IX.  The Strongest Franchises Of Early Baseball

We have finally reached the point at which we can begin to suggest answers to the practical questions which are the point of this exercise.   If the Yankees are the strongest team of baseball history (if?  IF??), when did they become so?   How far ahead are they?   Who is second?  Who is weakest?   Is there any realistic chance that any other team could ever catch the Yankees?

Of course my answers to these questions are just estimates.  The thing is. ..well, who else has estimates at all?   Who else writes about these kind of issues?   These are interesting questions; this is my effort to suggest how they might be answered.  That’s all it is.

The National League started in 1876.   The National League was a re-organized version of an earlier league, the National Association, which had played from 1871 to 1875.   In recent years it has become popular to try to treat the National Association as “major league” baseball.   The view of the author is that none of it is major league baseball; the “major league” baseball of 1889 does not resemble major league baseball in any way, shape or form, does not meet any standard or test of “major league” status, and cannot reasonably be described as major league ball.    The National Association doesn’t meet the standards of a good High School League.   This is not hyperbole; it doesn’t.

But. . .that’s neither here nor there.   The history and legacy of the Chicago Cubs undeniably traces back to 1876, and arguably before then, but we’ll treat the Cubs of 1876 as a clean start.

By 1880 there were seven teams in the National League, of which the Cubs and the Boston Braves were by far the strongest:

 

1880	Chicago	Cubs		NL		5.1
1880	Boston	Braves		NL		4.8
1880	Providence	Grays		NL		2.3
1880	Cincinnati	Red Stockings		NL		1.8
1880	Cleveland	Blues		NL		1.3
1880	Buffalo	Bisons		NL		1.2
1880	Troy	Trojans		NL		0.8
1880	Worcester	Ruby Legs		NL		0.8
1880	TOTAL STRENGTH						18.01
1880	AVERAGE STRENGTH						2.25

 

There were also seven defunct teams by then, but all of them, having come and gone very quickly, were legally dead by 1880.

Baseball in 1880 was at a very primitive state, as indicated by that “18.0” number.   Games rarely drew crowds as large as 1,000 fans.   Teams had one pitcher, or two, and often the one pitcher was a 19-year-old kid, or 20 or 21.   Players were just starting to wear gloves.   It wasn’t really anything like major league baseball is now.

In 1880 the Cubs went 67-17, winning the National League in a walk.    By that time Cap Anson had pioneered the practice of stealing the best players from other leagues—the practice that ultimately made the National League the “major” league.    It had also put the Chicago team ahead of the other National League teams, where they would stay for the first half of the 1880s.  The success of baseball in Chicago had proved the economic viability of baseball as a spectator sport, and other leagues were organizing all around the country to get in on the action.  Throughout the 1880s, many of these teams and leagues made an effort to match the stature of the National League.

The most successful rival league was the American Association, and the most successful team in the American Association was the St. Louis team managed by Charles Comiskey.   The St. Louis and Chicago teams played some post-season series which were kind of half-assed World Series, and these two teams emerged as the teams with the strongest traditions. 

In 1890 the players organized a union, and started their own league, the Players League.   The teams in the Players League had no history or tradition, but they played.   In 1890 there were 25 “active” major league teams, as one team replaced another in mid-season.   The strongest of those franchises are the ones that still survive today:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1890	Chicago	Cubs	NL	18.7
1890	St. Louis	Cardinals	AA	15.4
1890	Boston	Braves	NL	15.3
1890	New York	Giants	NL	11.9
1890	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	11.5
1890	Philadelphia	Athletics	AA	10.5
1890	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	10.1
1890	Louisville	Colonels	AA	8.9
1890	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	8.9
1890	Baltimore	Orioles	AA	6.5
1890	Cleveland	Spiders	NL	4.0
1890	New York	Giants	PL	3.8
1890	Pittsburgh	Burghers	PL	2.9
1890	Columbus	Buckeyes	AA	2.8
1890	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	2.7
1890	Buffalo	Bisons	PL	2.5
1890	Boston	Red Stockings	PL	2.0
1890	Brooklyn	Wonders	PL	1.7
1890	Chicago	Pirates	PL	1.6
1890	Philadelphia	Quakers	PL	1.4
1890	Toledo	Maumees	AA	1.4
1890	Rochester	Hop-Bitters	AA	1.3
1890	Syracuse	Stars	AA	1.1
1890	Cleveland	Infants	PL	0.9
1890	Brooklyn	Gladiators	AA	0.1

 

The Cleveland Infants and Brooklyn Gladiators were new teams that were declared legally dead as soon as the season was over.   Three other teams were inactive in 1890 but still alive in memory:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1890	Detroit	Wolverines	NL	3.7
1890	Providence	Grays	NL	3.7
1890	St. Louis	Maroons	NL	1.4

 

And two other teams lived into 1890 (in spirit) but died after that horrible season:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1890	Indiana	Hoosiers	NL	0.9	Legally Dead
1890	Kansas City	Cowboys	AA	0.6	Legally Dead

 

In 1880 the total historical strength of the existing franchises was 18.01 stakes.   In 1890 it was 156.99 stakes.    Baseball had grown enormously during those ten years.

