Articles | Bill James Online

Last week we looked at some prominent minor league hitters and the quality of their contact. This week, we shift to minor league pitchers and which ones were best at avoiding contact.

By Mark Simon (Mar 27, 2022)

Mark and Corey take a look at Synthetic Statcast for top Minor League prospects.

Have yourself a day, Leo Cardenas

By Bill James (Mar 19, 2022)

This happened.

The Case for Fan Unions

By Dave Fleming (Mar 17, 2022)

One group was missing from baseball's recent labor dispute. How will that change?

On Matt Olson's Decline in Strikeouts

By Bill James (Mar 16, 2022)

Do players who cut their strikeouts in a season hold on to the lower K rate?

By Daniel Marks (Mar 08, 2022)

Talkin' Bill James, Neyer, and the Poz.....(say hey, say hey.....)

Seasonal Notation Similarity Scores

By Daniel Marks (Feb 26, 2022)

Looking at an old friend in a different light....

The All or Nothing Effect

By Paresh Gupta (Feb 21, 2022)

Guest author, Paresh Gupta, returns to analyze whether swinging for the fences at the expense of contact works out differently in Ocrtober than the regular season. Really interesting research!

A Fresh Look at NBA Assists

By Sports Info Solutions Staff (Feb 21, 2022)

The Hoops Staff at SIS takes a deeper look at creating opportunities than simply counting assists.

On David Ortiz

By Dave Fleming (Feb 07, 2022)

Three memories of an indelible career.

By Daniel Marks (Feb 06, 2022)

The results are in.....

Continuing the One-Team Theme

By Bill James (Feb 05, 2022)

Responding to a thread in the reader comments

By Mark Simon (Jan 23, 2022)

The answer might surprise you.

Best Teams By Total Points

By Mark Simon (Jan 15, 2022)

What can Total Points tell us about the best teams in the NFL?

By Mark Simon (Jan 15, 2022)

A novel look at what makes Carlos Correa's defense so special.

Making The Hall of Fame Case

By Mark Simon (Jan 15, 2022)

Mark uses Bill's Hall of Fame Value score to evaluate a few HoF candidates currently on the outside looking in.

Vagabonds and Homebodies

By Bill James (Jan 13, 2022)

Does the Hall of Fame favor one-team players?

2022 Gallery of Renown - Voting Results

By Daniel Marks (Jan 01, 2022)

The results are in. The two newest members are....

2021 MLB Year-End Awards

By Mark Simon (Dec 26, 2021)

These awards really should be recognized by MLB.

Appreciating Mark Buehrle & Tim Hudson

By Mark Simon (Dec 18, 2021)

They may not be Hall of Fame pitchers but Huddy and Buehrle were great at their craft.

By Sports Info Solutions Staff (Dec 18, 2021)

Say hello to the best fielders in Japan and Korea as recognized by the Sports Info Solutions staff.

2022 Gallery of Renown

By Daniel Marks (Dec 11, 2021)

The latest installment of an annual Bill James Online member project. Read....participate....and (eventually) vote.

Ballpark 'N Me

By Bill James (Dec 05, 2021)

Responding to a "Hey, Bill" question.

By Alex Vigderman (Dec 04, 2021)

Another Handbook excerpt! This time, Alex examines the players most likely to suffer an injury in 2022.

Mad Max Joins the Mad Mets

By Dave Fleming (Dec 02, 2021)

Projecting the Mets $130 million gamble.

The Nomar Garciaparra All Star Team

By Daniel Marks (Nov 25, 2021)

Another "team" concept article, this time introducing "Fibonacci Peakness Number".

By Mark Simon (Nov 20, 2021)

The Bill James Handbook '22 excerpt we've all been waiting for.

By Sarah Thompson (Nov 20, 2021)

This is a fun one! Curious who's most likely to reach a significant milestone or hurl a no-no? Sarah's got you covered.

Seasons in the Shadows

By Bill James (Nov 15, 2021)

Giving credit to overlooked seasons of MVP quality.

The Ballad of Buster Posey

By Dave Fleming (Nov 10, 2021)

Some early reflections on a great career.

The Braves Won The Marathon

By Mark Simon (Nov 07, 2021)

A lot had to break right for the Braves to win the World Series. Mark highlights a few of the reasons why Atlanta was able to overcome a slow start and crushing injury to win October.

2021 Fielding Bible Awards

By Mark Simon (Nov 07, 2021)

Mark sums up the 2021 Fielding Bible Award winners.

Fielding Bible Awards Preview (Part II)

By Mark Simon (Nov 07, 2021)

And the rest of the 2021 Fielding Bible Award winners are...

Franchise Strength Re-Estimated

By Bill James (Oct 24, 2021)

Some revisions to the previous article.

Fielding Bible Awards Preview (Part I)

By Mark Simon (Oct 23, 2021)

Our favorite time of the year!

By Mark Simon (Oct 23, 2021)

The best defensive team in baseball lost over 100 losses. What would their record have been otherwise??

Biggest MLB Surprises in 2021

By Mark Simon (Oct 23, 2021)

Looking back at some of the season's biggest surprises!

The Strongest Franchises

By Bill James (Oct 20, 2021)

A 1 to 30 ranking.

The Fielder Jones All Star Team

By Daniel Marks (Oct 17, 2021)

Players who tended to "stay in their lane".....

Note to the Readers

By Bill James (Oct 14, 2021)

It's a book crunch. I've had them for 45 years now.

No Biggie

By Bill James (Sep 27, 2021)

What does one do with a tiny bit of disembodied knowledge?

Cardinals Lead The Way ... Again

By Mark Simon (Sep 26, 2021)

The Cardinals have their elite run prevention to thank for an unlikely playoff appearance.

Marcus Semien's Sensational Season

By Mark Simon (Sep 26, 2021)

Toronto's signing of George Springer garnered bigger headlines but Marcus Semien may have been the best FA signing of the offseason.

By Bill James (Sep 17, 2021)

Yogi Berra and Javy Baez. Not really the same.

Super, Dominant, Excellent, Good

By Bill James (Sep 15, 2021)

This is a rather long article, 9,000+ words. I might suggest that you read it in two or three sittings.

By Mark Simon (Sep 06, 2021)

How does a pitching staff that doesn't strike batters out suppress runs? Having the defensive player of the month patrolling center helps.

The Baserunning Ways of the Rays

By Mark Simon (Sep 06, 2021)

The Rays always find creative ways to win. Base running is one more.

A Giant(s) Step Forward

By Mark Simon (Sep 06, 2021)

From afterthoughts to frontrunners, Mark highlights a few reasons for the Giants' success this year.

Tanking

By Bill James (Sep 01, 2021)

Trust me; I'm trying to help. Maybe I am just not good at it.

A Career Performed Freehan(d) Style

By Daniel Marks (Aug 29, 2021)

A look back at one of the all-time great catchers

Value Pattern Similarity

By Bill James (Aug 13, 2021)

Still sort of have my foot caught in the Joe Morgan trap.

Addendum to MA-13

By Bill James (Aug 10, 2021)

A couple of thoughts after I posted the series.

Response Space for #1 pitchers series

By Bill James (Aug 09, 2021)

Just space for you to comment

By Daniel Marks (Aug 08, 2021)

The series concludes (at last!) with the top ten.

Jeff Suppan Sandwiches

By Bill James (Aug 07, 2021)

I remember Jeff

The Matchup Data x

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

This is my third try at posting this. Wish me luck. 'x" is in the title is just so that the software doesn't realize it is that same article again.

Explaining the 14 articles

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

Same article as "Hello", for those of you who saw that one.

So What IS a #1 Starter?

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

A stub of an article

Murry Dickson

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

Good Ole' Murry

The Usual and Ordinary #1s

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

An accounting of the guys who make the list.

Introduction to Matching Aces

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

Just outlining the idea.

Teams

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

Do all teams have a #1 starter.

#1 Starters and the World Series

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

Do teams with more #1 starters dominate the World Series?

The Post-2016 Cubs

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

My tiny flash of insight here.

The Matchup Data

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

And here we talk about Bob Gibson and Randy Johnson, and outline some method that is used in other articles.

The Toughest and Easiest Competition

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

They run from Zachary to Nagy

Bob Bruce and Friends

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

Some guys get all the breaks They don't make no mistakes

The Guys From 1988

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

Because, of course, you probably haven't thought about Teddy Higuera since 1988.

True Levels

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

A completely new and potentially useless way to rank pitchers.

Heroes and Bullies

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

and Tyrants and Revolutionaries

Hello

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2021)

Just an Introductory Note.

The Teams of the Deacde

By Bill James (Jul 26, 2021)

Sometimes organized thinking makes things more clear. Sometmes it just muddies the waters.

The Immortal Gil Hodges

By Bill James (Jul 21, 2021)

Just trying to think through the problem.

So What is a Historic Accomplishment?

By Bill James (Jul 15, 2021)

Asking for your input here.

Ranking MLB Catchers by Total Runs

By Cam Harrigan (Jul 13, 2021)

Welcome, Cam, and thank you for your deep dive into the game's best catchers!

First Half Defensive Leaders

By Mark Simon (Jul 12, 2021)

So many great defenders here, especially in LF.

June's Defensive Player of the Month

By Mark Simon (Jul 12, 2021)

Meanwhile in Denver, Joshua Fuentes is making everyone forget about his cousin, Nolan Arenado!

By Daniel Marks (Jul 05, 2021)

The countdown continues.....

Jacob deGrom's Challenge with Context

By Dave Fleming (Jul 01, 2021)

You're tired of reading about WAR, aren't you? This won't help.

The Unicorn and the Statistic

By Dave Fleming (Jun 29, 2021)

Does WAR really understand Shohei Ohtani?

By Mark Simon (Jun 21, 2021)

Let's go one step further and look at who has made the the most good (and bad) baserunning plays.

Top Baserunning Teams & Players

By Mark Simon (Jun 21, 2021)

Turns out the NL West also has some great baserunning teams too!

May's Defensive Player of the Month

By Mark Simon (Jun 21, 2021)

The NL West boasted some great (and versatile) defenders last month.

Bad Outs

By Dave Fleming (Jun 10, 2021)

Can we learn anything from looking at two statistics we usually ignore?

By Daniel Marks (May 31, 2021)

The countdown continues.....

Clyde, Jody and Francisco

By Bill James (May 27, 2021)

Wally Moses also was 1 and 15. Somehow I forgot to mention that.

A Review of THE HALL BALL

By Steven Goldleaf (May 27, 2021)

Have a ball.

The Aesthetic Issues

By Bill James (May 25, 2021)

Reprinting an article from 2020, and answering a series of reader questions.

April's Defensive Player of the Month

By Mark Simon (May 22, 2021)

Who was April's Defensive Player of the Month??

Big NFL Winners In First Round

By Mark Simon (May 22, 2021)

Mark's recap of the first round of the NFL Draft

R E S P E C T

By Bill James (May 19, 2021)

Swinging for the fences with nothing on the line.

20 Seasons of Cy Young

By Steven Goldleaf (May 18, 2021)

Fun With Excel

The Other Only Nolan

By Dave Fleming (May 06, 2021)

What kind of pitcher is Shohei Ohtani?

By Daniel Marks (May 02, 2021)

The countdown continues.....

Fast-Working Pitchers

By John Dewan (Apr 25, 2021)

John recognizes an under-appreciated skill.

The Story of Carlos Rodón's 9th Inning

By Mark Simon (Apr 25, 2021)

Mark's breakdown of the inning that cemented Carlos Rodon's recent no-no.

Jacob deGrom Deserves Better

By Mark Simon (Apr 25, 2021)

The same has been said about so many Mets over the years.

