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2010 NLCS - 8 Questions

By Dave Fleming
October 12, 2010
 
1. Who has the edge in starting pitching?
 
A minor controversy ensued after it was noticed that Roy Halladay’s no-hitter had a lower Game Score (94) than Tim Lincecum’s two-hit, 14-strikeout performance that same evening (96). Obviously, whoever invented Game Scores has no business writing about baseball. Or appearing on The Simpsons, for that matter.
 
The matchups in this series will be Lincecum against Halladay, Cain against Oswalt, Sanchez against Hamels, and probably Bumgarner versus Blanton in Game 4.
 
Lincecum and Cain are the big names for the Giants, but Bumgarner (3.00) and Sanchez (3.07) actually had lower ERA’s in 2010 than their more heralded counterparts in the rotation (Cain finished at 3.14, Lincecum at 3.47).
 
While ERA’s are comparable, Fielding-Independent Pitching shows the Phillies with a clear edge at pitchers 1-3:
 
SP
ERA
FIP
SP
ERA
FIP
Halladay
2.44
3.01
Lincecum
3.43
3.15
Oswalt
2.76
3.27
Cain
3.14
3.65
Hamels
3.06
3.67
Sanchez
3.07
4.00
Blanton
4.82
4.34
Bumgarner
3.00
3.66
 
Halladay and Lincecum are closer than their ERA’s suggest, but Cain and Sanchez don’t quite match up with Oswalt and Hamels.
 
(Quiz time: neither of the Phillies Roys won the ROY award. Oswalt came close…he went 13-2 and finishing second to some guy named Albert Pujols. What Roy did win the ROY award?)
 
Bumgarner has had a better year than Blanton, but Blanton has a 3.89 ERA in eight playoff games (five starts). Blanton didn’t lose a game in August or September, and he pitched well in his only start against the Giants this year (two runs allowed in 6.1 innings). Even if the Giants have an edge in Game 4, it’s a small one.
 
The Phillies have the edge in starting pitching. They also have the edge in cool nickname (H20), but Giants fans know you can’t win the NLCS without LCS…Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez.
 
2. Are the Giants that bad at hitting?
 
The Phillies scored 4.8 runs per game, third in the NL. The Giants scored just 4.3 runs per game, 9th in the NL and a half-run lower than the Phillies. In their four-game series against the Braves, the Giants scored 11 runs, and all four games were decided by a single run, and the Giants never scored more than three runs against Atlanta. Can they do better against the Phillies?
 
The Giants do their best hitting against finesse pitchers …it would be difficult to classify Halladay, Hamels or Oswalt as finesse pitchers, though there is certainly finesse to what they do.

The Giants do have success against Oswalt: in four starts versus the Giants in 2010, Oswalt is just 1-3. Of course, Oswalt posted a 3.33 ERA during those three starts, striking out 22 batters in 27 innings.
 
The Giants are simply not a great hitting team: they have no starters with a .400 on-base percentage, and only one starter (Huff) above .365.
 
3. So, the Phillies have a big advantage on offense, right?
 
Well, no. The Phillies aren’t great, either. Carlos Ruiz leads the team in ob-base percentage…he’s the only guy over .400 on the Phillies. A lot of the big names on the Phillies had disappointing seasons: Howard declined to just 31 homers, Jimmy Rollins posted an OPS+ of just 86, and Raul Ibanez was under 20 homeruns for the first time since 2004.
 
I’m not saying the Phillies offense is as bad as San Francisco’s, but I don’t think it’s dramatically better, either. The Phillies have a lot of big names, guys like Utley and Howard and Werth. But I don’t know that those guys are a whole lot better than Posey, Torres, and Huff.
 
Here are the top-six players on each team, according to total WAR:
 
Phil. WAR Leaders
WAR
Giants WAR Leaders
WAR
Jayson Werth
5.2
Aubrey Huff
5.9
Carlos Ruiz
4.4
Andres Torres
4.5
Chase Utley
4.2
Pat Burrell
3.0
Shane Victorino
3.6
Buster Posey
3.0
Ryan Howard
2.1
Juan Uribe
2.0
Placido Polanco
1.8
Freddy Sanchez
1.5
Total WAR
21.3
Total WAR
19.9
 
Aubrey Huff (incredibly) is the best non-pitcher in the series, and Chase Utley is the only great player in the series. We’re not talking about the 1927 Yankees here…the Phillies aren’t as scary as they’ve been in years past.  
 