Still, 1890 was a horrible season because the Players League divided the players, divided the loyalties of the fans, created confused identities, and everybody lost a lot of money.   In all likelihood fewer people attended baseball games in 1890 than had in 1889, and there were more teams to split the audience.   It was a tough summer, and the Players League folded at the end of the year.

After the 1891 season the American Association and the National League folded into one twelve-team league.   The twelve-team league didn’t work well.   There were interlocking ownership arrangements, with the same people owning shares in several different teams.   The owners moved players around to re-pay debts among themselves or to amuse themselves, causing the league to divide into strong teams and extremely weak, non-competitive teams.   After the 1899 season four of the weak, non-competitive teams were dropped from the league by agreement among the owners.

The Boston Braves and the Baltimore Orioles were the great teams of the 1890s.   As the Braves came into the decade with a tradition already in place, by 1900 the Braves were the strongest team in baseball history:

 

YEAR		City			Team	Lg	Stakes
1900		Boston			Braves	NL	29.2
1900		Chicago			Cubs	NL	26.1
1900		Cincinnati			Reds	NL	21.5
1900		New York			Giants	NL	21.3
1900		Brooklyn			Dodgers	NL	20.6
1900		Philadelphia			Phillies	NL	20.3
1900		St. Louis			Cardinals	NL	18.4
1900		Pittsburgh			Pirates	NL	14.7
			21.5

 

Although the Baltimore Orioles had been one of the glamour teams of the 1890s, they did not survive the cut in 1899.   As best I understand this, each “cabal” of owners agreed to cut one of their weak teams.    The people who owned the Baltimore Orioles also owned the Brooklyn team, and they placed their bet on Brooklyn, agreeing to cut out Baltimore.

The two leagues (the National League and American Association) in 1891 had unified in an effort to create a monopoly.   The monopoly failed because of the poor ownership arrangements, so that whereas the 1880s were a great decade for baseball, a boom decade, and the early 1890s were a continuation of that boom, the late 1890s (1897-1899) were ugly and unhealthy.

In addition to the eight “active” teams, there were nine other teams in 1900 that were alive in memory although they were no longer playing:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1900	Baltimore	Orioles	NL	9.5
1900	Cleveland	Spiders	NL	6.9
1900	Louisville	Colonels	NL	6.1
1900	Philadelphia	Athletics	AA	4.5
1900	Detroit	Wolverines	NL	2.7
1900	Providence	Grays	NL	2.7
1900	Columbus	Buckeyes	AA	1.4
1900	New York	Metropolitians	AA	1.4
1900	Pittsburgh	Burghers	PL	1.3
1900	Boston	Red Stockings	AA	1.3
1900	St. Louis	Maroons	NL	1.1

 

But the total strength of all the franchises in 1900 (including the nine inactive ones) was 172.12, barely up from 1890 (156.99).

 

The American League declared itself a major league competitor in 1901.   The National League, by trying to consolidate its monopoly, had unwittingly fed its new competitor.   The American League teams picked up the legacies discarded by the nine teams listed above—a new Baltimore Orioles team in Baltimore, a new team in Cleveland, in Philadelphia, in Detroit, in Boston and in St. Louis (in 1902).  All of these teams picked up the legacies of inactive teams.

Still, the “real” National League teams were well ahead in terms of having an established fan base and a going business, and by 1910 the National League teams remained far ahead.   The powerhouse teams of the decade were the Cubs with Tinker, Evers and Chance, the Giants with Mathewson and McGinnity, and the Pirates with Honus Wagner and Fred Clarke:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1910	Chicago	Cubs	NL	48.0
1910	New York	Giants	NL	37.1
1910	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	35.7
1910	Boston	Braves	NL	28.5
1910	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	28.0
1910	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	27.2
1910	Philadelphia	A's	AL	25.0
1910	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	24.1
1910	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	20.7
1910	Chicago	White Sox	AL	19.9
1910	Cleveland	Indians	AL	19.1
1910	Boston	Red Sox	AL	19.0
1910	Detroit	Tigers	AL	16.4
1910	New York	Yankees	AL	15.4
1910	St. Louis	Browns	AL	10.3
1910	Washington	Senators	AL	8.1
Average Strength of Existing Teams:				23.9

 

            The average strength of an existing team, you will note, had increased very little during these ten years, but as there were twice as many active teams, the total strength had shot up, including the four franchises that lived on in memory, to 397.1:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1910	Baltimore	Orioles	NL	7.0
1910	Louisville	Colonels	NL	4.5
1910	Providence	Grays	NL	2.0
1910	Columbus	Buckeyes	AA	1.1
	TOTAL :			397.1

 

