Follow Up Note to Streak Study
In yesterday’s study
https://www.billjamesonline.com/streak_study_by_good_games_and_bad_games/
I failed to address the question of whether some players had identifiable streak tendencies from season to season. I should have included that issue in the report; my apologies.
Anyway, Paul Blair had 12 seasons within the confines of the study (1965 to 1976), and had "positive streak tendencies" in all 12 seasons, with a career "streak balance" of +483. These are the career totals for all 46 players who were in the study:
First
|
Last
|
Positive
|
Negative
|
Balance
|
Paul
|
Blair
|
12
|
0
|
423
|
Al
|
Kaline
|
14
|
6
|
375
|
Maury
|
Wills
|
6
|
6
|
345
|
Jim
|
Gilliam
|
9
|
4
|
334
|
Bill
|
Mazeroski
|
9
|
4
|
332
|
Rocky
|
Colavito
|
8
|
4
|
331
|
Cecil
|
Cooper
|
7
|
6
|
228
|
Bill
|
White
|
7
|
3
|
228
|
Johnny
|
Callison
|
8
|
3
|
227
|
Orlando
|
Cepeda
|
9
|
4
|
222
|
Amos
|
Otis
|
8
|
4
|
211
|
Frank
|
Howard
|
7
|
5
|
173
|
Cookie
|
Rojas
|
9
|
3
|
158
|
Roger
|
Maris
|
8
|
2
|
138
|
Andre
|
Thornton
|
6
|
4
|
101
|
Zoilo
|
Versalles
|
5
|
4
|
95
|
Gil
|
McDougald
|
5
|
5
|
80
|
Ed
|
Kirkpatrick
|
4
|
3
|
78
|
Dick
|
McAuliffe
|
6
|
6
|
70
|
Jim
|
Northrup
|
5
|
4
|
62
|
Ed
|
Charles
|
4
|
3
|
60
|
Bill
|
Freehan
|
6
|
7
|
57
|
George
|
Scott
|
9
|
5
|
51
|
Bob
|
Skinner
|
5
|
3
|
51
|
Rico
|
Petrocelli
|
5
|
6
|
49
|
Gene
|
Tenace
|
4
|
4
|
45
|
Earl
|
Averill
|
5
|
6
|
41
|
Ken
|
McMullen
|
4
|
4
|
27
|
Bob
|
Allison
|
3
|
6
|
12
|
Cesar
|
Tovar
|
5
|
4
|
11
|
Dick
|
Stuart
|
3
|
4
|
6
|
Lou
|
Brock
|
5
|
12
|
4
|
Mark
|
Belanger
|
7
|
4
|
2
|
Dale
|
Mitchell
|
4
|
3
|
0
|
Jim Ray
|
Hart
|
3
|
3
|
-10
|
Al
|
Spangler
|
1
|
2
|
-26
|
Eddie
|
Mathews
|
8
|
8
|
-30
|
Dick
|
Groat
|
8
|
4
|
-47
|
Tom
|
Haller
|
4
|
3
|
-57
|
Don
|
Mincher
|
3
|
4
|
-68
|
Dolph
|
Camilli
|
2
|
6
|
-69
|
Norm
|
Cash
|
6
|
8
|
-104
|
Thurman
|
Munson
|
3
|
5
|
-107
|
Dick
|
Allen
|
3
|
8
|
-154
|
Matty
|
Alou
|
3
|
6
|
-160
|
Tony
|
Oliva
|
3
|
8
|
-161
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
268
|
216
|
3634
|
There were 268 seasons within the study in which the player had a positive streak balance, and 216 seasons in which the player had a negative streak balance. There were also three seasons (not summarized in the data above) in which a player had a streak balance of zero; those were seasons by Bill White, Thurman Munson and Dolph Camilli.
Splitting the zeroes, 55.3% of seasons showed a positive streak balance. Assuming that is a "true" measure, the random probability that a player would have 12 consecutive "positive streak seasons" is .000 825, or about 1 on 1,200. However, there are 46 players in this study. They don’t all have 12 seasons studied, but assuming they did, the chance that ONE of them would have a 12-0 split would be about 4%.