We have three weeks before Opening Day, so I thought I’d take a quick look at the divisions this year. Also, this gives us a forum to talk about the upcoming season, on a division-by-division basis. We’ll start with the wild, wild (AL) West:
Los Angeles Angels
Last year: 97-65, 1st place. Won ALDS vs. Red Sox. Lost ALCS vs. Yankees.
Key Additions: Hideki Matsui, Scott Kazmir (arrived last year)
Key Subtractions: Chone Figgins, Vlad Guerrero, John Lackey. Over the offseason, the Angels lost 1) their best player, 2) their second-best pitcher, and 3) their most famous slugger. Teams have had decades more stable than the Angels 2009-2010 offseason.
Best Player: First baseman Kendry Morales. New York Times writer Robert Andrew Powell wrote a terrific article about Morales and his agent/accountant/friend John Di Manno. It was written in 2005 and titled “The Cuban Import.” It’s a fascinating read.
Best Pitcher: Jered Weaver.
Most Fun to Watch: Hideki Matsui is on the short list of hitters I hate to see batting against the Red Sox in a crucial situation. He’s done his fair bit of damage in Beantown: he is a career .331 hitter in Fenway, and he posted a memorable .414/.444/.824 line during the 2004 ALCS. A friend of mine in Iowa is a Yankee fan, and Matsui is about the only Yankee player about whom we can carry on a civil conversation.
Only a Mother Could Love: Brian Fuentes. The league leader in saves, Fuentes was used in a lot of high-leverage situations, which led to seven blown saves and an ERA nearing 4.00. His k-rate declined from 11.8 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched to just 7.6, and his walk rate increased. The Angels had a plethora of bullpen arms ready to move into the closer spot should he falter.
Fantasy Sleepers: We could call them the ‘Great Scot(t)s’ I suppose…I like pitchers who have good strikeout rates, and Scott Kazmir and Scot Shields both have histories of excellent strikeout rates. Shields could be a terrific closer somewhere…I don’t know that he’ll ever get the chance.
Interesting Stat: Howie Kendrick hit .354 during the second-half. Before you go out and peg him for the batting title, it’s worth noting that his .414 batting average on balls-on-play probably helped.
Ecksteiner: Erick Aybar will be the leadoff hitter for the Angels this season, taking over for the departed Chone Figgins. Aybar has a respectable .353 on-base percentage in 2009, but prior to that he had just a .298 on-base percentage in 211 major league games.
A Penny Spent is a Penny Burned: Gary Matthews Jr., on the Mets now, is well-paid for an outfielder with a sub-.700 OPS. It’s not his fault, and there are worse contracts in baseball. Still, the Angels are paying $21.5 million dollars to whatever team winds up giving him at-bats.
Joe Morgan ‘Consistancy’ Award: I’ve always been ambivalent about Bobby Abreu, but you can’t argue with a hitter who notches 100 runs/RBI’s, hits .300, walks 90 times, and steals 20 bases like clockwork. Hell, he’s even reliable in the outfield: since 2005 Abreu’s ranked 32nd, 32nd, 32nd, 34th, and 32nd in defensive runs saved among major league outfielders. Which just shows that consistency isn’t always a positive.
Hall of Famers: Abreu is the only player with Hall-of-Fame credentials, and if Dawson and Rice are the benchmarks for the Hall then Abreu probably should go in. But it’s hard for a player with diverse skills to get the same recognition as a one-note slugger.
What’s Past Is Prologue, Sebastian: The Angels have come in 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 1st over the last five years. That’s a fine track record, suggesting that they will at least contend in 2009.
Outlook for 2009: The Angels have lost, and the Rangers and Mariners have gained. More concerning, the Angels lost good players: Figgins was an MVP candidate and Lackey was the rock of the rotation. The Angels were second in the AL in runs scored last year, largely because they had Figgins and Abreu hitting 1-2 at the top of their order. It will be difficult for Aybar to post the same .395 on-base percentage that Figgins did. The team’s pitching was about average last year: with Lackey gone, and with Fuentes on the hot seat, the team is counting on Ervin Santana and Kazmir to turn that around.
Having said that, the Angels are a young team, and they will contend. I don’t know if 95 wins are in the cards this year, but they will competitive in 2009, as they have been for most of the last ten years.
Prediction: 2nd.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Last year: 75-87, 4th in AL West.
Key Additions: Coco Crisp, Jake Fox, Aaron Miles
Key Subtractions: Adam Kennedy, who led the A’s in Win Shares in 2009, with 18.
Best Player: Kurt Suzuki, catcher. His jump in power hid a drop in on-base percentage.
