In 1990, White Sox outfielder Iván Calderon led the league in grounding into a double play, hitting into 26 rally-killers. He was also caught stealing 16 times.
Backing up: the genesis for this article was very random: I saw Ivan Calderon’s face on the top left-hand corner of the Baseball-Reference page, and I realized I hadn’t ever looked at his career. I had no idea how many homers he had ended up with, or where he had played his final games, or what his career batting totals looked like. 213 homers? Didn’t he wind up in Toronto?
Calderon hit far fewer homerun that I would’ve imagined: 102. That’s surprising. I think that I first noticed Calderon when he hit 28 homeruns for the White Sox in 1987. He was twenty-five years old, and you would expect a young player who hits 28 homeruns right before offensive numbers steroided into the stratosphere to collect a decent number of career dingers. But Calderon’s career was short: he was out of the majors by thirty-two.
And he’s gone: he was murdered in a bar in Puerto Rico in 2003, when he was just forty-one years old. I have no useful insights into that, of course.
Returning to Ivan Calderon’s 1990 season: those 26 GIDP’s represent the only Black Ink on his Baseball-Reference page, the only time he led the league in a category. That is what drew my eyes, of course: twenty-six is an impressive number of double plays for a hitter to ground into. He was also caught stealing sixteen times. That ain’t great.
On that subject: Calderon had an unusual record as a base stealer:
Year
|
Age
|
Games
|
SB
|
CS
|
1987
|
25
|
144
|
10
|
5
|
1988
|
26
|
73
|
4
|
4
|
1989
|
27
|
157
|
7
|
1
|
1990
|
28
|
158
|
32
|
16
|
1991
|
29
|
134
|
31
|
16
|
For his first three years as baserunner, Calderon didn’t run too often, and he had a poor record when he did. Then - mid-career - he suddenly started running. He didn’t change teams, and the team didn’t change managers or GM’s: he just started running. He went from eight stolen base attempts to forty-eight attempts, for no obvious reason.
Anyway: I sometimes think of double-plays and caught stealing as ‘twin’ events, though they are exactly parallel. They are Bad Outs: they are events that typically swing a team’s chances from the positive to the negative. They’re take-the-wind-out-of-the-sails outs.
When I saw that Calderon had grounded into 26 stolen bases and had been caught stealing 16 times, I thought, reflexively: "Forty-two outs seems like an awful lot of bad outs."
And then I thought: is it?
Other questions followed. What is the record for bad outs in a season? What is the range for bad outs…what is the ‘bad out’ equivalent of a .300 batting average or a WAR of 6.0? What kind of players tend to make a lot of bad outs: are they sluggers or base stealers? Are they good players or great players or flameouts? Who is the career record holder in bad outs? Who made the most bad outs per plate appearance?
So let’s get take a deep dive it on a not-very-meaningful stat.
Let’s look into BO.
* * *
The records for caught stealing and grounding into double plays are sporadic until 1939, when both leagues started counting the events. The FanGraphs data base has AL Caught Stealing data from 1939, but their NL data only starts after 1951, so we’re only looking at the last seventy years.
And to narrow my spreadsheet a little, I kept my list to players who had at least 300 plate appearances: I assumed that no one with fewer than 300 plate appearances would crack our list. That gave us a list of 15,315 individual seasons to choose from.
Any guess at the #1 season? I bet most of you can guess the worst BO season of all-time.
It’s Rickey, of course. He is the single-season record holder for Bad Outs. In 1982, he set a record by getting caught stealing 43 times. He also grounded in five double plays, tallying 47 Bad Outs.
Ivan Calderon had 42 bad outs, which is close to 47. How close was he to the record?
Very, very close:
Season
|
Name
|
Team
|
G
|
PA
|
GDP
|
CS
|
Bad Outs
|
1982
|
Rickey Henderson
|
OAK
|
149
|
656
|
5
|
42
|
47
|
1999
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
TEX
|
144
|
630
|
31
|
12
|
43
|
1990
|
Ivan Calderon
|
CHW
|
158
|
667
|
26
|
16
|
42
|
1980
|
Omar Moreno
|
PIT
|
162
|
745
|
9
|
33
|
42
|
1974
|
Lou Brock
|
STL
|
153
|
702
|
8
|
33
|
41
|
2002
|
Vlad Guerrero
|
MON
|
161
|
709
|
20
|
20
|
40
|
2001
|
Vlad Guerrero
|
MON
|
159
|
671
|
24
|
16
|
40
|
1993
|
Chad Curtis
|
CAL
|
152
|
671
|
16
|
24
|
40
|
Ivan Calderon had the third-worst season for ‘bad outs’ in baseball history.
