Putting Fielding Percentages on a Common Scale
There is a unique problem with reading fielding percentages, which is the multiplicity of standards. We interpret baseball statistics in casual conversation by the use of standards—he’s a 17-game winner with a 3.80 ERA, or he’s a .270 hitter with 80-90 RBI a year. The existence of universally understood standards makes sense of all of the numbers, not merely those that meet or exceed the standard.
Fielding percentages are different, because
a) there are no magic numbers, and
b) the standards are so different from position to position that nobody can carry a full set of them around in his head.
A .988 fielding percentage for an outfielder. . .is that good or bad? It’s tremendous for a shortstop, outstanding for a second baseman, bad for a first baseman. ..what is it for a catcher? .964 for a third baseman in the 1950s. ..good or bad? No peeking. .978 for a shortstop in 2007. ..above average or below? No peeking.
Not only are there different standards for each position, but these standards have changed tremendously over time. Yes, it is true that there are different expectations for hitters at different positions; yes, it is true that standards of batting and pitching excellence change somewhat over time. Not to the same level. 200 strikeouts for a pitcher was outstanding in 1940, it was outstanding in 1950, it was outstanding in 1960, it is outstanding today. There was a period in the 1960s when it was a little less outstanding. 90 RBI was a middle-of-the-order hitter in 1940; it’s a middle-of-the-order hitter today. Seventeen wins was a quality starting pitcher in 1930 or 1960 or 2007. ERA norms may be 3.70 in one decade and 4.70 in another, but they’re not 1.70 or 6.70.
There are some people who have a pretty good grasp on fielding percentages, of course, and there are many people who are very good baseball fans and have been for many years and can tell you who won the NL batting title in 1970 and the American League MVP Award in 1984, but who can’t tell you whether a .951 fielding percentage for a shortstop will get you bronzed or get you benched. It’s very hard to compare one to another. One might know that .986 is not a good fielding percentage for a first baseman and .941 is not a good fielding percentage for a shortstop, but. . .which is worse? One might know that .997 is a good fielding percentage for a catcher and .986 is good for a second baseman, but which is better?
I have a method to deal with this problem. . .it’s actually a very good method and I’ve had it for a long time, but I just realized (because of a letter in “Hey, Bill”) that I had never explained it to the public. The method scores everyone on a zero-to-one scale with an average player at .500, good fielders over .500 and poor fielders under .500. It enables you to easily and meaningfully combine fielding percentages from different positions so that if a player played 400 games at first base in his career, 350 at first base, 275 in the outfield and 4 at second base, you can give him a career fielding percentage which is a meaningful number to the extent that fielding percentage is a meaningful concept. You can combine all the positions into one—or, if you prefer, you can get a separate number for each position.
This is how it works.
A player’s expected errors are the number of errors he would have had if he had had an average fielding percentage at the position, and the number of total chances that he actually had.
We will call his expected errors X, and his actual errors E.
The formula is
2X – E
-------------------------
2X
That’s all.
Let’s take Bill Russell, Dodger shortstop of the 1970s/1980s, famous for being not the best shortstop ever. In 1974 Russell made 39 errors, and fielded .946 at shortstop. The fielding percentage for National League shortstops in 1974 was .961, and Russell had 724 fielding chances. He thus had 28.02 expected errors. He exceeded his expected errors by 10.98, resulting in a Universal Fielding Percentage Score of .304 for the season—well below average:
(56.04 – 39) / 56.04 = .304
In his career as a shortstop Russell was below average more often than above average, although he was rarely as error-prone as he was in 1974. He was actually over .500—over the league average—in both 1973 and 1975, and in three other seasons. In his career he had 339 errors as a shortstop, with 301.53 expected errors—a Fielding Percentage Score of .438:
(603.06 – 339) / 603.06 = .438
He also played 62 games in his career at second base, with a score there of .212, and 299 games in the outfield, with a score of .545. He had one fielding chance at third base, and handled that cleanly for a score of 1.000. Adding it up, he has a Universal Fielding Percentage Score of .436:
Shortstop Expected Errors 301.53 Actual Errors 339
Second Base Expected Errors 5.71 Actual Errors 9
Outfield Expected Errors 7.69 Actual Errors 7
Third Base Expected Errors .05 Actual Errors 0
Total Expected Errors 314.98 Actual Errors 355
Universal Fielding Percentage Score .436
For players with limited playing time, you might occasionally get numbers less than zero. I would just enter them as zero, but I guess I’ll leave that up to you.
Here’s a Whitman’s Sample of Universal Fielding Percentage Scores for some other players:
Omar Vizquel at shortstop .713
(Never played any other position)
Brooks Robinson at third base .696
Brooks Robinson overall .695
Ozzie Smith at shortstop .684
(Never played any other position)
Al Kaline in the outfield .652
Al Kaline, all positions .640
Alan Trammell as a shortstop .645
Alan Trammell, all positions .639
Sherm Lollar at catcher .630
Sherm Lollar overall .634
Orlando Cabrera at shortstop .638
Orlando Cabrera all positions .632
Bill Freehan at catcher .613
Bill Freehan at first base .642
Bill Freehan overall .616
Bobby Grich at second base .619
Bobby Grich at shortstop .408
Bobby Grich all positions .599
Stan Hack at third base .598
Stan Hack overall .597
Bill Dickey at catcher .570
(Never played any other position)
Juan Uribe at shortstop .568
Juan Uribe all positions .560
Robin Yount at shortstop .506
Robin Yount in the outfield .742
Robin Yount all positions .549
Ray Schalk at catcher .548
(Never played any other position)
Derek Jeter at shortstop .548
(Has not played another position)
Jim Hegan at catcher .535
(Never played any other position)
Travis Jackson at shortstop .531
Travis Jackson at third base .569
Travis Jackson all positions .535
Darrell Porter at catcher .531
Darrell Porter overall .531
Gabby Hartnett at catcher .521
Gabby Hartnett overall .518
Bobby Abreu in the outfield .516
(Has not played another position)
Ernie Lombardi at catcher .505
(Never played any other position)
Bob Elliott at third base .496
Bob Elliott overall .499
Bill Russell at shortstop .438
Bill Russell in the outfield .545
Bill Russell all positions .436
Wally Schang at catcher .464
Wally Schang in the outfield .245
Wally Schang all positions .434
Rod Carew at second base .392
Rod Carew at first base .455
Rod Carew all positions .421
Roberto Clemente in the outfielder .414
Roberto Clemente, all positions .407
Reggie Jackson in the outfield .166
(Never played any other position)
George Bell in the outfield .053
George Bell all positions .057