4. Yeesh…Brad Lidge?
 
Yeah, Brad Lidge…Lidge had a solid 2010 season (27 saves, 2.96 ERA), but he’s one year removed from one of the worst seasons any closer has ever had. He’s been ineffective on short rest this season (3.68 ERA with 0- or 1-days rest), and his command has been off during short-rest appearances (15 walks in those 22 innings, against 9 walks in 23.2 innings with longer rest).
 
If I’m a Phillies fan, I’m nervous about Lidge. Especially if he is asked to make consecutive appearances without rest.
 
Brian Wilson has thrown a lot more innings than Lidge) 74 to 45), and he’s been far more effective (93 strikeouts, 21 walks, 1.81 ERA). Wilson’s made 23 appearances in 2010 on zero days rest, and has posted a 2.31 ERA during those appearances.
 
The Giants have a big edge at the closer position.
 
5. What about the rest of the bullpen? Who gets the edge there?
 
The Giants bullpen has a 2.99 ERA in 461 innings. They have averaged 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings and have a k-walk ratio of 2.20. The Phillies bullpen has 4.02 ERA in 421 innings. They have averaged 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings and have a k-walk ratio of 2.14.
 
Aside from Lidge, Madson (2.55 ERA) and Jose Contreras (3.34) have been the Phillies best arms out of the bullpen. The Giants have Sergio Romo (2.18) and Santiago Castilla (1.95) bringing the game to Wilson.
 
The Giants have a significant edge in the bullpen.
 
5. What are you looking forward to in the series?
 
Obviously, the Game 1 and (potentially) Game 5 matchup of Halladay and Lincecum. Not only do you have dueling Cy Young winners, but both pitchers are coming off tremendous starts.
 
Plus, Halladay and Lincecum are divergently iconic pitchers: Halladay’s a workhorse pitcher; a big, strong guy with good stuff who goes out every night intending to go nine. He has an obvious blue-collar-ness…I know it’s silly to say that about a millionaire athlete, but he seems very down-to-earth. As a pitcher he’s like Greg Maddux: he won’t make mistakes. You might beat him, but he won’t beat himself. He makes the most out of his talents.
 
 Lincecum is a wunderkind….he’s skinny and keeps his hair long, and he wears that dirty, sharply-bent Giants cap. He has electric stuff….he echoes Pedro Martinez in his ability to embarrass hitters. He’s, what, twenty-six this year, and he has two Cy Young Awards. 2010 qualifies as an off year for him...which means he was one of the top-ten pitchers in the league, instead of the very best.
 
6. Does it even matter? Neither team is going to beat the AL representative.
 
The Yankees are the prohibitive favorites to win the ALCS…the Yankees are rested and have Sabathia going in Game 1. The Rays and Rangers are playing a Game 5 right now, so Lee or Price won’t be ready until Game 2 or 3.
 
Both teams would be underdogs against the Yankees…I think both teams would be significant underdogs against the Yankees. Against the Rangers or Rays, the Giants or Phillies wouldn’t be favorites, but they’d at least be even.
 
7. Who are you rooting for?
 
Probably the Giants. I visited San Francisco for the first time this year and loved it. We visited in late June and the daytime high was usually about fifty degrees…it makes no sense. A friend took us to a fancy tea shop and I paid $15 dollars for a cup of tea…$15 dollars for dried leaves in hot water. But I loved it….it’s one of my five favorite North American cities (with Boston, Chicago, New York, and Montreal).
 
The Giants haven’t won a World Series in San Francisco…the Phillies have played in the last two World Series, and they won in 2008. Having no real rooting interest, I’m rooting for change.
 
At worst, we’re going to see a repeat of 2009 (Yanks/Phillies) or 2008 (Phillies/Rays). I’d like to see something new.
 
8. So who’s going to win?
 
The Phillies, obviously. In five games.
 
 
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and animated cells of Bill James drawn by sweatshop workers, both here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.
 
 

COMMENTS (18 Comments, most recent shown first)

renny
I'm curious Dave what you think about the actual outcome. I'm a die-hard Giants fan and also a die-hard fan of Mr. James. ESPN magazine had about 2 dozen "experts" pick the playoffs and all but two picked the Phillies. So what did everyone miss? Or from your point of view is the Giants' victory just a fluke?
5:59 PM Oct 25th
 
DaveFleming
Also: the Washington Monument moves .125 inches when winds exceed 30 mph. But I might be taking things too literally.

