First, the results:
Name
|
Total Votes
|
Percentage
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
57
|
95%
|
Edgar Martinez
|
44
|
73%
|
Lee Smith
|
24
|
40%
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
20
|
33%
|
Fred McGriff
|
15
|
25%
|
Larry Walker
|
14
|
23%
|
Jack Morris
|
13
|
22%
|
Kevin Brown
|
13
|
22%
|
Andre Dawson
|
11
|
18%
|
Dale Murphy
|
9
|
15%
|
Don Mattingly
|
7
|
12%
|
Jim Rice
|
6
|
10%
|
Dave Parker
|
4
|
7%
|
John Olerud
|
3
|
5%
|
Harold Baines
|
1
|
2%
|
John Franco
|
1
|
2%
|
Juan Gonzalez
|
0
|
0%
|
Tino Martinez
|
0
|
0%
|
Raul Mondesi
|
0
|
0%
|
Al Leiter
|
0
|
0%
|
Carlos Baerga
|
0
|
0%
|
Bret Boone
|
0
|
0%
|
Marquis Grissom
|
0
|
0%
|
Lenny Harris
|
0
|
0%
|
Bobby Higginson
|
0
|
0%
|
Charles Johnson
|
0
|
0%
|
Kirk Reuters
|
0
|
0%
|
Benito Santiago
|
0
|
0%
|
B.J. Surhoff
|
0
|
0%
|
Jeff Bagwell was elected to our version of the Hall of Fame. He joins the 2009 class of Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Bert Blyleven, and Alan Trammell, and 2010 inductees Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, and Mark McGwire. His certificate of merit and a coupon good for half-off a Dairy Queen Blizzard is being airmailed to him as we speak.
Edgar Martinez fell just short. Actually, he missed being elected by one vote…I’m sure he’s not nearly as broken hearted about this as I am.
Lee Smith continues to get lukewarm support from the BJOL voters, while Rafael Palmeiro and Larry Walker surround Fred McGriff as candidates who are getting about a fourth of the votes. Jack Morris and Kevin Brown are neck-and-neck among BJOL voters.
Two actual Hall-of-Famers, Jim Rice and Andre Dawson, failed to gain traction with BJOL voters, with Dawson netting 18% of the vote and Rice getting 10%. Harold Baines, after two years of valiantly staying alive, will fall off both ballots next year. John Olerud fell off the BBWAA ballot, but he
manages to hang on ours for another vote.
Comparing BJOL and the BBWAA
There was a lot of agreement between the BJOL and the BBWAA ballots this year:
Player
|
BJOL
|
BBWAA
|
Difference
|
Name
|
Percentage
|
Percentage
|
in Percentages
|
Dave Parker
|
7%
|
15%
|
8%
|
Fred McGriff
|
25%
|
18%
|
7%
|
Lee Smith
|
40%
|
45%
|
5%
|
Juan Gonzalez
|
0%
|
5%
|
5%
|
John Olerud
|
5%
|
1%
|
4%
|
Larry Walker
|
23%
|
20%
|
3%
|
Harold Baines
|
2%
|
4.8%
|
3%
|
John Franco
|
2%
|
4.6%
|
3%
|
Dale Murphy
|
15%
|
13%
|
2%
|
Don Mattingly
|
12%
|
14%
|
2%
|
Tino Martinez
|
0%
|
1%
|
1%
|
Raul Mondesi
|
0%
|
1%
|
1%
|
Al Leiter
|
0%
|
1%
|
1%
|
Carlos Baerga
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Bret Boone
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Marquis Grissom
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Lenny Harris
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Bobby Higginson
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Charles Johnson
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Kirk Reuters
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Benito Santiago
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
B.J. Surhoff
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Both groups agreed that Todd Zeile and Lenny Harris are not Hall-of-Fame players, which goes to show that deep down there isn’t a tremendous difference between the opinions of BJOL readers and the Hall-of-Fame voters of the BBWAA.
Different players survived the 5% hatchet on different ballots: Juan Gonzalez netted 5.2% of votes from the BBWAA, which means he stays on their ballot for another year, but falls off ours. John Olerud will not stay on the BBWAA ballot, but he’s staying on the BJOL ballot, at least for one more year. Harold Baines and John Franco came valiantly close to staying on the BBWAA ballot, but they don’t round up decimals at Copperstown.
Both groups will continue to argue the cases of Lee Smith, Dave Parker, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, and Donnie Baseball.
Now, the players we couldn’t disagree on, starting with the players favored by the BBWAA:
Player
|
BJOL
|
BBWAA
|
Difference
|
Name
|
Percentage
|
Percentage
|
in Percentages
|
Jim Rice
|
10%
|
76%
|
66%
|
Andre Dawson
|
18%
|
78%
|
60%
|
Jack Morris
|
22%
|
54%
|
32%
|
For Rice and Dawson, I used the percentages they got from the BBWAA last year. There is still a sizeable gap in opinion between the BBWAA voters and the BJOL voters.
