The Kansas City Royals, at the moment I am writing this, are nine outs away from punching a ticket to the 2014 ALCS. Having dispatched the Oakland A’s in one of the most unusual and exciting deciding games in baseball history, the Royals have won two extra-inning contests on the road in Anaheim. They’re at home in Kansas City now, and are up on the Angels 7-2.
The Royals are a strange baseball team. Their best offensive player in Alex Gordon, a player who hit 19 homeruns this year. He drove in 74 runners, walked 65 times, and tallied an OPS of .783. All of those tallies ledthe team.
The guy who threw the most innings for the Royals was James Shields, who posted a very good 3.21 ERA over 227 innings pitched. The guy who was second in innings pitched was Jeremy Guthrie, who allowed a 4.13 ERA in 202.2 innings. The guy who pitched the third-most innings was Jason Vargas, who pitched like Jason Vargas.
The Royals don’t have a good lineup. They have some talented started (Yordano Ventura should pitch Game 1 of the ALCS, if the Royals win today), but their starting pitching isn’t brilliant. No one’s confusing them with the (recently dispatched) Tigers, or the (still alive, though barely) Nationals.
The Royals do have positives. Most famously, they have an excellent bullpen, and a terrific defensive outfield. On the offense side of the coin, they’re the best team in baseball on the basepaths (153-for-189 in stolen base attempts), and they’re the hardest team in the majors to strike out.
Leaving aside the bullpen and outfield defense, let’s talk about those two offensive components: the Royals ability to avoid strikeouts, and their ability to steal bases.
* * *
This is one of those articles that builds on itself: we’ll start with one question, and see what we get for an answer, and then we’ll see what other questions come up. I don’t have an agenda here…I’m just fumbling around in the dark.
Here we go.
Question 1: Is the Royals strikeout rate actually rare, or are they just a few ticks below everyone else?
The 2014 Royals whiffed 985 times this year, the best mark in the majors. The next team on the list were the Oakland A’s, with 1104 strikeouts. The major league average was 1246 whiffs. The Cubs led with 1477 batting strikeouts.
We can determine the relative difference between the Royals strikeout total and the league average by subtracting the Royals tally from the league average, and dividing that by the sum of the Royals tally and the league average when divided by two. That works out to:
(1246-985) / ((1246+985)/2)
Which becomes 0.236. That’s the relative difference between the Royals strikeout tally and the league average.
Let’s put it in a nice table, so that we can read it.
Year
|
Team
|
Strikeouts
|
Lg. Avg.
|
Rel. Diff.
|
2014
|
KCR
|
985
|
1248
|
.236
|
Terrific….it’s nice to have a number that quantifies their ability to make contact. But we need some contexts to understand what that .236 mark means.
The best contact team in 2013 was….cue the drumroll….the Kansas City Royals. The best contact team in 2012 was the Royals, too. They’ve been the best contact team in baseball for three straight seasons. Let’s get them on the spreadsheet:
Year
|
Team
|
Strikeouts
|
Lg. Avg.
|
Rel. Diff.
|
2014
|
KCR
|
985
|
1248
|
.236
|
2013
|
KCR
|
1048
|
1224
|
.155
|
2012
|
KCR
|
1032
|
1214
|
.162
|
This is already interesting: thought the ’14 Royals are repeating what the team did in 2012 and 2013, we can see that they’ve gotten more contact-prone. While the league strikeout rate has increased, the Royals batting whiffs have decreased. Their relative difference to the league is a lothigher this year than it was in 2013 or 2012.
That still doesn’t give us a sense of these numbers. What’s .236, in a wider context? Going ten years back…..we’ll look at the best contact teams every year of the last decade:
Year
|
Team
|
Strikeouts
|
Lg. Avg.
|
Rel. Diff.
|
2014
|
KCR
|
985
|
1248
|
.236
|
2013
|
KCR
|
1048
|
1224
|
.155
|
2012
|
KCR
|
1032
|
1214
|
.162
|
2011
|
TEX
|
930
|
1150
|
.212
|
2010
|
KCR
|
905
|
1144
|
.233
|
2009
|
NYM
|
928
|
1120
|
.188
|
2008
|
SEA
|
890
|
1096
|
.207
|
2007
|
MIN
|
839
|
1073
|
.245
|
2006
|
MIN
|
872
|
1055
|
.190
|
While the 2013 and 2012 Royals didn’t quite match the 2014 team in making-contact-over-the-league-average, a few recent teams have matched our current Royals. The 2010 Kansas City team managed to post a relative difference of .233, which is very close to this year’s team. The 2007 Minnesota Twins were actually a bit more contact-prone than the current Royals.
