1. Who has the edge in starting pitching?
A minor controversy ensued after it was noticed that Roy Halladay’s no-hitter had a lower Game Score (94) than Tim Lincecum’s two-hit, 14-strikeout performance that same evening (96). Obviously, whoever invented Game Scores has no business writing about baseball. Or appearing on The Simpsons, for that matter.
The matchups in this series will be Lincecum against Halladay, Cain against Oswalt, Sanchez against Hamels, and probably Bumgarner versus Blanton in Game 4.
Lincecum and Cain are the big names for the Giants, but Bumgarner (3.00) and Sanchez (3.07) actually had lower ERA’s in 2010 than their more heralded counterparts in the rotation (Cain finished at 3.14, Lincecum at 3.47).
While ERA’s are comparable, Fielding-Independent Pitching shows the Phillies with a clear edge at pitchers 1-3:
SP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
Halladay
|
2.44
|
3.01
|
Lincecum
|
3.43
|
3.15
|
Oswalt
|
2.76
|
3.27
|
Cain
|
3.14
|
3.65
|
Hamels
|
3.06
|
3.67
|
Sanchez
|
3.07
|
4.00
|
Blanton
|
4.82
|
4.34
|
Bumgarner
|
3.00
|
3.66
|
Halladay and Lincecum are closer than their ERA’s suggest, but Cain and Sanchez don’t quite match up with Oswalt and Hamels.
(Quiz time: neither of the Phillies Roys won the ROY award. Oswalt came close…he went 13-2 and finishing second to some guy named Albert Pujols. What Roy did win the ROY award?)
Bumgarner has had a better year than Blanton, but Blanton has a 3.89 ERA in eight playoff games (five starts). Blanton didn’t lose a game in August or September, and he pitched well in his only start against the Giants this year (two runs allowed in 6.1 innings). Even if the Giants have an edge in Game 4, it’s a small one.
The Phillies have the edge in starting pitching. They also have the edge in cool nickname (H20), but Giants fans know you can’t win the NLCS without LCS…Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez.
2. Are the Giants that bad at hitting?
The Phillies scored 4.8 runs per game, third in the NL. The Giants scored just 4.3 runs per game, 9th in the NL and a half-run lower than the Phillies. In their four-game series against the Braves, the Giants scored 11 runs, and all four games were decided by a single run, and the Giants never scored more than three runs against Atlanta. Can they do better against the Phillies?
The Giants do their best hitting against finesse pitchers …it would be difficult to classify Halladay, Hamels or Oswalt as finesse pitchers, though there is certainly finesse to what they do.
The Giants do have success against Oswalt: in four starts versus the Giants in 2010, Oswalt is just 1-3. Of course, Oswalt posted a 3.33 ERA during those three starts, striking out 22 batters in 27 innings.
The Giants are simply not a great hitting team: they have no starters with a .400 on-base percentage, and only one starter (Huff) above .365.
3. So, the Phillies have a big advantage on offense, right?
Well, no. The Phillies aren’t great, either. Carlos Ruiz leads the team in ob-base percentage…he’s the only guy over .400 on the Phillies. A lot of the big names on the Phillies had disappointing seasons: Howard declined to just 31 homers, Jimmy Rollins posted an OPS+ of just 86, and Raul Ibanez was under 20 homeruns for the first time since 2004.
I’m not saying the Phillies offense is as bad as San Francisco’s, but I don’t think it’s dramatically better, either. The Phillies have a lot of big names, guys like Utley and Howard and Werth. But I don’t know that those guys are a whole lot better than Posey, Torres, and Huff.
Here are the top-six players on each team, according to total WAR:
Phil. WAR Leaders
|
WAR
|
Giants WAR Leaders
|
WAR
|
Jayson Werth
|
5.2
|
Aubrey Huff
|
5.9
|
Carlos Ruiz
|
4.4
|
Andres Torres
|
4.5
|
Chase Utley
|
4.2
|
Pat Burrell
|
3.0
|
Shane Victorino
|
3.6
|
Buster Posey
|
3.0
|
Ryan Howard
|
2.1
|
Juan Uribe
|
2.0
|
Placido Polanco
|
1.8
|
Freddy Sanchez
|
1.5
|
Total WAR
|
21.3
|
Total WAR
|
19.9
|
Aubrey Huff (incredibly) is the best non-pitcher in the series, and Chase Utley is the only great player in the series. We’re not talking about the 1927 Yankees here…the Phillies aren’t as scary as they’ve been in years past.
