Another time,
I devised a left-hander
Even more gifted
Than Whitey Ford: A Dodger.
People were amazed by him.
Once, when he was young,
He refused to pitch on Yom Kippur.
-Robert Pinsky, “The Night Game”
More words of verse have been written about Sandy Koufax than any other baseball player in history. He is the poet’s player; the skinny southpaw with the devastating curve; the Jewish kid who sat out the first game of the 1965 World Series to observe Yom Kippur. The Brooklyn native who went west with Da Bums when O’Malley broke the city’s heart. The great pitcher who suffered his pain in silence. The man who quit at the very peak of his ability.
When people speak about Sandy Koufax as a great pitcher, they are referencing the peak of his abilities: that stretch of years when he dominated the National League, winning three unanimous Cy Young Awards and three Triple Crowns in five seasons, his arm carrying the Los Angeles Dodgers to the World Series in each of those three seasons.
They are not referring to Koufax’s career: Koufax threw 2324 innings over his career: twenty-one pitchers in major league history have thrown twice as many innings, including Don Sutton and Bert Blyleven and Tom Seaver and Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux.
Any argument that Koufax is the Greatest Pitcher of All-Time is, inherently, an argument about his peak ability: Koufax didn’t have the greatest career, but he reached a level of skill unsurpassed in the history of the game. Pitch-for-pitch, he was the greatest ever. If you have to win a game, take Koufax.
But is that correct? Was Koufax’s peak the greatest of all-time?
The greatest peak I’ve ever lived through was the peak years of Pedro Martinez. At one point, Pedro had career numbers that were nearly identical to Koufax’s: at the end of 2003, Pedro was 166-67, with a 2.58 ERA and 2426 strikeouts. In his career, Koufax was 165-87, with a 2.76 ERA and 2396 strikeouts.
Pedro’s career has continued: he is currently enjoying a renaissance with the Philadelphia Phillies, where he is 5-0 this year, with a Pedro-esque 2.87 ERA. Pedro’s career record is now 219-99: he has moved past the likes of Koufax and Dizzy Dean and Addie Joss, and should now be counted among the Hall-of-Fame pitchers who had middle-length careers: Whitey Ford and Catfish Hunter and Carl Hubbell.
But was peak years? How does Pedro’s peak compare with Koufax’s? At their best, who was better?
That’s what this essay is about.
Defining Peak: Four Questions
How’d you define peak?
For Sandy Koufax’s peak, I used 1962-1966, the five consecutive years when he led the NL in ERA. For Pedro Martinez, I used the seven season between 1997-2003.
Why?
Because the innings pitched levels out: in the five Koufax seasons he notched 1377 innings pitched. In the seven Martinez seasons, he notched 1408 innings pitched. That’s the closest to even I could find in matching their peak seasons.
Isn’t that unfair to Koufax? He pitched a lot more innings than Pedro?
Right. But that has more to do with contexts than manliness. Pedro was in the top-ten in innings pitched six time, in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2004. Koufax was in the top-ten in innings pitched four times: 1961, 1963, 1965, and 1966. Pedro was just as hard a worker, considering his contexts, as Koufax was. Pedro didn’t invent the five-man rotation: it seems silly to hold him accountable for it.
The argument that Koufax is greater than Pedro because Koufax threw 300+ innings while Pedro threw 220 is, when carried to a logical conclusion, silly. The best peak, by that logic, would belong to Charley Radbourn and Pud Galvin and John Clarkson and Tommy Bond; the dead-ball guys who threw 500-600 innings each year.
The goal of measuring players of different eras isn’t to remove contexts, not necessarily. We should, however, consider all contexts.
What about Koufax’s 1961 season? Why not include that?
In 1961 Koufax won 18 games, led the league in strikeouts, and had an ERA of 3.52. It was a good year, but it doesn’t fit the context of the next five years. Even considering the change in park effects, it doesn’t fit. He walked 96 batters and had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.5-to-1. It doesn’t fit. It actually hurts Koufax to include it: his ERA and adjusted ERA and WHIP all go up. His winning percentage goes way down (he was 18-13 on the year).
And Pedro misses a few years, too. He was 16-9 in 2004, and won a World Series ring. He was 15-8 with an ERA of 2.82 in 2005. Led the NL in WHIP and had a terrific strikeout-to-walk ratio. We’re not counting it, either. We’re counting the peak years of each pitcher: their seasons of brilliance.
So let’s see how they stack up:
Koufax vs. Martinez
|
W-L
|
IP
|
K
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
K/9
|
K/BB
|
WHIP
|
Koufax
|
111-34
|
1377
|
1444
|
2.07
|
167
|
9.44
|
4.57
|
.926
|
Pedro
|
118-36
|
1408
|
1761
|
2.20
|
213
|
11.26
|
5.59
|
.940
|
This is as close as close can be. Martinez has seven more wins and two more loses, in thirty more innings pitched. Koufax has a slight lead in ERA and WHIP, while Martinez has an edge in strikeouts and strikeout-to-walk ratio.
In terms of leading their respective leagues:
Sandy led the National League in ERA during all five of his peak seasons, while Pedro notched five ERA titles in seven years. That said, when adjusted for contexts, Koufax loses three of those titles, while Pedro keeps all five.