We’ve had twenty seasons of Wild Card baseball now…let’s list the top contact teams, year-by-year, for the Wild Card era. And let’s rate them by their relative difference, just to see where the 2014 Royals stand:
Year
|
Team
|
Strikeouts
|
Lg. Avg.
|
Rel. Diff.
|
2002
|
ANA
|
805
|
1046
|
.260
|
1999
|
CHW
|
810
|
1037
|
.246
|
2007
|
MIN
|
839
|
1073
|
.245
|
2014
|
KCR
|
985
|
1248
|
.236
|
2010
|
KCR
|
905
|
1144
|
.233
|
2005
|
OAK
|
819
|
1021
|
.220
|
2000
|
KCR
|
840
|
1045
|
.218
|
1996
|
CLE
|
844
|
1047
|
.215
|
2011
|
TEX
|
930
|
1150
|
.212
|
2008
|
SEA
|
890
|
1096
|
.207
|
2003
|
ANA
|
838
|
1027
|
.203
|
2004
|
SFG
|
874
|
1061
|
.193
|
2006
|
MIN
|
872
|
1055
|
.190
|
2009
|
NYM
|
928
|
1120
|
.188
|
2001
|
KCR
|
898
|
1080
|
.184
|
1997
|
CHW
|
901
|
1069
|
.171
|
1995
|
CLE
|
766
|
908
|
.170
|
1998
|
BAL
|
903
|
1063
|
.163
|
2012
|
KCR
|
1032
|
1214
|
.162
|
2013
|
KCR
|
1048
|
1224
|
.155
|
Our current Royals, now up 8-2 in the seventh inning of Game 3 of the ALDS, are the fourth-best contact team in baseball since the start of the Wild Card. So that’s one question answered: the Royals are very much a high-contact team relative to their league contexts. They are really good at avoiding the whiff.
And they’re not absolutely unique: there have been a few other teams that have had contact rates about as high as the 2014 Royals.
Who’s number one on the list? The 2002 Angels. For those who don’t remember 2002, the Angels won the World Series.
This gives us our second question.
* * *
Question 2: Do teams with low strikeout rates do well on a season-by-season basis? Are these typically playoff teams, or championship teams?
The Royals have a low strikeout rate, and they’re now in the ALCS. The 2002 Angels had the lowest strikeout rate of any team in the Wild Card era, and they won the World Series. Is there a pattern here?
Looking at those twenty teams, with their regular-season win-loss records:
Year
|
Team
|
Rel. Diff.
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Playoffs?
|
2014
|
KCR
|
.236
|
89
|
73
|
ALCS
|
2013
|
KCR
|
.155
|
86
|
76
|
No
|
2012
|
KCR
|
.162
|
72
|
90
|
No
|
2011
|
TEX
|
.212
|
96
|
66
|
Lost WS
|
2010
|
KCR
|
.233
|
67
|
95
|
No
|
2009
|
NYM
|
.188
|
70
|
92
|
No
|
2008
|
SEA
|
.207
|
61
|
101
|
No
|
2007
|
MIN
|
.245
|
79
|
83
|
No
|
2006
|
MIN
|
.190
|
96
|
66
|
Lost LDS
|
2005
|
OAK
|
.220
|
88
|
74
|
No
|
2004
|
SFG
|
.193
|
91
|
71
|
No
|
2003
|
ANA
|
.203
|
77
|
85
|
No
|
2002
|
ANA
|
.260
|
99
|
63
|
Won WS
|
2001
|
KCR
|
.184
|
65
|
97
|
No
|
2000
|
KCR
|
.218
|
77
|
85
|
No
|
1999
|
CHW
|
.246
|
75
|
86
|
No
|
1998
|
BAL
|
.163
|
79
|
83
|
No
|
1997
|
CHW
|
.171
|
80
|
81
|
No
|
1996
|
CLE
|
.215
|
99
|
62
|
Lost LDS
|
1995
|
CLE
|
.170
|
100
|
44
|
Lost WS
|
Totals
|
Teams
|
.203
|
1646
|
1573
|
6 of 20
|
Nope…there’s no hint that low strikeout teams have a tendency to do much better than any other teams. This group, cumulatively, is a little above .500. The presence of the mid-1990’s Cleveland teams, a near-historic collection of hitting talent, sways the group above .500, but there’s no strong correlation between avoiding the strikeout and winning games.