The Joy of Sox

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 23, 2021)

A review of Erik Sherman's TWO SIDES OF GLORY

By Daniel Marks (Apr 19, 2021)

Back by popular demand (sort of), the "Dan Marks Era" series continues, this time looking at starting pitchers

Oh, Bee Pee? (SECOND TRY)

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 16, 2021)

What the bees leave on your fruits and vegetables that you don’t want to know about.

Three Letter Codes

By Bill James (Apr 05, 2021)

Forming groups of players by focusing on skills.

MLB's Top Defensive Players

By Mark Simon (Apr 03, 2021)

The Matts over in Oakland lay claim to two of the top spots but Mark takes a look at which other players round out MLB's best defenders.

Is Andy Dalton an Upgrade for Bears?

By John Dewan (Apr 03, 2021)

John takes a look at the signing of Andy Dalton in Chicago and whether he represents an upgrade at QB.

By Mark Simon (Apr 03, 2021)

Mark explains how the Cardinals could repeat as the best defensive team in baseball this season.

A Review of Philip Roth's Biography

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 01, 2021)

A long review containing a short section about baseball, including a sort-of tracer

21 Bold Predictions for 2021

By Dave Fleming (Mar 31, 2021)

Gazing into the crystal ball for a long-awaited season.

Three Up, Three Down

By Dave Fleming (Mar 24, 2021)

Some unexpected risers for 2021, and the teams we should be pessimistic about.

The Case for the Intentional Walk

By Steven Goldleaf (Mar 20, 2021)

Followup to "Aukward Memories"

What Matters to You?

By Daniel Marks (Mar 20, 2021)

Your participation is requested for a fun Hall of Fame survey that captures what's important to YOU!

The Pirates' Rebuild Starts on Defense

By Mark Simon (Mar 17, 2021)

The Pirates may not have a whole lot going on with the bat this season but their rebuild should at least be exciting defensively.

Aukward memories

By Steven Goldleaf (Mar 16, 2021)

I know, I know, I said I'd stop doing tracers.....

The Black Hole

By Bill James (Mar 14, 2021)

Actual research about the Giants' problems at shortstop in the 1960s.

3 - 6 - 3

By Bill James (Mar 12, 2021)

Reporting on someone else's research.

2021 NFL Draft Preview

By Nathan Cooper, John Todd, and Mark Simon (Feb 26, 2021)

It's never too early to start talking NFL draft, is it?

Just an Update

By Bill James (Feb 25, 2021)

Scheduling.

Friends, Torontonians, Countrymen

By Dave Fleming (Feb 25, 2021)

Do we praise Marcus Semien, or bury him?

A Portal to the 19th Century

By Steven Goldleaf (Feb 20, 2021)

a few short steps into the past

Quick and Dirty Win Shares

By Bill James (Feb 18, 2021)

Following through on a reader's suggestion

The Little Bit Short Club

By Bill James (Feb 11, 2021)

Who best defines the concept of "a good team that couldn't get over the hump"?

By Steven Goldleaf (Feb 10, 2021)

“Come, bustle, bustle, caparison my horse!”

Who Will Stop Mahomes & Brady?

By Mark Simon (Feb 05, 2021)

Two elite QBs bring the 2020-21 NFL season to a close on Sunday. Mark takes a closer look at the defenses trying to stop them.

By Mark Simon (Feb 05, 2021)

Mark breaks down one of the great two-way players in today's game and what makes his defense so incredible.

"Character" analysis

By Steven Goldleaf (Jan 31, 2021)

In for a schilling, out for a pound.

The 2022 Hall of Fame Ballot

By Mark Simon (Jan 27, 2021)

The lack of any 2021 inductees just means we get more time to talk about 2022's! Mark digs into some interesting names joining the ballot next season.

In Memoriam: Hank Aaron

By Mark Simon (Jan 27, 2021)

Mark pays tribute to Hank Aaron, all-time great.

By Dave Fleming (Jan 22, 2021)

What does the future hold for new Toronto outfielder George Springer?

By Steven Goldleaf (Jan 20, 2021)

Just your average book review

Families of Players--1

By Bill James (Jan 19, 2021)

Starting a new thing here.

Relatives

By Bill James (Jan 17, 2021)

Not that anybody asked. . . .

White Sox Bolster Their Pitching Staff

By Mark Simon (Jan 14, 2021)

The South Siders' deep bullpen just got deeper. And they also added a front-line starter. Mark breaks down the Sox' aggressive offseason moves.

Clockwise and Counterclockwise

By Steven Goldleaf (Jan 14, 2021)

More mush from the wimp. It does have the virtue of being only about 1000 words this time.

Values and Strategy

By Bill James (Jan 13, 2021)

Expanding on a "Hey, Bill" entry.

The Allenated Self

By Steven Goldleaf (Jan 11, 2021)

A review, after a rather discursive start

By Bryce Rossler (Jan 09, 2021)

Bryce tells us what to watch for during Monday's National Championship game.

Campaneris and Aparicio

By Bill James (Jan 09, 2021)

An Overrated/Underrated Exercise

The Greatest Relievers of All Time

By Bill James (Jan 05, 2021)

Completing my thoughts

Gerry Staley, Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek

By Bill James (Jan 04, 2021)

Part one of a two-part article.

Re-Thinking the Best Shot Hypothesis

By Bill James (Jan 01, 2021)

A short article, which you are free to discuss if you are interested.

2021 Gallery of Renown - Voting Results

By Daniel Marks (Jan 01, 2021)

The voting has closed, and the results are in. It appears a Moose was seen wearing a bloody sock....

College Football Playoff Preview

By John Shirley (Dec 30, 2020)

John breaks down the CFP teams using Sports Info Solutions' advanced football stats.

Two Brave and Powerful Men

By Bill James (Dec 30, 2020)

Still working on Under and Overrated

The Penguin and Mr. Clean

By Bill James (Dec 29, 2020)

Following up on a reader's suggestion.

The Perception Deficit Score

By Bill James (Dec 28, 2020)

Here's a hour out of your week that you'll never get back.

MLB Year-End Awards

By Mark Simon (Dec 28, 2020)

Mark hands out some of the most unique awards you'll encounter this season.

By Daniel Marks (Dec 27, 2020)

Taking an early look at the 2021 "Hall of Fame Tracker", with some history and some early observations

Nolan vs. Nolan - A Deep Dive

By Daniel Marks (Dec 22, 2020)

2 pitching candidates. 1 job opening. Pop quiz, hotshot. What do you do?

Patrick Mahomes is the Clear MVP

By Sarah Thompson (Dec 19, 2020)

In her first article for Bill James Online, Sarah makes the case for Patrick Mahomes for MVP.

2021 Gallery of Renown - Voting Phase

By Daniel Marks (Dec 19, 2020)

Time for Bill James Online members to cast your votes.

By Steven Goldleaf (Dec 14, 2020)

A little nuts-and-bolts (mostly nuts) discussion on the writing of biographies

2020 NPB & KBO Fielding Bible Awards

By Sports Info Solutions Staff (Dec 10, 2020)

This week we crown the season's best defenders in Korea and Japan.

By Steven Goldleaf (Dec 06, 2020)

yet another installation on a subject that you may well be bored by several installations ago

The Intrigue of Andrelton Simmons

By Mark Simon (Dec 04, 2020)

What effect does a rough 30-game season have on Andrelton Simmons' value?

By Mark Simon (Dec 04, 2020)

A friend once suggested that when eligible, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito should appear on the ballot together as a single player.

The Sheff on the Shelf

By Dave Fleming (Dec 02, 2020)

Contributing - perhaps - to Bill's critique of WAR.

Revisiting that game from 1944

By Steven Goldleaf (Dec 01, 2020)

an update on an old article

The Real Problem with WAR

By Bill James (Nov 30, 2020)

It's the process ITSELF that doesn't work.

Shorthanded and Longhanded

By Steven Goldleaf (Nov 29, 2020)

a return to the nutty ideas that would get me thrown from a moving vehicle

By Brian Reiff (Nov 22, 2020)

The following is an excerpt from The 2021 Bill James Handbook. All stats are as of the end of the 2020 regular season.

By Brian Reiff (Nov 21, 2020)

The following essay is part of The 2021 Bill James Handbook, available now at ACTASports.com.

The Steal Of The 2020 NBA Draft

By Jake Loos (Nov 21, 2020)

Did a recent NBA champ just win the draft? In his inaugural BJOL article, Jake Loos takes a look at the steal of this year's draft.

Searching for Bobby Abreu

By Dave Fleming (Nov 18, 2020)

An unexpected comparable for an underrated outfielder.

On Certainty

By Dave Fleming (Nov 12, 2020)

Thoughts on the White Sox decision to hire Tony LaRussa.

Billing update

By General (Nov 11, 2020)

If your account came up for renewal recently, you might want to read this.

The Doubles Record

By Bill James (Nov 10, 2020)

Will any active player knock Tris Speaker off the doubles throne?

Not too shabby

By Steven Goldleaf (Nov 04, 2020)

re-posting an article from 2017

The Better Than Best

By Bill James (Oct 30, 2020)

Sometimes a guy is More than Most.

By Steven Goldleaf (Oct 29, 2020)

A mere year-and-a-half late in getting to "Part Two"

The Quick Hook Problem

By Bill James (Oct 27, 2020)

Warm up the showers.

Thoughts on a (Missed) Classic

By Dave Fleming (Oct 25, 2020)

I skipped the end of Game 4. That's a problem.

By Mark Simon (Oct 25, 2020)

Presenting Part 2 of 2020's Fielding Bible Award winners!

Houston vs. Tennessee

By Bill James (Oct 19, 2020)

What seems at first blush to be obvious is not always false.

When Talents Disappear, Part Two

By Steven Goldleaf (Oct 16, 2020)

The 97% Baseball version

When Talents Disappear, Part One

By Steven Goldleaf (Oct 14, 2020)

97% non-baseball, Part 2 is 97% baseball. (Originally written last November, as made clear in graf #1 where I emerge from a movie theater, something I haven't done in quite a while)

Strong and Weak MVP Classes

By Bill James (Oct 13, 2020)

Not all MVP races are created equal.

Full and Empty Batting Averages

By Bill James (Oct 12, 2020)

Rob Neyer and I don't always see eyer to eyer, but so we have managed to disagree without Ire.

The Quiet MVP

By Dave Fleming (Sep 29, 2020)

He's a pitcher. A big free agent. Plays in the AL. In New York.

By Mark Simon (Sep 25, 2020)

Over the last 13 seasons, two teams - both 2020 division winners - have consistently achieved more with less. Mark takes a closer look at how they've done it.

A Galaxy of Royal Stars

By Bill James (Sep 25, 2020)

Jose Rosada is #77. You were probably wondering.

Tom Brady Anderson and Willie Miranda

By Bill James (Sep 20, 2020)

Finishing my answer from Hey, Bill

By Mark Simon (Sep 17, 2020)

Mark takes a look at some teams with both impressive and impressively poor defensive streaks that might end this season.

Clayton Kershaw vs. Walter Johnson

By Bill James (Sep 14, 2020)

A follow-up to yesterday's broken eggs.

Zack Greinke versus Cy Young

By Bill James (Sep 14, 2020)

Research which did not completely fail.

R.I.P. Lou Brock

By John Dewan (Sep 10, 2020)

John shares a fond memory of the great man who was Lou Brock.

Batting Order Position Values

By Bill James (Sep 07, 2020)

Bob Allison and Norm Cash are not mentioned in this article. I don't know why; I could easily have worked them in.

Estimates

By Steven Goldleaf (Sep 06, 2020)

Thoughts while bicycling back home

The Magnificent Third Amberson

By Bill James (Sep 04, 2020)

A tiny excerpt from an unpublished, uncompleted book.

By Mark Simon (Sep 04, 2020)

A few of the less marquee names dealt at the deadline flash major upside with their glove work. Mark takes us on a deeper dive of the trade deadline acquisitions.