- In 1962, Koufax led the NL with a 2.53 ERA. Adjusting for contexts, it wasn’t as good as the ERA’s of Bob Gibson, Bob Purkey, or Ernie Broglio.
- In 1963 Koufax led the NL with a 1.81 ERA. Adjusting for contexts, it wasn’t as good as Dick Ellsworth’s 2.11 ERA.
- In 1965, Koufax led the NL with a 2.04 ERA. Adjusting for contexts, it wasn’t as good as the ERA’s of Juan Marichal or Vern Law.
Koufax led the league in strikeouts in three of his five seasons. Pedro led the league in strikeouts in three of his seven seasons. Koufax had the best strikeout rate in four of his five seasons, while Pedro was the best in five out of seven seasons.
Koufax led the league in wins three times, while Pedro led just once. That said, Pedro led in winning percentage five times, while Koufax led just once.
Both players won three Cy Young Awards. Koufax finished in the top-five in four of his five peak seasons, while Pedro finished in the top-five in six out of seven seasons.
That’s getting confusing. Here’s all that (and more) in chart form:
|
Koufax
|
Martinez
|
ERA
|
5 of 5
|
5 of 7
|
Wins
|
3 of 5
|
1 of 7
|
Win %
|
2 of 5
|
5 of 7
|
Strikeouts
|
3 of 5
|
3 of 7
|
ERA+
|
2 of 5
|
5 of 7
|
WHIP
|
4 of 5
|
5 of 7
|
Hits per IP
|
4 of 5
|
5 of 7
|
Strikeouts per IP
|
4 of 5
|
5 of 7
|
K/BB Ratio
|
2 of 5
|
3 of 7
|
Cy Young Awards
|
3 of 5
|
3 of 7
|
Top-Five in CY
|
4 of 5
|
6 of 7
|
Bottom line: both pitchers were excellent in their peak seasons: both pitchers regularly led their respective leagues in most pitching categories.
Let’s look at those numbers again:
|
W-L
|
IP
|
K
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
K/9
|
K/BB
|
WHIP
|
Koufax
|
111-34
|
1377
|
1444
|
2.07
|
167
|
9.44
|
4.57
|
.926
|
Pedro
|
118-36
|
1408
|
1761
|
2.20
|
213
|
11.26
|
5.59
|
.940
|
The most striking difference is in Adjusted ERA (ERA+), a measure that considers league and park effects. Let’s look at those contexts a bit further.
I Can’t See Without My Contexts
First, average runs per game, during their peak seasons:
Koufax
|
|
Martinez
|
|
Year
|
R/G
|
Year
|
R/G
|
1962 NL
|
4.48
|
1997 NL
|
4.60
|
1963 NL
|
3.81
|
1998 AL
|
5.01
|
1964 NL
|
4.01
|
1999 AL
|
5.23
|
1965 NL
|
4.03
|
2000 AL
|
5.30
|
1966 NL
|
4.09
|
2001 AL
|
4.86
|
|
|
2002 AL
|
4.81
|
|
|
2003 AL
|
4.87
|
The highest offensive context Koufax ever pitched (1962, NL), was lower than the lowest offensive context that Martinez pitched in (1997 NL).
We all knew this, I suspect. The 1960’s were the decade of the pitcher: in an effort to curtail offense following 1961, baseball raised the mound and widened the strike zone, and pitching dominated the decade. A common game of the 1960’s was a 2-1 nail-bitter, with a lot of stolen bases and a lot of sacrifice bunts. Old-school baseball, the game John McGraw was a practitioner of. It’s a shame the Koufax didn’t make it to 1968, a season when the average NL team scored 3.43 runs per game. It is within the realm of possibility that a healthy Koufax would have posted an ERA of 1.00.
How about park contexts?
Sandy
|
|
Runs
|
Runs
|
Year
|
Team
|
Home
|
Away
|
1962
|
LAD
|
698
|
841
|
1963
|
LAD
|
544
|
646
|
1964
|
LAD
|
518
|
668
|
1965
|
LAD
|
486
|
643
|
1966
|
LAD
|
506
|
590
|
Total
|
|
2752
|
3388
|
Koufax spent the majority of his peak years in the best pitcher’s park in baseball, a stadium that decreased offense by 18.8% during his peak years. In 1965, the Dodgers and their opponents scored a combined 486 runs in L.A. Stadium, and 643 runs on the road.
Pedro Martinez, by contrast, spent his peak years in parks that favored offense:
Pedro
|
|
Runs
|
Runs
|
Year
|
Team
|
Home
|
Away
|
1997
|
MON
|
732
|
699
|
1998
|
BOS
|
803
|
802
|
1999
|
BOS
|
814
|
740
|
2000
|
BOS
|
774
|
763
|
2001
|
BOS
|
769
|
748
|
2002
|
BOS
|
749
|
775
|
2003
|
BOS
|
927
|
843
|
|
|
5568
|
5370
|
With the exception of 2002, when the Red Sox and their opponents averaged more runs in road games than home games, Martinez spent his peak years in hitter’s parks. They weren’t drastic hitter parks: with the new stadiums being built, Fenway has gradually shifted from bring a great hitter’s park to being a neutral stadium. Pedro’s home stadiums have been about 3.8% better for offense than the road stadiums.