A savvy person might point out that the current Royals and the World Champion Angels are on the far end of the spectrum, posting relative differences of .260 and .236. Maybe the benefit lies with the extremecontact teams?
We can split our twenty teams into two groups: those with the higher relative difference in strikeout rates, and those with the lower relative difference. Let’s see if that makes a difference:
Year
|
Team
|
Rel. Diff.
|
W-L
|
*
|
Year
|
Team
|
Rel. Diff.
|
W-L
|
2002
|
ANA
|
.260
|
99-63
|
*
|
2003
|
ANA
|
.203
|
77-85
|
1999
|
CHW
|
.246
|
75-86
|
*
|
2004
|
SFG
|
.193
|
91-71
|
2007
|
MIN
|
.245
|
79-83
|
*
|
2006
|
MIN
|
.190
|
96-66
|
2014
|
KCR
|
.236
|
89-73
|
*
|
2009
|
NYM
|
.188
|
70-92
|
2010
|
KCR
|
.233
|
67-95
|
*
|
2001
|
KCR
|
.184
|
65-97
|
2005
|
OAK
|
.220
|
88-74
|
*
|
1997
|
CHW
|
.171
|
80-81
|
2000
|
KCR
|
.218
|
77-85
|
*
|
1995
|
CLE
|
.170
|
100-44
|
1996
|
CLE
|
.215
|
99-62
|
*
|
1998
|
BAL
|
.163
|
79-83
|
2011
|
TEX
|
.212
|
96-66
|
*
|
2012
|
KCR
|
.162
|
72-90
|
2008
|
SEA
|
.207
|
61-101
|
*
|
2013
|
KCR
|
.155
|
86-76
|
Totals
|
|
.229
|
830-788
|
*
|
Total
|
|
.177
|
816-785
|
Nope. The teams with the higher relative difference in strikeout tallies have a winning percentage of .513. The teams with the lower relative difference have a winning percentage of .510. No difference, really.
This is a bummer. There’s no evidence that teams that have low strikeout rates have done particularly well over the last twenty years.
* * *
Question 3: Okay, so making contact doesn’t seem to help a team reach the playoffs. What about when they’re IN the playoffs? Do high-contact teams tend to do well in October baseball?
I should note here that the Royals have won: they're advancing to the ALCS, to tangle with the Baltimore Orioles.
We’re dealing with a small sample size: just six teams. It’d be useful to go through all of the baseball teams ever and get a broader sample, but it’s hard enough looking at a small spreadsheet when there are so many amazing games happening every day.
Sticking to our six playoff teams:
Year
|
Team
|
Rel. Diff.
|
Playoff W-L, by Series
|
Postseason W-L
|
2014
|
KCR
|
.236
|
1-0, 3-0
|
4-0
|
2011
|
TEX
|
.212
|
3-1, 4-2, 3-4
|
10-7
|
2006
|
MIN
|
.190
|
0-3
|
0-3
|
2002
|
ANA
|
.260
|
3-1, 4-1, 4-3
|
11-5
|
1996
|
CLE
|
.215
|
1-3
|
1-3
|
1995
|
CLE
|
.170
|
3-0, 4-2, 2-4
|
9-6
|
Of the thirteen playoff series our high-contact teams have played, they’ve managed to win an impressive nine of those. They have a cumulative W-L record of 35-24 in playoff baseball, an impressing .59 winning percentage.
This might be something….there is at least a suggestion that teams with low strikeout rates tends to do pretty good in the postseason.
From that, we can speculate why this might be true. It’s possible that most playoff teams have good pitchers, pitchers with higher-than-average strikeout rates. Maybe high-contact teams frustrate good pitchers more than high-walk teams.