By Mark Simon (Sep 01, 2020)

He might not be hitting like he's accustomed to but Nolan Arenado is still pickin' it.

Peter Piper is now available

By General (Sep 01, 2020)

Thanks for your patience while we troubleshot the issues.

Positional Strength Indicator

By Bill James (Sep 01, 2020)

An end run around the statistics.

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By Steven Goldleaf (Aug 31, 2020)

This was supposed to be posted yesterday, but was not, for reasons contained below.

The Importance of Defense

By Mark Simon (Aug 19, 2020)

Just how important is defense? Click here and Mark will tell ya'.

Noli Mi Tangere

By Steven Goldleaf (Aug 16, 2020)

"For Caesar's I am"--a review of Joan Ryan's INTANGIBLES

By Daniel Marks (Aug 16, 2020)

The series continues, along with some meandering thoughts related to the DH.

The Case Against Ralph Terry

By Steven Goldleaf (Aug 11, 2020)

a counter-historical hypothetical

Carl's Defense

By Bill James (Aug 10, 2020)

Sabermetric philosophy.

By Mark Simon (Aug 07, 2020)

The Total Runs leaderboard contains some expected names. And two Mariners.

The Next Saberhagen

By Dave Fleming (Aug 07, 2020)

The young pitcher you're not paying enough attention to.

Counting Stars

By Bill James (Aug 04, 2020)

The Indians of the 1950s

The 20-Mile Mark

By Bill James (Aug 03, 2020)

Two articles here--one about the Runs Saved project, the other research about the connection between Home Runs and Hit Batsmen.

To the Infield We Go

By Bill James (Jul 31, 2020)

Hi Ho, Hi Ho.

Shift Rates are Climbing Again?

By Alex Vigderman (Jul 30, 2020)

Wait, MORE shifting???

The Revenge of Matty Alou

By Bill James (Jul 30, 2020)

A day off from the Runs Saved.

The Actual First Basemen in this Study

By Bill James (Jul 29, 2020)

The nominees for the Keith Hernandez Award are:

The Process at First Base

By Bill James (Jul 28, 2020)

The toughest position to analyze.

Let's Finish the Catchers

By Bill James (Jul 27, 2020)

Because if you don't have a catcher back there, you'll have a lot of Passed Balls.

By Mark Simon (Jul 24, 2020)

Mark argues why the NL West is home to 2020's best defensive team.

2020 MLB Pitcher Projections

By Mark Simon (Jul 24, 2020)

Baseball is back! And we've already been treated to some fine pitching performances from the likes of Cole, DeGrom, and Dustin May. Mark looks at 2020's best projected pitchers.

Defensive Catchers, Part I

By Bill James (Jul 24, 2020)

Pat Borders, Smoky Burgess, Bill Freehan, Johnny Bench. . .

Breaking News

By Bill James (Jul 23, 2020)

A little more data.

FINALLY!

By Bill James (Jul 22, 2020)

We have Runs Saved numbers for the pitchers.

Which Team Will Surprise in 2020?

By Dave Fleming (Jul 21, 2020)

Can't we just go with all of them?

Working it through

By Bill James (Jul 21, 2020)

Bill continues his dreary deathmarch toward some sort of defensive numbers that nobody cares about. Have an ice cream cone, and forget your problems.

Overcoming Arachnophobia

By Daniel Marks (Jul 21, 2020)

Oh what a tangled web we weave, if the Spiders emerge in the land of Cleve....

Nice Play! Nice Play!

By Bill James (Jul 20, 2020)

Dealing with Defensive Range in the analysis. Which doesn't have damn-all to do with pitchers, but we have to explain it now in order to fully explain the pitching numbers.

May the Best Team WIn

By Bill James (Jul 20, 2020)

Just because people are talking about this

The Fielding Percentage Part

By Bill James (Jul 17, 2020)

The much-maligned Error

Players Choosing To Opt Out

By Mark Simon (Jul 16, 2020)

Baseball starts in a week but not everyone will be there. Mark takes a look at some of the bigger names sitting out 2020.

Pitchers and Their Best Friends

By Bill James (Jul 16, 2020)

Passed over for the Nobel Prize for Literature once again, our hero turns his attention to a long-winded, desultory commentary on pitchers and double plays.

Continuing with the Pitchers

By Bill James (Jul 15, 2020)

Working on pitchers in the Runs Saved system.

By Bill James (Jul 14, 2020)

Working, working.

RSAZ, A to Z

By Bill James (Jul 12, 2020)

Re-starting Runs Saved Against Zero

2020 MLB Hitter Projections

By Mark Simon (Jul 07, 2020)

Ever wonder what 60 game projections look like? Mark breaks down the projected leaders across a handful of stats.

Who Are Some of the Top KBO Hitters?

By Mark Simon (Jul 07, 2020)

Mark takes a closer look at the KBO hitters swinging a big stick.

Lemon and Gibby

By Dave Fleming (Jul 02, 2020)

Running another parallel to unpack defense.

By Daniel Marks (Jun 27, 2020)

Finally getting back to it....the series continues with the right fielders, sans Aaron, Robinson, Clemente, and Kaline.

Key Players in NPB

By Mark Simon (Jun 26, 2020)

Mark takes a closer look at some of the more exciting players who are actually playing baseball right now: NPB stars.

Winfield and Evans

By Dave Fleming (Jun 25, 2020)

Evaluating two players.

Why We Need Runs Saved Against Zero

By Bill James (Jun 23, 2020)

Why, yes, I AM hoping to win the Nobel Prize for this article.

Formed on this Continent

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 22, 2020)

Or, in the end, NOT formed on this continent

One Base Advancement Events

By Bill James (Jun 22, 2020)

Father's Day having past, the author resumes his Death March toward the ultimate pitching and fielding numbers. The main virtue of this installment is that it is short.

followup to "Derring-Do"

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 20, 2020)

a tracer on an unimpeachably reliable source

Walks and HB

By Bill James (Jun 19, 2020)

Re-posting this. . . it was supposed to show up this morning but something went wrong.

Component Theory

By Bill James (Jun 18, 2020)

Continuing the work re-begun yesterday.

Re-Starting Runs Saved Against Zero

By Bill James (Jun 17, 2020)

Hi Ho, Hi Ho. It's back to work we go.

By Alex Vigderman (Jun 16, 2020)

Not surprising but the NC Dinos are leading the KBO in DRS. Alex also looks at how defense KBO stacks up to MLB and MiLB.

Moments in the Sun

By Bill James (Jun 15, 2020)

Just a couple of little notes.

Ball Four Revisited

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 14, 2020)

A retrospective look at a book we've all read and re-read (plus a bonus trivia quiz)

Who Are Some of the Top KBO Pitchers?

By Mark Simon (Jun 11, 2020)

The best pitchers in the KBO right now include some familiar names.

The 1963 to 1968 Hitting Desert

By Bill James (Jun 07, 2020)

A quick hit on the research bong.

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 02, 2020)

A tracer of a more personal nature than most

Peak and Prime Seasons

By Bill James (Jun 01, 2020)

Aging research.

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 01, 2020)

Followup to Joe Pos’s followup on Hosmer’s dash home

Duke Snider and Rick Monday

By Bill James (May 31, 2020)

This is not a serious article.

On BJOL maintenance

By General (May 30, 2020)

And we're back to normal!

The Thing With Feathers

By Steven Goldleaf (May 29, 2020)

See the Complete Poems of Emily Dickinson, edited by Thomas H. Johnson, ed., Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University press for the literary reference.

By Steven Goldleaf (May 26, 2020)

conclusion and changes to the system

A very fast Stan Musial

By Bill James (May 26, 2020)

Memories of wasted holiday.

By Steven Goldleaf (May 25, 2020)

The project, drawing close to the end of its natural life-span

By Dave Fleming (May 25, 2020)

A conclusion, of sorts.

Speed and Runs Scored

By Bill James (May 25, 2020)

The third article in three days on this general topic.

By Steven Goldleaf (May 24, 2020)

Resuming the process of finding the three-year OPS+ champ

More Speed Vs. OBP

By Bill James (May 23, 2020)

Just when you thought it was safe to go back on the basepaths.

By Daniel Marks (May 23, 2020)

The series continues, as we venture into the crazy world of "Out of Left Field"

Speed and On Base Percentage

By Bill James (May 23, 2020)

A quick study of the relative futures of faster and slower players with on base percentage separations.

By Alex Vigderman (May 21, 2020)

Alex runs some simulations to determine the effects of a shorter season on contending teams.

Little Lefties

By Steven Goldleaf (May 19, 2020)

A peculiar sub-set of players

Workhorses

By Bill James (May 19, 2020)

An Index for Managers as to how hard they work their starting pitchers.

Bill James Online site maintenance

By General

Update: the site will be unavailable again for a few hours on Wednesday 5/20. We apologize sincerely for the inconvenience.

BOUTON: a book review

By Steven Goldleaf (May 11, 2020)

A timely review, for a change.

By Steven Goldleaf (May 06, 2020)

A sort of book review, career review, personal essay, confession, appreciation, memoir, homage, query and about eight other genres combined—and all for the same low, low price!

By Dave Fleming (May 05, 2020)

Ugueth Urbina, and a writer's life.

By Steven Goldleaf (May 01, 2020)

More of the same, Piled Higher and Deeper

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 27, 2020)

Re-zooming the series

By Daniel Marks (Apr 25, 2020)

The series continues as we move over to the hot corner.

By Dave Fleming (Apr 23, 2020)

Small exposures.

My Heart Bleeds Blue Borscht

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 19, 2020)

A heartfelt review

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 19, 2020)

with a prefatory look at my methodology, and certain of its flaws

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 17, 2020)

More of the Same

By Mark Simon (Apr 16, 2020)

After crowning the Andrelton Simmons the winner of the SIS Tournament of Excellence, Mark turns his attention to this century's best defensive team.

By Dave Fleming (Apr 16, 2020)

Ozzie Albies.

Choices

By Bill James (Apr 15, 2020)

Asking for your input.

Choices B

By Bill James (Apr 15, 2020)

Asking for your input.

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 15, 2020)

After the war

Who Deserves to Win?

By Bill James (Apr 14, 2020)

Once in a lifetime. At least.

By Mark Simon (Apr 13, 2020)

Because who else? Simmons has been so fun to watch for so long it's only fitting.

Mixed Bag Monday

By Bill James (Apr 13, 2020)

Or, The Learning Curve Simulator. Mostly it's the latter.

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 11, 2020)

You could look it up: another Joe D. tracer that cropped up in the midst of long, historical project

By Dave Fleming (Apr 11, 2020)

Pulaski, Virginia.

Re-Establishing the Values

By Bill James (Apr 10, 2020)

Trying to find the Values that work in this system.

By Daniel Marks (Apr 09, 2020)

The series continues, this time reviewing second basemen.

The Global Cheat

By Bill James (Apr 08, 2020)

Dodging around corners to try to make this thing work.

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 08, 2020)

Wart Ime

Edging Forward

By Bill James (Apr 06, 2020)

Searching for a new Zero-Competence Line

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 05, 2020)

Through the late 1930s

By Daniel Marks (Apr 04, 2020)

The series continues, this time looking at great utility players

Normal

By Bill James (Apr 04, 2020)

Shifting Course a Little Bit

Pause

By Bill James (Apr 03, 2020)

Catching our breath before we continue.

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 03, 2020)

An intro to looking at MLB historically if it had been organized more along the lines of boxing

Keeping the Game Under Control

By Bill James (Apr 02, 2020)

Let's turn two. Keep him close, Charlie.

The Big Item on Our Agenda

By Bill James (Apr 01, 2020)

Getting into Fielding Now.

The Tournament of Defensive Excellence

By Mark Simon (Apr 01, 2020)

March Madness tourney to name the best defender in MLB of the 21st century. This is exactly what we need right now!

By Mark Simon (Mar 31, 2020)

The NL West is home to a few stout defenses. Mark breaks down the teams who've benefitted the most from their crafty glove work.

By Mark Simon (Mar 31, 2020)

Mark serves up some tasty nuggets from this year's Fielding Bible.

Building Out the Files

By Bill James (Mar 31, 2020)

Still workin' on my project.

The High Cost of the Free Pass

By Bill James (Mar 30, 2020)

How many people DIDN'T you walk?

By Daniel Marks (Mar 29, 2020)

The "Dan Marks Era" review continues with a look at shortstops.

Strikeout Runs Saved

By Bill James (Mar 28, 2020)

Those Boring, Fascist strikeouts

Saving Private Runs

By Bill James (Mar 27, 2020)

Moving the ball on the research.

Legally Stolen Bases

By Bill James (Mar 26, 2020)

A look at the SB data.

By Daniel Marks (Mar 25, 2020)

There are players I'll remember....some have gone, and some remain. In my life (you know the rest)....

The Pre-Season Rookie's League

By Bill James (Mar 25, 2020)

Play Ball!

The Mackey Sasser Award

By Bill James (Mar 24, 2020)

Passed Pitches.

BALK! BALK!

By Bill James (Mar 23, 2020)

Silly little plays.

Rocks

By Bill James (Mar 22, 2020)

Fielding Percentage. Where we going with this?

The Pitcher's Best Friend

By Bill James (Mar 20, 2020)

Continuing the series--I think this is 7.

Double DER U

By Bill James (Mar 19, 2020)

Sixth article in the series. The ball is in play.

Bombs Away

By Bill James (Mar 18, 2020)

Fifth in the Series

87 Percent Less Fun than Wild Bitches

By Bill James (Mar 17, 2020)

Fourth article in the series, with the best explanation yet of what it is I am trying to do.

Duck and Cover

By Bill James (Mar 17, 2020)

Third in the Series

Big Walkers

By Bill James (Mar 15, 2020)

Second article in the series begun yesterday.

A Pair of Recent Books

By Steven Goldleaf (Mar 14, 2020)

I just caught up on my baseball reading this past week

Strikeout Tigers

By Bill James (Mar 14, 2020)

Research into the best and worst team strikeout totals, normalized.

Sisters and Resisters

By Steven Goldleaf (Feb 21, 2020)

Review of THE RESISTERS by Gish Jen. Knopf, $26.95

Three Looks at the MVPs

By Bill James (Feb 20, 2020)

How much have modern Analytical stats influenced MVP voting?

NCAA Transfer Players to Watch in 2020

By Logan King (Feb 18, 2020)

Logan showcases a few quarterbacks with the potential to be 2020 standout transfers.

Gerrit Cole's recent comps

By Steven Goldleaf (Feb 13, 2020)

What do similar pitchers' performances have to say about Cole going forward?

By Mark Simon (Feb 12, 2020)

In this edition of Stat of the Week, Mark breaks down why Mookie Betts is so valuable defensively.

On Mookie Betts

By Dave Fleming (Feb 12, 2020)

A polemic on decency in the the shadow of a blockbuster trade.

The Top 100 Right Fielders

By Bill James (Feb 09, 2020)

I hope this was worth waiting for.

2020 NFL Draft Preview

By Nathan Cooper, John Todd, and Mark Simon (Feb 05, 2020)

The Super Bowl may be over but it's not baseball season yet. Nathan, John, and Mark scout the 2020 NFL draft class.

Swing and a Miss

By Bill James (Feb 05, 2020)

Acknowledging my mistake.

By Daniel Marks (Feb 04, 2020)

To snub, or not to snub, that is the question....

Super Bowl LIV Preview

By Mark Simon (Jan 29, 2020)

This weekend's Super Bowl is shaping up to be a good one. Mark breaks down the matchups most likely to determine the outcome.

Who's The Next Larry Walker?

By Mark Simon (Jan 29, 2020)

Larry Walker reached the top of the mountain in his final year on the ballot. Mark looks at who else might face a similar path to induction.

Small Tracer, Big Tracer

By Steven Goldleaf (Jan 27, 2020)

Only the first 1000 words concern baseball in the strictest sense. After that, the subject ranges from the New Testament to jury duty to Hamlet to Al Sharpton to a poet Bill just Tweet-quoted today

Ripping Pos a New One

By Steven Goldleaf (Jan 17, 2020)

Still no computer, but I can't stop having thoughts.

Larry Walker: Ink Test

By Paresh Gupta (Jan 08, 2020)

Paresh breaks down Larry Walker's HoF case and in the process poses an important question about performance and durability.

The Team of the Decade

By Dave Fleming (Dec 31, 2019)

Finding a standout team from the last ten years.

The Fielding Bible All-Decade Team

By Mark Simon (Dec 31, 2019)

Mark wishes all Bill James Online readers a Happy New Year with the Fielding Bible All-Decade Team!

College Football Playoff Preview

By John Shirley (Dec 27, 2019)

John previews the CFP using some of Sports Info Solutions' advanced analytics.

By Daniel Marks (Dec 22, 2019)

Taking an early look at the 2020 "Hall of Fame Tracker", with some history and some early observations

2019 MLB Year-End Awards

By Mark Simon (Dec 20, 2019)

More interesting than the MVP, IMO.

By Alex Vigderman (Dec 18, 2019)

DRS gets an update!

By Dave Fleming (Dec 13, 2019)

Can we change how we think about long-term, big-dollar sports contracts?

Brief Leave of Absence

By Steven Goldleaf (Dec 08, 2019)

an explanation

2020 BBWAA Hall of Fame Contest Update

By Daniel Marks (Dec 06, 2019)

Analyzing the BBWAA Hall of Fame predictions submitted by our member community

Sweet Lou and Cobra

By Daniel Marks (Dec 02, 2019)

A look at the 2020 Modern Era Ballot - but mostly about Lou Whitaker and Dave Parker.

Steve Garvey: A Case of Context

By Paresh Gupta (Nov 29, 2019)

Steve Garvey, Hall of Famer? Paresh makes a compelling case.

How I Almost Flunked Out of Grad School

By Steven Goldleaf (Nov 28, 2019)

A chapter from a long book (550 pp. and counting) that responds to a minor point raised in the Skip Lockwood "Comments" section. Literally 0 to do with baseball, of no interest to most BJOL readers.

Skip Lockwood

By Steven Goldleaf (Nov 25, 2019)

A review of INSIGHT PITCH: MY LIFE AS A MAJOR LEAGUE CLOSER, by Skip Lockwood. Sports Publishing, 2018. $19.99

DisQualiBall

By Bill James (Nov 23, 2019)

We can't all be geniuses.

By Mark Simon (Nov 19, 2019)

Mark takes a look at the results of Bill's Hall of Fame polls to find out the most popular candidates for induction.

Improving the MVP System

By Bill James (Nov 18, 2019)

A short summary of the much longer article about my studies of this issue.

The Perfect MVP Voting Structure

By Bill James (Nov 18, 2019)

Research into the MVP voting structure. Not the votes; the structure of the vote.

A Surprising Win Shares Leader

By Brian Reiff (Nov 16, 2019)

The Matts get most of the love out in Oakland for their work at the corners. However, in 2019 a surprising breakout emerged from the middle of the diamond.

The GOAT Contest

By Steven Goldleaf (Nov 08, 2019)

An Open Competition

Strasburg and Scherzer Similarities

By Lindsay Zeck (Nov 08, 2019)

Lindsay examines some of the many similarities between the Nationals' aces.

Back to the Future, Part 4?

By Daniel Marks (Nov 06, 2019)

Taking a look at alternate history - yesterday's Cy Young awards, but with today's standards

The 2019 Fielding Bible Awards

By Mark Simon (Nov 05, 2019)

Oakland's Matts dominated the corners. Who else won a Fielding Bible Award in 2019?

The Quality of Competition Over Time

By Bill James (Nov 04, 2019)

All 3 parts consolidated into one article. Available to all readers.

Reggie and the Game Logs

By Bill James (Nov 04, 2019)

1) Organize the data, 2) Shake it, 3) See what falls out.

It's a Simple Blown Call

By Bill James (Oct 31, 2019)

This isn't actually that complicated.

Introducing the PART System to DRS

By John Dewan (Oct 29, 2019)

A major improvement to Defensive Runs Saved!

Whither the Triple?

By Steven Goldleaf (Oct 26, 2019)

Why has it withered?

By Mark Simon (Oct 25, 2019)

Mark returns to present the remaining winners of 2019's Fielding Bible Awards. It's nice to see a couple comeback players like Brantley and Giolito delivering defensively as well!

By Mark Simon (Oct 25, 2019)

Pitching is the name of the game in this World Series.

I'm Moving On

By Bill James (Oct 24, 2019)

Public Announcement

The Life and Afterlife of Harry Houdini

By Steven Goldleaf (Oct 22, 2019)

A review

By Mark Simon (Oct 17, 2019)

It's Fielding Bible Award season, my favorite time of the year.

You'll Ryu the Day

By Daniel Marks (Oct 12, 2019)

A closer look at the seasons of Hyun-Jin Ryu circa 2019 and Bob Gibson circa 1968, plus a quick review of the 2019 NL Cy Young Award contenders.

2019 Bold Predictions, Reviewed

By Dave Fleming (Oct 12, 2019)

Trying to understand the thinking that motivated a year of bad predictions

Postseason Impact

By Dave Fleming (Oct 07, 2019)

Guest contributor Paresh Gupta offers a new method to measure postseason performance.

2019 Defensive Runs Saved Leaders

By Mark Simon (Oct 01, 2019)

A look back at this season's best defensive players according to DRS.

Luis Castillo Making A Name For Himself

By Alex Vigderman (Sep 30, 2019)

2019 may not have gone well for the Reds but they have to be happy with the development of Luis Castillo, their new ace.

This Year's Minor League Standouts

By Alex Vigderman (Sep 12, 2019)

Alex highlights some remarkable performances from the Minor Leagues this year in this edition of Stat of the Week.

Who Are The NFL's Top Quarterbacks?

By Mark Simon (Sep 05, 2019)

From the young (Mahomes) to the old (Brees), there's loads of depth at quarterback. Mark takes a look at the Total Points Earned leader board to identify the position's best.

Who Was August's Top Defender?

By Mark Simon (Sep 05, 2019)

Javy Baez' glove is something to behold. Mark breaks down Baez' incredible defense in this edition of Stat of the Week.

My last tracer?

By Steven Goldleaf (Sep 04, 2019)

For a while, at least

Being a Good Loser

By Daniel Marks (Sep 03, 2019)

Taking a look at pitchers who pitched great, but got tagged with a loss.

By Mark Simon (Aug 30, 2019)

Mark breaks down the battle for Total Runs leader. Who else, other than our titular heroes, sit atop the league?

World's No. 1 Starting Pitcher Rankings

By Mark Simon (Aug 26, 2019)

The best pitchers in baseball, brought to you by Mark Simon and Bill James' World's No. 1 Starting Pitcher Rankings.

Saberseminar 2019 in Review

By Alex Vigderman (Aug 20, 2019)

Alex recaps a fascinating weekend of sabermetric insights from Saberseminar 2019.

August 18 Poll Report

By Bill James (Aug 18, 2019)

Nobody feels any pain.

August 16 Poll Report

By Bill James (Aug 17, 2019)

Houston, we have a poll.

August 13 Poll Report

By Bill James (Aug 13, 2019)

Hickenlooper hacks down the Coffee Man.

August 12 Poll Report

By Bill James (Aug 12, 2019)

Nothing to see here.

August 10 Poll Report

By Bill James (Aug 10, 2019)

Back to the grind.

Who are the Hottest Teams & Hitters?