That’s remarkable. Sixteen thousand individual seasons of baseball players hitting into double plays and getting caught stealing, and I happen to notice the third worst season? Weird.
We are early in our dive, but one thing that pops up is that these are good players.
Rickey, Ivan Rodriguez, Lou Brock, and Vladdie Sr are all in the baseball Hall-of-Fame. Moreno and Calderon were good players. Chad Curtis: let’s just leave it that there are names that make you wince when they show up on a table.
These are runners more than hitters, which isn’t surprising. You can tally a lot of CS if you play for a manager who gives you the green light every time you’re on first base. Brock and Henderson and Moreno were speedsters. Pudge was fast-for-a-catcher…maybe the fastest catcher who stuck at the position. Guerrero and Calderon were more power hitters than speedsters, but they weren’t plodders.
But if you look further down the list, the speedsters don’t continue to dominate the table:
Season
|
Name
|
Team
|
G
|
PA
|
GDP
|
CS
|
Bad Outs
|
1953
|
Minnie Minoso
|
CHW
|
151
|
655
|
23
|
16
|
39
|
1985
|
Dave Parker
|
CIN
|
160
|
694
|
26
|
13
|
39
|
1992
|
Luis Polonia
|
CAL
|
149
|
635
|
18
|
21
|
39
|
2008
|
Miguel Tejada
|
HOU
|
158
|
666
|
32
|
7
|
39
|
1954
|
Jackie Jensen
|
BOS
|
152
|
673
|
32
|
7
|
39
|
1976
|
Lou Brock
|
STL
|
133
|
544
|
19
|
19
|
38
|
1978
|
Lyman Bostock
|
CAL
|
147
|
637
|
26
|
12
|
38
|
1988
|
Harold Reynolds
|
SEA
|
158
|
663
|
9
|
29
|
38
|
1983
|
Steve Sax
|
LAD
|
155
|
692
|
8
|
30
|
38
|
Minnie Minoso was fast, but there was a lot more to his game than speed. Dave Parker – the 1985 version of Dave Parker – was big and burly. Jensen and Miguel Tejada and Lyman Bostock collected most of their Bad Outs on grounding into double plays, not getting caught stealing.
Of course, those numbers are cumulative numbers, not rates. The list has good players because good players will have more opportunities to hit into double plays or get caught stealing. There is a reason Rickey is number one: he was an exceptionally great baseball player.
* * *
So what happens if we look at the rate of Bad Outs?
Adjusting for Bad Outs Per 100 Plate Appearances knocks Rickey from the top of the list:
Season
|
Name
|
Team
|
PA
|
GDP
|
CS
|
Bad Outs
|
BO/100 PA
|
1976
|
Jim Wohlford
|
KCR
|
334
|
8
|
16
|
24
|
7.19
|
1982
|
Rickey Henderson
|
OAK
|
656
|
5
|
42
|
47
|
7.16
|
1991
|
Bernard Gilkey
|
STL
|
311
|
14
|
8
|
22
|
7.07
|
1995
|
Kevin Bass
|
BAL
|
327
|
15
|
8
|
23
|
7.03
|
1976
|
Lou Brock
|
STL
|
544
|
19
|
19
|
38
|
6.99
|
1982
|
John Wathan
|
KCR
|
502
|
26
|
9
|
35
|
6.97
|
1943
|
Jimmy Bloodworth
|
DET
|
519
|
29
|
7
|
36
|
6.94
|
1950
|
Billy Hitchcock
|
PHA
|
447
|
30
|
1
|
31
|
6.94
|
1961
|
Gene Green
|
WAS
|
405
|
26
|
2
|
28
|
6.91
|
1953
|
Carlos Bernier
|
PIT
|
366
|
11
|
14
|
25
|
6.83
|
1999
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
TEX
|
630
|
31
|
12
|
43
|
6.83
|
1975
|
Duane Kuiper
|
CLE
|
388
|
8
|
18
|
26
|
6.70
|
2002
|
Brad Ausmus
|
HOU
|
496
|
30
|
3
|
33
|
6.65
|
2010
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
WSN
|
421
|
25
|
3
|
28
|
6.65
|
1979
|
George Scott
|
- - -
|
384
|
24
|
1
|
25
|
6.51
|
Jim Wohlford, a backup outfielder for the 1976 pennant-winning Royals, edges out Rickey Henderson: he rises to the top of our list.