Maybe it’s a weather thing….October games are cold, and cold weather dampens offense. That means less homers and more fly-outs from the big boppers. Maybe singles-punching teams like the Royals do well because an offense that plays for one run does better in cold weather.
Lots of possibilities. Lots of roads to go down.
* * *
Question 4: You said you were going to mention speed, didn’t you? Do the Royals have a high relative difference on the base paths?
Sure they did. Of course they did. The Royals led the majors in steals, with 153. If you lead the league in a category, you’ll also lead the league in the relative difference between your total and the league average.
The relative difference between their stolen base total (153) and the major league average (92) was .498, the highest in baseball.
* * *
Question 5: Is their rate of stolen bases, relative to the league average, particularly high?
Here are the top teams every year of the Wild Card era, by relative difference in stolen bases:
Year
|
Team
|
Stolen Bases
|
Lg. Avg.
|
Rel Diff. (SB)
|
2014
|
KCR
|
153
|
92
|
.498
|
2013
|
KCR
|
153
|
90
|
.519
|
2012
|
MIL
|
158
|
108
|
.376
|
2011
|
SDP
|
170
|
109
|
.437
|
2010
|
TBR
|
172
|
99
|
.539
|
2009
|
TBR
|
194
|
99
|
.648
|
2008
|
TBR
|
142
|
93
|
.417
|
2007
|
NYM
|
200
|
97
|
.694
|
2006
|
LAA
|
148
|
92
|
.467
|
2005
|
LAA
|
161
|
86
|
.607
|
2004
|
LAA
|
143
|
86
|
.498
|
2003
|
FLA
|
150
|
86
|
.542
|
2002
|
FLA
|
177
|
92
|
.632
|
2001
|
SEA
|
174
|
103
|
.513
|
2000
|
FLA
|
168
|
97
|
.536
|
1999
|
SDP
|
174
|
114
|
.417
|
1998
|
TOR
|
184
|
109
|
.512
|
1997
|
CIN
|
190
|
118
|
.468
|
1996
|
COL
|
201
|
116
|
.536
|
1995
|
CIN
|
190
|
105
|
.576
|
The Royals are pretty good, but by no means are they historic: of the twenty teams listed above, the Royals rank just 13th in their relative difference of stolen bases. The 2007 New York Mets, who stole 200 bases during a year when the major league average was 97, rate as the best stealing team of the Wild Card era.
(A quick note: I used the Major League average each season, instead of the individual league’s average. While someone will point out that it’d be more accurate to use separate league averages, using the major league average probably doesn’t skew the math terribly. In 2007 the Major League average was 97 steals per team….and the NL average was 98 steals.)
You’ll note, on the above table, that the tallies for relative difference in stolen bases is higher each year than the relative difference in strikeouts. This makes sense: the difference between 153 and 92 (the 2014 Royals stolen base tally and the major league average) is relatively greater than the difference between 945 and 1248 (the 2014 Royals strikeout total, and the major league average).
* * *
Question 6. What about that original list of teams? Are there any crossovers? Do any of the teams who had low strikeout rates ALSO have high stolen base totals, relative to their league?
Looking at our original list of high-contact teams, and adding their relative difference in stolen bases:
Year
|
Team
|
Rel. Diff. (K's)
|
Team SB's
|
Lg. Avg.