Best Pitcher: Andrew Bailey. Oakland’s best offensive player is their catcher. Their best pitcher is their closer. That probably doesn’t bode well for them.
Most Fun to Watch: Jack Cust. I wish Cust had gotten a chance when he was 22 years old, instead of having to wait until he was 28. We’re seeing the decline, but we missed out on seeing the peak. That’s a shame.
Cust has led the league in strikeouts in each of the past three seasons. The other eight players who have accomplished this feat: Adam Dunn, Sammy Sosa, Andres Galarraga, Mike Schmidt, Bobby Darwin, Reggie Jackson, Vince DiMaggio, and Hack Wilson. Not such bad company: Schmidt, Jackson, and Wilson are Hall-of-Famers, while Galarraga, Dunn, and Sosa had fine careers. DiMaggio had the Hall-of-Fame name, if not the career. Bobby Darwin never quite evolved into an All-Star…wrong beak, I suppose.
Reggie, DiMaggio, and Wilson led in strikeouts for four consecutive seasons…Cust will try to tie that record in 2010.
Only a Mother Could Love: A Brad Pitt film that deals in sabermetrics and has a pixilated Bill James. Well, I’d pay eight bucks to see it.
Fantasy Sleepers: Ben Sheets. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was 8.25 in 2004, and 10.55 in 2006.I’m just saying.
Interesting Stat: Of the 23 pitchers on Oakland’s roster, only three were born in the 1970’s. Also: Rajai Davis has more vowels than consonants in his full name.
Ecksteiner: Not to explain things too much, but an ‘Ecksteiner’ is a player who is generally overrated by the media, or the fans. There isn’t anyone on the A’s who is particularly overrated. They are an unknown bunch.
A Penny Spent is a Penny Burned: Eric Chavez’s contract made sense in 2004: he was twenty-six years old, and was coming off a terrific season. But the Chavez Regime has been a terrible bust for the A’s, for whom Chavez has played just 121 games over the last three years.
Joe Morgan ‘Consistancy’ Award: Mark Ellis is the most consistent player the A’s have. Just as a comparison, the most consistent player the Cardinals have is Albert Pujols.
Oh Captain, My Captain: Can you name the A’s manager? It’s Bob Geren. The A’s have been treading water over Geren’s three-year reign, winning 75, 75, and 76 games each year. Actually, the A’s have underperformed their expected W-L record each year: they were -3 in 2007, -1 in 2008, and -6 in 2009.
Hall of Famers: Brett Anderson has the best chance to make the Hall-of-Fame. He is twenty-one years old, which makes any further speculation pointless.
What’s Past Is Prologue, Sebastian: The A’s finished 4th in 2009, 3rd in 2008, and 3rd in 2007.
Outlook for 2010: There are some positive indicators: the A’s are young, they have talented players, and the team record is not an accurate measure of their ability. They are rebuilding, but they’re making smart moves (the acquisition of Michael Taylor was a great move). I think they’ll contend in another year.
Prediction: 4th, but a team on the rise.
SEATTLE MARINERS
Last year: 85-77, third in the AL West.
Key Additions: Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Eric Byrnes, Ian Snell (halfway through last season).
Key Subtractions: Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva, Bill Hall.
Best Player: Ichiro Suzuki.
Best Pitcher: Ian Snell? Jason Vargas? One of those two, I’m sure.
Most Fun to Watch: Ichiro Suzuki. Actually, the Mariners are going to be fun in 2010: they have Ichiro and Figgins at the top of their order, Milton Bradley doing his crazy act, and Felix and Lee in the rotation. They have Aardsma as their new and dominant closer. That’s a lot to talk about. It’ll be a fun year for the Seattle beat writers.
Only a Mother Could Love: Milton Bradley. Actually, I kinda like Bradley, too. He’s honest, and sometimes honesty can be misinterpreted as immaturity. A six-year old calls a fat lady fat, and the six-year old is immature. A thirty-year old calls the Cubs organization stupid, and…well, you get my point.
Bradley said he didn’t feel comfortable in Wrigley; that comment didn’t come from nowhere. Chicago is a city fascinated with race; fascinated and obsessed and conflicted. That plays out on the ballclubs, too. Bradley said that the culture around the Cubs was negative: well, a hundred years of losing will take a toll.
I’m not making apologies for Bradley, but I think it’s lazy to just write him off as ‘immature.’ Much madness is divine sense, right?
Fantasy Sleepers: Jose Lopez isn’t a sleeper, but as a second baseman, he’s worth a look.