Mr. Wohlford is still alive on this earth, and I’m betting that he doesn’t know that he is ahead of the great Rickey Henderson, at least by one very specific and ignominious metric. If anyone has a line to him, please reach out and share the good news.
What really happens when you look at Bad Outs by rate is that the good players drop off, and lesser players (or good players in lesser years) start filling in the gaps. I don’t know anything about Jimmy Bloodworth or Carlos Beiner. Kevin Bass and George Scott were fine players in their primes, but this chart gives us the last season of each man’s career, when both were playing out the string. Bernand Gilkey is the other side of the coin: he would go on to have a few strong seasons in the majors, but this is his first extended sting in the big leagues, and he was probably trying to do too much.
* * *
How about career contributions?
Starting with careers of 5000+ plate appearances, here are the hitters credited with the most Bad Outs, by rate:
Name
|
PA
|
GDP
|
CS
|
BO
|
BO/100
|
Luis Polonia
|
5296
|
91
|
145
|
236
|
4.46
|
Otis Nixon
|
5800
|
72
|
186
|
258
|
4.45
|
Eric Young
|
6996
|
135
|
168
|
303
|
4.33
|
Pat Kelly
|
5011
|
97
|
119
|
216
|
4.31
|
Juan Beniquez
|
5151
|
146
|
76
|
222
|
4.31
|
Julio Franco
|
9731
|
310
|
107
|
417
|
4.29
|
Cesar Cedeno
|
8133
|
167
|
179
|
346
|
4.25
|
Steve Sax
|
7632
|
146
|
178
|
324
|
4.25
|
Tony Pena
|
7073
|
235
|
63
|
298
|
4.21
|
Omar Moreno
|
5481
|
45
|
182
|
227
|
4.14
|
Vlad Guerrero
|
9059
|
278
|
94
|
372
|
4.11
|
Enos Cabell
|
6304
|
133
|
124
|
257
|
4.08
|
George Scott
|
8269
|
279
|
57
|
336
|
4.06
|
Minnie Minoso
|
7690
|
183
|
129
|
312
|
4.06
|
Jackie Jensen
|
6001
|
182
|
55
|
237
|
3.95
|
Burners, mostly. Speed-first players. It’s surprising to see Julio Franco, one of my all-time favorite players, on this list. Tony Pena never struck me as a liability, but…he gives the catchers representation. Vlad Guerrero isn’t a surprise, considering that he’s already had some appearances.
What about the players who avoid bad outs? Whose the best at that?
Name
|
PA
|
GDP
|
CS
|
BO
|
BO/100
|
Matt Carpenter
|
5095
|
35
|
17
|
52
|
1.02
|
Chris Davis
|
5630
|
62
|
11
|
73
|
1.30
|
C. Granderson
|
8306
|
64
|
50
|
114
|
1.37
|
Roger Maris
|
5846
|
75
|
9
|
84
|
1.44
|
Chase Utley
|
7863
|
93
|
22
|
115
|
1.46
|
Adam Dunn
|
8328
|
100
|
25
|
125
|
1.50
|
Mickey Mantle
|
9909
|
113
|
38
|
151
|
1.52
|
Carlos Pena
|
5893
|
71
|
22
|
93
|
1.58
|
Eddie Mathews
|
10101
|
123
|
39
|
162
|
1.60
|
Mike Trout
|
5660
|
58
|
37
|
95
|
1.68
|
Norm Siebern
|
5267
|
64
|
25
|
89
|
1.69
|
Don Blasingame
|
5938
|
43
|
60
|
103
|
1.73
|
Dan Uggla
|
5509
|
75
|
21
|
96
|
1.74
|
Willie Stargell
|
9026
|
143
|
16
|
159
|
1.76
|
Will Clark
|
8283
|
100
|
48
|
148
|
1.79
|
This is an unusual list of players, starting with an unusual hitter in Matt Carpenter.
I will confess that I haven’t followed Carpenter’s career as closely as I perhaps should have. He’s a player that doesn’t fit an easy category: a leadoff hitter who doesn’t run, an on-base player who had decent power but strikes out, a defender who can play a lot of positions passably, but not brilliantly. He’s hard to categorize. He could be viewed as paralleling Will Clark, who comes in at 15th.
Chris Davis is #2. That’s easier to categorize: pull sluggers who strike out too much to ground into double plays. Him and Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena.