Republicans are expecting the US Capitol to move a little to the right come November...I wasn't aware that D.C. was on a fault line.
5:00 PM Oct 14th
 
DaveFleming
Aubrey Huff has had a weird career: he's a 'catch him' player: you hope your team gets him on one of his good years. He has four seasons with an OPS+ of 135 or better (2003, 2003, 2008, and 2010), but those seasons are surrounded by mediocre totals. The Giants have him on a one-year contract ($3 mil), and he'd had a terrific season for them...probably the best season of his career. He isn't in the NL MVP discussion, but probably should be. Among offensive players he ranks behind just Pujols, Votto, and Car-Go in WAR.
3:19 PM Oct 14th
 
MarisFan61
re Jimgus, "....I was unaware of the Constitution...."

If you were running for something, that would be all over YouTube.
I mean, screw context or anything..... :-)
1:51 PM Oct 14th
 
chuck
Strike that comment about "clear edge to the Phillies in game 2" now. Sanchez apparently has the lowest opponents' batting average (.175) vs the Phillies of any pitcher (with at least 30 innings). Number five on that list was Lincecum (.199).
11:01 AM Oct 14th
 
chuck
I just saw that Sanchez has been bumped up to pitch game 2. Clear edge to the Phillies there, but now their edge in game 3 is gone. I think it's a good move.
10:52 AM Oct 14th
 
jimgus
Dave,

I stand corrected.

Yes, I did mean cable cars. But I was unaware of the Constitution (is that "Old Ironsides?").

So, chalk up another one to "I heard it on X" (the radio, the internet, the TV, whatever) as being unreliable. :-)

Cordially,
Jimgus
8:40 AM Oct 14th
 
ventboys
In the context of their home parks, the Giants probably have the better offense. Philadelphia scored 772 runs, while there were 729 runs scored in their park. The Giants scored 697 runs, while 621 runs were scored in their park. This also means that the Phils were better at allowing runs than it looks on the surface. They allowed 640, the Giants 583. The Phils were significatly below the expected runs allowed (640/729) while the Giants were below but not as far below (583/621). I acually believe that they have almost equal pitching staffs, mostly because the Giants have a fairly terible defense for a contender.

So, the edges are: Offense: Giants, slightly. Defense: Phils, easily. Pitching: Even. Overall? The Phils were 772/640, the Giants 697/583. The Phils pathag record was 96-66, the Giants 95-67. I would say that it's close. As Dave said, Huff had a much better year than anyone is aware of. He was slightly better than Ryan Howard by raw numbers, and with the park adjustment it's a mismatch. Huff is the best hitter in this series.
1:19 AM Oct 14th
 
MarisFan61
The thing about either NL team being an underdog vs. the Yanks jumped out at me too. I would look for it to be close to even-money.

And for what it's worth: Dave thinks the Phils would be clear underdogs vs. the Yanks. Mike Francesa (of WFAN, per his Wednesday show) think the Phils would be clear favorites vs. the Yanks.

This is why I sort of smile whenever anybody in any field says that anything is ever "clear." :-)

P.S. to Dave: Great write-up, even if maybe you weren't necessarily right on that thing! :-)
12:08 AM Oct 14th
 
DaveFleming
Also: the only national monument that moves is the USS Constitution. Odd that you count it as SF history, as it's docked near Boston.

(Or did you mean the cable cars?)
11:32 PM Oct 13th
 
DaveFleming
To Jimgus...I love talking about city liveability...I think it's endlessly fascinating. You want to know someone: ask them where they'd choose to live if they had to pick one place for the rest of their lives.

The biggest knock against SF is the cost of housing...a shared apartment in SF is still insanely expensive...even if it's run-down or ugly, it's expensive. You can live in Chicago for half of what it costs to live in San Francisco.

Of course, with Chicago you have the winter...winter in the midwest is soul-crushingly terrible. The summers make up for it, but December-February are tough. Also: the trains in Chicago aren't great. And the traffic is always terrible.

You know what's an underrated city? Denver. Denver is sunny 340 days a year. It's close to epic skiing and hiking and rafting, and it's winters are mild..you get some some snow, but they know what to do with it. It's still an affordable city...it has a great baseball team in a new and semi-cool downtown. Denver has to be the most underrated big city in America. It's the Darrell Evans of US cities.

If I had to pick, I'd still take Boston: I love SF, but I'd miss winter and the summers there are miserable. What's that Twain line: "The worst winter I ever endured was summer in San Francisco." That's about right.

I've never been to Portland or Seattle...I'm fairly sure they'd crack the top ten. Austin is a great city. I've spent a lot of time in Dallas...I could die happy never going to Dallas again. San Antonio is slightly better, but it's still Texas.