How about defense? Defensive efficiency measured the percentage of ball in play that a defense converts into an out. I’ve listed the defensive efficiency of both teams, along with the team’s league rank:
Sandy
|
|
|
Year
|
Def. Eff.
|
League Rank
|
1962
|
.691
|
7th out of 10
|
1963
|
.702
|
8th out of 10
|
1964
|
.708
|
1st out of 10
|
1965
|
.727
|
1st out of 10
|
1966
|
.706
|
3rd out of 10
|
Koufax had two years when his defense was below average, and three years when his defense was one of the elite defenses in the game.
It’s hard to see how, exactly, the Dodgers’ defense improved dramatically between 1963 and 1964. The defensive alignment changed in two regards: Jim Gilliam moved from second to third base, taking over for Ken McMullen, and Nate Oliver took over second base. The team’s defensive efficiency didn’t change too much, from .702 to .708, but the rest of the league declined dramatically.
Four of the five of Koufax’s defenses managed to turn 70% of balls-in-play into outs.
Pedro
|
|
|
Year
|
Def. Eff.
|
League Rank
|
1997
|
0.696
|
5th out of 14
|
1998
|
0.703
|
2nd out of 14
|
1999
|
0.693
|
4th out of 14
|
2000
|
0.696
|
3rd out of 14
|
2001
|
0.684
|
8th out of 14
|
2002
|
0.702
|
6th out of 14
|
2003
|
0.683
|
11th out of 14
|
Pedro also enjoyed strong defenses: though he never had a #1 ranked team, the Boston clubs of 1998-2000 played strong defense behind him. In 2001 and 2003, that defense was a below average, but mostly Pedro has enjoyed a solid defense behind him.
Koufax might have an edge in contextual defenses, but I have little doubt that, matched head-to-head, the defenders behind Pedro would outperform the defense behind Koufax. We can call it the ‘Mays Paradox’: Willie’s catch in the 1954 Series was iconic, but it might not merit an ESPN web-gem in this age of balletic outfielders.
What are some other contexts?
One could argue that Koufax, playing in a league that had ten teams, probably played against better players. That said, baseball in Pedro’s time drew from a far wider base of talent than baseball in Koufax’s time. And the adoption of weight lifting and conditioning among hitter certainly suggests that Pedro’s had his own challenges.
Post-season play deserves a mention. Koufax’s Dodgers went to three World Series’ during his five peak seasons, winning two championships. And Koufax pitched brilliantly: he posted an ERA under 1.00 in seven starts.
During his peak years, Pedro’s teams went to the postseason in 1998, 1999, and 2003. The Red Sox played in five series’, winning two and losing three. Pedro’s record during his seven starts was 4-1 with a 3.11 ERA.
Who You Gonna Take?
The biggest context in Koufax’s favor is the overwhelming degree to which most baseball fans think he had the greatest peak of all-time. It is accepted as truth the same way that my grandfather’s generation accepted that DiMaggio was greater than Williams. The same way that sportswriters knew that Pete Rose embodied the best qualities of the game. The same way we all assume that Lou Gehrig is the greatest first baseman of all-time. Say something enough and it becomes true. It becomes fact.
Do I think Koufax had the greatest peak of all-time?
One more table should answer that. The first- and second-place finishers in ERA, in the years Koufax and Pedro led their leagues in ERA:
1962
|
|
|
1997
|
|
Sandy Koufax
|
2.54
|
|
Pedro Martinez
|
1.90
|
Bob Shaw
|
2.80
|
|
Greg Maddux
|
2.21
|
1963
|
|
|
1999
|
|
Sandy Koufax
|
1.88
|
|
Pedro Martinez
|
2.07
|
Dick Ellsworth
|
2.11
|
|
David Cone
|
3.45
|
1964
|
|
|
2000
|
|
Sandy Koufax
|
1.74
|
|
Pedro Martinez
|
1.74
|
Don Drysdale
|
2.18
|
|
Roger Clemens
|
3.70
|
1965
|
|
|
2002
|
|
Sandy Koufax
|
2.04
|
|
Pedro Martinez
|
2.26
|
Juan Marichal
|
2.13
|
|
Derek Lowe
|
2.58
|
1966
|
|
|
2003
|
|
Sandy Koufax
|
1.73
|
|
Pedro Martinez
|
2.22
|
Mike Cueller
|
2.22
|
|
Tim Hudson
|
2.70
|
The largest distance between Koufax and his nearest competitor in ERA is forty-nine points, when he was out ahead of Mike Cueller in 1966. But the largest distance between Pedro and his nearest competitor is one-hundred and ninety-six points, when he lapped Roger Clemens and the rest of the AL in 2000.
Koufax, in his prime, was one of the greatest pitchers anyone’s ever seen. All poetry aside, Pedro was even better.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City, IA. He welcomes comments, questions, and critiques of his articles by the folks at FireJoeMorgan here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.