By Mark Simon (Aug 09, 2019)

It's scorching in New York these days.

August 6 poll report

By Bill James (Aug 06, 2019)

We will soldier on somehow without Mike Gravel.

Living is Easy

By Steven Goldleaf (Aug 06, 2019)

Predicting is hard. A retrospective look at predictions of the future.

By Mark Simon (Aug 05, 2019)

Hunter Renfoe is best known for his prodigious power. But with a glut of power hitting OFs, the Padres might have held onto him for something else: his defense.

Oh, Say Can You cWPA?

By Daniel Marks (Aug 05, 2019)

Digging into Championship Win Probability Added....

August 3 Poll Report

By Bill James (Aug 04, 2019)

Tulsi torches three rivals.

August 2 Poll Report

By Bill James (Aug 02, 2019)

Yang has the mojo.

August 1 Poll Report

By Bill James (Aug 01, 2019)

Two-day summary; quiet. Debate will surely change SOMETHING.

July 30 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 31, 2019)

Late in the day, I know.

July 28 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 28, 2019)

All Quiet on the Western Front.

July 27 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 27, 2019)

Kamala makes a huge move! Bill makes an argument.

By Steven Goldleaf (Jul 27, 2019)

A lively story of a pitcher’s dead spouse reanimating and advising him about his pitch-selection.

July 25 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 26, 2019)

Julian Castro back to the minors?

July 24 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 25, 2019)

Better late than never

July 22 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 22, 2019)

Booker beats the book.

July 21 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 21, 2019)

Gillibrand up a little.

July 20 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 20, 2019)

Bandwagon comes to a stop. A pause, at the least.

July 19 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 19, 2019)

Submitted for your consideration.

July 18 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 18, 2019)

Inslee on the Outslee

Long Division

By Steven Goldleaf (Jul 17, 2019)

Taking on issues of geography, quality of play, shortening the post-season, unequal chances of winning the playoffs, long BYEs, the reality of rust, and your future occupation of “Science Fiction writ

July 17 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 17, 2019)

Explaining a little more what I am trying to do.

July 16 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 16, 2019)

Biden has lost another step.

July 15 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 15, 2019)

Schultz Schocker.

July 14 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 14, 2019)

Steyer's Debutante Ball.

July 13 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 13, 2019)

Added a couple of things to the method.

July 12 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 12, 2019)

All quiet on the Western Front.

July 11 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 11, 2019)

The list is different.

July 10 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 10, 2019)

Quiet day. Delaney moves up.

By Brian Reiff (Jul 09, 2019)

In this week's second installment of Stat of the Week, Brian breaks down the MLB All-Star rosters just in time for tonight's game!

By Mark Simon (Jul 09, 2019)

Say Hello to Austin Hedges, June's Defensive Player of the Month.

July 9 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 09, 2019)

Say Goodbye to Eric Swalwell His campaign did not Gosowell Say Hello to Tom Steyer I do not think I will be a buyer.

July 8 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 08, 2019)

Hickenlooper beats Booker. Really? Are you sure?

July 7 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 07, 2019)

Quiet poll results. Editor rants.

July 6 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 06, 2019)

Biden is Slidin' .

July 5th Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 05, 2019)

The Warren Wagon has come to a rest.

Fourth of July Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 04, 2019)

It's a Holiday. I still did a report.

July 3 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 03, 2019)

Michael Bennet dominates a poll of the also-rans.

July 2 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 02, 2019)

Is Castro catching fire?

July 1 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jul 01, 2019)

Andrew Yang makes the green list.

June 30 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 30, 2019)

Debate performance hurts Beto.

Testing HoF Polling for Recency Bias

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 30, 2019)

Testes, one, two, one, two….

June 29 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 29, 2019)

Kamala Harris has a really good day.

June 28 Poll Report Yang steps forward

By Bill James (Jun 28, 2019)

Oh, Brave new world, which has such candidates in it.

Poll Report and post-debate comments

By Bill James (Jun 27, 2019)

Booker edges forward.

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 26, 2019)

And there was grammar. And there was grammar issues. And they was bad.

June 25 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 25, 2019)

Wave good-bye to Wayne.

Correcting Bias (Bill's June 9th Poll)

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 25, 2019)

Totally not about race.

June 24 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 24, 2019)

When nothing happens, there is no headline on it.

June 23 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 23, 2019)

We'll be debating soon.

June 22 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 22, 2019)

Trump beats expectations by a wide margin. He's still half of Buttigieg, but better than expected.

Cosmic Debris

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 21, 2019)

Re-reading some favorites from the 1980s

By Bill James (Jun 21, 2019)

For some reason, my Twitter followers do NOT like Bernie Sanders.

Is the NL East a Two-Team Race?

By Dave Fleming (Jun 21, 2019)

Looking at the dogfight that isn't (yet).

June 20 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 20, 2019)

Yang edges up.

By Jon Becker (Jun 19, 2019)

A closer look at the insane run totals from this past weekend's series in Coors.

June 19 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 19, 2019)

Williamson stumbles for the first time.

June 17 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 17, 2019)

Very quiet day.

Runs, RBI and Home Runs

By Bill James (Jun 17, 2019)

Kicking around an old Runs Produced Formula

Father's Day Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 16, 2019)

Kamala Klobbers Klobuchar, Klaws Back a few points in the standings.

June 15 Poll Update

By Bill James (Jun 15, 2019)

Gillibrand continues her run.

June 14th Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 14, 2019)

Cory Booker's bad, horrible day.

By Mark Simon (Jun 13, 2019)

Kevin Kiermaier's is worth marveling over. Let's marvel together.

June 13 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 13, 2019)

John Delaney rallies.

June 12 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 12, 2019)

Swalwell wins and loses.

June 11 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 11, 2019)

Inslee is gaining ground.

Opposition Adjusted Winning Percentage

By Bill James (Jun 11, 2019)

Just a little study.

June 10 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 10, 2019)

A few thoughts after a quiet day at the polling station.

June 9 Poll Report

By Bill James (Jun 09, 2019)

Gillibrand up almost 40% in the last month.

Only To You

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 06, 2019)

A confession, of sorts

Who was May's Top Defensive Player?

By Mark Simon (Jun 05, 2019)

Is Cody Bellinger the league's most valuable player on both sides of the ball? Mark reveals May's Top Defensive Player in this edition of Stat of the Week.

The Walkers

By Bill James (May 31, 2019)

Why yes, I DID mention Roy Cullenbine again. Thanks for asking.

Follow up to Streak Study

By Bill James (May 30, 2019)

Forgot to address this issue yesterday

By Bill James (May 29, 2019)

Research.

Poll Report May 26

By Bill James (May 26, 2019)

Kamala pushes Bernie to the edge of the race.

The Dodgers' Dominant Defense

By Mark Simon (May 24, 2019)

Do all the homers cause us to overlook Cody Bellinger's defense? Mark takes a look at what makes the Dodgers so dangerous defensively.

Poll Report May 22, 2019

By Bill James (May 23, 2019)

A few words of explanation. 5,094.

By Steven Goldleaf (May 22, 2019)

Conclusions about how to expand leagues in the future

By Bill James (May 21, 2019)

Aging research.

By Steven Goldleaf (May 20, 2019)

The Second Division

By Alex Vigderman (May 20, 2019)

Are defensive shifts losing their effectiveness? Alex takes a closer look and in the process introduces a fun new acronym to the lexicon.

By Steven Goldleaf (May 19, 2019)

Revisiting October 10, 1963

By Bill James (May 18, 2019)

A new method.

Poll Results May 14 2019

By Bill James (May 14, 2019)

Warren, Biden gain ground after strong results against Buttigieg and Harris.

Poll Results 5-10-2019

By Bill James (May 10, 2019)

Trump slumps.

Back-of-the-Envelope Thinking

By Steven Goldleaf (May 10, 2019)

Some notes, preliminary to actually studying the subject (note split infinitive)

Poll Results 5-9-2019

By Bill James (May 09, 2019)

Nothing much happening.

Poll Results 5-8-2019

By Bill James (May 08, 2019)

Ryan had a bad day.

Elizabeth Warren Moves Into First Place

By Bill James (May 07, 2019)

Updating and further explaining the polls.

Polling Results May 6 2019

By Bill James (May 06, 2019)

The first published results from my daily Presidential polls.

Introduction to the Polling System

By Bill James (May 06, 2019)

Explaining what I am trying to do with the daily twitter polls. Results posted separately.

Introduction to the Polling System

By Bill James (May 06, 2019)

Explaining what I am trying to do with the daily twitter polls. Results posted separately.

English As She Is Spoke

By Steven Goldleaf (May 05, 2019)

A dissenting opinion

By Mark Simon (May 03, 2019)

The Brewers' Lorenzo Cain has been magnificent with the leather to start the season. Mark takes a closer look at what makes Lo Cain so special.

A Piece of Piffle

By Steven Goldleaf (May 02, 2019)

A Failed Tracer

By Patrick Rowley (Apr 23, 2019)

Play DFS? Patrick introduces SISBets.com, a new tool that every DFS player should know about.

Which Position Is Best in 2019 Draft?

By Bryce Rossler (Apr 19, 2019)

Bryce breaks down what makes defensive line such a deep position in this year's NFL draft.

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 17, 2019)

Or at least a butterfly? The butterfly effect

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 15, 2019)

A Little Alternate History

Master Melvin

By Bill James (Apr 13, 2019)

An article in the tradition of the Guidry/Rice article from 1978. Trying to find the appropriate value for Mel Ott.

Couple of News Items

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 11, 2019)

In today's headlines

Closing the Deal

By Daniel Marks (Apr 07, 2019)

Or, maybe it should be called "What's the Deal with Closers"? Reviewing 50 years of the pitchers who have served in this volatile role.

Shoe Polish Followup

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 06, 2019)

a very brief footnote to my article of March 12th

The Ernie Banks Principle

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 04, 2019)

Taking an argument over from Bill's article to mine, not that anyone has asked me to.

Cash and Cepeda

By Bill James (Apr 04, 2019)

While yet I live, 1960s baseball will never die.

A Nort Shote about Yaz and Kaline

By Bill James (Mar 28, 2019)

Following up on a Twitter Poll

By Daniel Marks (Mar 27, 2019)

Talking about Bill James, Project Scoresheet, the 1869 Red Stockings, and more...

Which Team Will Surprise in 2019?

By Dave Fleming (Mar 27, 2019)

It's not Baltimore. Sorry, Orioles fans.

By Mark Simon (Mar 27, 2019)

This week, Mark uses Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics to identify last season's over and underachieving pitchers.

10 Bold Predictions for 2019

By Dave Fleming (Mar 23, 2019)

With apologies to Lin-Manuel Miranda.

By Mark Simon (Mar 21, 2019)

Can Defense-Independent Batting Statistics tell us who overachieved and underachieved in 2018? YES!

Bob Smith

By Bill James (Mar 17, 2019)

Memories

2019 SABR Analytics Conference Recap

By Alex Vigderman (Mar 14, 2019)

Alex runs down some of the highlights from 2019's SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix.

Tracing the Tracer-master

By Steven Goldleaf (Mar 12, 2019)

another hole poked in another baseball anecdote

A most impressive league

By Steven Goldleaf (Mar 11, 2019)

Applying a little retrospective vision to the NL of the 1960s

The Bit-Too-Soon 2010's All-Decade Team

By Daniel Marks (Mar 11, 2019)

Because, why wait until the decade is over? Also, I celebrate a milestone.

Running on Bryce Harper's Arm

By Mark Simon (Mar 07, 2019)

A lot has been made about Bryce Harper's defense. Mark zeroes in on Harper's outfield arm.

By Bill James (Mar 06, 2019)

This is the most important article in this 13-part series. Please read and discuss.

