OK, we did not have a good week.    In our first predictions of the NFL season last week, we agreed with the Las Vegas oddsmakers on 12 of 14 games.    When we agreed with Vegas, we were 7-5.   When we disagreed, we were 1-1.   Overall, we were right on 8 games (in terms of predicting the winner) and wrong on 6.    Vegas was the same.   However, in terms of predicting points scored, we were horrible.    My new system for predicting points scored in a game did not function well.   I don’t know what the exact count was, but. …wasn’t good.

            Let’s review first the ones we got right.   Minnesota at St. Louis, we predicted Minnesota winning 31-7.    It was actually 38-10, so that’s a very good prediction.   Tampa Bay at Philadelphia, we had the Eagles winning 39-14.   It was actually 33-14, so. ..can’t complain about that.    Indianapolis at the Titans. . ..we had the Colts winning 33-18, they actually won 31-9, so that’s OK.

            We had Arizona beating Houston 31-21; it was actually 28-21, so that’s better than one could reasonably expect.    Pittsburgh at Detroit, we had it 29-20 Pittsburgh; it was actually 28-20, one point off.     Dallas at Kansas City, we had it 28-20, Dallas; it was actually 26-20.   Those six games, we were right on the result, and pretty good on the score.

            Oakland at the Giants, we saw the Giants winning 27-12; they actually won 44-7, so. . ..it’s a win.   It’s a decisive win for the Giants and we predicted a decisive win for the Giants, but we’re not real close on the score.     Those are the seven games that our system predicted correctly and in concert with Las Vegas.     We also got the result right in one game that the underdog won—Denver over New England.  We had it Denver 15, New England 9; it was actually 20-17, so we were right on the result, although even there our point system was poor.   We had 24 points being scored, Las Vegas had 41, and it was actually 37.  

            Atlanta at San Francisco, we had the 49ers winning 29-10; it was actually 45-10 the other way, so that’s a ridiculously bad prediction.    Cincinnati at Baltimore, we had it Baltimore 27, Bengals 21; actually it was 17-14 the other way.  We were wrong on the result and wrong on the points.    Cleveland at Buffalo, we had Buffalo winning 27-21; it was actually Cleveland, 6-3, so we were wrong on the result and, again, worse than Vegas on the total points scored (Vegas had 40, we had 48, it was actually 9.)

            Jacksonville at Seattle, Las Vegas had the Jags winning by 3, we had the Jags winning by 4, but actually Seattle won by 41.    We couldn’t call that “close”, could we?   You don’t think?

The Monday night game was the Jets at the Dolphins.    Las Vegas had the Jets winning 20-17.  We had the Jets winning 13-7.   Actually, the Dolphins won 31-27.    Vegas was wrong on the outcome; we were wrong on the outcome and the over/under.

            Those five games we were wrong, but we at least agreed with the oddsmakers as to the outcome.   But Washington at Carolina, the oddsmakers had Carolina winning it 20-17—and they did.    20-17.   We had Washington winning it, 10-9.

            You may have heard, but did you realize that Washington through Week Six will not have played a team that has a win?    Week One they played the Giants.  Both teams, of course, were 0-0.   Week Two they played the Rams, who were 0-1.   Week Three the played the Lions, who were 0-2 (but beat Washington).    Week Four they played Tampa Bay, who was 0-3.    Week Five they played Carolina, also 0-3.    This week they will play Kansas City.   Kansas City is 0-5.

            And yet, as phenomenal as that is, Washington still has not played the weakest schedule in the league.  The Giants:

            Detroit’s average opponent this year is more than two touchdowns better than the Giants’.

The Giants are about to be tested, though.   Washington should own that category by next week.   These are our updated NFL Power Ratings:

            And this is how we see this week’s games shaping up:

            At this point we appear to agree with Las Vegas on every game except one, and to be close on the point spreads on most of the games.    The one game we see differently is Denver at San Diego.   The oddsmakers have that San Diego, 24-20; we have it Denver, 24-17.   In terms of the spread, the biggest difference is in the marquee game, the Giants at New Orleans.   Most knowledgeable people think it will be close, and many think the Giants will win.   Our system, which doesn’t know anything except the scores of the games and that New Orleans is at home, thinks the Saints will win easily.  

            Over/unders. . .we’re mostly consistent with Las Vegas.  Here, let’s line it up:

            So we’re within four points on every game except Arizona at Seattle—they see it as a high-scoring game; we don’t—and Chicago at Atlanta (same thing).   Arizona has scored 85 points in four games and allowed 89, so I don’t see them as a high-scoring team.  Seattle has played five games, scored 115 and allowed only 82, so they certainly haven’t been a wide-open team this year.   The betting must be based on what Arizona did last year, maybe?

            These are the current temperatures of the 32 teams: