Our system correctly predicted 7 of the 12 games played on Sunday, making us 8 and 5 on the season (1-0 before Sunday).  

            Six of the games not only matched out predicted outcome, but came within a few points of matching the predicted score.

            Carolina, predicted to beat Atlanta by 11, beat them by 15.

            New Orleans, predicted to beat San Francisco by 13, beat them by 14.

            Buffalo, predicted to beat St. Louis by 19, beat them by 17.

            Tampa Bay, predicted to beat Green Bay by 7, beat them by 9.

            Tennessee, predicted to beat Minnesota by 11, beat them by 13.

            San Diego, predicted to beat Oakland by 10, did beat them by 10. 

            Thus, on half of the day’s games, the rankings played out.   One other game matched the predicted outcome, but was not close on the score.   We had Jacksonville beating Houston by 12.   They beat them, but only by 3.

             The other five games were upsets according to our method.  

            Philadelphia, predicted to beat Chicago by half a point, lost to them by four points because the Eagles stupidly tried to run up the middle four times, rather than running wide or throwing to the flat just once. 

            Dallas, predicted to beat Washington by 9, lost to them by 2, an 11-point discrepancy. 

            Cincinnati, predicted to beat Cleveland by 7, lost to them by 8—a 15-point discrepancy.

            The Jets, predicted to lose to Arizona by 15, beat them by 21—a 36-point discrepancy.   This was the first outcome of the season to argue on behalf of the strength of that division.

            Denver, predicted to beat Kansas City by 23, lost to them by 14, a 37-point discrepancy. 

            These are our updated rankings: 

             Kansas City improved their rating by 13 points with their big upset of Denver, and the Jets improved by 13 points by thrashing Arizona.   Since two of New England’s three games are against Kansas City and the Jets, New England was pushed forward by almost as much—11 points.   Without playing.   Imagine what they could have done if they had actually played. 

            We still see Dallas as the strongest team in football, despite their loss at Washington.   You lose to a good team on the road. . .well, probably nobody’s going 16-0.   Denver, on the other hand, lost to a bad team on the road, which is somewhat different.  

            Before Sunday the two Missouri teams were virtually deadlocked for the position of being the worst team in football.   St. Louis played up to form, dropped them well behind.   It’s a long season, and I’m sure the Rams will have their moments. 

            We had some comment here last week on the wide range of rankings.   Due mostly the Kansas City/Denver game, the standard deviation of the rankings in the AFC was cut in half, dropping from 11.0 to 5.7.   In the NFC, where it was more a case that the good teams were playing other good teams, the standard deviation remains almost the same, dropping from 11.4 to 10.9. 

            Monday Night’s Baltimore at Pittsburgh game is essentially a tossup, based on previous scores.    Since we have to call it one way or the other, we’re saying Pittsburgh.