            The Cubs’ era of greatness ended early in the next decade, but they were so far ahead in 1910 that it would take some years for anyone to catch up.    By 1920, however, they had rivals:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1920	Chicago	Cubs	NL	50.1
1920	Boston	Red Sox	AL	47.9
1920	New York	Giants	NL	45.2
1920	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	38.7
1920	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	38.0
1920	Boston	Braves	NL	35.9
1920	Philadelphia	A's	AL	35.6
1920	Chicago	White Sox	AL	35.3
1920	Cleveland	Indians	AL	33.2
1920	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	33.0
1920	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	30.4
1920	Detroit	Tigers	AL	25.7
1920	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	25.5
1920	New York	Yankees	AL	23.4
1920	Washington	Senators	AL	19.3
1920	St. Louis	Browns	AL	16.7
Average Strength of Existing Franchises:				33.4

 

            The National League teams were still richer, had a longer history and tradition, but the difference was receding in memory, and it was receding more rapidly because the American League won the World Series almost every year.  The Red Sox won the World Series in 1912, 1915, 1916 and 1918.    Other American League teams won in 1911, 1913, 1917 and 1920.   The American League was “creating history” at a much faster pace.

            The weakest teams in 1920 were the Browns and the Washington Senators—teams that would remain weak, generally speaking, over the next several decades.    Just ahead of them, however, were two teams that would soon begin to make some more positive history:  the Yankees and the Cardinals.

            Meanwhile, another rival league had come and gone.   The Federal League played in 1913, and claimed major league status in 1914-1915.  As had happened in 1890, the existence of too many teams competing head to head—three teams in St. Louis, three teams in Chicago, two in Pittsburgh—confused the fans and resulted in fewer fans attending the games, even as there were more players to support.   The league folded but lived on in a lawsuit, and in Wrigley Field.    Wrigley Field—you probably know this—was built for the Chicago Whales, and baseball’s anti-trust exemption grew out of a suit filed by Federal League owners who were cut out of the 1916 settlement between the leagues.    Because of the Federal League there were nine “inactive but still living” teams in 1920:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1920	Baltimore	Orioles	NL	5.2
1920	Louisville	Colonels	NL	3.3
1920	Chicago	Whales	FL	1.6
1920	Providence	Grays	NL	1.5
1920	Buffalo	Buffeds	FL	1.3
1920	Pittsburgh	Rebels	FL	1.3
1920	St. Louis	Terriers	FL	1.2
1920	Kansas City	Packers	FL	1.2
1920	Brooklyn	Tip-Tops	FL	1.2
Total Strength of all "living" franchises:				551.5

 

 

X.  The Era of Stability

 

            There is a phrase you often hear, “The sixteen original franchises”.    I don’t much care for the phrase, which supposes that baseball history began where our memories begin.   There are, of course, not sixteen “original” franchises, at all.   There were, up to 1960, sixteen survivors of a long war in which many more than sixteen teams were killed.  Still, we know to what the phrase refers, and so I’ll use it.

            The New York Giants won the World Series in 1921.  By so doing, the Giants passed the Cubs as the strongest franchise of baseball history.   They would hold that position for the rest of the decade.   The Yankees, meanwhile, were charging up the list:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1930	New York	Giants	NL	58.8
1930	Chicago	Cubs	NL	52.5
1930	Philadelphia	A's	AL	52.1
1930	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	50.1
1930	New York	Yankees	AL	49.5
1930	Boston	Red Sox	AL	41.9
1930	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	41.5
1930	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	39.3
1930	Cleveland	Indians	AL	37.8
1930	Chicago	White Sox	AL	36.9
1930	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	35.5
1930	Boston	Braves	NL	34.4
1930	Washington	Senators	AL	33.7
1930	Detroit	Tigers	AL	32.5
1930	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	30.4
1930	St. Louis	Browns	AL	25.0
AVERAGE OF ACTIVE TEAMS:				40.7

 

            And five of the defunct franchises continued to live on:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1930	Baltimore	Orioles	NL	3.8
1930	Louisville	Colonels	NL	2.4
1930	Chicago	Whales	FL	1.2
1930	Providence	Grays	NL	1.1
1930	Buffalo	Buffeds	FL	1.0
TOTAL STRENGTH OF ALL FRANCHISES:				661.5

 

            Now then, one of our relevant questions.   When did the Yankees ascend to the position of the greatest team through baseball history?