By Bill James (Mar 05, 2019)

Trying to look for the big picture.

My Lunch (sort of) with Rob Neyer

By Daniel Marks (Mar 04, 2019)

The 2018 CASEY Award winner pays a visit to Reds Country

By Steven Goldleaf (Mar 03, 2019)

Now it’s time for—NEW RULES!

21st Century Pitchers

By Bill James (Mar 01, 2019)

Two articles left in the series. After this one.

The Roger Clemens era

By Bill James (Feb 28, 2019)

At least we are arguing now about seasons that you remember.

The Dave Stieb Era

By Bill James (Feb 27, 2019)

The ninth article in a continuing series.

The Tom Seaver Era

By Bill James (Feb 26, 2019)

The best pitchers of the early 1970s, season by season.

The Pitching Leaders of the 1960s

By Bill James (Feb 26, 2019)

I posted this article yesterday, but somehow it got posted with an archive date which caused it to disappear, so I don't actually know whether it was ever visible to the readers. So I'm re-posting it.

The Rise of Outfield Shifts

By Mark Simon (Feb 22, 2019)

Ban the shift? Which one? Mark takes a look at the rise of outfield shifts and the teams using them most often.

Game Scores Versus Game Scores (2)

By Bill James (Feb 22, 2019)

Comparing the two Game Score systems.

By Daniel Marks (Feb 21, 2019)

Looking back at trades that didn't waste any time making a good first impression

The Early Cy Young Seasons

By Bill James (Feb 20, 2019)

Fifth in our series of articles arguing about the best pitcher of each season. The Cy Young Award winners are added to the conversation.

The Carters and the Cunninghams

By Bill James (Feb 19, 2019)

Something to do while I can't sleep.

The Bob Feller Era

By Bill James (Feb 19, 2019)

Fourth article in the series.

The Grove and Hubbell Era

By Bill James (Feb 18, 2019)

Third article in a long series.

How Old is Bryce Harper?

By Dave Fleming (Feb 18, 2019)

Turning a question around on itself.

On Collusion

By Bill James (Feb 15, 2019)

1986 is dead and gone, folks.

By Bill James (Feb 15, 2019)

Posing a question

The Target Score

By Bill James (Feb 15, 2019)

Second set of articles from the series.

Screwballs and Experts

By Steven Goldleaf (Feb 15, 2019)

Part One of a possible two-part article

How Good is Kyler Murray?

By Sports Info Solutions Staff (Feb 14, 2019)

*Trigger warning to fans of the Oakland A's

More Data I Must Have More Data

By Bill James (Feb 14, 2019)

Beginning a 12-part series. I'll open it up to comments in a couple of days; I just don't like that thing that happens when the discussion gets ahead of the articles and makes a mess of the argument.

By John Dewan (Feb 12, 2019)

Order the Rookie Football Handbook now!

Remembering Robbie

By Dave Fleming (Feb 08, 2019)

A quick note on the passing of a legend.

Top NFL Draft Prospects

By Nathan Cooper, John Todd, and Mark Simon (Feb 07, 2019)

Now that the Super Bowl has come and gone, it's time to scout the NFL draft.

Distinguishing the SHEEP from the GOAT

By Steven Goldleaf (Feb 04, 2019)

Separating Stars and Super-stars

By Bill James (Feb 02, 2019)

Nine Pages of Research and 13 pages of rambling about this, that and the other.

Previewing the Super Bowl Offenses

By John Dewan (Jan 31, 2019)

Previewing the Super Bowl, John identifies the most important thing each team's offense must do to win on Sunday.

On Babe Ruth Lost In Time

By Bill James (Jan 31, 2019)

Jane Leavy's got her thing; I got mine.

By John Dewan (Jan 25, 2019)

John recognizes two friends, Bill and Rob, on some recent accomplishments.

The Recency Error

By Steven Goldleaf (Jan 25, 2019)

...which came between The Georgian Error and the Victorian Error in the UK

Active Players on a Hall of Fame Path

By John Dewan (Jan 23, 2019)

Using Bill's Hall of Fame Value Standard, John checks in on those active players with a shot at Cooperstown.

Finding Nimmo

By Dave Fleming (Jan 18, 2019)

A great hitter hides in the Big Apple.

The Hall of Fame Value Standard Part 2

By John Dewan (Jan 16, 2019)

Bill's new Half of Fame Value Standard applies to pitchers too. John looks at some of the more interesting names on this year's ballot.

By John Dewan (Jan 12, 2019)

Poor, poor Cody Parkey.

On Un-Earned Runs

By Bill James (Jan 11, 2019)

Reconsidering

The Hall of Fame Value Standard

By John Dewan (Jan 10, 2019)

In-time for Hall of Fame season, John introduces a new Bill James original stat, the Hall of Fame Value Standard!

Age Productivity Research

By Bill James (Jan 09, 2019)

Research

Infra Dig

By Steven Goldleaf (Jan 07, 2019)

Sympathy for O'Malley: "Please, allow me to introduce myself...."

Jack Kralick?

By Bill James (Jan 04, 2019)

Really?

Harold Staub and Rusty Baines

By Bill James (Jan 03, 2019)

Welcome to the Cooperstown, Rusty.

Displaced Persons follow-up

By Steven Goldleaf (Jan 02, 2019)

ten days afterwards, some thoughts

By Daniel Marks (Dec 29, 2018)

Welcome to Cooperstown's newest attraction

Ban the Shift?

By John Dewan (Dec 27, 2018)

John presents the arguments against banning or limiting the shift.

Displaced Persons

By Steven Goldleaf (Dec 22, 2018)

or Directors of Photography or Decimal Places or Dave Parker or Diastolic Pressure….

2018 MLB Year-End Awards Part 2

By John Dewan (Dec 20, 2018)

John hands out awards for some the game's significant though less heralded accomplishments.

By Daniel Marks (Dec 16, 2018)

Taking an early look at the 2019 "Hall of Fame Tracker", with some history and some early observations.

2018 MLB Year-End Awards

By John Dewan (Dec 11, 2018)

Love this SotW! Perhaps not the most prestigious of awards but unique and important nevertheless.

POWER BALL by Rob Neyer

By Steven Goldleaf (Dec 09, 2018)

I told the author that I wanted two copies and a power scrotum to hold them in. So far only the one copy has arrived.

2019 BBWAA Hall of Fame Contest Update

By Daniel Marks (Dec 08, 2018)

Analyzing the BBWAA Hall of Fame predictions submitted by our member community

The Man Who Broke the Hall-of-Fame

By Dave Fleming (Dec 04, 2018)

Finding a surprise culprit for the crowded Hall-of-Fame ballot.

Leavy Rhymes With Heavy

By Steven Goldleaf (Dec 03, 2018)

a review of THE BIG FELLA: BABE RUTH AND THE WORLD HE CREATED

The Rookies of 2018

By Bill James (Nov 27, 2018)

Finishing the series from a month ago, about rookies.

By Daniel Marks (Nov 24, 2018)

Our 3rd annual installment of a Bill James Online member contest

2018 Bold Predictions, Revisited

By Dave Fleming (Nov 20, 2018)

How did we do on our predictions for 2018?

Role Call

By Daniel Marks (Nov 19, 2018)

A review of pitchers who transformed from ineffective starters to outstanding relievers.

The Best Player, Revisited

By Dave Fleming (Nov 15, 2018)

Checking in at the end of a career.

A Look at NFL & NBA Power Ratings

By John Dewan (Nov 14, 2018)

Bucks and Blazers atop the NBA Power Rankings??? John takes a look at the NBA and NFL Bill James Power Rankings.

Who are the best defensive free agents?

By Mark Simon (Nov 07, 2018)

Turning towards free agency, whose glove puts him in line for a big payday?

Margaret, Are You Grieving?

By Steven Goldleaf (Nov 07, 2018)

Over Golden Glove Unleaving?

The Strikeout Push/Pull Effect

By Bill James (Nov 02, 2018)

Measuring the effects which could be pushing strikeouts upward over time. This is some serious research, Jack.

2018 Fielding Bible Awards

By John Dewan (Oct 29, 2018)

Presenting the winners of 2018's Fielding Bible Awards!

Disappointments and Surprises III

By Bill James (Oct 25, 2018)

The old car sputtered and shuddered to come to life, but once the gears were in motion it ran like a dream.

IMPOSING A NARRATIVE

By Steven Goldleaf (Oct 24, 2018)

And I do mean “imposing,” in both senses: What TV announcers persist in doing, and should not do

Disappointments and Surprises II

By Bill James (Oct 24, 2018)

Rookies who looked great but didn't reach the goal.

On Winning and Inevitability

By Dave Fleming (Oct 23, 2018)

Musings about the 2018 Red Sox, on the eve of the World Series.

Disappointments and Surprises 1

By Bill James (Oct 23, 2018)

Explaining the method

By John Dewan (Oct 22, 2018)

Time to take a look at 2018's Fielding Bible Award outfield candidates.

Disappointments and Surprises Intro

By Bill James (Oct 22, 2018)

Articles to follow

Portsiders in the Pen

By Daniel Marks (Oct 20, 2018)

Reviewing lefty relievers, including LOOGYs and the Cuban Missle.

Extending the Quick Note from Yesterday

By Bill James (Oct 18, 2018)

Responding to a reader's question.

Fielding Bible Awards Preview (Part I)

By John Dewan (Oct 17, 2018)

In this week's Stat of the Week, John breaks down the Fielding Bible Award infield candidates.

Quick Note about Rookies

By Bill James (Oct 17, 2018)

And Playing Time

By John Dewan (Oct 12, 2018)

The Handbook is here!

2018 Defensive Runs Saved Leaders

By Mark Simon (Oct 02, 2018)

Want to know who the league's best defenders were in 2018? Mark has the answers.

By Bill James (Oct 02, 2018)

Title is self-explanatory?

.300 revisited

By Steven Goldleaf (Oct 01, 2018)

a look backwards, and a little bit forward

Five Tool Players

By Bill James (Sep 23, 2018)

Continuing a discussion from Twitter.

By Alex Vigderman (Sep 19, 2018)

Using minor league DRS, Alex looks at some of the game's best defensive prospects.

The Curse of All Curses

By Bill James (Sep 19, 2018)

Expected and Actual World Championships.

By John Dewan (Sep 14, 2018)

The facts behind Tommy John surgery.

Old Blue Eye and the Freak

By Dave Fleming (Sep 08, 2018)

What can a pitcher's past tell us about their future?

Who was August's top defensive player?

By John Dewan (Sep 04, 2018)

Playing a deeper center field has allowed Adam Engel to rob more homers and make a bigger impact defensively.

Olympic baseball

By Steven Goldleaf (Sep 02, 2018)

One way to get me to watch the Olympics

Soto and Acuna

By Bill James (Sep 01, 2018)

A longer answer to a Hey, Bill question.

Shifting is at an all-time high

By Brian Reiff (Aug 31, 2018)

25 teams increased their shift frequency this year. But can they employ the strategy more effectively?

Fra Lippo Lippi

By Steven Goldleaf (Aug 31, 2018)

Not the Browning Version

Smells Like Teen Spirit

By Daniel Marks (Aug 26, 2018)

"Here we are now, entertain us." All about teens in the Majors.....

Catcher Framing and Winning In Sync

By Mark Simon (Aug 24, 2018)

We know that Strike Zone Runs Saved can identify the best pitch framers in baseball. But what impact does pitch framing itself have on Wins and Losses?

Balk

By Bill James (Aug 21, 2018)

The Balk Rule: It wasn't a problem when there was only one umpire in a game.

The 2018 NL MVP candidates

By Bill James (Aug 19, 2018)

Poking around in the NL MVP-related data.

The Diamondbacks' Amazing Defense

By Mark Simon (Aug 10, 2018)

Roster depth and an increase use of the shift have catapulted the Diamondbacks from one of baseball's worst defensive teams to one of its best.