Miami and Vegas fall into the catagory of 'nice to visit, wouldn't want to live there.' I love going to Las Vegas, but it would depress me to live there. Florida is a strange state...I think of Florida and I imagine the movie "Adaptation." It's like that, right? Disjointed and funny and deeply sad. Except for Gainesville, which is one of the circles of Hell.

I better stop...I'm going to offend someone sooner or later.
8:49 PM Oct 13th
 
DaveFleming
To Chuck's question: would you sacrifice Sanchez against Halladay to give yourself an edge in Games 2-4?

Of course not, no. For one thing, the Giants have Lincecum, who can certainly hold his own against anyone else in baseball. If you hold Lincecum to Game 2, you're either pitching him on short rest against a fully rested Halladay in Game 5, or he's pitching a Game 6 that might not happen. And what if the Phillies opt for Halladay in Game 4? Then you have Halladay starting against Sanchez and Bumgarner...you're giving the Phillies a much bigger edge in Game 1 and 4.

You gotta try to win Game 1, and Lincecum gives the Giants the best shot to win Game 1.
6:26 PM Oct 13th
 
metsfan17
Roy Sievers was the Roy who won the ROY. I know pretty much everything that happened in baseball before 1981.
4:36 PM Oct 13th
 
DaveFleming
Yeah, the $15 tea was odd...the place had a host who sat us in a weird table built on an elevated platform, that had a hole in the center where you dangled your legs. By the time he handed us the menus and we saw the prices, there was no way to gracefully exit the place without damaging what little hipster cred we had, so we decided to stick it out and enjoy the atmosphere. I had a cup of Yerba Matte, which is a South American tea that looks like grass clippings and tastes like sweetened grass clippings. It was served in a ceramic bowl with a cool silver straw...if I could've kept the silver straw it would've been worth it. There was a man playing a didgeridoo...we weren't sure if he was an employee or if he was just there because it was the kind of place where you could play the didgeridoo and no one would mind.

I think the bill for our three teas was something like $43 dollars...we're good tippers...that's actually been a small subplot in our friendship...so I guess we tipped 20% on that. Fifty bucks for three cups of tea...wow.

We were visiting our friend Katie. She is a transplant from Michigan, and any time we saw something vaguely hipsterish or odd, she'd look at it impassively and tell us, "That's so SF." It became a catchphrase for our time there: the guy in Berkley selling Pro-Communist bumper stickers: so SF.

The $15 dollar tea was like that: sort of ridiculous at the time, and slightly embarassing, but also something that could never exist in, say, Boston or Chicago. Certianly, it was the most memorable cup of tea I've ever had. It was so SF.
3:58 PM Oct 13th
 
jimgus
Well, this is an amittedly biased opinion, but I routinely profess that San Francisco is the best city on the world (and I've been to a few - for more than a day or two).

Here's what makes no sense: In the old days, you would go to an afternoon game at Candlestick in July... and the ushers would be wearing long, parka-like coats (for a reason). On the other hand, you would return in late October for a 49ers game and several of the fans would be in short-sleeved shirts. It's just crazy weather... but we like to think that it's one of those things that makes the city interesting.

S.F. trivia: What is the only national Monument that moves?

Great article, Dave (so was the ALDS one)!

Cordially,
Jimgus
2:48 PM Oct 13th
 
PeteDecour
The Phillies are not significant underdogs or underdogs either, outside of your earlobes, dave. And as you should know, what happened in the season is not very meaningful in playoffs so your oblations to Huff having a career year and spiting of Howard is just odd. Utley is great, but so is Howard. And Rollins is the best Phillies SS ever, ahead of Bancroft and Bowa.
12:53 PM Oct 13th
 
3for3
I doubt the Phils would be significant underdogs against the Yankees. They are more of a favorite to win the Series now, and I suspect less of a favorite in the LCS. They do have home field, too.
11:53 AM Oct 13th
 
chuck
A couple things: Oswalt was 1-0 vs SF as a Phillie this year. 0-3 when he pitched for the Astros, a team with a bad defense and anemic offense at the time. In those three starts he gave up 7 er in 20 ip. A 3.15 e.r.a. with a bad defense is pretty darn good. In all four starts he had a 20 to 3 k/bb ratio, giving up 3 hr's, in 27 ip.

If you were the Giants' manager, would you consider offering up Sanchez' 4.00 FIP as a sacrifice to Halladay in game 1, in order to then have the edge with Lincecum/Cain/Bumgarner over Oswalt/Hamels/Blanton in the next 3 games?

Also, you need some different friends in San Francisco. $15 for a cup of tea is outrageous anywhere. Next time you go, though, or are in Seattle, try and get to Teatro Zinzanni.
11:36 AM Oct 13th
 
 
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