            1937.   The Yankees won the World Series in 1932 and 1936, which pushed them up to second place on the all-time list—and the Cardinals, winning the World Series in 1931 and 1934, had moved up to fourth:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1936	New York	Giants	NL	64.6
1936	New York	Yankees	AL	63.6
1936	Chicago	Cubs	NL	55.0
1936	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	53.0

 

            In 1937 the Yankees and the Giants met in the World Series, as they had in 1936.    Had the Giants been able to beat the Yankees, they would have solidified their hold as the greatest franchise in baseball history.   Instead, the Yankees destroyed them in five games (8-1, 8-1, 5-1, 3-7, 4-2), and the Yankees took the lead chair.   There they remain, 73 years later.   By 1940, World Series triumphs in 1938 and 1939 had pushed them well ahead:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1940	New York	Yankees	AL	79.6
1940	New York	Giants	NL	63.8
1940	Chicago	Cubs	NL	55.8
1940	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	53.6
1940	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	51.9
1940	Philadelphia	A's	AL	48.3
1940	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	47.4
1940	Detroit	Tigers	AL	44.1
1940	Cleveland	Indians	AL	43.7
1940	Boston	Red Sox	AL	43.6
1940	Chicago	White Sox	AL	38.7
1940	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	38.7
1940	Washington	Senators	AL	38.4
1940	Boston	Braves	NL	36.3
1940	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	29.2
1940	St. Louis	Browns	AL	25.3
Average Strength of Active Teams:				46.1

 

            Only two of the inactive franchises still had a pulse:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1940	Baltimore	Orioles	NL	2.8
1940	Louisville	Colonels	NL	1.8
Total Strength of all 18 living franchises:				743.0

 

            But the Old Orioles were very much alive in the lore of the game.   Several of the 1890s Baltimore Orioles became famous managers in the 20^th century, and told stories about the Orioles to newspaper writers.    The “2.8” figure above understates how “live” the Orioles really were at that time.

 

            The great teams of the 1940s were the St. Louis Cardinals and the Yankees.    The Cardinals won the World Series in 1942, 1944 and 1946, the Yankees in 1941, 1943, 1947 and 1949.   By 1950 they were the 1-2 teams of baseball history:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1950	New York	Yankees	AL	100.4
1950	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	71.7
1950	New York	Giants	NL	59.6
1950	Chicago	Cubs	NL	53.0
1950	Detroit	Tigers	AL	52.9
1950	Cleveland	Indians	AL	51.8
1950	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	50.4
1950	Boston	Red Sox	AL	49.2
1950	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	46.9
1950	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	46.3
1950	Philadelphia	A's	AL	44.6
1950	Boston	Braves	NL	39.4
1950	Chicago	White Sox	AL	39.0
1950	Washington	Senators	AL	38.5
1950	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	30.3
1950	St. Louis	Browns	AL	29.1
Average:				50.2

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1950	Baltimore	Orioles	NL	2.1
1950	Louisville	Colonels	NL	1.3
Total of active and inactive teams:				806.6

 

            OK, let’s review quickly the bidding.   In 1900 the average historical capital of an active major league team was 22 stakes.  In 1910 it was 24 stakes; in 1920, 33 stakes.  By 1930 this had increased to 41 stakes, by 1940 to 46, and by 1950 to 50 stakes.  In 1952 it actually reached a peak of 50.9.   As baseball had been stable for a long time, with the same teams playing in the same cities, their historical capital had accumulated.

            Historical capital is not exactly the same as “fan base”, but in a sense that is what we are talking about here.    When teams in the 1880s had very, very little historical property, they also had very small fan bases.    That grew, and grew, and grew—and attendance grew and grew.   By 1948 the Historical property of a major league team was 49.5 stakes.   The average attendance at a game was 16,913 fans.

            In the 1950s this changed suddenly.   Teams started abandoning their fans—abandoning their historical capital—to market themselves to cities that didn’t know or care anything about them.   When that created problems, baseball manufactured new teams as surrogates for the old.   This gave them two teams with no history instead of one.    The average attendance at a major league game dropped by 15%, and failed to grow for 20 years thereafter.    It wasn’t until they stopped doing this that baseball began to grow once again.     In 1975 the average attendance at a major league game was 15,403—27 years of a negative growth rate in per-game attendance.

 

XI.  The Era of Instability

 

            I notice this in so many areas:  that people think of the 1950s as a safe and stable era, when in reality there has never been any era of American history or perhaps any era of world history which was wrenched so thoroughly by so many powerful changes.   The radicalism of the 1960s was an after-effect of the profound changes of the years 1946 to 1960.

            In baseball as well.   The St. Louis Browns moved to Baltimore, picking up the thread of the Orioles’ history but dividing their own.    The Braves left Boston, the Athletics left Kansas City, and the Dodgers and Giants caught the last train for the coast.    The Yankees, meanwhile, continued to win the World Series almost every year:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1960	New York	Yankees	AL	114.8
1960	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	66.8
1960	Cleveland	Indians	AL	55.7
1960	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	52.0
1960	Detroit	Tigers	AL	50.7
1960	Boston	Red Sox	AL	50.2
1960	Chicago	Cubs	NL	49.0
1960	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	47.1
1960	Chicago	White Sox	AL	45.9
1960	Washington	Senators	AL	37.5
1960	Los Angeles	Dodgers	NL	35.5
1960	Milwaukee	Braves	NL	34.9
1960	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	34.4
1960	San Francisco	Giants	NL	33.9
1960	Kansas City	A's	AL	22.9
1960	Baltimore	Orioles	AL	21.5
Average Strength of Existing Franchises:				48.7