Munson, Nettles, and Rickey

By Steven Goldleaf (Aug 09, 2018)

A few memories I thought I'd share

Even More Willies?

By Steven Goldleaf (Aug 05, 2018)

An attempt to see if the identical twins might be triplets

Who was July's top defensive player?

By John Dewan (Aug 03, 2018)

Just how good was Keon Broxton in July? Thanks to a few amazing plays, he led baseball in DRS for the month.

By Bill James (Jul 30, 2018)

Let me try this again.

By Bill James (Jul 30, 2018)

It is what it says it is.

Good Years and Flat Tires

By Bill James (Jul 28, 2018)

Just messing around.

Tru Value

By Steven Goldleaf (Jul 28, 2018)

More software than hardware

2018's Top MLB Rookies

By Mark Simon (Jul 26, 2018)

Shohei Ohtani is incredible. But you already knew that. Which other rookies deserve our attention?

Privacy and the Past

By Bill James (Jul 20, 2018)

Re-thinking record keeping.

By Dave Fleming (Jul 18, 2018)

Asking the question no one seems to be asking.

The 33% Solution

By Steven Goldleaf (Jul 15, 2018)

A Mental Construct, using made-up numbers. Bonus points for catching the allusions to Denis Leary or Martin Short..

By Mark Simon (Jul 11, 2018)

Using Total Runs, Mark breaks down the All-Star game rosters. The fans nailed it in the AL but how'd they do in the Senior Circuit?

By Bill James (Jul 03, 2018)

It works well, but it doesn't work PERFECTLY.

Who were MLB's top defenders in June?

By John Dewan (Jul 02, 2018)

Alex Gordon may be struggling with the bat but he still flashes the leather. Who else made the list of June's best defenders?

Baseball's Biggest Defensive Improvers

By Brian Reiff (Jul 02, 2018)

Led by a trio of NL shortstops, Brian takes a look at a few players registering the biggest defensive improvements over last season.

My Best Imitation of Branch Rickey

By Steven Goldleaf (Jul 01, 2018)

developing a 17-year-old notion from the Historical Abstract

The New World Order

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 26, 2018)

With reference to how the Old World monkeys used to do it

Evaluating the Phillies' Infield Shifts

By Andrew Kyne (Jun 14, 2018)

The Phillies are sooo bad at shifting this year. How bad are they??? Just ask Jake Arrieta.

By Mark Simon (Jun 08, 2018)

For years, Clayton Kershaw dominated the World's Best Starting Pitcher Rankings. Mark looks at baseball's new starting pitcher landscape.

Best of the Best

By Dave Fleming (Jun 06, 2018)

Which teams can claim the best hitter and the best pitcher in a league, and how have they fared?

Who is May's top defensive player?

By John Dewan (Jun 01, 2018)

Just how good has Lorenzo Cain been defensively? Well, John is here to tell you!

Getting Out of a Hole

By Steven Goldleaf (May 29, 2018)

Is there an objective trading policy that bad teams should stick to?

By Mark Simon (May 25, 2018)

Pulling fly balls is a good thing. Mark takes a look at 3 middle infielders doing just that to level up.

Parker, Rice and Foster

By Bill James (May 24, 2018)

Addendum; response to reader comment.

Superstars

By Bill James (May 24, 2018)

Bill just can't shut up about this Superstar nonsense.

So Who Is a Superstar?

By Bill James (May 21, 2018)

A companion article to "So What is a Superstar", posted about two weeks ago.

By Steven Goldleaf (May 21, 2018)

Critiquing WAR by a sample size of one

By Alex Vigderman (May 17, 2018)

Probably not the way he envisioned it going down but let's talk about Robbie Cano's Hall of Fame case!

By Alex Vigderman (May 15, 2018)

Minor league Statcast data! Baseball Info Solutions is at it again.

3K? Or No Way?

By Daniel Marks (May 12, 2018)

Reviewing the curious case of Nick Markakis and his pursuit of 3,000 hits.

The Animal Farmization of Win Shares

By Steven Goldleaf (May 11, 2018)

Thoughts on Loss Shares

So What is a Superstar?

By Bill James (May 10, 2018)

Bryce is not just Brentz anymore.

Mike Trout's First Rival

By Dave Fleming (May 09, 2018)

A generation's Mantle finally gets his Mays.

Who was April's top defender?

By Mark Simon (May 04, 2018)

Mark breaks down what makes Matt Chapman so great. As an A's fan, I can attest to his greatness. It's pretty great. Really great.

Moving on to Left Field

By Bill James (May 03, 2018)

The best left fielders of the early 20th century.

By Keegan Abdoo (Apr 27, 2018)

With the NFL draft upon us, Keegan visualizes how accurately the top projected QBs throw to each part of the field.

Shortstops of the last 30 years

By Bill James (Apr 27, 2018)

You remember these guys. Even if you're young, you remember these guys.

An Application of My Theory

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 25, 2018)

Trying to see how shocking my time-line bias theory would look in practice

Wilbur, Mickey, and True Blue

By Daniel Marks (Apr 25, 2018)

A tale of three lefties

Shortstop from 1963 to the late 1980s

By Bill James (Apr 25, 2018)

Continuing the series of articles ranking the best players at each position.

Shortstops of the 1960s

By Bill James (Apr 23, 2018)

Resuming the series of articles that I left off in February.

The Great Oz(zie)

By Dave Fleming (Apr 19, 2018)

The Braves second baseman is having a torrid start. We should have seen this coming.

The Cohen/MacPhail Thesis

By Bill James (Apr 11, 2018)

Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals. . . .general research and argument.

By Bill James (Apr 07, 2018)

If a pitcher was good last year, how do we estimate the odds that he will be good again this year?

Is There a Draft in Here?

By Steven Goldleaf (Apr 03, 2018)

A brief interruption of my series on small, big, and bigger improvements in baseball and, ultimately, human society

By Mark Simon (Apr 03, 2018)

Can Defense Independent Pitching Statistics tell us which pitchers got lucky and which might see some positive regression?

Which Team Will Surprise in 2018?

By Dave Fleming (Mar 28, 2018)

Are we still doing this? Yes, we're still doing this.

Presumptive Value

By Bill James (Mar 23, 2018)

Outlining a method which could, in theory, give us access to hundreds of currently inaccessible questions.

Ten Bold Predictions for 2018

By Dave Fleming (Mar 22, 2018)

Now featuring 10% Mike Trout content.

The Outfield Shift Has Arrived

By Alex Vigderman (Mar 22, 2018)

Defensive shifts are becoming more sophisticated and Alex breaks it down for us.

By Bill James (Mar 20, 2018)

Rock Chalk Talk

A couple of bigger things

By Steven Goldleaf (Mar 18, 2018)

A wider look at those two little things I was discussing last time

Ranking the Top Starting Rotations

By John Dewan (Mar 15, 2018)

Using Bill's Starting Pitcher Rankings, John previews the league's best and most improved rotations.

Diamond vs. Cash

By Daniel Marks (Mar 14, 2018)

Looking at anomaly seasons......

A Couple of Little Things

By Steven Goldleaf (Mar 10, 2018)

Intro to a more complex and controversial article

The Kid Who Could Only Hit Doubles

By Dave Fleming (Mar 09, 2018)

A new way of understanding Billy Hamilton.

Praising Arizona

By Mark Simon (Mar 08, 2018)

The D'Backs lost a big bat this off-season in JD Martinez but could a couple under-the-radar acquisitions keep them competitive in a tough NL West?

Held and Hansen

By Bill James (Mar 07, 2018)

Back to the greatest shortstops ever.

Bill James Handbook 2018 - 50%Off

By John Dewan (Feb 23, 2018)

Buy the 2018 Handbook for half off today!

By Dave Fleming (Feb 23, 2018)

Asking an inevitable question.

Norway Skiing Away with Medals Race

By John Dewan (Feb 19, 2018)

With the US under-performing in freestyle skiing and speed skating, Norway is pacing the field in the medal count.

What Does Yu Darvish Bring To The Cubs?

By Mark Simon (Feb 14, 2018)

The Cubs made a big splash this week signing Yu Darvish. So after recent injuries and a World Series implosion, what should they expect?

The Billy Grabarkewitz All Star Team

By Daniel Marks (Feb 10, 2018)

My apologies to the Ken Phelps All Star Team......

Does the Public Prefer HItting?

By Bill James (Feb 08, 2018)

An empirical study of offense and attendance.

From World War II to Dick Groat

By Bill James (Feb 08, 2018)

Sections 109 to 112 of the series.

2018 Winter Olympics Projections

By John Dewan (Feb 07, 2018)

John previews 2018's Winter Olympics with a projected medal count.

Appling and Vaughan

By Bill James (Feb 07, 2018)

Continuing the series.

.300

By Steven Goldleaf (Feb 02, 2018)

Or technically .299500

Starting with Honus

By Bill James (Feb 01, 2018)

Entries 99-105 of this series.

By John Dewan (Jan 31, 2018)

John breaks down this Sunday's matchup and why each team's running game will prove key.

Wrapping up Third Base

By Bill James (Jan 31, 2018)

Sorry it has taken me so long to get back to this.

Career Home Runs and MVP Awards Shares

By Special Guest Author: Martin Schneider (Jan 29, 2018)

In the first of a new series of reader-submitted articles, Martin explores the relationship between bombs and MVP voting.

What's the Deal with Omar?

By John Dewan (Jan 23, 2018)

There's buzz surrounding the newly Hall-eligible Omar Vizquel. But did he flash enough leather across three decades to get in? John takes a closer look.

Brain Doodles

By Bill James (Jan 23, 2018)

Three unrelated thoughts. I wouldn't really call them "thoughts".

Hall of Fame Twitter Chatter

By John Dewan (Jan 19, 2018)

John provides info on Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen about their Hall of Fame worthiness using Bill James’ Win Shares.

We can call it the Brooks Robinson Era

By Bill James (Jan 19, 2018)

Beginning with Al Rosen. Brooks never played against Rosen, but could have. They both played in the American League in 1955 and 1956, but never in the same game.

Third Basemen of 1900 to 1950

By Bill James (Jan 18, 2018)

The dominant third basemen of the first half of the last century.

Comparing a Player Outside His Era

By Bill James (Jan 17, 2018)

An exchange of ideas with a friend. My portion is inexplicably long-winded.

Andruw of Center Field

By Bill James (Jan 15, 2018)

Because an orderly presentation of an argument is not possible in 280 characters. . .

Jay Bruce Re-Joins the HMS Mets

By Dave Fleming (Jan 12, 2018)

Shuffling the deck chairs.

By John Dewan (Jan 11, 2018)

John takes a closer look at the hottest teams entering the second round of the NFL playoffs using Bill's Power Rankings.

Hall of Fame Metric Similarity Scores

By Daniel Marks (Jan 07, 2018)

What happens when Bill James metrics intersect?

Getting us to the 2017 World Series

By Bill James (Jan 05, 2018)

Second Base from Jackie to Joe

By Bill James (Jan 04, 2018)

Second basemen of the post-war era.

Baseball I Don’t Care About

By Steven Goldleaf (Jan 03, 2018)

"Baseball in the Garden of Eden: the secret history of the early game" by John Thorn

From Lajoie to Doerr

By Bill James (Jan 02, 2018)

Second basemen from 1900 to 1948.

Jim Creighton for Hall of Fame?

By Steven Goldleaf (Dec 29, 2017)

Why Not? I'll Tell You Why Not.

From Kent Hrbek to Cupid Childs

By Bill James (Dec 29, 2017)

Continuing the series

Why Not Lou?

By John Dewan (Dec 28, 2017)

Lou Whitaker sits outside of the Hall of Fame looking in while newly elected teammate, Alan Trammell warms his feet by the fire. But why? John looks to Bill's Hall of Fame Monitor for answers.