|
Rel Diff. (SB)
|
2014
|
KCR
|
.236
|
153
|
92
|
.498
|
2013
|
KCR
|
.155
|
153
|
90
|
.519
|
2012
|
KCR
|
.162
|
132
|
108
|
.200
|
2011
|
TEX
|
.212
|
143
|
109
|
.270
|
2010
|
KCR
|
.233
|
115
|
99
|
.150
|
2009
|
NYM
|
.188
|
122
|
99
|
.208
|
2008
|
SEA
|
.207
|
90
|
93
|
-.033
|
2007
|
MIN
|
.245
|
112
|
97
|
.144
|
2006
|
MIN
|
.190
|
101
|
92
|
.093
|
2005
|
OAK
|
.220
|
31
|
86
|
-.940
|
2004
|
SFG
|
.193
|
43
|
86
|
-.667
|
2003
|
ANA
|
.203
|
129
|
86
|
.400
|
2002
|
ANA
|
.260
|
117
|
92
|
.239
|
2001
|
KCR
|
.184
|
100
|
103
|
-.030
|
2000
|
KCR
|
.218
|
121
|
97
|
.220
|
1999
|
CHW
|
.246
|
110
|
114
|
-.036
|
1998
|
BAL
|
.163
|
86
|
109
|
-.236
|
1997
|
CHW
|
.171
|
106
|
118
|
-.107
|
1996
|
CLE
|
.215
|
160
|
116
|
.319
|
1995
|
CLE
|
.170
|
132
|
105
|
.228
|
There a few teams in the negatives….a few high-contact teams that stole fewer bases than the league average:
Year
|
Team
|
Rel. Diff. (K's)
|
Rel Diff. (SB)
|
2001
|
KCR
|
.184
|
-.030
|
2008
|
SEA
|
.207
|
-.033
|
1999
|
CHW
|
.246
|
-.036
|
1997
|
CHW
|
.171
|
-.107
|
1998
|
BAL
|
.163
|
-.236
|
2004
|
SFG
|
.193
|
-.667
|
2005
|
OAK
|
.220
|
-.940
|
Totals
|
xx
|
0.197
|
-0.224
|
These teams aren’t logical comparable to the 2014 Royals: though they matched the KC’ers in contract abilities, they don’t compare on the bases.
These thirteen teams do have a high relative difference in strikeouts, and a high relative difference in stolen bases. They are the logical comparable to the 2014 Royals:
Year
|
Team
|
Rel. Diff. (K's)
|
Rel Diff. (SB)
|
2013
|
KCR
|
.155
|
.519
|
2014
|
KCR
|
.236
|
.498
|
2003
|
ANA
|
.203
|
.400
|
1996
|
CLE
|
.215
|
.319
|
2011
|
TEX
|
.212
|
.270
|
2002
|
ANA
|
.260
|
.239
|
1995
|
CLE
|
.170
|
.228
|
2000
|
KCR
|
.218
|
.220
|
2009
|
NYM
|
.188
|
.208
|
2012
|
KCR
|
.162
|
.200
|
2010
|
KCR
|
.233
|
.150
|
2007
|
MIN
|
.245
|
.144
|
2006
|
MIN
|
.190
|
.093
|
Totals
|
xx
|
.206
|
.275
|
* * *
Question 7: We know that teams who avoid strikeouts alone aren’t great. Is there any evidence that teams who BOTH avoid strikeouts AND steal lots of bases do well?
Here are the seasonal records of the seven low-strikeout, low-stolen base teams…the teams that posted an excellent relative difference in strikeouts, but a negative relative difference in stolen bases:
Year
|
Team
|
Rel. Diff. (K's)
|
Rel Diff. (SB)
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Postseason
|
2001
|
KCR
|
.184
|
-.030
|
65
|
97
|
No
|
2008
|
SEA
|
.207
|
-.033
|
61
|
101
|
No
|
1999
|
CHW
|
.246
|
-.036
|
75
|
86
|
No
|
1997
|
CHW
|
.171
|
-.107
|
80
|
81
|
No
|
1998
|
BAL
|
.163
|
-.236
|
79
|
83
|
No
|
2004
|
SFG
|
.193
|
-.667
|
91
|
71
|
No
|
2005
|
OAK
|
.220
|
-.940
|
88
|
74
|
No
|
Totals
|
xx
|
.197
|
-.224
|
539
|
593
|
0-for-7
|
They have a winning percentage of .476. More significantly, they never made the playoffs.
Here are the teams who have positive tallied in the relative difference of strikeouts and stolen bases:
Year
|
Team
|
Rel. Diff. (K's)
|
Rel Diff. (SB)
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Postseason
|
2014
|
KCR
|
.236
|
.498
|
89
|
73
|
ALCS
|
2013
|
KCR
|
.155
|
.519
|
86
|
76
|
No
|
2003
|
ANA
|
.203
|
.400
|
77
|
85
|
No
|
1996
|
CLE
|
.215
|
.319
|
99
|
62
|
Lost LDS
|
2002
|
ANA
|
.260
|
.239
|
99
|
63
|
Won WS
|
2011
|
TEX
|
.212
|
.270
|
96
|
66
|
Lost WS
|
2000
|
KCR
|
.218
|
.220
|
77
|
85
|
No
|
1995
|
CLE
|
.170
|
.228
|
100
|
44
|
Lost WS
|
2009
|
NYM
|
.188
|
.208
|
70
|
92
|
No
|
2007
|
MIN
|
.245
|
.144
|
79
|
83
|
No
|
2010
|
KCR
|
.233
|
.150
|
67
|
95
|
No
|
2012
|
KCR
|
.162
|
.200
|
72
|
90
|
No
|
2006
|
MIN
|
.190
|
.093
|
96
|
66
|
Lost LDS
|
Totals
|
xx
|
.206
|
.275
|
657
|
621
|
6 out of 13
|
These teams, which include our current Royals, tallied a winning percentage of .531, and reached the postseason a little less than half the time. They won most of their postseason games, as we’ve already discussed.