 

            So while the Yankees reached a ridiculous level of domination, the average historical strength of a franchise actually went down for the first time, as history shifted into inactive franchises:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1960	New York	Giants	NL	29.0
1960	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	25.8
1960	Boston	Braves	NL	15.5
1960	Philadelphia	A's	AL	14.8
1960	St. Louis	Browns	AL	11.6
1960	Louisville	Colonels	NL	1.0
Colonels legally dead at conclusion of 1960 season.
Total Stakes of Active and Inactive Franchises:				850.5

 

            Let’s follow the Yankees forward for two more years.  In 1961 the Yankees won 109 games and the World Series.   This increased their historical strength to 119.1 stakes.   In 1962 they won 96 games and the World Series.   This increased their historical strength to 122.7.

            122.7 stakes is the highest point of dominance ever achieved by any major league team.    Remember the “sustenance number”, the won-lost record that would be needed to sustain a team at this level?  At 122.7, the sustenance level for the 1962 Yankees was 133-29—133 wins.   The level, in practice, could only be sustained by winning at least two World Series every five years.   The Yankees at that time had won eight World Championships in 13 years, nine in 15 years—on top of a long period of dominance before that.    Even though they won the American League again in 1963 and 1964, their level of dominance rolled back a little bit, and then receded significantly when the franchise entered a “dark period” beginning in 1965.

            The highest peak ever reached by any franchise other than the Yankees was reached by the St. Louis Cardinals in 1967—75.8.   The Cardinals, baseball’s second-strongest franchise for more than 25 years by 1967, won the World Series in 1964 and again in 1967, pushing them to that level.   Their sustenance level at that point was 98 wins.   They had to win 98 games a year, from 1967 forward, to tread water.    In 1968 they won 97.

            In the rest of baseball, franchise moves continued, with the Senators moving to Minnesota, the Braves to Atlanta and the Athletics to Oakland.    Meanwhile, baseball expanded rapidly, adding eight new teams in nine years.   What the powers of that era didn’t know—or didn’t care—was that they had created a massive “slippage” in the game’s historical stature.

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1970	New York	Yankees	AL	108.9
1970	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	74.5
1970	Detroit	Tigers	AL	59.0
1970	Cleveland	Indians	AL	54.2
1970	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	53.8
1970	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	52.0
1970	Los Angeles	Dodgers	NL	51.2
1970	Boston	Red Sox	AL	50.5
1970	Chicago	Cubs	NL	48.8
1970	Chicago	White Sox	AL	48.1
1970	Baltimore	Orioles	AL	43.9
1970	San Francisco	Giants	NL	42.7
1970	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	38.3
1970	New York	Mets	NL	34.2
1970	Minnesota	Twins	AL	30.9
1970	Atlanta	Braves	NL	24.4
1970	Washington	Senators	AL	23.6
1970	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	18.5
1970	Oakland	A's	AL	15.9
1970	Kansas City	Royals	AL	13.4
1970	California	Angels	AL	12.9
1970	Houston	Astros	NL	9.7
1970	Montreal	Expos	NL	1.7
1970	San Diego	Padres	NL	1.3
Average Strength of Active Franchise:				38.0

 

            The average historical capital of an active franchise had regressed in twenty years from 51 stakes to 38.     The Royals picked up the legacy of the Kansas City Athletics, the Brewers the legacy of the Milwaukee Braves, the Mets the legacy of the Giants, the Senators the legacy of the old Senators, but still, these were not strong franchises.   They were young, immature franchises.   There were four franchise legacies that remained as orphans:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1970	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	19.0
1970	Boston	Braves	NL	12.3
1970	Philadelphia	A's	AL	10.9
1970	St. Louis	Browns	AL	8.5
Total Strength of Active and Inactive Teams:				963.4

 

            There was one more franchise move in the early 1970s—Washington to Texas—and then this era ended, this era of hop-scotching teams.    Attendance began to increase, from that point on, almost every year.   By 1979 it was up to 20,748.   By 1990 it was 26,000 per game.

 

XII.   The Modern Era

 

There was another expansion in 1977, but whereas baseball had expanded by 50% in the 1960s—from sixteen teams to twenty-four—it has expanded by only 25% in the last 41 years (1969 to 2010).  By 1980 the Yankees were winning World Series again.  The Cardinals struggled through the 1970s, fighting with their players, but held on to second place.  The Dodgers, having fallen to 14^th among the 16 teams by abandoning one-half of their history in Brooklyn, had re-built themselves by 1980 to the sixth position, while the Royals—after only 11 years—had surpassed the Angels and the Astros by dominating the American League West.  