I don’t know how long we should keep Jim Rice on the ballot. I suppose that he’ll drop off when the big names come down the pike in 2013, but so long as he gets 10%, I think he’s worth having.
Andre Dawson….I voted for Dawson this year, after not voting for him in the past. I don’t think he’s a better player than Larry Walker, but he is a better than Dale Murphy or Dave Parker or Jim Rice.
Jack Morris continues to get robust support from the BBWAA, landing on more than half the ballots cast this year. One suspects that voters are starting to fold their defenses on Morris. Now that Blyleven is in, I wouldn’t be surprised if Morris makes it in next year, on a swell of support from pro-win, anti-WAR voters.
Here are the players favored by the BJOL, but disliked by the BBWAA:
Player
|
BJOL
|
BBWAA
|
Difference
|
Name
|
Percentage
|
Percentage
|
in Percentages
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
95%
|
42%
|
53%
|
Edgar Martinez
|
73%
|
33%
|
40%
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
33%
|
11%
|
22%
|
Kevin Brown
|
22%
|
2%
|
20%
|
I think Joe Posnanski has it exactly right on Bagwell: there is no evidence that Bagwell used steroids: his name comes up in none of the leaks that came out during those years, and he himself has gone to great lengths to say that he didn’t use steroids. As a) there is no evidence he used, and b) he says he didn’t use, I think the only reasonable course of action is to take his word on it.
I think he wasn’t elected by the BBWAA because they think he used steroids. I mean, what other reason could there possibly be for not electing him?
So the 58% of BBWAA writers who didn’t vote for Bagwell aren’t going to vote for anyone of that era, right? Because if they’re going to play the ‘guilt-by-association’ card on Bagwell, they damned well better be consistent with Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux and Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera when they show up on the ballot.
I get that some people will not vote for Barry Bonds...personally, I think it’s silly to not vote for him, but there is that stupid morality clause, and Bonds was an obvious steroid user. I’d vote for him, but I think it’s reasonable to not vote for him.
But Bagwell? There is NO proof. There is NO evidence. There is only suspicion. There is only presumption. I think it’s dangerous to make presumptions about other people without facts, and I think it’s a shame that the 58% of the BBWAA writers who didn’t vote for Bagwell were so quick to do exactly that.
Edgar…Edgar lost a little ground with the BBWAA, (36 percent to 32 percent) but he’s gaining with us.
Sooner or later we’ll have a DH in the real Hall-of-Fame. It is going to happen, in the same way that relief pitchers were elected to the Hall of Fame. It is a position that one major league allows players to play, and eventually one of those players will be elected.
Right now, Edgar Martinez is the best Designated Hitter of All-Time. He is #1. Actually, he’s about a million miles ahead of the pack. I think, as we’re going to elect a DH sooner or later, we might as well start with the very best.
Rafael Palmeiro got more support from the BJOL readers than the BBWAA voters. I didn’t vote for Rafael, not because he used steroids, but because I think his numbers (unlike Bagwell’s) are a reflection of a bloated offensive era.
There is no denying the Raffy has staggeringcareer numbers: 569 homeruns AND 3020 hits AND 1835 runs batted in are really tough to ignore. But he led the league in exactly three categories: runs scored (once), doubles (once) and hits (once). He never won an MVP, didn’t deserve at least one of the Gold Gloves he won, and was never considered one of the game’s best players. Like Harold Baines, he was really good for a really long time, but I don’t know that he was ever great.
That said, I could be swayed to vote for him.
Finally, Kevin Brown.
Kevin Brown fell off the BBWAA ballot, getting just 12 votes from the 581 writers.
This was a colossal mistake. Whatever Kevin Brown’s personality, he deserved more consideration than he received. The writers, by-and-large, ignored him: they ignored a pitcher whose career numbers are very similar to the numbers to the numbers of Don Drysdale, Catfish Hunter, and Curt Schilling. According to Pitching WAR, Brown is the 34th best pitcher in baseball history, just behind Bob Feller and Don Drysdale and just ahead of Carl Hubbell and Juan Marichal.
So: Bagwell is elected, and Edgar came tantalizingly close. See you again next year.
BJOL HOF Inductees:
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
Rickey Henderson
|
Roberto Alomar
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
Tim Raines
|
Barry Larkin
|
Bert Blyleven
|
Mark McGwire
|
Alan Trammell
|
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com. He hopes that Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar won’t forget about our (fake) Hall, now that they’re in the real one.