The Monday night game went as we had predicted that it would. We had Baltimore a little less than two points better than Pittsburgh; since Pittsburgh was the home team that made the Steelers the favorites by less than a point. They won in overtime, 23-20. This had minimal impact on the rankings. Baltimore’s loss dropped them from just ahead of San Diego to just behind; otherwise everybody is where they were Monday morning, except for a couple of coaches.
|
|
AFC
|
|
|
NFC
|
|
|
|
|
Team
|
Rnk
|
|
Team
|
Rnk
|
|
|
|
Tennessee
|
110.6
|
|
Dallas
|
112.4
|
|
|
|
San Diego
|
107.3
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
110.2
|
|
|
|
Baltimore
|
106.9
|
|
Philadelphia
|
110.0
|
|
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
106.6
|
|
Chicago
|
109.7
|
|
|
|
Denver
|
103.1
|
|
Washington
|
107.6
|
|
|
|
Buffalo
|
100.6
|
|
Carolina
|
106.8
|
|
|
|
Jacksonville
|
99.0
|
|
New Orleans
|
106.3
|
|
|
|
NY Jets
|
98.9
|
|
NY Giants
|
105.7
|
|
|
|
Indianapolis
|
97.9
|
|
Green Bay
|
103.4
|
|
|
|
Cleveland
|
97.6
|
|
Minnesota
|
101.8
|
|
|
|
Miami
|
97.0
|
|
Arizona
|
101.0
|
|
|
|
Cincinnati
|
96.5
|
|
Atlanta
|
98.5
|
|
|
|
Oakland
|
94.2
|
|
San Francisco
|
93.3
|
|
|
|
Houston
|
93.1
|
|
Seattle
|
88.0
|
|
|
|
New England
|
91.2
|
|
Detroit
|
81.1
|
|
|
|
Kansas City
|
88.7
|
|
St. Louis
|
75.1
|
|
Our system has now picked the winner in 9 of 14 games.
The games this Sunday:
Tennessee at Baltimore Tennessee by 2
Among the many things our system doesn’t know is that Baltimore played on Monday, thus has a short week to prepare. The system could easily have picked Baltimore in this game, which would have made me uncomfortable with the short week, but fortunately didn’t.
Kansas City at Carolina Panthers by 15
Would be 20, but we trim the margin when the game figures to be lopsided.
Chicago at Detroit Bears by 18
Would be 26. The Lions could play up due to the long-overdue firing of Matt Millen. . .players trying to impress the new decision makers. But that, too, is on the list of things our system doesn’t know anything about.
Atlanta at Green Bay Packers by 7
Indianapolis at Houston Colts by 3
San Diego at Miami Chargers by 8
Miami, with a big victory over New England followed by a bye week, certainly has the look of a team that should beat the book.
Seattle at New York Giants Giants by 15
We may be undervaluing the Giants, but not by enough to get the Seahawks close.
Washington at Philadelphia Eagles by 4
Hey, Reid. People who try to run up the middle four times on fourth and goal are wimps, weenies, morons and losers. No more of that. The idea is to win, not to show us how tough you are.
Tampa Bay at Denver Tampa Bay by 5
Obviously we have a huge chance to be wrong here. Denver’s ranking dropped like the Dow after they tanked in KC last week, but they’re probably better than we have them, plus they’re at home and they’re PO’d. And I’m not certain Tampa Bay is really that good. But. .. . .’swhat our system gives us.
Buffalo at Arizona Arizona by 2
Intuitively, I’d pick Buffalo, but obviously the Bills are due for a loss.
Cincinnati at Dallas ; Dallas by 14
New England at San Francisco 49ers by 4
Perhaps the most interesting game of the week. Some of you think I have New England under-rated by. . ..oh, 25 or 30 points. It could be. But there are no excuses this week. Joe Montana has retired. If the Pats don’t win this one, they’re not anywhere near the team they were last year.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville Steelers by 6