By Bill James (Dec 28, 2017)

Part of a series

2018 Gallery of Renown - Voting Results

By Daniel Marks (Dec 26, 2017)

The voting has closed, and the results are in. It's a Braves New World.....

2017 Top Minor League Defenders

By John Dewan (Dec 22, 2017)

Curious who MLB's future defensive whizzes are? John looks at MiLB's top defenders by DRS.

From Jacques Fournier to John Mayberry

By Bill James (Dec 21, 2017)

Continuing the series.

Now we get to the Great First Baseman

By Bill James (Dec 20, 2017)

Continuing the series from last week.

Catchers of the Last 40 years

By Bill James (Dec 14, 2017)

Sorry it has taken me a couple of days to post this one.

Jack Be Durable

By Dave Fleming (Dec 13, 2017)

Some thoughts on the newest member of the Hall of Fame.

Yogi's Years

By Bill James (Dec 11, 2017)

Continuing the series. This was supposed to appear this morning at sunup. Apparently I screwed up the process. Sorry.

Tracking the Hall of Fame Tracker

By Daniel Marks (Dec 10, 2017)

Taking an early look at the "Hall of Fame Tracker", with some history and some early observations

Ranking the Greatest Catchers

By Bill James (Dec 08, 2017)

Continuing the series begun yesterday.

The Top Ten Catchers of Whenever

By Bill James (Dec 07, 2017)

Starting a series of articles. I promise to finish at least the first six.

Debut Tracers

By Steven Goldleaf (Dec 06, 2017)

Featuring some tall tales, a glimpse of Marilyn Monroe, and a circumcision.

By Daniel Marks (Dec 06, 2017)

Listing all of the entries, and looking at some summary data

The Flat Bat Award 2017

By John Dewan (Dec 02, 2017)

Curious who 2017's best bunters were? Look no further!

The Time I Almost Batted Against Tom Seaver

By Steven Goldleaf (Nov 30, 2017)

True story, bro

How Sabermetrics Has Ruined Baseball

By Steven Goldleaf (Nov 28, 2017)

OK, non-clickbait title: How Sabermetrics Is Capable of Ruining Baseball

The Living Hall of Fame

By Bill James (Nov 27, 2017)

Timeline research.

A Visit With MLB's Historian

By Steven Goldleaf (Nov 26, 2017)

Resulting in a thorny literary discussion

MVP Followup

By Bill James (Nov 20, 2017)

Addressing side issues related to the Judge/Altuve article I posted earlier.

2017 NL Cy Young Award

By Daniel Marks (Nov 19, 2017)

Reviewing the outcome, and some thoughts on what it may (or may not) imply

Cannon Arms in 2017

By John Dewan (Nov 17, 2017)

Using Outfield Arm Runs Saved, John looks at 2017's most devastating outfield cannons.

Judge and Altuve

By Bill James (Nov 17, 2017)

Two unequal candidates for the American League Award.

HBP tracers

By Steven Goldleaf (Nov 15, 2017)

Vivid memories of being struck (or striking someone) with a baseball

By Bill James (Nov 13, 2017)

How do the MVP candidates of 2017 compare to other years?

By John Dewan (Nov 13, 2017)

New for 2018, the Bill James Handbook now includes three years of injury data from Baseball Info Solutions!

The 2017 Fielding Bible Awards

By John Dewan (Oct 31, 2017)

And we present the very best defenders of 2017!

The Note

By Bill James (Oct 31, 2017)

About the handwriting in the Ramsey case.

The Bill James Handbook 2018 ships 11/1

By John Dewan (Oct 30, 2017)

The title says it all!

Three Birds, One Stone

By Dave Fleming (Oct 28, 2017)

What is the problem with pitchers is all of the time they spend not doing anything?

How Much You'd Like to Bet

By Steven Goldleaf (Oct 27, 2017)

A fictional look at where the 1919 Sox might have gone wrong

The Top 100 Relievers of All Time

By Bill James (Oct 27, 2017)

Statistical ranking.

Rookie Scores

By Bill James (Oct 24, 2017)

Outlining a method to sort rookies into levels.

By Daniel Marks (Oct 23, 2017)

Revisiting and updating a mid-2016 article

By John Dewan (Oct 19, 2017)

In the second of a two-part series, John takes a look at the Fielding Bible Award favorites in the outfield, on the mound, and amongst utility players.

Two unrelated Essays

By Bill James (Oct 18, 2017)

Catchers and Quaterbacks wasting our time. . . .

By John Dewan (Oct 16, 2017)

The first in a two part series, John examines 2017's best defenders and Fielding Bible Award contenders.

A Quality Start in 1965

By Steven Goldleaf (Oct 15, 2017)

...wasn't worth all that much, apparently. A very tightly focused variation on Bill’s Deserved Wins Thesis.

The Happy Years

By Bill James (Oct 14, 2017)

Whose turn is it to win now? And how do we know?

By Bill James (Oct 10, 2017)

A funhouse mirror of fact and fact.

By John Dewan (Sep 27, 2017)

Andrelton Simmons and Charlie Blackmon for MVP? John previews the AL and NL MVP races looking at the Total Runs leaderboard.

By Bill James (Sep 27, 2017)

The list, and notes

Updates on the 50 Superstars Project

By Bill James (Sep 23, 2017)

Explaining and updating what we have done.

May You Stay Forever Young(s)

By Daniel Marks (Sep 23, 2017)

Having a "Pep" Talk regarding a Hall of Famer.....

A Review

By Steven Goldleaf (Sep 23, 2017)

.... of Baseball’s Peerless Semi-Pros: The Brooklyn Bushwicks of Dexter Park by Thomas Barthel

Explaining the 50 Superstars Project

By Bill James (Sep 21, 2017)

How do we decide who really qualifies?

Corey Kluber Rises to the Top

By John Dewan (Sep 20, 2017)

There's a new World's #1 Staring Pitcher. John looks at Klubot's ascent and how he's wrestled the title away from a couple of other pitchers you may have heard of.

Tracers

By Steven Goldleaf (Sep 18, 2017)

One small tracer, and a discussion of tracers in the larger sense

Ozzie and the MVP

By Dave Fleming (Sep 16, 2017)

Some thoughts about Ozzie Smith, and the current MVP discussion.

2017 Shift Slowdown

By John Dewan (Sep 11, 2017)

John looks at the shifting dynamics of The Shift.

You and I Have Memories

By Steven Goldleaf (Sep 09, 2017)

Longer than the road that stretches out ahead.....

Pitch to Contact

By Bill James (Sep 08, 2017)

Is it best to pitch to contact?

Hot Teams and Cold, Dead Subjects

By Bill James (Sep 05, 2017)

A large study of hot teams and cold teams finds an actual effect.

From the Rejected Pile

By Steven Goldleaf (Aug 31, 2017)

A rejected article from the spring, published late this summer

By Daniel Marks (Aug 29, 2017)

Talking WAR, Norse Mythology, Ian Kinsler, Inherit the Wind....You know, the usual stuff

Koufax and Wes Ferrell

By Bill James (Aug 28, 2017)

Responding to things posted by the readers.

That Great Young Pitcher

By Bill James (Aug 25, 2017)

How often does a good young starting pitcher suddenly fall off a cliff?

The Greatest Strikeout Seasons Ever

By Dave Fleming (Aug 25, 2017)

Using some new math to answer an old question.

Chris Sale Chases Pedro

By Dave Fleming (Aug 18, 2017)

Trying to understand strikeouts, contexts, and absolute limits.

By John Dewan (Aug 18, 2017)

Mookie Betts may be having a down year offensively but you can't fault him for his defense, which tops the league. John takes a look at the game's best and worst defenders.

Cleanup

By Bill James (Aug 15, 2017)

Finishing up the long series.

Lady Luck and the 20-Game Winner

By Bill James (Aug 14, 2017)

If you see a turtle on a fence post, somebody put him up there. The same with a 20-game winner.

Trading for Lucroy

By John Dewan (Aug 11, 2017)

Will Jonathan Lucroy help out in Colorado? John takes a closer look at what the former All-Star must do to help a surging Rockies team.

Luck, and the Cy Young Award

By Bill James (Aug 11, 2017)

Some years, Cy Young couldn't win the Cy Young Award.

The Could Be Hall of Famers

By Bill James (Aug 10, 2017)

Given enough luck, Michael Dukakis could have been President.

Fortune and Fame

By Bill James (Aug 09, 2017)

Movie Star Luck

By Bill James (Aug 08, 2017)

How exactly the numbers get crunched.

Beltre and the 3,000-Hit Club

By John Dewan (Aug 08, 2017)

Now that Adrian Beltre's reach 3,000 hits, who's next? Some on the list might surprise you.

Tough Luck Seasons

By Bill James (Aug 07, 2017)

Gloom, Despair, and Agony on me. . .

The Cooperstown Sox

By Dave Fleming (Aug 06, 2017)

How many Hall-of-Famers can you find on one team's roster?

The Someday Knuckleball

By Steven Goldleaf (Aug 04, 2017)

Fiction, but much more of historical and argumentative value than literary merit.

Rabbit's Foot Seasons

By Bill James (Aug 04, 2017)

The luckiest seasons for each franchise. . .

Lucky Bastards

By Bill James (Aug 03, 2017)

The luckiest and unluckiest pitchers of all time, in a career.

The Career Won-Lost Record

By Bill James (Aug 02, 2017)

Over the course of a career, does the Won-Lost record become a fair test for a pitcher?

Deadline Note

By Bill James (Jul 31, 2017)

Watching the deadline shows.

By Steven Goldleaf (Jul 25, 2017)

Smart or Dumb?

Defensive Transitions from the Minors

By John Dewan (Jul 25, 2017)

In his brief stint in the Bigs, Matt Chapman has already saved the A's 8 runs with his glove. This comes of no surprise to John who's tracked Chapman's excellent defense since the minors.

By John Dewan (Jul 18, 2017)

How'd the fans fare in their All Star Game selections? John says "not bad!"

Victory and the Paternity Test Results

By Steven Goldleaf (Jul 17, 2017)

With nary a mention of the Panda

All Time AL & NL All Star Rosters

By Daniel Marks (Jul 16, 2017)

Picking all-time NL & AL all star rosters...but using modern selection rules

By Steven Goldleaf (Jul 12, 2017)

A continuation of my prior article, containing allusions to the movie "Chinatown," a John Lennon tune, the ‘90s TV sit-com “Martin,” Batman and my former scoutmaster.

The Best Baserunning Teams

By John Dewan (Jul 07, 2017)

The title says it all.

By John Dewan (Jul 01, 2017)

Miguel Montero may not have been right to criticize Jake Arrieta but he also wasn't incorrect. That said, he should probably spend some of his newly acquired free time in front of the mirror.

You Say You Want a Revolution?

By Dave Fleming (Jun 29, 2017)

What the best teams in baseball might be telling us about the future of the game.

By Daniel Marks (Jun 25, 2017)

How do postseason games end? A historical review.

Scherzer On Top

By John Dewan (Jun 20, 2017)

Max Scherzer sits atop Bill's World's #1 Starting Pitcher Rankings.

Coming Home

By Dave Fleming (Jun 20, 2017)

Thoughts on a return.

The Right Weight

By Bill James (Jun 19, 2017)

Follow up research to yesterday's article.

Scherzer's Time

By Bill James (Jun 19, 2017)

Is Scherzer really better than Kershaw?

We Don't Need to Abolish the Shift

By John Dewan (Jun 14, 2017)

Abolish the shift? Not so fast.

By Steven Goldleaf (Jun 10, 2017)

Seven thousand words about Halberstam’s OCTOBER 1964, the first six thousand a statistically oriented close reading, and the last thousand a discursive personal essay.

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