Father's Day Poll Report

June 16, 2019
 

June 16 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.  Kamala Harris thrashed Amy Klobuchar in yesterday’s poll, Harris winning 64-23 whereas previous polls had suggested it was likely to be more like 54-32.  This is a reversal of the other two trends, which had shown Harris slipping and Klobuchar gaining strength.   This is yesterday’s poll summary:

 

Scores

Bennet

134

Harris

817

Klobuchar

493

Moulton

77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Bennet

9

Harris

54

Klobuchar

32

Moulton

5

Actual

Bennet

8

Harris

64

Klobuchar

23

Moulton

5

 

            Harris before yesterday’s poll had slipped 100 points in two weeks, whereas Klobuchar had gained steadily until reaching a peak of 506 about a week ago. 

            Removed from the data was the poll of April 26, which was Sanders, 47%; Hickenlooper, 26%; Yang, 21%; Moulton, 6%.   The removal of that poll from the data takes about 10 points away from John Hickenlooper and divides those between Moulton and Yang, and essentially leaves Bernie unchanged.  Three candidates had meaningful changes since yesterday, meaningful defined as "at least 5 points and at least 1% for that candidate":

o   Kamala Harris is up 21 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.

o   John Hickenlooper is down 10 points as a result of the removal of the April 26 poll from the network of data points.

o   Amy Klobuchar is down 19 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.

 

            A total of 94 points have moved since yesterday, a mid-range number for a day. 

            A Twitter follower (sorry I didn’t write down the name) suggested that I color-code the chart (below) with green for candidates hitting a new high and red for those hitting a new low.   I appreciate the suggestion; I’m not going to use red because Red now means Republican, and I’m not going to mark "highs" and "lows" exactly because a new high for a candidate may be just a 1% technical adjustment riding on a previous movement.   I’ll use green (UP) and gray (DOWN), and I’ll mark candidates based on whether they are up 10% or down 10% in the last 30 days.  These are the updated standings:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1732

2

Joe

Biden

1193

3

Pete

Buttigieg

1162

4

Kamala

Harris

838

5

Bernie

Sanders

485

6

Amy

Klobuchar

474

7

Beto

O'Rourke

414

8

Cory

Booker

383

9

Stacey

Abrams

349

10

Kirsten

Gillibrand

335

11

Donald

Trump

282

12

Bill

Weld

268

13

Andrew

Yang

241

14

John

Hickenlooper

220

15

Jay

Inslee

213

16

Julian

Castro

201

17

Howard

Schultz

166

18

Tulsi

Gabbard

162

19

Jeff

Flake

134

20

Michael

Bennet

134

21

Steve

Bullock

89

22

Tim

Ryan

85

23

Eric

Swalwell

85

24

Seth

Moulton

81

25

Mike

Gravel

69

26

Marianne

Williamson

69

27

John

Delaney

63

28

Bill

de Blasio

49

29

Wayne

Messam

24

 

            Now that I look at it, that’s too many people marked; I hadn’t expected that that many candidates would be up 10% or down 10%.   If I do that again I’ll set the cutoff at 20%, probably.  The purpose of highlighting is to draw focus.   If you highlight too many lines it becomes ineffective. 

            Thanks for reading.  

 

 
 

COMMENTS (2 Comments, most recent shown first)

BarryBondsFan25
NPR article explaining the history of election night coloring of the electoral map:



https://www.npr.org/2014/11/13/363762677/the-color-of-politics-how-did-red-and-blue-states-come-to-be​
7:48 PM Jun 16th
 
StatsGuru
I've never understood why Republicans are red. Through most of the 20th century, red was the color of the leftiest regimes. In fact I thought I remembered early election maps using blue for republicans and reds for democrats. I finally found one, the 1984 election map at NBC. See 1:50 of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWZaJZ6yN0I

I wonder who made the decision to change the colors and why?
6:11 PM Jun 16th
 
 
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