Curtis Granderson was a favorite player of mine: an underrated player who did a lot to help his teams win. There are players like Granderson who show up doing well by this metric: Brett Gardner (22nd), Jayson Werth (27th), Jason Bay (28th), J.D. Drew (32nd), Tim Salmon (34th), Shane Victorino (51st). This metric is good at identifying lesser known players who won games by making good baseball decisions.
Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris – the M&M Boys - both show up as a player who avoided Bad Outs: I was surprised to see both of them on the list. Yogi Berra is also terrific at avoiding Bad Outs: he ranks 43rd among the players listed.
Chase Utley’s appearance does not surprise me: he was an absolutely terrific percentage player. The same holds for Mike Trout.
* * *
All-Time Leaders? Ok.
Name
|
PA
|
GDP
|
CS
|
BO
|
R. Henderson
|
13346
|
173
|
335
|
508
|
Albert Pujols
|
12542
|
406
|
41
|
447
|
C. Yastrzemski
|
13991
|
323
|
116
|
439
|
Lou Brock
|
11238
|
114
|
307
|
421
|
Julio Franco
|
9731
|
310
|
107
|
417
|
Dave Winfield
|
12358
|
319
|
96
|
415
|
Rod Carew
|
10550
|
216
|
186
|
402
|
Hank Aaron
|
13940
|
328
|
73
|
401
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
10270
|
337
|
64
|
401
|
Pete Rose
|
15876
|
247
|
149
|
396
|
Cal Ripken
|
12883
|
350
|
39
|
389
|
Tony Gwynn
|
10232
|
261
|
125
|
386
|
Derek Jeter
|
12602
|
287
|
96
|
383
|
D. Concepcion
|
9641
|
266
|
109
|
375
|
Omar Vizquel
|
12013
|
207
|
167
|
374
|
V. Guerrero
|
9059
|
278
|
94
|
372
|
Torii Hunter
|
9692
|
262
|
99
|
361
|
Eddie Murray
|
12817
|
315
|
43
|
358
|
Willie Mays
|
12493
|
251
|
103
|
354
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
10648
|
329
|
21
|
350
|
Mostly Hall-of-Fame players, as you could guess.
* * *
Well, OK. We’re about done here. Just one more thing.
Has any player ever have a season without getting caught stealing or grounding into a double play?
I actually went further back, checking the records all the way from 1939. That was a sample of 16,000 individual seasons. And there was one player, anonymous to all but the most discerning baseball fan, who accomplished this feat.
Let’s let a skeptic ask a few questions about our mystery man.
You set the bar at 300 plate appearances: I’m guessing this player must’ve just clipped that bar.
This player, while not playing a full season, managed to collect 430 plate appearances. He didn’t cheap out on plate appearance.
Fine. He was a plodding power hitter who struck out a billion times. Never thought of stealing second base. Sam Horn. Rob Deer. Gorman Thomas
No. This man was a runner. He attempted fourteen stolen bases, which was good enough to finish 19th in the league in the year he accomplished this feat. He was a perfect 14-for-14.
So it’s slap-hitter. Punch-and-judy singles hitter. A bunting expert like Billy Butler, or a contact-first hitter.
No. He hit 16 homeruns, so he showed at least some capacity to hit the ball hard. He wasn’t a contact specialist, either: he struck out 123 times.
Okay: this is a crafty player. Rickey ran into a lot of outs with Billy Martin, and then learned to choose his moments. Same for Beltran. Middle-career, great player, right?
No. This player pulled this feat off as a rookie. First season in the majors.
Then this is some anonymous player from some era where weird things happen. A World War II, player, or someone who snuck up on an expansion squad and bounced around for a few years.
No. He is a starting player on a team that was in the playoffs last year.
So what gives?
It’s genes. It has to be something in the genetic code. That’s the only explanation.
The only player to never ground into a double play or get caught stealing is Cavan Biggio. He accomplished this feat in 2019, his rookie season, when he went 14-for-14 in stolen bases while never grounding into a double play.
And his father, Hall-of-Famer Craig Biggio, was also famously good at avoiding bad outs: in 1997 Craig become just the third player to have a full season without hitting into a double play, and the first to do it while playing in all of his team’s games.
The younger Biggio is just starting his career, but he is well head of his father (2.19 BO, good enough for 76th all-time), and he’s certainly in line to challenge Matt Carpenter’s record. Carpenter has averaged 1.02 Bad Outs per 100 PA: Cavan is sitting at 0.59 through 846 plate appearances (one caught stealing, four GIDP).
The apple is outpacing the tree.
David Fleming is a writer living in southwest Virginia. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.
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