4. Yeesh…Brad Lidge?
Yeah, Brad Lidge…Lidge had a solid 2010 season (27 saves, 2.96 ERA), but he’s one year removed from one of the worst seasons any closer has ever had. He’s been ineffective on short rest this season (3.68 ERA with 0- or 1-days rest), and his command has been off during short-rest appearances (15 walks in those 22 innings, against 9 walks in 23.2 innings with longer rest).
If I’m a Phillies fan, I’m nervous about Lidge. Especially if he is asked to make consecutive appearances without rest.
Brian Wilson has thrown a lot more innings than Lidge) 74 to 45), and he’s been far more effective (93 strikeouts, 21 walks, 1.81 ERA). Wilson’s made 23 appearances in 2010 on zero days rest, and has posted a 2.31 ERA during those appearances.
The Giants have a big edge at the closer position.
5. What about the rest of the bullpen? Who gets the edge there?
The Giants bullpen has a 2.99 ERA in 461 innings. They have averaged 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings and have a k-walk ratio of 2.20. The Phillies bullpen has 4.02 ERA in 421 innings. They have averaged 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings and have a k-walk ratio of 2.14.
Aside from Lidge, Madson (2.55 ERA) and Jose Contreras (3.34) have been the Phillies best arms out of the bullpen. The Giants have Sergio Romo (2.18) and Santiago Castilla (1.95) bringing the game to Wilson.
The Giants have a significant edge in the bullpen.
5. What are you looking forward to in the series?
Obviously, the Game 1 and (potentially) Game 5 matchup of Halladay and Lincecum. Not only do you have dueling Cy Young winners, but both pitchers are coming off tremendous starts.
Plus, Halladay and Lincecum are divergently iconic pitchers: Halladay’s a workhorse pitcher; a big, strong guy with good stuff who goes out every night intending to go nine. He has an obvious blue-collar-ness…I know it’s silly to say that about a millionaire athlete, but he seems very down-to-earth. As a pitcher he’s like Greg Maddux: he won’t make mistakes. You might beat him, but he won’t beat himself. He makes the most out of his talents.
Lincecum is a wunderkind….he’s skinny and keeps his hair long, and he wears that dirty, sharply-bent Giants cap. He has electric stuff….he echoes Pedro Martinez in his ability to embarrass hitters. He’s, what, twenty-six this year, and he has two Cy Young Awards. 2010 qualifies as an off year for him...which means he was one of the top-ten pitchers in the league, instead of the very best.
6. Does it even matter? Neither team is going to beat the AL representative.
The Yankees are the prohibitive favorites to win the ALCS…the Yankees are rested and have Sabathia going in Game 1. The Rays and Rangers are playing a Game 5 right now, so Lee or Price won’t be ready until Game 2 or 3.
Both teams would be underdogs against the Yankees…I think both teams would be significant underdogs against the Yankees. Against the Rangers or Rays, the Giants or Phillies wouldn’t be favorites, but they’d at least be even.
7. Who are you rooting for?
Probably the Giants. I visited San Francisco for the first time this year and loved it. We visited in late June and the daytime high was usually about fifty degrees…it makes no sense. A friend took us to a fancy tea shop and I paid $15 dollars for a cup of tea…$15 dollars for dried leaves in hot water. But I loved it….it’s one of my five favorite North American cities (with Boston, Chicago, New York, and Montreal).
The Giants haven’t won a World Series in San Francisco…the Phillies have played in the last two World Series, and they won in 2008. Having no real rooting interest, I’m rooting for change.
At worst, we’re going to see a repeat of 2009 (Yanks/Phillies) or 2008 (Phillies/Rays). I’d like to see something new.
8. So who’s going to win?
The Phillies, obviously. In five games.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and animated cells of Bill James drawn by sweatshop workers, both here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.