September 30, 2010

Baltimore Regional

Cleveland Regional

St. Louis Regional

Los Angeles Regional

Chipper 88, Zeile, No

            Did I say the blowouts were over for the tournament?  Sorry.   Chipper Jones won six categories and tied the other two, perhaps the first clean sweep of the tournament, taking Todd Zeile’s lunch money, his cell phone and two of his girlfriends in one of the most one-sided exhibitions of the event.

            Speculation turns now to whether Jones’ domination predicts success in the Elite Eight.   Jones has won three games decisively—101 to 74 over Don Hoak, 94 to 72 over Harry Steinfeldt, and 88 to 58 over Zeile, while Brooks Robinson squeaked by Jimmy Collins and Graig Nettles needed overtime to get by Bob Elliott.

            “I think he’s playing at a level that your ordinary bloke, your ordinary Ivy Olson, Albino Marquez type player is never going to be a reachin’ for unless he is playing in Colorado and the other fellow is gaspin’ for air at the tip-off” said Casey Stengel in an interview from above.  “He looks good to me, but you know your defense can come into play in a game if your offense is not playing, and I don’t think Mr. Jones is any Joe Stripp or Cletis Boyers.”   But Joe McCarthy was less convinced.   “It’s a new game every game,” said McCarthy.   “And Brooks Robinson and Graig Nettles are not Todd Zeile and Don Hoak.”   Jones will face Scott Rolen in the Regional Final.

            The two players eliminated today, Zeile and Wallach, have nearly identical triple crown statistics--.265 with 253 homers, 1,110 RBI for Zeile, .257 with 260 homers, 1,125 RBI for Wallach.   On Baseball-Reference.com, based on one of my old formulas, Zeile is listed as the most-similar hitter to Wallach, and Wallach is for Zeile.  Because Zeile walked a little, he was actually a better hitter than Wallach—but Wallach was a far better fielder, and thus a significantly better player all around.  Actually Sal Bando, eliminated yesterday, also has very similar triple-crown numbers, although Bando was a better player than either Zeile or Wallach. Zeile had only one season (1991, 21-12) equivalent in value to a 20-win contribution, although he was close to that level numerous times.

Todd Zeile—Career Won and Lost Contributions

Cey 83, Wallach 76

            Ron Cey’s advantage in plate discipline was enough to lift him over Tim Wallach in a battle of two players who were otherwise evenly matched.

            I remember in the Baseball Abstract one year, I think 1988, I pointed out the profound similarities between Brooks Robinson and Tim Wallach, who had hit .298 with 26 homers, 123 RBI in 1988.   I got a message about that from Roy Firestone, which was “My Dad says to tell you that you’re crazy.”   Baltimore fan. . .

            In both matchups today, the “marginal winning percentage” of the winning player was well over 1.000, as, in both cases, the winning player had fewer loss shares than the loser.

            Wallach was a very respected player who was fourth in the MVP voting in 1987, tenth in 1990, and won three Gold Gloves.   His career was outstanding, but clearly short of Hall of Fame standards. 

Tim Wallach—Career Won and Lost Contributions

            These charts compares the career batting stats of the players in the next round of matchups:

            In the Final Four the winner of the Baltimore regional (Brooks Robinson or Toby Harrah) will play the winner of the Cleveland regional (Santo or Nettles), and the winner of the St. Louis regional (Jones or Rolen) will play the winner of the Los Angeles region (Bell or Cey.)