40.
In 2008 there were 65 batting order slots that got 40 or more doubles, including five teams that got 40 or more doubles out of their seventh place hitters, and one (Cleveland) that got 40 doubles out of their eighth place hitters. Eight positions in 2008 produced 50 or more doubles, and two had 57. Further, the data will show (later on) that most of the largest relative increases in doubles have come not to the weak hitters, as was stated in a comment posted along with the other article, but among the best hitters. The weak hitters have increased their doubles by 25 to 30%; the good hitters, by 35% and more. On the other hand, in 1954 only one spot failed to produce a triple. In 2008 there were 23 positions that failed to produce a triple.
But it is really kind of amazing how little things have changed in 54 years. Batting averages run from .200 to .340, in 1954 and 2008, home runs from zero to just short of 50, RBI from 30 to 145, on base percentages from .270 to .250 to .450, slugging percentages from just short of .300 to .600, hits from just over a hundred to just over 200. A lot of the standards are about the same. This is the 2008 leaderboard by field position:
At Bats 706, New York Mets shortstops (Jose Reyes)
513, Los Angeles Angels catchers (Napoli and Mathis)
Runs 133, Florida Marlins shortstops (Hanley Ramirez)
  41, Houston Astros catchers (Ausmus and others)
Hits 220, Washington National shortstops (Cristian Guzman)
  105, Houston Astros catchers (Ausmus, Towles and Quintero)
Doubles 56, Orioles and Red Sox second basemen (Roberts and Pedroia)
12, Kansas City Royals center fielders (Joey Gathright)
Triples 19, New York Mets shortstops (Jose Reyes)
0, 24 Tied
Home Runs 48, Philadelphia Phillies first basemen (Ryan Howard)
1, St. Louis Cardinals shortstops (Cesar Izturis) and
San Francisco Giants shortstops (Omar Vizquel)
RBI 146, Philadelphia Phillies first basemen (Ryan Howard)
31, St. Louis Cardinals shortstops (Cesar Izturis)
Walks 111, Tampa Bay Rays first basemen (Carlos Pena)
  24, Four Tied with
Strikeouts 211, Arizona Diamondbacks third basemen (Mark Reynolds)
47, St. Louis Cardinals catchers (Yadier Molina)
Stolen Bases 75, Colorado Rockies center fielders (Willy Taveras)
  0, 24 Tied
B Average .345, Atlanta Braves third basemen (Chipper Jones)
  .201, Houston Astros catchers (Ausmus and company)
On Base % .431, Atlanta Braves third basemen (Chipper Jones)
.259, Baltimore Orioles shortstops
(Juan Castro, Alex Cintron and Freddie Bynum)
Slugging % .588, St. Louis Cardinals first basemen (Albert Pujols)
  .276, Baltimore Orioles shortstops again
OPS 1.016 St. Louis Cardinals first basemen (Albert Pujols)
.535 Baltimore Orioles shortstops
 
OK, all of this (above) is just yard art. The question here is whether the gap between the best hitters and worst hitters has narrowed.
It has.
Let’s do the batting order position chart first. In 1954, the standard deviation of runs scored by batting order position was 22. In 2008, it was 18.
In 1954 the standard deviation of RBI was 25. In 2008 it was 21.
In 1954 the standard deviation of walks was 18. In 2008 it was 16.
In 1954 the standard deviation of batting average was 26 points. In 2008 it was 24 points.
In 1954 the standard deviation of on base percentage was 31 points. In 2008 it was 28 points.
In 1954 the standard deviation of slugging percentage was 67 points. In 2008 it was 59 points.
In 1954 the average OPS was .751, and the standard deviation was .092. In 2008 the average was .761, and the standard deviation was .081.
The differences are slightly larger, for some reason, when we look at the data by field position. In 1954, the standard deviation of runs scored by batting order position was 21. In 2008, it was 17.
In 1954 the standard deviation of RBI was 24. In 2008 it was 20.
In 1954 the standard deviation of walks was 21. In 2008 it was 18.
In 1954 the standard deviation of batting average was 29 points. In 2008 it was 24 points.
In 1954 the standard deviation of on base percentage was 34 points. In 2008 it was 28 points.
In 1954 the standard deviation of slugging percentage was 72 points. In 2008 it was 58
points.
In 1954 the average OPS was .750, and the standard deviation was .099. In 2008 the average was .763, and the standard deviation was .080.
There is no question but that the long process of players converging toward a common level of ability has continued since 1954; however, the differences are not huge.
The reader asked specifically to compare the top 10% to the bottom 10%. When the standard deviation decreases, what that means is that the bottom moves closer to the top. However, answering the question directly, this chart gives the average performance of the top 10% of the hitters in 1954 (13 out of 128) versus the bottom 10%, hitters by batting order position, sorted by OPS:
Year
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SB
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
1954
|
592
|
108
|
182
|
30
|
7
|
31
|
116
|
82
|
6
|
.306
|
.390
|
.538
|
.929
|
2008
|
587
|
57
|
139
|
20
|
4
|
5
|
48
|
55
|
4
|
.237
|
.303
|
.311
|
.615
|
And this chart gives the same data for 2008, top 10% versus bottom 10% (26 out of 254. 25 would be closer to 10%, but 26 out of 254 is much more parallel than 13 out of 129 than is 25 out of 254):
Year
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SB
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
1954
|
624
|
108
|
184
|
41
|
3
|
33
|
110
|
83
|
11
|
.295
|
.381
|
.527
|
.908
|
2008
|
599
|
64
|
139
|
26
|
3
|
8
|
55
|
47
|
12
|
.231
|
.292
|
.324
|
.616
|
The difference between the top 10% and the bottom 10%, if measured by OPS, has shrunk since 1954 from 314 points to 292.
This is the same data, with the players sorted by fielding position:
Year
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SB
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
1954
|
583
|
107
|
184
|
29
|
7
|
32
|
110
|
86
|
6
|
.315
|
.401
|
.556
|
.958
|
2008
|
579
|
58
|
138
|
19
|
5
|
4
|
43
|
48
|
5
|
.237
|
.297
|
.308
|
.605
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1954
|
621
|
106
|
184
|
41
|
3
|
32
|
108
|
80
|
12
|
.296
|
.380
|
.527
|
.908
|
2008
|
596
|
65
|
142
|
25
|
3
|
8
|
54
|
48
|
14
|
.238
|
.299
|
.328
|
.627
|
Sorted by fielding position, in 1954 the 10% best-hitting positions had an OPS 353 points better than the weakest-hitting 10%. By 2008 that gap had narrowed to 281 points. Also note that in the above, there is a 41% increase in doubles by the strongest hitters (from 29 to 41), whereas there is a 32% increase by the weaker hitters (from 19 to 25).
As a sport becomes stronger, there are fewer weak players, and the sport becomes more difficult to dominate. If a football game is won 97-3, what do you think? Is that high school football, or is that the NFL? It’s high school, of course; NFL teams are not that easy to dominate.