Consider the major statistical benchmarks:
Twenty-four players have hit 500 homeruns in baseball history. Twenty-seven players have collected 3000 hits. Seventeen batters have 1800 RBI’s. More than two hundred hitters have career batting averages over .300. Forty-four batters have career batting averages over .325.
How about pitchers? Twenty-two pitchers have won 300 games, while twenty-one pitchers have saved 300 games. Sixteen pitchers have notched 3000 strikeouts. Career ERA under 2.50? Forty-three pitchers. Career ERA+ better than 140? Sixteen.
But 80 percent? That’s a rare feat. Only thirteen players in history can boast a success rate that high.
The Stolen Base in Sabermetrics
Stealing a base is a dangerous proposition. Each at-bat is, centrally, a win or lose scenario: either the pitcher ‘wins’ by retiring the batter, or the batter ‘wins’ by reaching base safely. The pitcher usually wins this battle: last year major league hitters reached (at least) first base at a .333 clip, or one-third of the time.
In deciding to steal, a man on first (or second, or third) is saying, “Against the odds, the defense failed to get me out. I think I’ll give them another chance.”
To be sure, the odds now favor the runner: last year major league base stealers were successful in 73% of their attempts. But consider, for a moment, those poor 27% who squandered their odds-defying journey to first by getting tossed out at second.
Still, the numbers have been crunched and the conclusion in sabermetric circles is clear: the risk of losing the base runner usually outweights the potential gain of that extra base. Excepting certain situations (see 2004 ALCS, Game 4), it isn’t worth it to try to steal a base.
Unless you’re really good at it.
The 80%-ers
These are the thirteen players with 300 or more stolen bases who had a success rate of 80% of higher (not counting players with incomplete or missing caught stealing totals):
|
SB%
|
SB
|
CS
|
3B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Rickey Henderson
|
80
|
1406
|
335
|
66
|
297
|
.279
|
.401
|
.419
|
Tim Raines
|
84
|
808
|
146
|
113
|
170
|
.294
|
.385
|
.425
|
Vince Coleman
|
80
|
752
|
177
|
89
|
28
|
.264
|
.324
|
.345
|
Joe Morgan
|
80
|
689
|
162
|
96
|
268
|
.271
|
.392
|
.427
|
Willie Wilson
|
83
|
668
|
134
|
147
|
41
|
.285
|
.326
|
.376
|
Davey Lopes
|
83
|
557
|
114
|
50
|
155
|
.263
|
.349
|
.388
|
Roberto Alomar
|
80
|
474
|
114
|
80
|
210
|
.300
|
.371
|
.443
|
Barry Larkin
|
83
|
379
|
77
|
76
|
198
|
.295
|
.371
|
.444
|
Tony Womack
|
83
|
363
|
74
|
59
|
36
|
.273
|
.317
|
.356
|
Eric Davis
|
84
|
349
|
66
|
26
|
282
|
.269
|
.359
|
.482
|
Julio Cruz
|
81
|
343
|
78
|
27
|
23
|
.237
|
.321
|
.299
|
Ichiro Suzuki
|
81
|
315
|
70
|
64
|
73
|
.331
|
.377
|
.430
|
Carl Crawford
|
82
|
302
|
64
|
84
|
70
|
.293
|
.330
|
.435
|
Most of these guys aren’t surprising. A few of us know that Tim Raines is the most effective base stealer in history. Rickey is on every list about stolen base guys. Morgan, Wilson, Davis, and Alomar were all considered among the fastest players of their generations, as Ichiro and Crawford are now.
Tony Womack is a surprise, as is (for those of us born at the tail end of the Carter administration) Julio Cruz. They are the two outliers of the group: the two guys who had no other offensive skill except their ability to steal a base without getting caught.
A fair number of these guys are middle infielders, which isn’t a surprise. I mean, who better to steal a base than the guy responsible for defending the stolen base? Morgan, Lopes, Alomar, Larkin, Womack, and Cruz were middle infielders. Morgan, Alomar, and Larkin were perennial Gold Glove winners. Davey Lopes also won one).
(As an aside: Joe Mauer is the only catcher currently residing in the 80% club, though he has just 30 career stolen bases. He gets a day pass and free use of the pool).
The outfielders were also generally strong defensive players: Ichiro has won seven Gold Gloves, while Eric Davis won 3. Even Henderson and Wilson each won one.
Which is remarkable, isn’t it? Most of the 80%-ers are terrific players. Five of the guys (Henderson, Raines, Morgan, Alomar, and Larkin) are Hall-of-Fame players. Ichiro will be a Hall-of-Famer, and if Eric Davis didn’t have the brilliant career that his first years hinted at, he wasn’t a slouch, either. Really good basestealers tend to be really good players.
Generations
One way to think about the 80%-ers is to look at them by ‘generations’ – lump the guys together into pairs based on their age. It works remarkably well:
Name
|
Rk. Yr.
|
SB%
|
SB
|
CS
|
3B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Joe Morgan
|
1963
|
80
|
689
|
162
|
96
|
268
|
.271
|
.392
|
.427
|
Davey Lopes
|
1972
|
83
|
557
|
114
|
50
|
155
|
.263
|
.349
|
.388
|
This is a less dramatic ‘stretch’ of a generation than it perhaps appears. Yes, Lopes broke into the majors a decade after Morgan did, but Lopes got a late start in the majors, and is only two years younger than Joe Morgan. They are similar players: both power-hitting second basemen on strong National League teams. Lopes had his first full season at Age 28: had he arrived in the majors at a younger age, he would have had a Hall-of-Fame-level career.