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1980	New York	Yankees	AL	107.3
1980	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	68.7
1980	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	66.0
1980	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	65.9
1980	Detroit	Tigers	AL	57.2
1980	Los Angeles	Dodgers	NL	55.6
1980	Boston	Red Sox	AL	54.4
1980	Cleveland	Indians	AL	52.0
1980	Baltimore	Orioles	AL	51.2
1980	Chicago	Cubs	NL	48.6
1980	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	48.5
1980	Chicago	White Sox	AL	48.2
1980	San Francisco	Giants	NL	44.7
1980	New York	Mets	NL	37.1
1980	Minnesota	Twins	AL	36.4
1980	Oakland	A's	AL	36.2
1980	Texas	Rangers	AL	29.9
1980	Atlanta	Braves	NL	29.4
1980	Kansas City	Royals	AL	26.9
1980	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	26.3
1980	California	Angels	AL	22.0
1980	Houston	Astros	NL	21.4
1980	Montreal	Expos	NL	14.1
1980	San Diego	Padres	NL	10.8
1980	Seattle	Mariners	AL	3.2
1980	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	2.8
	Average			41.0

 

Five inactive franchises hung around as memories:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1980	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	14.0
1980	Washington	Senators	AL	9.1
1980	Boston	Braves	NL	9.0
1980	Philadelphia	A's	AL	8.1
1980	St. Louis	Browns	AL	6.3
	Total:			1111.3

 

            The Yankees won more games in the 1980s than any other franchise.   They won no World Series, however, and in 1990 they had a genuinely bad season, finishing 67-95.   By 1990 the position of the Yankee franchise, while still far superior to any other, was not what it once had been:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1990	New York	Yankees	AL	94.0
1990	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	67.4
1990	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	67.3
1990	Los Angeles	Dodgers	NL	64.5
1990	Detroit	Tigers	AL	61.8
1990	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	61.3
1990	Boston	Red Sox	AL	55.4
1990	Baltimore	Orioles	AL	55.1
1990	Cleveland	Indians	AL	49.5
1990	Chicago	White Sox	AL	49.2
1990	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	48.9
1990	Chicago	Cubs	NL	48.6
1990	New York	Mets	NL	47.9
1990	Oakland	A's	AL	47.0
1990	San Francisco	Giants	NL	46.8
1990	Minnesota	Twins	AL	43.5
1990	Kansas City	Royals	AL	38.7
1990	Texas	Rangers	AL	34.0
1990	Milwaukee	Brewers	AL	33.4
1990	Atlanta	Braves	NL	32.2
1990	California	Angels	AL	30.5
1990	Houston	Astros	NL	30.1
1990	Montreal	Expos	NL	25.0
1990	San Diego	Padres	NL	21.1
1990	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	17.8
1990	Seattle	Mariners	AL	13.0
Average Strength of Active Franchises:				45.5

 

            The Dodgers were up to fourth, and the Reds, by winning the World Series in 1990, had dislodged the Cardinals from their #2 spot.   Five inactive franchises could still be said to be remembered:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1990	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	10.3
1990	Washington	Senators	AL	6.7
1990	Boston	Braves	NL	6.7
1990	Philadelphia	A's	AL	5.9
1990	St. Louis	Browns	AL	4.6
Gross Strength of all Active and Inactive Teams:				1218.2

 

By the year 2000 baseball had all thirty of its current franchises.   Perhaps the most striking thing on the chart below is how far back the Minnesota Twins had fallen:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
2000	New York	Yankees	AL	105.5
2000	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	64.3
2000	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	63.5
2000	Los Angeles	Dodgers	NL	61.9
2000	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	57.6
2000	Detroit	Tigers	AL	56.4
2000	Boston	Red Sox	AL	55.8
2000	Baltimore	Orioles	AL	54.8
2000	Cleveland	Indians	AL	52.5
2000	Chicago	White Sox	AL	51.3
2000	San Francisco	Giants	NL	49.1
2000	New York	Mets	NL	48.9
2000	Atlanta	Braves	NL	48.0
2000	Oakland	A's	AL	47.7
2000	Chicago	Cubs	NL	47.6
2000	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	47.5
2000	Minnesota	Twins	AL	47.0
2000	Kansas City	Royals	AL	40.3
2000	Texas	Rangers	AL	39.3
2000	Houston	Astros	NL	37.1
2000	Milwaukee	Brewers	NL	36.9
2000	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	35.4
2000	Anaheim	Angels	AL	34.9
2000	Montreal	Expos	NL	31.2
2000	San Diego	Padres	NL	28.5
2000	Seattle	Mariners	AL	23.4
2000	Florida	Marlins	NL	13.4
2000	Colorado	Rockies	NL	10.4
2000	Arizona	Diamondbacks	NL	5.0
2000	Tampa Bay	Devil Rays	AL	3.1
Average Historical Strength:				43.3

 

The Twins, of course, had a generally unmemorable history as the Washington Senators, and took but half of that legacy with them to Minnesota.   It’s easy to forget how terrible they were through most of the 1990s, posting eight straight losing records, and losing 90+ games every year from 1997 through 2000.   That was the era when the commissioner wanted to bury them.