So there does seem to be evidence that teams that have the ability to a) make contact, and b) steal bases tend to do pretty well.
Way back at Question 3 we discovered that high-contact teams have done pretty well once they get into the post-season, going 35-24 in postseason matchups and winning 9 out of 15 playoff rounds they’ve been in.
Well….all of those teams had high stolen base totals relative to the league average. So while each factor, viewed individually, seems to have only a marginal effect on team performance, having both factors contribute significantly to a team’s success in the regular season, and in the post-season.
* * *
Question 8: Are the 2014 Royals in any way unique? Can their combination of avoiding strikeouts and stealing bases be viewed as at all historic?
Sure. Absolutely.
While the 2014 Royals don’t have an uniquely low strikeout rate or a uniquely high stolen base total, the combinationof those two poles on the 2014 Royals is historic, at least in the twenty years of the Wild Card era.
Here are those thirteen teams with low strikeouts and high stolen base tallies, ranked by their total Relative Difference….their relative differences in strikeouts, added to their relative difference in stolen bases:
Year
|
Team
|
Rel. Diff. (K's)
|
Rel Diff. (SB)
|
Rel Diff. (Total)
|
2014
|
KCR
|
.236
|
.498
|
.734
|
2013
|
KCR
|
.155
|
.519
|
.674
|
2003
|
ANA
|
.203
|
.400
|
.603
|
1996
|
CLE
|
.215
|
.319
|
.534
|
2002
|
ANA
|
.260
|
.239
|
.499
|
2011
|
TEX
|
.212
|
.270
|
.482
|
2000
|
KCR
|
.218
|
.220
|
.438
|
1995
|
CLE
|
.170
|
.228
|
.398
|
2009
|
NYM
|
.188
|
.208
|
.396
|
2007
|
MIN
|
.245
|
.144
|
.389
|
2010
|
KCR
|
.233
|
.150
|
.383
|
2012
|
KCR
|
.162
|
.200
|
.362
|
2006
|
MIN
|
.190
|
.093
|
.283
|
The 2014 Royals come out on top. No team in the Wild Card era has managed to avoid strikeouts and steal bases to the degree that the 2014 Royals have. The closest team to them was last year’s version of the team, the 2013 Royals. We’re seeing the greatest contact/speed team of the Wild Card era.
This is cherry-picking, but the eightteams with the highest total Relative Difference were exceptionally good baseball teams….they were great in the regular season and great in the post-season:
Year
|
Team
|
Rel Diff. (Total)
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Postseason
|
2014
|
KCR
|
.734
|
89
|
73
|
ALCS
|
2013
|
KCR
|
.674
|
86
|
76
|
No
|
2003
|
ANA
|
.603
|
77
|
85
|
No
|
1996
|
CLE
|
.534
|
99
|
62
|
Lost LDS
|
2002
|
ANA
|
.499
|
99
|
63
|
Won WS
|
2011
|
TEX
|
.482
|
96
|
66
|
Lost WS
|
2000
|
KCR
|
.438
|
77
|
85
|
No
|
1995
|
CLE
|
.398
|
100
|
44
|
Lost WS
|
This group averages a 91-win season. Three of the eight won 99 or 100 games.
Of these eight teams, all in the Wild Card era, three managed to advance past the Division and Championshop Series, reaching the World Series. One managed to win the World Series.
And another team, a team that ranks as the best contact/speed offense since the Wild Card started, has a good chance to play deep into October. I wouldn’t bet against them.
David Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.