Name
|
Rk. Yr.
|
SB%
|
SB
|
CS
|
3B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Willie Wilson
|
1976
|
83
|
668
|
134
|
147
|
41
|
.285
|
.326
|
.376
|
Julio Cruz
|
1977
|
81
|
343
|
78
|
27
|
23
|
.237
|
.321
|
.299
|
While Cruz and Wilson played different positions, they were offensively similar players: switch-hitting slap hitters who had little power. Wilson was a career leadoff hitter, while Cruz went back and forth between the leadoff spot and the #9 position in the batting order.
Name
|
Rk. Yr.
|
SB%
|
SB
|
CS
|
3B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Rickey Henderson
|
1979
|
80
|
1406
|
335
|
66
|
297
|
.279
|
.401
|
.419
|
Tim Raines
|
1979
|
84
|
808
|
146
|
113
|
170
|
.294
|
.385
|
.425
|
See what I mean about the pairs working out nicely? Henderson and Raines are probably the two base stealers most linked to one another, direct contemporaries during the Decade of the Steal. For a long time, they were neck-and-neck. Their numbers at the end of the 1989 season:
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
SB
|
Henderson
|
138
|
.290
|
.400
|
.429
|
871
|
Raines
|
87
|
.303
|
.391
|
.442
|
585
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Henderson, of course, had the better late career, but for a decade the title of Greatest Lead-Off Hitter of All-Time was a debate between these two men.
Name
|
Rk. Yr.
|
SB%
|
SB
|
CS
|
3B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Eric Davis
|
1984
|
84
|
349
|
66
|
26
|
282
|
.269
|
.359
|
.482
|
Vince Coleman
|
1985
|
80
|
752
|
177
|
89
|
28
|
.264
|
.324
|
.345
|
What’s interesting about this pair is that both players represent extremes. Vince Coleman, of course, was an extreme runner: the entirety of his career was built on speed. And he had tremendous speed: Coleman led the majors in stolen bases for the first six years of his career. In his first three seasons he stole 326 bases. In 1986, having already established that he would try to steal a base every time he got on first, Coleman stole 107 bases and was caught just fourteen times, an astonishing 88% success rate. He was that fast.
Davis, of course, is the extreme combination of speed and power. Seven players in history have posted a speed/power number higher than 40.00. Eric Davis did it in his first two full seasons, hitting 27 homeruns and stealing 80 bases in 1986, and 37 homers and 50 stolen bases in 1987.
For their extremes, they are ultimately two ‘what-if?’ players? How many stolen bases could Vince Coleman have notched had he learned to take a pitch, or to make contact? How many MVP awards would Davis have won had he not lacerated his kidney diving for a ball in Game 4 of the 1990 World Series? Had he been a regular in the majors at 22 instead of 24? Had he avoided those nagging injuries?
Name
|
Rk. Yr.
|
SB%
|
SB
|
CS
|
3B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Barry Larkin
|
1986
|
83
|
379
|
77
|
76
|
198
|
.295
|
.371
|
.444
|
Roberto Alomar
|
1988
|
80
|
474
|
114
|
80
|
210
|
.300
|
.371
|
.443
|
Another great pairing, Alomar and Larkin are both top-ten middle infielders (The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract had Larkin ranked #6 among shortstops, and Alomar ranked #10 among second basemen). Their raw numbers are nearly identical, particularly their batting lines. And they were both perennial Gold Glove winners.
If Alomar and Larkin have a kindred spirit on the list, it’s Joe Morgan. The three of them are five-tool players, players who excel at all facets of the game while playing key defensive positions.
Name
|
Rk. Yr.
|
SB%
|
SB
|
CS
|
3B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Tony Womack
|
1993
|
83
|
363
|
74
|
59
|
36
|
.273
|
.317
|
.356
|
Tony Womack doesn’t get a pairing. Sorry.
Name
|
Rk. Yr.
|
SB%
|
SB
|
CS
|
3B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Ichiro Suzuki
|
2001
|
81
|
315
|
70
|
64
|
73
|
.331
|
.377
|
.430
|
Carl Crawford
|
2002
|
82
|
302
|
64
|
84
|
70
|
.293
|
.330
|
.435
|
This is the least convincing pairing, Ichiro being six years older than Crawford.
Ichiro is the only player on the list with a batting average well above .300, which is actually pretty surprising considering the speed of these players. Despite his huge lead in batting average, Ichiro has a lower on-base percentage than Morgan, Henderson, and Raines.
Ichiro and Crawford are the two active players, and it will be interesting to see if they stay in the 80% club. Ichiro is older, of course, so he is more likely to lose speed. That said, his success at stealing bases is actually getting better: he stole 45 bases in 2006 and was caught twice. In 2008 he stole 43 bases and was caught 5 times.
Carl Crawford…well, I have a lot of things to say about Carl Crawford. And, hey, he’s in the World Series. I guess he gets his own article.
(Thanks, www.baseballreference.com, for the numbers)
(Dave Fleming spends his time imagining an alternate universe where the Red Sox and Dodgers are playing in the World Series. He welcomes comments and questions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com)