            The two expansions had pushed the average historical strength of a team back down to 43 stakes.   There wasn’t much left of the abandoned franchises:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
2000	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	7.6
2000	Washington	Senators	AL	4.9
2000	Boston	Braves	NL	4.9
2000	Philadelphia	A's	AL	4.4
2000	St. Louis	Browns	AL	3.4
Total for Active and Inactive Franchises:				1320.6

 

 

XIII.  The Current Rankings

           

We come, finally, to 2010, or at least to 2009.    Obviously the Yankees remain the strongest franchise, while the Cardinals have retaken the #2 spot:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
2009	New York	Yankees	AL	103.4
2009	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	68.9

 

            The Red Sox, having won 95 games six times in the last seven years, have advanced in the last decade from eighth to third, followed by the Dodgers and the Reds:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
2009	New York	Yankees	AL	103.4
2009	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	68.9
2009	Boston	Red Sox	AL	68.2
2009	Los Angeles	Dodgers	NL	61.7
2009	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	59.7

 

            This project was provoked by an e-mail exchange with a gentleman named Pete Brewer, who says that ten years ago he and I discussed this issue, he arguing then that the Philadelphia Phillies had been historically the weakest of the sixteen original franchises.   My system doesn’t quite agree; it sees the Twins—but only the Twins—as weaker.   Wherever the Phillies were ten years ago, they’re certainly in a much happier place now:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
2009	New York	Yankees	AL	103.4
2009	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	68.9
2009	Boston	Red Sox	AL	68.2
2009	Los Angeles	Dodgers	NL	61.7
2009	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	59.7
2009	Chicago	White Sox	AL	57.5
2009	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	56.0

 

The Phillies are in seventh place among the sixteen original franchises; seventh place also among the 30.   The teams bunch up after that.   The Tigers rank eighth and the Angels rank 18^th—still second-highest among the expansion teams—but there are only six stakes separating the Tigers from the Angels:

 

	YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1	2009	New York	Yankees	AL	103.4
2	2009	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	68.9
3	2009	Boston	Red Sox	AL	68.2
4	2009	Los Angeles	Dodgers	NL	61.7
5	2009	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	59.7
6	2009	Chicago	White Sox	AL	57.5
7	2009	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	56.0
8	2009	Detroit	Tigers	AL	53.3
9	2009	Cleveland	Indians	AL	52.7
10	2009	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	52.6
11	2009	Atlanta	Braves	NL	51.7
12	2009	Oakland	A's	AL	51.5
13	2009	San Francisco	Giants	NL	51.2
14	2009	Minnesota	Twins	AL	51.0
15	2009	Baltimore	Orioles	AL	50.9
16	2009	New York	Mets	NL	50.0
17	2009	Chicago	Cubs	NL	49.7
18	2009	Los Angeles	Angels	AL	46.8

 

Those rankings in the middle of the chart could change in one year.    The once-proud Cubs are now the weakest of the sixteen originals.   We gave an accounting of the expansion teams early in the article.   We’ll add them in here:

 

	YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
1	2009	New York	Yankees	AL	103.4
2	2009	St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	68.9
3	2009	Boston	Red Sox	AL	68.2
4	2009	Los Angeles	Dodgers	NL	61.7
5	2009	Cincinnati	Reds	NL	59.7
6	2009	Chicago	White Sox	AL	57.5
7	2009	Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	56.0
8	2009	Detroit	Tigers	AL	53.3
9	2009	Cleveland	Indians	AL	52.7
10	2009	Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	52.6
11	2009	Atlanta	Braves	NL	51.7
12	2009	Oakland	A's	AL	51.5
13	2009	San Francisco	Giants	NL	51.2
14	2009	Minnesota	Twins	AL	51.0
15	2009	Baltimore	Orioles	AL	50.9
16	2009	New York	Mets	NL	50.0
17	2009	Chicago	Cubs	NL	49.7
18	2009	Los Angeles	Angels	AL	46.8
19	2009	Houston	Astros	NL	42.1
20	2009	Texas	Rangers	AL	42.1
21	2009	Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	39.6
22	2009	Milwaukee	Brewers	NL	39.1
23	2009	Kansas City	Royals	AL	38.8
24	2009	San Diego	Padres	NL	33.4
25	2009	Seattle	Mariners	AL	31.1
26	2009	Florida	Marlins	NL	27.4
27	2009	Washington	Nationals	NL	23.1
28	2009	Arizona	Diamondbacks	NL	20.3
29	2009	Colorado	Rockies	NL	19.5
30	2009	Tampa Bay	Rays	AL	11.9
	Average of Active Franchises:				46.8

 

            The average team has more history now than has been the case since 1960, just before the first expansion.    Baseball has five other teams that live on in active memory:

 

YEAR	City	Team	Lg	Stakes
2009	Montreal	Expos	NL	14.1
2009	Brooklyn	Dodgers	NL	5.8
2009	Boston	Braves	NL	3.7
2009	Philadelphia	A's	AL	3.3
2009	St. Louis	Browns	AL	2.6
Major League Total:				1434.5