Ecksteiner: Griffey, of course: Junior had 454 plate appearances last year, posting a .735 OPS as a designated hitter. That’s not good: there are players on the Mariners who would do more with those plate appearances.
The problem with formerly-great players is managers tend to play those players too much. Hank Aaron wasn’t a good player in 1976, but who the hell was Alex Grammas to keep him out of the lineup. Who the hell is Don Wakamatsu to bench Griffey?
A Penny Spent is a Penny Earned: The Mariners paid the Cubs $9 million to swap Carlos Silva’s contract for Milton Bradley’s….Silva’s contract was bad.
Joe Morgan ‘Consistancy’ Award: Ichiro has nine straight years of 200 or more hits.
Hall of Famers: Ichiro is an obvious Hall-of-Famer, as is Griffey. Felix Hernandez is on a Hall-of Fame path…let’s say he’s 25% there.
What’s Past Is Prologue, Sebastian: Win totals, 2009 to 2005: 85, 61, 88, 78, 69. Don’t let the 85 wins fool you: Mariners were outscored by fifty-two runs last year. They were 35-20 in one-run games. There was a lot of luck involved last year.
Outlook for 2009: People are bullish on the Mariners, for good reason. Their new additions are terrific: Lee is going to be better than Washburn, Snell is going to be better than Silva, and Figgins is going to be better than Beltre. If Milton Bradley can mellow out in the rainy city, the Mariners will have a better lineup than last season.
That said, the Mariners weren’t an 85-win team last year. They were a 76-win team masquerading as a contender. The additions might make them six or seven games better, which pushes them to 83 wins. With the Angels sliding, the Mariners will contend, but I don’t know that they’ll win.
Prediction: 3rd, disappointingly.
TEXAS RANGERS
Last year: 87-75, 2nd in the AL West.
Key Additions: Rich Harden, Dan Oliver
Key Subtractions: Kevin Millwood.
Best Player: Ian Kinsler.
Best Pitcher: Rich Harden. One has to like the idea of Harden pitching for Nolan Ryan.
Most Fun to Watch: Elvis Andrus. The Rangers moved franchise stalwart Michael Young to third to make room for the twenty-year old. That’s a bold move, and I think the Rangers did it just right. A lot of franchises would have backed off from the change when Michael Young raised his hackles, but the Rangers stuck to their guns. They told Andrus that he was the shortstop, come hell or high water, and they left him alone to rise to the job.
Fantasy Sleepers: Julio Borbon will be the leadoff hitter and centerfielder for the Rangers this year, after a 46-game stint during which he posted a .312 batting average, and an on-base percentage of .376.
Interesting Stat: Only Seattle, Chicago, and Boston allowed fewer runs to score than Texas did in 2009.
Ecksteiner/A Penny Spent is a Penny Earned/Joe Morgan ‘Consistancy’ Award: Michael Young fits the bill for all three. At least as a hitter, Young is overrated: his .300 batting average hides a low secondary average. He will make $16 million over each of the next four seasons, which will carry him through his Age-36 season. And he is obviously the Ranger’s most reliable player.
Hall of Famers: And Young gets a mention here, too: the four most comparable players at his age are Barry Larkin, Julio Franco, Craig Biggio, and Travis Jackson: three Hall-of-Famers and Franco. Of course, the other six comparable, according to baseballreference, are Jose Vidro, Ray Durham, Edgardo Alfonzo, Carlos Baerga, Red Kress, and Jay Bell.
Young probably isn’t a Hall-of-Famer: he had a late start to his career, and is unlikely to reach the big milestones. His best credential for the Hall is a .302 lifetime batting average, but that could slip below .300 with one or two off seasons.
Ian Kinsler is an interesting candidate, but I’m not as sold on him as others are.
What’s Past Is Prologue, Sebastian: The Rangers came in second last year, winning 87 games after four seasons of sub-.500 baseball. The same thing happened in 2004: the Rangers jumped to 89 wins after four crummy years.
Outlook for 2009: Like the Mariners, the Rangers have to be excited about the exodus from Anaheim (or wherever the hell the Angels play). And unlike Seattle, the Rangers 87-75 record in 2009 is an accurate reflection of the team’s ability.
Texas pitchers were above average in ERA last year, posting a 4.38 mark to the league average of 4.45. That’s a huge accomplishment: the Texas staff finished dead last in 2008, and was below the league average in 2005-2007. Defensively, the Rangers had the third-best defensive efficiency in the AL last year.
As usual, the Rangers will score runs. The strides they’ve made to improve their pitching and defense should be enough to win the AL West.
Prediction: 1st.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Chicago, IL. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com