 

            The most striking thing about the list above is that it still divides almost like a peanut into original and expansion teams.    This is not a necessary outcome of the method.   Some of the expansion teams have been around now for 50 years, almost, and some of them inherited the legacy of other teams, and thus did not start at zero.    There’s been plenty of time, since 1969, for expansion teams to overcome their starting deficit and emerge, by now, as mid-range teams.   They just haven’t done it.   If the Florida Marlins were to continue to play the way they have played in the last ten years for another twenty, that certainly would put them ahead of several of the “original” franchises.    If the Royals had continued to build from where they were in 1985, if the Blue Jays had continued to build from where they were in 1993, or if the Angels had started winning regularly a few years earlier, these franchises could be at 60 stakes by now, or certainly over 50.  It’s just.. .none of them have done it.

            This chart summarizes the high-stakes marks of each franchise, with their won-lost records in the seasons when this was attained. . .double-entry for the Expos/Nationals:

 

City	Team	Lg	YEAR	W	L	WPct	Stakes		Note
New York	Yankees	AL	1962	96	66	.593	122.7
St. Louis	Cardinals	NL	1967	101	60	.627	75.8
Boston	Red Sox	AL	2009	95	67	.586	68.2		Current.
Cincinnati	Reds	NL	1990	91	71	.562	67.4		The Nasty Boys, building on The Big Red Machine.
Pittsburgh	Pirates	NL	1979	98	64	.605	66.3		We are Fam-a-lee.
New York	Giants	NL	1954	97	57	.630	65.4		Mays' catch on Wertz.   High-stakes mark in San Francisco was 2004.
Los Angeles	Dodgers	NL	1988	94	67	.584	65.1		Kirk Gibson's one- legged homer.
Detroit	Tigers	AL	1988	88	74	.543	63.2		Building off 1984.
Chicago	White Sox	AL	2006	90	72	.556	58.0		Ozzie's Magic.
Baltimore	Orioles	AL	1984	85	77	.525	57.4		Building off 1983.
Chicago	Cubs	NL	1939	84	70	.545	56.1
Philadelphia	Phillies	NL	2009	93	69	.574	56.0		Current.
Cleveland	Indians	AL	1959	89	65	.578	55.8		Just before the trade of Colavito.
Philadelphia	A's	AL	1933	79	72	.523	53.9		High-stakes mark in Oakland was 2006.  Team is near this level  now.
Atlanta	Braves	NL	2007	84	78	.519	51.7
Minnesota	Twins	AL	2009	87	76	.534	51.0		Current.
New York	Mets	NL	2008	89	73	.549	50.3
Los Angeles	Angels	AL	2009	96	65	.596	46.8		Current.
Houston	Astros	NL	2009	74	88	.457	42.1		Current.
Texas	Rangers	AL	2009	87	75	.537	42.1		Current.
Kansas City	Royals	AL	1996	75	86	.466	40.4		Sustenance numbers are not high, but they haven't been meeting  them.
Toronto	Blue Jays	AL	2009	75	87	.463	39.6		Current.
Milwaukee	Brewers	NL	2009	80	82	.494	39.1		Current.
San Diego	Padres	NL	2009	75	87	.463	33.4		Current.
Montreal	Expos	NL	2004	67	95	.414	32.9
Seattle	Mariners	AL	2009	85	77	.525	31.1		Current.
Florida	Marlins	NL	2009	87	75	.537	27.4		Current.
Washington	Nationals	NL	2009	59	103	.364	23.1		Current.
Arizona	Diamondbacks	NL	2009	70	92	.432	20.3		Current.
Colorado	Rockies	NL	2009	92	70	.568	19.5		Current.
Tampa Bay	Rays	AL	2009	84	78	.519	11.9		Current.

 

            Is it possible, in your lifetime or in mine, for the Yankees to become no longer the dominant franchise of baseball history?

            Marginally.  Marginally possible.

            First, I don’t think it is possible unless you accept the proposition that recent history must count at least somewhat more than the more distant eras.    If you don’t accept that proposition, then I think it is not realistically possible.    Somebody else would have to win fifteen World Series in 25 years, and I just don’t see how that’s possible in a 30-club competition.   But I also think you would have a hard time justifying the idea that, in evaluating 2010 franchise histories, 1950 should count as much as 2009.    That’s just not how we think about teams or think about history.

            Second, I don’t think it is possible unless the Yankees, post-Steinbrenner, post-Jeter and post-Rivera, fall into a period of poor performance, like that from 1965-1975 or circa 1990, but lasting at least fifteen years.    If the Yankees continue to play even reasonably well and continue to win one World Series per decade or so, it is very unlikely that they could lose their position as history’s dominant franchise any time in the next thirty years.  I’m 60 years old.    I’m fairly sure that I won’t live long enough to see any other team develop a credible claim to be the strongest franchise in baseball history.